7323 Estrella De Mar Rd · Carlsbad, CA 92009

$499,900

1 bd · 1.0 ba · 700 sqft · Condo · 36 Days on market

Built 2007 $714/sqft · 33% below area Est $747k · 33% under $562/mo HOA · 21% of rent ↓ 21% since listing

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Why this score? — see what drove the D- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• Schools +6.5/10.0
• Appreciation +5.5/10.0
• Livability +3.9/5.0
• Rent growth +3.7/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Cash flow +1.8/30.0
• 1% rule +0.4/10.0
• DSCR +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

Own a piece of history inside the world-renowned La Costa Resort & Spa, home to two championship golf courses and the new host of the NCAA College Championship. The celebrated North Course is among Southern California’s premier golf experiences. This rare whole-ownership 1-bedroom condo offers serene lagoon views plus a flexible bonus room that can be used privately. As an owner, you’ll enjoy up to 120 days of personal use per year and the ability to generate rental income while away—through the Omni La Costa Resort program or by owner. Resort living includes: Access to multiple membership levels with training facilities, fine dining, family-friendly venues, and reso

Key facts

• Resort pools
• Flexible bonus room
• Luxury vacation home

Tags

• FLEXIBLE BONUS ROOM
• RESORT POOLS
• SPA AND WELLNESS AMENITIES
• LUXURY VACATION HOME
• PRESTIGIOUS LA COSTA COMMUNITY

Property features AI

Finance

• Other: Community contains 95 units; Zoned commercial
• HOA & community: Part of La Costa Resort Villas II HOA; Monthly HOA fee; Association amenities include spa, fire pit, barbecue and utilities

Exterior

• Utilities: Water and hot water covered by association; Trash and some utilities handled by association
• Home design: Condominium; Attached unit with 2+ common walls; Single-story; Entry at ground level
• Construction: Year built (from assessor)
• Exterior features: Community pool; Has view; Curbs in community

Interior

• Bedrooms: Primary bedroom (main level)
• Bathrooms: 1 full bathroom
• Heating & cooling: Central cooling
• Interior features: One-level home; Primary bedroom; Family room; Primary bathroom; Has fireplace (in primary bedroom and family room)
• Laundry & utility: Laundry in closet

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 1-bed/1.0-bath condo listed at $500k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-2k ($-23k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $228k (54.3% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $271k (45.8% below list).
• Recommended offer: $228k (54.3% below list) — sets the bar for cash-flow.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 78/100 on livability (#67 in CA, #2,526 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: schools A+, amenities A+, commute A+; Watch: health & safety D+, cost of living F.
• Carlsbad Unified (urban): math 68% / reading 76% proficiency, ranked #87 of 1,400 in CA (top 6%) — strong family-tenant draw, lease renewals of 3-5y typical; only 18% free/reduced lunch — higher-income household profile.
• Market conditions: Rents rising fast (+4.9%/yr); 175 active listings in the ZIP; 3 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals leasing fast (median 3d on market — plan ~1-2 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); high-income renter base; 11,759 units permitted in San Diego County in 2024 (7,244 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $8k of equity ($3k loan paydown + $5k appreciation (1.0% local appreciation)).
• San Diego County population projected at +20% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• By year 4, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$30k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 36 days — a 3% lower offer ($485k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 8 sale attempts since 19y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: HOA is 21% of rent.
• Climate carrying-cost: extreme-heat days projected 7→22/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $228,249 (54.3% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 36 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 54% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
4. Any open or pending special assessments — roof, HVAC, plumbing, elevator, façade? What's the per-unit balance and payoff schedule, and is the seller paying it off at close or rolling it to the buyer?
5. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
6. Schools are A-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
7. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
8. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
9. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
10. How much new apartment / multifamily construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply (>2% of stock underway) typically softens rents 12–24 months out; light construction supports rent growth.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.54% ✗
• Cap rate: 1.79%
• Cash-on-cash: -16.09%
• DSCR: 0.28
• GRM: 15.4

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $746,890
• List price: $499,900
• Delta: -33.07%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Projected returns pro-forma

0.97% appreciation · 4.9% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -14.9%
• Equity multiple: 0.25×
• Total profit: $-105,376
• Equity at exit: $169,787

10-year hold

• IRR: -7.3%
• Equity multiple: 0.08×
• Total profit: $-128,781
• Equity at exit: $224,961

Cash invested: $139,972 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 18 Strongly Tenant-Friendly
• State California: 18 Strongly Tenant-Friendly · D+13
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

AB1482 statewide rent cap (10% + CPI). Cities (SF/LA/Berkeley) layer stricter rules. Just-cause statewide.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 92009

• Home prices YoY: 0.2%
• Rents YoY: 4.9%
• Active inventory: 175
• Price-to-rent: 15.4×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,708 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$2,622
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$625 /mo · $7,498/yr
• Insurance: −$208
• HOA: −$562
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$569
• Net cashflow: $-1,877

Break-even live

Break-even rent $5,084

Max offer price $228,249

Occupancy floor —

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $-1,532	-5% $-1,705	+0% $-1,877	+5% $-2,050	+10% $-2,223
Rent	-10% $-2,091	-5% $-1,984	+0% $-1,877	+5% $-1,770	+10% $-1,663
Rate	-1.0pp $-1,626	-0.5pp $-1,750	base $-1,877	+0.5pp $-2,007	+1.0pp $-2,139

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $124,975
• Closing costs: $14,997
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 3 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
1386 Bello Mar Dr Encinitas, CA	1.0	1.0	440	$2,000	$4.55	3d	1	0.91mi
7556 Gibraltar St Carlsbad, CA	1.0–3.0	1.0–2.0	760	$2,695	$3.55	2d	1	1.29mi
6610 Ambrosia Ln Carlsbad, CA	1.0–3.0	1.0–2.0	995	$2,794	$2.81	2d	19	1.48mi

HOA detail condo

• Monthly dues: $562 · $6,744/yr
• Assessments: None detected in remarks — confirm with the listing agent.

Listing history 29 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $499,900 Active 36 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $499,900 Active 35 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $499,900 Active 34 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   days on market $499,900 Active 33 DOM
5. 2026-06-13
   days on market $499,900 Active 31 DOM
6. 2026-06-13
   days on market $499,900 Active 30 DOM
7. 2026-06-09
   days on market $499,900 Active 27 DOM
8. 2026-06-08
   days on market $499,900 Active 26 DOM
9. 2026-06-07
   days on market $499,900 Active 25 DOM
10. 2026-06-04
    days on market $499,900 Active 22 DOM
11. 2026-06-03
    days on market $499,900 Active 21 DOM
12. 2026-06-02
    days on market $499,900 Active 20 DOM
13. 2026-06-01
    days on market $499,900 Active 19 DOM
14. 2026-05-31
    days on market $499,900 Active 18 DOM
15. 2026-05-13
    listed $499,900 Active 1177-char remark
16. 2025-03-28
    historical $10,251
17. 2024-09-17
    listed $10,251
18. 2008-06-15
    historical
19. 2008-06-15
    historical
20. 2008-06-15
    historical
21. 2008-06-15
    historical
22. 2008-02-17
    historical
23. 2008-02-17
    historical
24. 2008-02-15
    listed $1,032,835
25. 2008-02-15
    listed $1,032,835
26. 2008-02-15
    listed $628,950
27. 2008-02-15
    listed $628,950
28. 2007-10-20
    listed $628,950
29. 2007-10-20
    listed $1,032,835

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 3/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 5/10 Major 7 d/yr ≥85°F today · 22 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 1/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 3/10 Moderate 4 unhealthy d/yr today · 4 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $32,497
• − Mortgage interest: −$28,002
• − Property taxes: −$7,498
• − Insurance: −$2,500
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,600
• − Management: −$2,600
• − HOA: −$6,744
• − Depreciation: −$14,543
• Taxable loss: −$31,989
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$7,677
• After-tax cash flow: $-14,850/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Carlsbad Unified
• NCES district ID: 0607500
• Math proficiency: 68% ▲ 2.00%
• Reading proficiency: 76% ▲ 2.00%
• Median HH income: $81,200
• Composite: 65.11/100
• National rank: #1068
• State rank: #87 of 1400 in CA

Livability — Carlsbad

• Score: 78/100
• State rank: #67
• US rank: #2526

Category grades

Amenities A+ Commute A+ Cost of living F Crime B Employment A+ Housing C+ Health & safety D+ User ratings A+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Carlsbad, CA
• County: San Diego County · 3,178,799 people
• City population: 114,373
• Metro: San Diego-Chula Vista-Carlsbad, CA
• Population (ZIP): 44,739
• Household income: $164,182
• Rent vs Own: 27.7% rent · 72.3% own
• Severe rent burden: 1152.0

Population outlook (San Diego County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 3,678,185 people
• By 2030: 3,856,546 · +4.8%
• By 2040: 4,171,407 · +13.4%
• By 2050: 4,421,607 · +20.2%
• By 2075: 4,831,599 · +31.4%
• By 2100: 4,832,502 · +31.4%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (69%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 69% Hispanic / Latino 16% Two or more races 12% Asian 9% Black 1%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 12%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 3% Italian 3% Lithuanian 2%
• Foreign-born: 14% · Canada, China, Vietnam
• Languages at home: 84% English-only · Spanish 8% Other Indo-European 3% Chinese 1%

Political lean MEDSL · San Diego

• 2024 margin: D (+16.8) · D 56.9% · R 40.1% · Other 2.9%
• 2008→2024 swing: +6.6pp toward D · 2008: 10.2pp · 2024: 16.8pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+16.8 2020: D+22.8 2016: D+17.8 2012: D+5.1 2008: D+10.2

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 0.97%
• Current HPI: 448.8771
• Rent YoY: ▲ 4.90%
• Metro: San Diego-Chula Vista-Carlsbad, CA
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.21%
• F500 in state: 116

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in CA)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Technology	27	$1,492B
▸Financial Services	3	$174B
▸Retail	3	$44B
▸Insurance	3	$26B
▸Media / Entertainment	2	$115B
▸Pharmaceuticals / Biotech	2	$62B

Price history

-20.5% since first listed

15 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-13 Listed $499,900 CRMLS
• 2025-03-28 Rental Removed $10,251 RENTLY
• 2024-09-17 Listed for Rent $10,251 RENTLY
• 2008-06-15 Listing Removed — CRMLS
• 2008-06-15 Listing Removed — SDMLS
• 2008-06-15 Listing Removed — CRMLS
• 2008-06-15 Listing Removed — SDMLS
• 2008-02-17 Listing Removed — SDMLS
• 2008-02-17 Listing Removed — SDMLS
• 2008-02-15 Listed $628,950 CRMLS
• 2008-02-15 Listed $628,950 SDMLS
• 2008-02-15 Listed $1,032,835 CRMLS
• 2008-02-15 Listed $1,032,835 SDMLS
• 2007-10-20 Listed $1,032,835 SDMLS
• 2007-10-20 Listed $628,950 SDMLS