5044 Arancia Ln · Ave Maria, FL 34142

$449,000

3 bd · 3.0 ba · 1,903 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 137 Days on market

Built 2020 Est $519k · 13% under · waterfront $162/mo HOA · 4% of rent ↓ 6% since listing

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Why this score? — see what drove the D+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• ARV discount +13.6/15.0
• Cash flow +11.5/30.0
• Schools +5.0/10.0
• Appreciation +4.5/10.0
• 1% rule +3.5/10.0
• DSCR +3.4/10.0
• Rent growth +3.2/5.0
• Livability +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0

Listing remarks

Welcome to this beautifully maintained 3-bedroom, 3-bath Cedar Model offering peaceful lake views, a spacious single-story layout, and thoughtful upgrades throughout. Built in 2020 and lovingly cared for, this home combines comfort, efficiency, and modern living, perfect for today’s families. Step inside to an open and inviting floorplan with tile flooring, a dedicated den/flex space, solar panels and a bright kitchen featuring upgraded appliances, built-in cabinetry, and both formal and casual dining areas. Impact-resistant windows and doors add peace of mind, while the whole-house reverse osmosis system ensures exceptional water quality. The living space opens to a screened lanai ov

Key facts

• Single-story layout
• Bright kitchen
• Lake views

Tags

• LAKE VIEWS
• SINGLE-STORY LAYOUT
• DEDICATED DEN FLEX SPACE
• SOLAR PANELS
• BRIGHT KITCHEN
• UPGRADED APPLIANCES

Property features AI

Finance

• HOA & community: Mandatory HOA; Monthly HOA fee of $96; Master HOA fee of $198 paid quarterly; Professional management with a manager; Community is non-gated; Community amenities include basketball, BBQ/picnic area, bike and jog paths, billiards, business center, clubhouse, community park, community pool, dog park, exercise room, pickleball, play area, restaurant, and shopping; Total annual recurring fees approximately $1,944

Exterior

• Parking: Attached 2-car garage
• Security: Impact resistant windows and doors
• Utilities: Central water; Central sewer; Cable available
• Home design: Single-family residence; One-story (ranch); Rear exposure faces southeast; Located in Ave Maria community (Maple Ridge subdivision)
• Construction: Concrete block construction; Stucco exterior; Tile roof; Built in 2020; Regular lot; deeded
• Exterior features: Lake view with waterfront on a lake; Central irrigation

Interior

• Kitchen: Range; Microwave; Dishwasher; Garbage disposal; Refrigerator; Pantry; Eat-in kitchen
• Bedrooms: 3 bedrooms plus a den
• Flooring: Tile
• Bathrooms: 3 full bathrooms; Master bath with dual sinks and a shower (no tub)
• Heating & cooling: Central electric heat; Central electric cooling
• Interior features: Foyer; Pantry; Split bedroom floor plan; Den / study; Laundry in residence; Unfurnished
• Laundry & utility: Washer; Dryer; Auto garage door; Smoke detector

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/3.0-bath single-family listed at $449k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-299 ($-4k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $396k (11.8% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $381k (15.2% below list).
• Recommended offer: $381k (15.2% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.

Location & tenants

• Location reads: area grade D — affects rentability + tenant quality, not the cash-flow math above.
• Collier (suburban): math 60% / reading 56% proficiency, ranked #16 of 73 in FL (top 22%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Zoned schools: Estates Elementary School (math 70% / reading 67%, grade B+, #409 of 2,144 statewide, top 20%, 862 students, 53% FRL); Corkscrew Middle School (math 68% / reading 59%, grade B+, #109 of 571 statewide, top 19%, 958 students, 43% FRL); Palmetto Ridge High School (math 43% / reading 51%, grade D-, #207 of 667 statewide, top 32%, 2,347 students, 38% FRL).
• Market conditions: Rents rising (+3.0%/yr); 453 active listings in the ZIP; 40 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 25d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 3,520 units permitted in Collier County in 2024 (959 in 5+ unit buildings).
• At $3,807/mo this rent would consume 73% of the median local household income ($62k/yr) (locally 1093% of renters already pay >50% of income on rent) — very limited rent-growth headroom before tenants either downsize or default.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-1.1%/yr); year-one equity from $3k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $5k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Collier County population projected at +30% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 137 days — a 12% lower offer ($395k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 2 sale attempts with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: flood insurance adds $152/mo.
• Climate carrying-cost: in FEMA flood zone AH (mandatory federal flood insurance); severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→24/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $380,717 (15.2% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 137 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 15% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. What's the actual annual flood-insurance premium (NFIP or private), and is the property in a SFHA with mandatory coverage?
4. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
5. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
6. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
7. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
8. This sits on a lake — are riparian / water-frontage rights deeded with the parcel? Any dock permits, shoreline easements, or HOA water-use restrictions?
9. What's the documented flood / surge / shoreline-erosion history here (FEMA AND non-FEMA — e.g., storm surge, creek backup, septic-field saturation)?
10. Any water-quality or seasonal algae-bloom issues that affect tenant satisfaction or short-term-rental demand?
11. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
12. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
13. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.85% ✗
• Cap rate: 5.90%
• Cash-on-cash: -1.40%
• DSCR: 0.94
• GRM: 9.8

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $518,948
• Comps found: 1

Show comp detail 1 sale within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
4432 Steinbeck Way	0.69mi	4/2.5 (+1)	1,959 (+3%)	18mo	$395,000	$202	41

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-1.05% appreciation · 2.95% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -10.0%
• Equity multiple: 0.57×
• Total profit: $-53,819
• Equity at exit: $107,345

10-year hold

• IRR: -3.1%
• Equity multiple: 0.71×
• Total profit: $-35,839
• Equity at exit: $111,837

Cash invested: $125,720 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Florida: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+3
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day pay-or-quit; preempts local rent control; landlord-friendly statutes. Court speed varies by county.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 34142

• Home prices YoY: -0.5%
• Rents YoY: 3.0%
• Active inventory: 453
• Price-to-rent: 9.8×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $3,807 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$2,355
• Tax from tax record: −$451 /mo · $5,408/yr
• Insurance: −$187
• Flood insurance flood zone: −$152 /mo · $1,824/yr
• HOA: −$162
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$800
• Net cashflow: $-299

Break-even live

Break-even rent $4,185

Max offer price $396,228

Occupancy floor —

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $-45	-5% $-172	+0% $-299	+5% $-426	+10% $-553
Rent	-10% $-599	-5% $-449	+0% $-299	+5% $-148	+10% $2
Rate	-1.0pp $-73	-0.5pp $-185	base $-299	+0.5pp $-415	+1.0pp $-533

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $112,250
• Closing costs: $13,470
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 40 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
5032 Arancia Ln Ave Maria, FL	3.0	2.0	1525	$2,595	$1.70	15d	1	0.05mi
5104 Salerno St Ave Maria, FL	4.0	3.0	2341	$5,595	$2.39	25d	1	0.22mi
5013 Florence Dr Ave Maria, FL	3.0	2.5	2256	$2,900	$1.29	25d	1	0.23mi
5039 Frattina St Ave Maria, FL	3.0	3.0	2341	$5,995	$2.56	25d	1	0.32mi
5077 Gambero Way Ave Maria, FL	4.0	3.0	2256	$3,950	$1.75	25d	1	0.32mi
5065 Gambero Way Ave Maria, FL	4.0	3.0	2557	$3,250	$1.27	23d	1	0.33mi
5285 Marano Dr Ave Maria, FL	3.0	2.5	2256	$2,600	$1.15	25d	1	0.38mi
5293 Marano Dr Ave Maria, FL	3.0	2.5	2256	$3,400	$1.51	23d	1	0.40mi
4843 Frattina St Ave Maria, FL	4.0	3.0	2588	$3,300	$1.28	25d	1	0.44mi
4919 Frattina St Ave Maria, FL	4.0	3.0	2350	$3,300	$1.40	25d	1	0.44mi
4881 Gambero Way Ave Maria, FL	3.0	2.5	2037	$2,800	$1.37	12d	1	0.49mi
4546 Battlecreek Way Ave Maria, FL	3.0	2.5	2104	$3,900	$1.85	25d	1	0.50mi
4925 Gambero Way Ave Maria, FL	2.0	2.0	1525	$4,000	$2.62	25d	1	0.51mi
5265 Messina St Ave Maria, FL	3.0	2.5	1929	$4,995	$2.59	25d	1	0.51mi
5089 Penella Ave Ave Maria, FL	3.0	2.5	2028	$2,300	$1.13	15d	1	0.52mi
4957 Gambero Way Unit 4957 Ave Maria, FL	4.0	3.0	1500	$3,400	$2.27	13d	1	0.53mi
5187 Nevola Ave Ave Maria, FL	3.0	2.5	1680	$2,700	$1.61	23d	1	0.56mi
5322 Nevola Ave Ave Maria, FL	3.0	3.0	1918	$2,700	$1.41	15d	1	0.56mi
5114 Penella Ave Ave Maria, FL	4.0	3.0	2599	$3,195	$1.23	23d	1	0.60mi
5376 Fancourt Links Way Ave Maria, FL	2.0	2.5	1850	$6,850	$3.70	23d	1	0.60mi
5522 Hampton Links Ct Ave Maria, FL	2.0	2.5	1850	$3,995	$2.16	25d	1	0.67mi
5120 Nevola Ave Ave Maria, FL	4.0	3.0	2273	$3,500	$1.54	13d	1	0.69mi
5412 Fancourt Links Way Ave Maria, FL	4.0	3.0	2247	$8,000	$3.56	23d	1	0.70mi
5545 Hampton Links Ct Ave Maria, FL	4.0	3.0	2247	$8,500	$3.78	25d	1	0.70mi
5545 Hampton Links Ct #5545 Ave Maria, FL	4.0	3.0	2400	$9,000	$3.75	25d	1	0.70mi
5538 Hampton Links Ct Ave Maria, FL	3.0	3.0	2247	$6,295	$2.80	23d	1	0.70mi
5374 Ferris Ave Ave Maria, FL	3.0	2.5	1933	$2,350	$1.22	25d	1	0.71mi
5068 Annunciation Cir #4201 Ave Maria, FL	2.0	2.0	1266	$3,400	$2.69	25d	1	0.73mi
5428 Fancourt Links Way Ave Maria, FL	3.0	3.0	2247	$7,895	$3.51	23d	1	0.74mi
5080 Annunciation Cir #1306 Ave Maria, FL	3.0	2.0	1700	$4,500	$2.65	25d	1	0.76mi
5435 Pikewood Ct Ave Maria, FL	2.0	2.5	1850	$3,695	$2.00	23d	1	0.77mi
5444 Fancourt Links Way Ave Maria, FL	3.0	3.0	2247	$3,995	$1.78	23d	1	0.78mi
5538 Useppa Dr Ave Maria, FL	2.0	2.5	1850	$10,995	$5.94	25d	1	0.78mi
5527 Double Eagle Cir Unit 3838 Ave Maria, FL	3.0	2.0	1301	$2,295	$1.76	25d	1	0.81mi
5583 Double Eagle Cir Ave Maria, FL	2.0	2.0	1239	$2,495	$2.01	25d	1	0.81mi
5445 Double Eagle Cir Ave Maria, FL	2.0	2.0	1355	$2,995	$2.21	25d	1	0.81mi
5427 Double Eagle Cir #2822 Ave Maria, FL	2.0	2.0	1355	$5,795	$4.28	25d	1	0.81mi
5427 Double Eagle Cir #2815 Ave Maria, FL	2.0	2.0	1400	$2,700	$1.93	25d	1	0.81mi
5427 Double Eagle Cir #2825 Ave Maria, FL	2.0	2.0	1355	$6,295	$4.65	25d	1	0.81mi
5427 Double Eagle Cir #2826 Ave Maria, FL	2.0	2.0	1569	$6,495	$4.14	25d	1	0.81mi

HOA detail

• Monthly dues: $162 · $1,944/yr
• Likely covers: water

Listing history 18 events

1. 2026-06-21
   days on market $449,000 Active 137 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   days on market $449,000 Active 134 DOM
3. 2026-06-17
   days on market $449,000 Active 133 DOM
4. 2026-06-16
   days on market $449,000 Active 132 DOM
5. 2026-06-15
   days on market $449,000 Active 131 DOM
6. 2026-06-14
   days on market $449,000 Active 129 DOM
7. 2026-06-10
   days on market $449,000 Active 126 DOM
8. 2026-06-09
   days on market $449,000 Active 125 DOM
9. 2026-06-08
   days on market $449,000 Active 124 DOM
10. 2026-06-07
    days on market $449,000 Active 123 DOM
11. 2026-06-03
    days on market $449,000 Active 119 DOM
12. 2026-06-02
    days on market $449,000 Active 118 DOM
13. 2026-06-01
    days on market $449,000 Active 117 DOM
14. 2026-05-31
    days on market $449,000 Active 116 DOM
15. 2026-05-30
    days on market $449,000 Active 115 DOM
16. 2026-02-04
    listed $449,000 Active
17. 2025-12-31
    historical
18. 2025-08-01
    listed $479,000 Active

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast FL · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $5,408 · $451/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $5,408 · $451/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone AH · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 3/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 9/10 Extreme 7 d/yr ≥111°F today · 24 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 10/10 Extreme 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 1 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $45,686
• − Mortgage interest: −$25,151
• − Property taxes: −$5,408
• − Insurance: −$4,070
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$3,655
• − Management: −$3,655
• − HOA: −$1,944
• − Depreciation: −$13,062
• Taxable loss: −$11,258
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$2,702
• After-tax cash flow: $-883/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Collier
• NCES district ID: 1200330
• Math proficiency: 60% ▼ -4.00%
• Reading proficiency: 56% ▼ -2.00%
• Median HH income: $58,275
• Composite: 50.23/100
• National rank: #1892
• State rank: #16 of 73 in FL

Livability — Ave Maria

No livability data for this city. (Only ~50 U.S. cities are tracked.)

Census & demographics

• Census place: Ave Maria, FL
• County: Collier County · 396,295 people
• Metro: Naples-Marco Island, FL
• Population (ZIP): 35,149
• Household income: $62,333
• Rent vs Own: 48.7% rent · 51.3% own
• Severe rent burden: 1093.0

Population outlook (Collier County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 420,858 people
• By 2030: 450,054 · +6.9%
• By 2040: 502,232 · +19.3%
• By 2050: 544,932 · +29.5%
• By 2075: 627,203 · +49.0%
• By 2100: 659,015 · +56.6%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Majority Hispanic (63%)
• Race & ethnicity: Hispanic / Latino 63% Two or more races 39% Black 19% White 16% Native American 7%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 43% Puerto Rican 3% Cuban 2% Dominican 1%
• Common ancestry: Hispanic 8% Slovak 1% Serbian 1%
• Foreign-born: 32% · Canada, Jamaica
• Languages at home: 34% English-only · Spanish 53% French/Haitian/Cajun 12%

Political lean MEDSL · Collier

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+33.1) · D 33.1% · R 66.2%
• 2008→2024 swing: -10.6pp toward R · 2008: -22.5pp · 2024: -33.1pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+33.1 2020: R+24.7 2016: R+26.0 2012: R+30.1 2008: R+22.5

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -1.05%
• Current HPI: 226.9105
• Rent YoY: ▲ 2.95%
• Metro: Naples-Marco Island, FL
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.28%
• F500 in state: 36

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in FL)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Industrial Technology	2	$29B
▸Insurance	2	$17B
▸Retail	1	$60B
▸Technology Distribution	1	$58B
▸Homebuilding	1	$35B
▸Technology Manufacturing	1	$35B

Price history

-6.3% since first listed

3 events — show timeline

• 2026-02-04 Listed $449,000 NAPLESMLS
• 2025-12-31 Listing Removed — NAPLESMLS
• 2025-08-01 Listed $479,000 NAPLESMLS

Property tax history

+12.4%/yr

Latest (2025): $5,408 · +7.2% YoY. Source: county tax records.