1006 Shady Ln · Jasper, AL 35503

$108,800

3 bd · 1.0 ba · 2,312 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 76 Days on market

Built 1978 1.50 ac lot $47/sqft · 69% below area

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Why this score? — see what drove the B- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +30.0/30.0
• 1% rule +10.0/10.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Schools +3.4/10.0
• Livability +3.1/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Great opportunity to own a home with solid potential! This property offers a spacious layout and is ready for your personal touches. Amazing view of pond in back yard. The property is owned by the US Dept. Of HUD. Case Number 011-949523 It is listed as IE (Insured Escrow) subject to Appraisal. Seller makes no representation or warranties as to property condition. HUD homes are ''as is''.

Key facts

• View of pond
• 1.5 acre lot
• 3 garage spots

Tags

• VIEW OF POND

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $109k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $865 ($10k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $109k).
• Recommended offer: $102k (6.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 16.4% vs local median 3.8% in Jasper — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 62/100 on livability (#228 in AL) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: employment D+, schools D, crime F.
• Jasper City (town): math 27% / reading 55% proficiency, ranked #23 of 129 in AL (top 18%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Market conditions: 109 active listings in the ZIP; 36 units permitted in Walker County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $752 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $3k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Walker County population projected at -21% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $30k cash investment doubles in ~4 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 76 days — a 6% lower offer ($102k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: flood insurance adds $56/mo.
• Climate carrying-cost: severe flood risk; major wind risk, 27% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→19/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $102,272 (6.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 76 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 6% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Built in 1978 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
3. What's the actual annual flood-insurance premium (NFIP or private), and is the property in a SFHA with mandatory coverage?
4. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
5. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
6. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
7. Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
8. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
9. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
10. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.95% ✓
• Cap rate: 16.45%
• Cash-on-cash: 36.27%
• DSCR: 2.61
• GRM: 4.3

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $224,158
• List price: $108,800
• Delta: -45.35%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 10 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
1003 Shady Ln	0.05mi	3/3.0	2,405 (+4%)	24mo	$255,000	$106	63
1108 Shady Ln	0.15mi	3/3.0	2,025 (-12%)	10mo	$292,000	$144	56
2801 Pecan Pl	0.66mi	3/3.0	2,385 (+3%)	4mo	$360,000	$151	53
1401 Rutledge Ln	0.66mi	3/2.0	2,474 (+7%)	4mo	$200,000	$81	50
511 Curry Hwy	0.67mi	3/2.0	2,277 (-2%)	15mo	$220,000	$97	50
1010 Quail Hollow Rd	0.22mi	4/3.0 (+1)	2,620 (+13%)	6mo	$260,000	$99	49
1010 Quail Rd	0.26mi	4/3.0 (+1)	2,620 (+13%)	6mo	$260,000	$99	47
2685 Rolling Dr	0.66mi	3/2.0	2,054 (-11%)	5mo	$305,000	$148	43
1301 Brakefield Dairy Rd	0.29mi	3/2.5	2,024 (-12%)	24mo	$250,000	$124	40
300 W Ridgewood Rd	0.64mi	4/3.0 (+1)	2,412 (+4%)	17mo	$224,100	$93	36

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 29.5%
• Equity multiple: 2.23×
• Total profit: $37,544
• Equity at exit: $16,222

10-year hold

• IRR: 36.8%
• Equity multiple: 4.41×
• Total profit: $103,922
• Equity at exit: $9,407

Cash invested: $30,464 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 90 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Alabama: 90 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+15
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

Right-to-evict in 7 days for non-payment; no rent control; preempted statewide; courts move quickly.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 35503

• Home prices YoY: -26.8%
• Active inventory: 109
• Price-to-rent: 4.3×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,117 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$571
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$136 /mo · $1,632/yr
• Insurance: −$45
• Flood insurance flood zone: −$56 /mo · $666/yr
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$445
• Net cashflow: $865

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,022

Max offer price $108,800

Occupancy floor 54%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $27,200
• Closing costs: $3,264
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 17 events

1. 2026-06-19
   pricedays on market $108,800 Active 76 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   days on market $122,500 Active 75 DOM
3. 2026-06-17
   days on market $122,500 Active 74 DOM
4. 2026-06-16
   days on market $122,500 Active 73 DOM
5. 2026-06-15
   days on market $122,500 Active 72 DOM
6. 2026-06-14
   days on market $122,500 Active 70 DOM
7. 2026-06-12
   days on market $122,500 Active 69 DOM
8. 2026-06-09
   days on market $122,500 Active 66 DOM
9. 2026-06-08
   days on market $122,500 Active 65 DOM
10. 2026-06-07
    days on market $122,500 Active 64 DOM
11. 2026-06-07
    days on market $122,500 Active 63 DOM
12. 2026-06-04
    days on market $122,500 Active 60 DOM
13. 2026-06-02
    days on market $122,500 Active 59 DOM
14. 2026-06-01
    days on market $122,500 Active 58 DOM
15. 2026-05-31
    days on market $122,500 Active 57 DOM
16. 2026-05-31
    days on market $122,500 Active 56 DOM
17. 2026-04-02
    listed $136,000 Active 390-char remark

    Show marketing remark (390 chars)

    Great opportunity to own a home with solid potential! This property offers a spacious layout and is ready for your personal touches. Amazing view of pond in back yard. The property is owned by the US Dept. Of HUD. Case Number 011-949523 It is listed as IE (Insured Escrow) subject to Appraisal. Seller makes no representation or warranties as to property condition. HUD homes are ''as is''.

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 8/10 Severe FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 99% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 3/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 5/10 Major 7 d/yr ≥106°F today · 19 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 6/10 Major 27% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 3/10 Moderate 3 unhealthy d/yr today · 3 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $25,408
• − Mortgage interest: −$6,094
• − Property taxes: −$1,632
• − Insurance: −$1,210
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,033
• − Management: −$2,033
• − Depreciation: −$3,165
• Taxable income: $9,241
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$2,218
• After-tax cash flow: $8,165/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Jasper City
• NCES district ID: 0101890
• Math proficiency: 27% ▼ -23.00%
• Reading proficiency: 55% ▲ 3.00%
• Median HH income: $41,476
• Composite: 34.4/100
• National rank: #5204
• State rank: #23 of 129 in AL

Livability — Jasper

• Score: 62/100
• State rank: #228
• US rank: #17152

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime F Employment D+ Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings B+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Jasper, AL
• City population: 9,927
• Population (ZIP): 9,601

Population outlook (Walker County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 61,037 people
• By 2030: 58,391 · -4.3%
• By 2040: 53,080 · -13.0%
• By 2050: 48,031 · -21.3%
• By 2075: 37,799 · -38.1%
• By 2100: 29,001 · -52.5%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (94%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 94% Two or more races 2% Black 1% Hispanic / Latino 1%
• Common ancestry: Slovak 2% Iranian 1% Scotch-Irish 1%
• Foreign-born: 0%
• Languages at home: 99% English-only · Spanish 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Walker

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+71.8) · D 13.8% · R 85.6%
• 2008→2024 swing: -25.4pp toward R · 2008: -46.4pp · 2024: -71.8pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+71.8 2020: R+67.9 2016: R+67.4 2012: R+52.9 2008: R+46.4

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -63.26%
• Current HPI: 172.9286
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.94%
• F500 in state: 4

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in AL)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Financial Services	1	$8B
▸Healthcare	1	$5B

Price history

1 event — show timeline

• 2026-04-02 Listed $136,000 Greater Alabama MLS