304 SE 10th Street Ter · Concordia, MO 64020

$200,000

3 bd · 1.0 ba · 943 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 53 Days on market

Built 1981 7,841 sqft lot $212/sqft · 47% above area Est $153k · 31% over

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Why this score? — see what drove the D grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +12.0/30.0
• Appreciation +10.0/10.0
• Schools +3.7/10.0
• DSCR +3.5/10.0
• Livability +3.4/5.0
• 1% rule +2.6/10.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• ARV discount +0.0/15.0

Listing remarks MLS

Great Starter Home. .. Super Well Maintained-Ranch house with 3 Bdrms-1Bath and 1Car Garage-Big Mature Trees in Front-Tile Entry-Nice Size Living Room-Kitchen is Galley Kitchen Style with Painted Cabinets-Hardwood Floor in Kitchen/Dining-Laundry on Main Floor in Hall Bath-Basement is "Partial Finished" Sheetrock on walls but just concrete floor-Owner has office and Family Room Down-Owner having New 12X25 Deck put on back-New Sump Pump-

Key facts

• 7,841 sq ft lot
• Garage
• Built 1981

Property features AI

Finance

• HOA & community: No association fees

Exterior

• Parking: Attached garage with garage door opener (garage faces front) — 1 car
• Utilities: Public water; Public sewer
• Home design: Single-family ranch-style home; Faces south; Living area approx. 1,056 (above grade)
• Construction: Frame construction with vinyl siding; Composition roof; Full concrete basement with sump pump
• Exterior features: Deck; Patio; Privacy wood fencing; Property not in flood plain

Interior

• Kitchen: Eat-in kitchen; Dishwasher; Disposal; Electric range; Refrigerator; Stainless steel appliances
• Bedrooms: 3 bedrooms (all on main floor; main floor primary bedroom); Main floor bedrooms with wood flooring in two bedrooms
• Flooring: Luxury vinyl; Tile; Wood
• Bathrooms: 1 full bathroom; Ceramic tile and shower-only in main bathroom
• Heating & cooling: Natural gas heating; Attic fan and electric cooling
• Interior features: Ceiling fans; Painted cabinets; Window coverings; Thermal windows; Storm door(s)
• Laundry & utility: Washer and dryer; Laundry located at bedroom level/in bathroom

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $200k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-48 ($-581/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $191k (4.3% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $151k (24.4% below list).
• Recommended offer: $151k (24.4% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 67/100 on livability (#207 in MO) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: crime A+, cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: employment C-, amenities F, commute F.
• Concordia R-II (rural): math 39% / reading 46% proficiency, ranked #109 of 324 in MO (top 34%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: Concordia Elem. (math 32% / reading 42%, grade F, #611 of 1,115 statewide, top 59%, 276 students, 37% FRL); Concordia High (math 52% / reading 52%, grade D+, #92 of 521 statewide, top 20%, 191 students, 39% FRL).
• Market conditions: 14 active listings in the ZIP; 112 units permitted in Lafayette County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $21k of equity ($1k loan paydown + $20k appreciation (10.0% local appreciation)).
• Lafayette County population projected at -21% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• At projected returns (10.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $56k cash investment doubles in ~3 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
• By year 2, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$34k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 53 days — a 3% lower offer ($194k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 2 sale attempts since 10y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Current owner paid $72k; list at $200k implies a 178% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Recommended offer $151,189 (24.4% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 53 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 24% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
5. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
6. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
7. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.76% ✗
• Cap rate: 6.00%
• Cash-on-cash: -1.04%
• DSCR: 0.95
• GRM: 11.0

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $152,802
• List price: $200,000
• Delta: 30.89%
• Verdict: OVERPRICED
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 3 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
312 S Leona St	0.70mi	3/1.0	900 (-5%)	4mo	$104,500	$116	56
511 SW 7th St	0.59mi	4/1.0 (+1)	1,024 (+9%)	0mo	$45,000	$44	53
505 S Magdalena St	0.50mi	2/2.0 (-1)	1,081 (+15%)	11mo	$189,900	$176	34

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

10.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 23.5%
• Equity multiple: 2.89×
• Total profit: $105,777
• Equity at exit: $180,176

10-year hold

• IRR: 20.9%
• Equity multiple: 6.60×
• Total profit: $313,798
• Equity at exit: $388,556

Cash invested: $56,000 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 81 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Missouri: 81 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+10
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

Generally landlord-friendly; St Louis has some habitability requirements.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 64020

• Home prices YoY: 22.2%
• Active inventory: 14
• Price-to-rent: 11.0×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,512 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,049
• Tax from tax record: −$111 /mo · $1,328/yr
• Insurance: −$83
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$317
• Net cashflow: $-48

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,573

Max offer price $191,443

Occupancy floor 98%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $65	-5% $8	+0% $-48	+5% $-105	+10% $-162
Rent	-10% $-168	-5% $-108	+0% $-48	+5% $11	+10% $71
Rate	-1.0pp $52	-0.5pp $2	base $-48	+0.5pp $-100	+1.0pp $-153

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $50,000
• Closing costs: $6,000
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 22 events

1. 2026-06-21
   days on market $200,000 Active 53 DOM
2. 2026-06-19
   days on market $200,000 Active 51 DOM
3. 2026-06-18
   days on market $200,000 Active 50 DOM
4. 2026-06-17
   days on market $200,000 Active 49 DOM
5. 2026-06-16
   days on market $200,000 Active 48 DOM
6. 2026-06-15
   days on market $200,000 Active 47 DOM
7. 2026-06-14
   days on market $200,000 Active 45 DOM
8. 2026-06-12
   days on market $200,000 Active 44 DOM
9. 2026-06-09
   days on market $200,000 Active 41 DOM
10. 2026-06-08
    days on market $200,000 Active 40 DOM
11. 2026-06-07
    pricedays on market $200,000 Active 39 DOM
12. 2026-06-03
    days on market $210,000 Active 35 DOM
13. 2026-06-02
    days on market $210,000 Active 34 DOM
14. 2026-06-01
    days on market $210,000 Active 33 DOM
15. 2026-05-31
    days on market $210,000 Active 32 DOM
16. 2026-05-30
    days on market $210,000 Active 31 DOM
17. 2026-04-29
    listed $210,000 Active 1076-char remark
18. 2016-04-05
    soldstatus
19. 2016-04-04
    soldstatus 449-char remark

    Show marketing remark (449 chars)

    Great Starter Home. .. Super Well Maintained-Ranch house with 3 Bdrms-1Bath and 1Car Garage-Big Mature Trees in Front-Tile Entry-Nice Size Living Room-Kitchen is Galley Kitchen Style with Painted Cabinets-Hardwood Floor in Kitchen/Dining-Laundry on Main Floor in Hall Bath-Basement is "Partial Finished" Sheetrock on walls but just concrete floor-Owner has office and Family Room Down-Owner having New 12X25 Deck put on back-New Sump Pump-

20. 2016-02-06
    listed $92,500 449-char remark

    Show marketing remark (449 chars)

    Great Starter Home. .. Super Well Maintained-Ranch house with 3 Bdrms-1Bath and 1Car Garage-Big Mature Trees in Front-Tile Entry-Nice Size Living Room-Kitchen is Galley Kitchen Style with Painted Cabinets-Hardwood Floor in Kitchen/Dining-Laundry on Main Floor in Hall Bath-Basement is "Partial Finished" Sheetrock on walls but just concrete floor-Owner has office and Family Room Down-Owner having New 12X25 Deck put on back-New Sump Pump-

21. 2003-02-28
    soldstatus $72,000
22. 2000-12-12
    soldstatus

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast MO · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $1,328 · $111/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $1,940 · $162/mo
• Expected delta: +$612/yr (+$51/mo · 46.1%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 2/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 4/10 Moderate 7 d/yr ≥108°F today · 17 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 2/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 1/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 0 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $18,143
• − Mortgage interest: −$11,203
• − Property taxes: −$1,328
• − Insurance: −$1,000
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,451
• − Management: −$1,451
• − Depreciation: −$5,818
• Taxable loss: −$4,110
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$986
• After-tax cash flow: $405/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Concordia R-II
• NCES district ID: 2910080
• Math proficiency: 39% ▲ 3.00%
• Reading proficiency: 46% ▬ 0.00%
• Median HH income: $54,584
• Composite: 36.98/100
• National rank: #4527
• State rank: #109 of 324 in MO

Livability — Concordia

• Score: 67/100
• State rank: #207
• US rank: #10455

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime A+ Employment C- Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Concordia, MO
• Population (ZIP): 2,928

Population outlook (Lafayette County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 31,118 people
• By 2030: 29,993 · -3.6%
• By 2040: 27,436 · -11.8%
• By 2050: 24,585 · -21.0%
• By 2075: 18,426 · -40.8%
• By 2100: 12,897 · -58.6%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (93%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 93% Hispanic / Latino 4% Two or more races 2%
• Common ancestry: Slovak 2% Serbian 1% Romanian 1%
• Foreign-born: 0%
• Languages at home: 98% English-only · Spanish 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Lafayette

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+48.9) · D 24.9% · R 73.8% · Other 1.3%
• 2008→2024 swing: -33.6pp toward R · 2008: -15.3pp · 2024: -48.9pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+48.9 2020: R+45.7 2016: R+43.8 2012: R+26.3 2008: R+15.3

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 50.33%
• Current HPI: 277.29
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 1.84%
• F500 in state: 20

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in MO)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Healthcare	1	$163B
▸Insurance	1	$21B
▸Industrial Technology	1	$17B
▸Retail	1	$16B
▸Industrial Distribution	1	$10B
▸Utilities	1	$9B

Price history

+177.8% since first listed

7 events — show timeline

• 2026-06-07 Price Changed $200,000 Heartland MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-04-29 Listed $210,000 Heartland MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2016-04-05 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records
• 2016-04-04 Sold (MLS) — Heartland MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2016-02-06 Listed $92,500 Heartland MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2003-02-28 Sold (Public Records) $72,000 Public Records
• 2000-12-12 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records

Property tax history

+5.2%/yr

Latest (2025): $1,328 · +12.8% YoY. Source: county tax records.