609 Lufkin Cir · Fayetteville, NC 28311

$106,000

3 bd · 3.0 ba · 1,926 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 9 Days on market

Built 1981 0.39 ac lot

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Why this score? — see what drove the B grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +30.0/30.0
• 1% rule +10.0/10.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Livability +3.8/5.0
• Rent growth +3.2/5.0
• Schools +3.1/10.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Opportunity is knocking at 609 Lufkin Circle! This 3-bedroom home in the established Hillendale neighborhood is ready for a complete transformation and offers incredible potential for investors, flippers, or buyers looking to create their dream home from the ground up. Featuring a covered front porch, screened porch for relaxing outdoor space, and a 2-car garage, the property has the footprint and features buyers are searching for. Inside, the home will require full renovation and is being sold as-is, making it the perfect project for those with vision and creativity. Conveniently located in Fayetteville with easy access to shopping, dining, and major routes, this is your chance to bring new life to a property with strong upside potential. Bring your contractor, your imagination, and see the possibilities!

Key facts

• Covered front porch
• Screened porch
• Full renovation

Tags

• COVERED FRONT PORCH
• SCREENED PORCH
• FULL RENOVATION

Property features AI

Exterior

• Parking: Attached garage; 2 garage spaces; 2 total parking spaces; Concrete parking surfaces
• Utilities: Public water; Sewer connected; Water connected
• Home design: Single family residence; Two-story home; Entry level: 1
• Construction: Wood siding and frame construction; Composition roof
• Exterior features: Screened patio/porch; Front porch; Rear porch; Back yard fencing; Has a view

Interior

• Bedrooms: 5 total rooms (includes bedrooms and living spaces)
• Flooring: Carpet; Vinyl
• Bathrooms: 3 full bathrooms
• Heating & cooling: Heat pump heating; Electric heating; Heat pump cooling
• Interior features: Other interior features; Crawl space basement
• Laundry & utility: Dedicated laundry room

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/3.0-bath single-family listed at $106k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $518 ($6k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $106k).
• Cap rate 12.2% vs local median 4.9% in Fayetteville — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 75/100 on livability (#45 in NC, #4,031 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: commute A+, cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: crime F, employment D-.
• Cumberland County Schools (urban): math 32% / reading 41% proficiency, ranked #126 of 178 in NC (top 71%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: Warrenwood Elementary (math 12% / reading 17%, grade F, #1,331 of 1,410 statewide, top 96%, 389 students, 99% FRL); Luther Nick Jeralds Middle (math 13% / reading 24%, grade F, #436 of 475 statewide, top 93%, 616 students, 100% FRL); E E Smith High (math 42% / reading 41%, grade F, #381 of 535 statewide, top 72%, 1,004 students, 99% FRL) — zoned schools average 99% FRL vs 55% district-wide (45 pts higher); higher-poverty schools than district average — tighter screening recommended.
• Market conditions: Rents rising (+2.8%/yr); 360 active listings in the ZIP; 20 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 23d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 1,125 units permitted in Cumberland County in 2024 (104 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 34% of the median local income ($62k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $733 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $3k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 2.8% rent growth), your $30k cash investment doubles in ~6 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• Only 9 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.
• 3 sale attempts since 10y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: property tax is 2.9% of price.
• Climate carrying-cost: major wind risk, 76% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→16/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $106,000

Questions for the listing agent

1. Property tax is high relative to price — has the assessment been appealed recently, and will the sale trigger a re-assessment?
2. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
3. Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
4. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
5. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
6. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.64% ✓
• Cap rate: 12.16%
• Cash-on-cash: 20.95%
• DSCR: 1.93
• GRM: 5.1

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $260,010
• Comps found: 12

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
3252 Barksdale Rd	0.38mi	3/2.0	1,802 (-6%)	1mo	$224,000	$124	67
3824 Clearwater Dr	0.46mi	3/2.0	1,990 (+3%)	4mo	$315,000	$158	66
3524 Kelburn Dr	0.63mi	3/2.0	1,894 (-2%)	2mo	$255,000	$135	62
1132 Landau Rd	0.61mi	3/2.0	1,836 (-5%)	3mo	$230,000	$125	57
3520 Gables Dr	0.66mi	3/2.5	1,854 (-4%)	5mo	$269,000	$145	56
3721 Clearwater Dr	0.37mi	4/2.0 (+1)	2,116 (+10%)	2mo	$205,000	$97	55
741 Southview Cir	0.46mi	3/2.0	2,135 (+11%)	3mo	$288,000	$135	53
3905 Clearwater Dr	0.50mi	3/2.0	1,675 (-13%)	2mo	$211,000	$126	49
487 Greywalls Ct	0.61mi	3/2.0	2,109 (+10%)	3mo	$302,000	$143	49
727 Ashburton Dr	0.49mi	4/3.0 (+1)	2,173 (+13%)	4mo	$274,900	$127	47
705 Chadwick Rd	0.47mi	4/3.0 (+1)	2,200 (+14%)	4mo	$280,000	$127	46
3538 Gables Dr	0.71mi	3/2.5	1,701 (-12%)	3mo	$263,000	$155	43

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 2.82% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 13.2%
• Equity multiple: 1.53×
• Total profit: $15,621
• Equity at exit: $15,805

10-year hold

• IRR: 22.0%
• Equity multiple: 2.86×
• Total profit: $55,241
• Equity at exit: $9,165

Cash invested: $29,680 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 85 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State North Carolina: 85 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+3
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

10-day notice; preempted; landlord-favorable but court speed varies.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 28311

• Home prices YoY: -18.4%
• Rents YoY: 2.8%
• Active inventory: 360
• Price-to-rent: 5.1×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,744 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$556
• Tax from tax record: −$259 /mo · $3,109/yr
• Insurance: −$44
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$366
• Net cashflow: $518

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,087

Max offer price $106,000

Occupancy floor 65%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $26,500
• Closing costs: $3,180
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 20 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
3523 Rosehill Rd Fayetteville, NC	4.0	1.0	1448	$1,450	$1.00	13d	1	0.13mi
3446 Sandystone Cir Fayetteville, NC	3.0	2.5	1489	$1,700	$1.14	23d	1	0.36mi
3519 Rolls Ave Fayetteville, NC	3.0	2.0	1625	$1,700	$1.05	13d	1	0.45mi
715 Ashburton Dr Fayetteville, NC	3.0	2.0	1278	$1,600	$1.25	23d	1	0.45mi
3517 Gowan Ln Fayetteville, NC	3.0	2.5	1792	$1,750	$0.98	23d	1	0.61mi
3611 Tindall Ct Fayetteville, NC	3.0	2.0	1813	$2,300	$1.27	13d	1	0.63mi
3613 Pine Lake Dr Fayetteville, NC	1.0–3.0	1.0–2.0	1116	$1,645	$1.47	13d	31	0.64mi
3963 Loufield Dr Fayetteville, NC	3.0	2.0	1446	$1,500	$1.04	23d	1	0.67mi
632 Bromsworth Trl Fayetteville, NC	3.0	2.5	2597	$2,500	$0.96	21d	1	0.71mi
1641 Mount Rainer Dr Fayetteville, NC	3.0	2.5	2000	$1,950	$0.97	13d	1	0.77mi
1645 Mount Rainer Dr Fayetteville, NC	4.0	2.5	2130	$2,100	$0.99	23d	1	0.78mi
1659 Rock Creek Ln Fayetteville, NC	4.0	2.5	1777	$2,100	$1.18	13d	1	0.86mi
4016 Bankside Dr Fayetteville, NC	3.0	2.5	1846	$1,800	$0.98	13d	1	0.90mi
3557 Hastings Dr Fayetteville, NC	4.0	2.5	1652	$1,795	$1.09	23d	1	0.94mi
2532 Sourwood Dr Fayetteville, NC	4.0	2.0	1562	$1,700	$1.09	23d	1	0.95mi
2523 Mulranny Dr Fayetteville, NC	1.0–3.0	1.0–2.0	1112	$1,589	$1.43	13d	9	1.29mi
1216 Superior Pointe Pl Fayetteville, NC	3.0	2.5	1288	$1,450	$1.13	23d	1	1.29mi
2641 McArthur Landing Cir Fayetteville, NC	3.0	2.0	1450	$1,500	$1.03	23d	1	1.46mi
2641 McArthur Landing Cir #102 Fayetteville, NC	3.0	2.0	1400	$1,375	$0.98	23d	1	1.46mi
2641 McArthur Landing Cir Fayetteville, NC	3.0	2.0	1450	$1,400	$0.97	21d	1	1.46mi

Listing history 8 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $106,000 Active 9 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $106,000 Active 8 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $106,000 Active 7 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   days on market $106,000 Active 6 DOM
5. 2026-06-14
   days on market $106,000 Active 4 DOM
6. 2026-06-13
   days on market $106,000 Active 3 DOM
7. 2026-06-10
   remarks 699-char remark
8. 2026-06-10
   listed $106,000 Active 1 DOM

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast NC · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $3,109 · $259/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $3,109 · $259/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 3/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 7/10 Severe 7 d/yr ≥106°F today · 16 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 7/10 Severe 76% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 1 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $20,922
• − Mortgage interest: −$5,938
• − Property taxes: −$3,109
• − Insurance: −$530
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,674
• − Management: −$1,674
• − Depreciation: −$3,084
• Taxable income: $4,915
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$1,179
• After-tax cash flow: $5,040/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Cumberland County Schools
• NCES district ID: 3700011
• Math proficiency: 32% ▼ -2.00%
• Reading proficiency: 41% ▼ -1.00%
• Median HH income: $44,168
• Composite: 31.0/100
• National rank: #6096
• State rank: #126 of 178 in NC

Livability — Fayetteville

• Score: 75/100
• State rank: #45
• US rank: #4031

Category grades

Amenities B- Commute A+ Cost of living A+ Crime F Employment D- Housing A+ Health & safety A+ User ratings F

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Fayetteville, NC
• County: Cumberland County · 265,314 people
• City population: 226,118
• Metro: Fayetteville, NC
• Population (ZIP): 36,629
• Household income: $62,170
• Rent vs Own: 47.5% rent · 52.5% own
• Severe rent burden: 1645.0

Population outlook (Cumberland County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 330,855 people
• By 2030: 333,523 · +0.8%
• By 2040: 335,583 · +1.4%
• By 2050: 335,325 · +1.4%
• By 2075: 342,853 · +3.6%
• By 2100: 340,698 · +3.0%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.67)
• Race & ethnicity: Black 42% White 38% Hispanic / Latino 9% Two or more races 8% Asian 3% Native American 1%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 3% Puerto Rican 4%
• Common ancestry: Slovak 1% Lithuanian 1% Italian 1%
• Foreign-born: 7% · Canada, South Korea, Jamaica
• Languages at home: 89% English-only · Spanish 6% German/W. Germanic 1% Other Indo-European 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Cumberland

• 2024 margin: D (+13.4) · D 56.1% · R 42.7% · Other 1.2%
• 2008→2024 swing: -4.3pp toward R · 2008: 17.7pp · 2024: 13.4pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+13.4 2020: D+16.6 2016: D+16.0 2012: D+19.7 2008: D+17.7

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -45.88%
• Current HPI: 203.0731
• Rent YoY: ▲ 2.82%
• Metro: Fayetteville, NC
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.28%
• F500 in state: 26

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in NC)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Financial Services	2	$213B
▸Retail	2	$95B
▸Industrial Conglomerate	1	$38B
▸Metals / Steel	1	$35B
▸Utilities	1	$30B
▸Industrial Machinery	1	$19B

Price history

+17.8% since first listed

7 events — show timeline

• 2026-06-09 Listed $106,000 LPRMLS
• 2026-06-09 Listed $106,000 Hive MLS
• 2017-04-01 Listing Removed — TMLS
• 2016-11-01 Listed $125,000 TMLS
• 1993-10-18 Sold (Public Records) $112,000 Public Records
• 1987-07-23 Sold (Public Records) $103,900 Public Records
• 1984-06-01 Sold (Public Records) $90,000 Public Records

Property tax history

+3.3%/yr

Latest (2025): $3,109 · +25.8% YoY. Source: county tax records.