284 Lake Frst · Canyon Lake, TX 78133

$224,900

3 bd · 1.0 ba · 1,275 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 53 Days on market

Built 1967 8,276 sqft lot $176/sqft · 23% below area Est $292k · 23% under $6/mo HOA

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Why this score? — see what drove the C- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +16.3/30.0
• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• Schools +5.2/10.0
• DSCR +5.0/10.0
• 1% rule +3.9/10.0
• Livability +3.4/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Rent growth +2.2/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Hidden Gem Overlooking Canyon Lake and the beautiful Texas Hill Country! Walk through the gate of the fully fenced front and back yard down the stacked stone pathway to the brand-new, fully covered front patio and carport. From the front door the view of Canyon Lake and the stunning Hill Country fill the room. Open the sliding glass door to the oversized and partially covered deck where morning coffee just tastes better and the shaded evening breeze makes you thankful for the day. The interior of the home is light and airy featuring 2 large bedrooms and 1 full bath off of the open living and kitchen area as well as a large flex space or 3rd bedroom with separate entry to the covered patio. The kitchen is equipped with a recently installed cooktop and oven range, dishwasher, freshly-painted cabinets, and TONS of storage! With views from almost every single room you will feel like you are living on vacation! Schedule your showing today!

Key facts

• Oversized back deck
• Covered patio
• Canyon lake views

Tags

• CANYON LAKE VIEWS
• TEXAS HILL COUNTRY VIEWS
• COVERED PATIO
• OVERSIZED BACK DECK

Property features AI

Finance

• HOA & community: Member of Lake Forest POA with $75 annual fee covering common area maintenance; Community amenities include barbecue areas, clubhouse, playground, park, pool, sport courts and tennis courts

Exterior

• Parking: Carport (total 4 parking spaces)
• Utilities: Electricity connected; Propane available; Public water; Septic tank
• Home design: Single-story home; Southwest-facing; Slab foundation; Resale property
• Construction: Built per public records; Asbestos construction material; Composition roof
• Exterior features: Rain gutters; Rear covered porch; Deck; Patio; Porch; Attached guest house; Full perimeter chain-link fencing with backyard access; Level lot with views; Has view

Interior

• Kitchen: Refrigerator
• Bedrooms: 3 main-level bedrooms
• Flooring: Linoleum; Tile; Carpet-free
• Bathrooms: 1 full bathroom
• Heating & cooling: Central heating (propane); Central air conditioning
• Interior features: Ceiling fans; Kitchen island; Main level primary; Blinds
• Laundry & utility: Stacked washer and dryer inside (see remarks)

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $225k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $123 ($1k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $199k (11.4% below list).
• Recommended offer: $199k (11.4% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 6.9% vs local median 2.2% in Canyon Lake — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 67/100 on livability (#534 in TX) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: employment A+, housing A+, cost of living A; Watch: amenities F, commute F, health & safety F.
• Comal ISD (rural): math 57% / reading 59% proficiency, ranked #58 of 826 in TX (top 7%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Zoned schools: Startzville El (math 42% / reading 52%, grade D-, #1,006 of 4,322 statewide, top 25%, 465 students, 68% FRL); Mt Valley Middle (math 55% / reading 51%, grade C+, #281 of 1,662 statewide, top 18%, 808 students, 49% FRL); Canyon Lake H S (math 46% / reading 56%, grade D+, #482 of 1,632 statewide, top 30%, 1,038 students, 37% FRL) — zoned schools average 51% FRL vs 31% district-wide (21 pts higher); higher-poverty schools than district average — tighter screening recommended.
• Market conditions: Rents soft (-1.2%/yr); 1029 active listings in the ZIP; 19 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 19d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); solid renter incomes; 3,420 units permitted in Comal County in 2024 (1,164 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $7k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Comal County population projected at +70% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 53 days — a 3% lower offer ($218k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 4 sale attempts since 19y ago; this cycle's ask has dropped $14k (6%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: major wind risk, 76% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 6→18/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $199,288 (11.4% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 53 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 11% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Built in 1967 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
3. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
6. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
7. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.89% ✗
• Cap rate: 6.95%
• Cash-on-cash: 2.34%
• DSCR: 1.10
• GRM: 9.4

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $292,166
• List price: $224,900
• Delta: -23.02%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
2319 Westview	0.18mi	3/2.0	1,316 (+3%)	2mo	$280,000	$213	81
209 Lake Forest Frst	0.08mi	3/2.0	1,344 (+5%)	6mo	$329,000	$245	78
3084 Rustler	0.07mi	2/2.5 (-1)	1,289 (+1%)	10mo	$265,000	$206	76
1548 Valley Frst	0.36mi	3/2.0	1,312 (+3%)	1mo	$255,000	$194	74
1420 Canyon Bnd	0.43mi	3/2.0	1,294 (+2%)	5mo	$267,700	$207	70
606 Hillclimb	0.08mi	3/2.0	1,406 (+10%)	11mo	$225,000	$160	66
2549 Grandview	0.26mi	3/2.0	1,447 (+14%)	3mo	$319,000	$220	59
1813 Trailridge Dr	0.16mi	3/2.0	1,098 (-14%)	14mo	$198,500	$181	54
1127 Eastview Dr	0.60mi	2/2.0 (-1)	1,181 (-7%)	3mo	$170,000	$144	48
1291 Springwater	0.59mi	2/2.0 (-1)	1,401 (+10%)	1mo	$309,000	$221	47
1016 Eastview Dr	0.71mi	3/2.0	1,370 (+8%)	15mo	$305,000	$223	38
1154 Springwater	0.73mi	2/2.0 (-1)	1,096 (-14%)	9mo	$280,000	$255	26

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 0.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -15.8%
• Equity multiple: 0.45×
• Total profit: $-34,484
• Equity at exit: $33,533

10-year hold

• IRR: -13.3%
• Equity multiple: 0.32×
• Total profit: $-42,648
• Equity at exit: $19,445

Cash invested: $62,972 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 78133

• Home prices YoY: -33.8%
• Rents YoY: -1.2%
• Active inventory: 1029
• Price-to-rent: 9.4×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,993 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,179
• Tax from tax record: −$172 /mo · $2,067/yr
• Insurance: −$94
• HOA: −$6
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$419
• Net cashflow: $123

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,837

Max offer price $224,900

Occupancy floor 89%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $250	-5% $187	+0% $123	+5% $59	+10% $-4
Rent	-10% $-34	-5% $44	+0% $123	+5% $202	+10% $280
Rate	-1.0pp $236	-0.5pp $180	base $123	+0.5pp $65	+1.0pp $5

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $56,225
• Closing costs: $6,747
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 19 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
662 Hillclimb Canyon Lake, TX	3.0	1.5	1345	$1,950	$1.45	45d	1	0.06mi
520 Lake Frst Canyon Lake, TX	3.0	3.0	1606	$2,900	$1.81	0d	1	0.25mi
1618 Valley Frst Canyon Lake, TX	3.0	2.0	1317	$1,700	$1.29	19d	1	0.31mi
1618 Valley Frst Canyon Lake, TX	3.0	2.0	1317	$1,700	$1.29	45d	1	0.31mi
1475 Bonnyview Dr Canyon Lake, TX	3.0	2.0	1320	$1,800	$1.36	25d	1	0.53mi
421 Watts Ln Unit B4 Canyon Lake, TX	2.0	2.5	1309	$1,250	$0.95	25d	1	0.72mi
421 Watts Ln Canyon Lake, TX	2.0	2.5	1309	$1,450	$1.11	12d	1	0.72mi
440 Watts Ln Canyon Lake, TX	2.0	2.0	1005	$1,550	$1.54	0d	1	0.74mi
612 Mockingbird Dr Canyon Lake, TX	3.0	2.0	1420	$1,950	$1.37	12d	1	0.93mi
4348 Morningside Way Canyon Lake, TX	2.0	2.0	1166	$1,550	$1.33	21d	1	1.04mi
2676 Woodcrest Dr Canyon Lake, TX	3.0	2.0	1180	$2,100	$1.78	45d	1	1.10mi
705 Firefly Dr Unit 1365728P Canyon Lake, TX	3.0	2.0	1819	$4,080	$2.24	0d	1	1.22mi
1569 Comfort Unit Na Canyon Lake, TX	3.0	2.0	1200	$1,950	$1.62	16d	1	1.28mi
1569 Comfort Canyon Lake, TX	3.0	2.0	1200	$1,950	$1.62	19d	1	1.28mi
693 Riviera Dr Canyon Lake, TX	3.0	2.0	1776	$2,995	$1.69	45d	1	1.34mi
1104 Blueridge Dr Canyon Lake, TX	2.0	2.0	1250	$1,700	$1.36	45d	1	1.37mi
311 Cindy Dr Canyon Lake, TX	3.0	2.0	1332	$1,600	$1.20	0d	1	1.42mi
1198 Green Hill Dr Canyon Lake, TX	3.0	2.0	1207	$1,775	$1.47	6d	1	1.44mi
1235 Green Hill Dr Canyon Lake, TX	3.0	2.0	1326	$1,800	$1.36	45d	1	1.47mi

HOA detail

• Monthly dues: $6 · $72/yr

Listing history 31 events

1. 2026-06-21
   days on market $224,900 Active 53 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   price $224,900 Active 50 DOM

   Show marketing remark (955 chars)

   Hidden Gem Overlooking Canyon Lake and the beautiful Texas Hill Country! Walk through the gate of the fully fenced front and back yard down the stacked stone pathway to the brand-new, fully covered front patio and carport. From the front door the view of Canyon Lake and the stunning Hill Country fill the room. Open the sliding glass door to the oversized and partially covered deck where morning coffee just tastes better and the shaded evening breeze makes you thankful for the day. The interior of the home is light and airy featuring 2 large bedrooms and 1 full bath off of the open living and kitchen area as well as a large flex space or 3rd bedroom with separate entry to the covered patio. The kitchen is equipped with a recently installed cooktop and oven range, dishwasher, freshly-painted cabinets, and TONS of storage! With views from almost every single room you will feel like you are living on vacation! Schedule your showing today!

3. 2026-06-18
   days on market $239,000 Active 50 DOM

   Show marketing remark (955 chars)

   Hidden Gem Overlooking Canyon Lake and the beautiful Texas Hill Country! Walk through the gate of the fully fenced front and back yard down the stacked stone pathway to the brand-new, fully covered front patio and carport. From the front door the view of Canyon Lake and the stunning Hill Country fill the room. Open the sliding glass door to the oversized and partially covered deck where morning coffee just tastes better and the shaded evening breeze makes you thankful for the day. The interior of the home is light and airy featuring 2 large bedrooms and 1 full bath off of the open living and kitchen area as well as a large flex space or 3rd bedroom with separate entry to the covered patio. The kitchen is equipped with a recently installed cooktop and oven range, dishwasher, freshly-painted cabinets, and TONS of storage! With views from almost every single room you will feel like you are living on vacation! Schedule your showing today!

4. 2026-06-17
   days on market $239,000 Active 49 DOM
5. 2026-06-16
   days on market $239,000 Active 48 DOM
6. 2026-06-15
   days on market $239,000 Active 47 DOM
7. 2026-06-13
   days on market $239,000 Active 45 DOM
8. 2026-06-09
   days on market $239,000 Active 41 DOM
9. 2026-06-08
   days on market $239,000 Active 40 DOM
10. 2026-06-07
    days on market $239,000 Active 39 DOM
11. 2026-06-04
    days on market $239,000 Active 36 DOM
12. 2026-06-03
    days on market $239,000 Active 35 DOM
13. 2026-06-02
    days on market $239,000 Active 34 DOM
14. 2026-06-01
    days on market $239,000 Active 33 DOM
15. 2026-05-31
    days on market $239,000 Active 32 DOM
16. 2026-04-30
    listed $239,000 Active 955-char remark

    Show marketing remark (955 chars)

    Hidden Gem Overlooking Canyon Lake and the beautiful Texas Hill Country! Walk through the gate of the fully fenced front and back yard down the stacked stone pathway to the brand-new, fully covered front patio and carport. From the front door the view of Canyon Lake and the stunning Hill Country fill the room. Open the sliding glass door to the oversized and partially covered deck where morning coffee just tastes better and the shaded evening breeze makes you thankful for the day. The interior of the home is light and airy featuring 2 large bedrooms and 1 full bath off of the open living and kitchen area as well as a large flex space or 3rd bedroom with separate entry to the covered patio. The kitchen is equipped with a recently installed cooktop and oven range, dishwasher, freshly-painted cabinets, and TONS of storage! With views from almost every single room you will feel like you are living on vacation! Schedule your showing today!

17. 2025-12-31
    historical
18. 2025-12-31
    historical
19. 2025-11-07
    price $259,311
20. 2025-11-06
    price $259,311
21. 2025-08-06
    price $275,000
22. 2025-08-06
    price $275,000
23. 2025-06-10
    price $282,500
24. 2025-06-09
    price $282,500
25. 2025-05-22
    listed $288,800 New
26. 2025-05-22
    listed $288,800 Active
27. 2007-07-30
    soldstatus
28. 2007-07-27
    soldstatus
29. 2007-07-02
    historical
30. 2007-05-23
    listed $110,000
31. 2002-06-06
    soldstatus

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast TX · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $2,067 · $172/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $4,116 · $343/mo
• Expected delta: +$2,048/yr (+$171/mo · 99.1%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 4/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 7/10 Severe 6 d/yr ≥107°F today · 18 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 6/10 Major 76% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 1 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $23,915
• − Mortgage interest: −$12,598
• − Property taxes: −$2,067
• − Insurance: −$1,124
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,913
• − Management: −$1,913
• − HOA: −$72
• − Depreciation: −$6,543
• Taxable loss: −$2,316
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$556
• After-tax cash flow: $2,032/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Comal ISD
• NCES district ID: 4814730
• Math proficiency: 57% ▼ -9.00%
• Reading proficiency: 59% ▼ -2.00%
• Median HH income: $74,792
• Composite: 51.79/100
• National rank: #1671
• State rank: #58 of 826 in TX

Livability — Canyon Lake

• Score: 67/100
• State rank: #534
• US rank: #10441

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A Crime A- Employment A+ Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings A+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Canyon Lake, TX
• County: Comal County · 206,262 people
• City population: 42,159
• Metro: San Antonio-New Braunfels, TX
• Population (ZIP): 21,959
• Household income: $83,853
• Rent vs Own: 15.2% rent · 84.8% own
• Severe rent burden: 402.0

Population outlook (Comal County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 175,637 people
• By 2030: 199,911 · +13.8%
• By 2040: 249,436 · +42.0%
• By 2050: 299,430 · +70.5%
• By 2075: 423,857 · +141.3%
• By 2100: 512,048 · +191.5%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (74%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 74% Hispanic / Latino 20% Two or more races 10% Black 2%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 15%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 3% Romanian 3% Italian 3%
• Foreign-born: 4% · Canada
• Languages at home: 91% English-only · Spanish 7%

Political lean MEDSL · Comal

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+45.5) · D 26.8% · R 72.2%
• 2008→2024 swing: +1.9pp toward D · 2008: -47.4pp · 2024: -45.5pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+45.5 2020: R+42.7 2016: R+50.1 2012: R+54.1 2008: R+47.4

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -111.36%
• Current HPI: 218.4633
• Rent YoY: ▼ -1.20%
• Metro: San Antonio-New Braunfels, TX
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Price history

+104.5% since first listed

18 events — show timeline

• 2026-06-18 Price Changed $224,900 Unlock MLS
• 2026-06-18 Price Changed $224,900 CTXMLS
• 2026-04-30 Listed $239,000 CTXMLS
• 2025-12-31 Listing Removed — LERA
• 2025-12-31 Listing Removed — CTXMLS
• 2025-11-07 Price Changed $259,311 LERA
• 2025-11-06 Price Changed $259,311 CTXMLS
• 2025-08-06 Price Changed $275,000 LERA
• 2025-08-06 Price Changed $275,000 CTXMLS
• 2025-06-10 Price Changed $282,500 LERA
• 2025-06-09 Price Changed $282,500 CTXMLS
• 2025-05-22 Listed $288,800 LERA
• 2025-05-22 Listed $288,800 CTXMLS
• 2007-07-30 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records
• 2007-07-27 Sold (MLS) — LERA
• 2007-07-02 Listing Removed — LERA
• 2007-05-23 Listed $110,000 LERA
• 2002-06-06 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records

Property tax history

+0.4%/yr

Latest (2026): $2,067 · -13.1% YoY. Source: county tax records.