509 S 11th St · Rocky Ford, CO 81067

$80,000

2 bd · 1.0 ba · 882 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 16 Days on market

Built 1946 4,748 sqft lot Est $115k · 30% under

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Why this score? — see what drove the B- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +26.8/30.0
• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• DSCR +9.2/10.0
• 1% rule +5.9/10.0
• Livability +3.9/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Schools +2.4/10.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

If you snooze, you'll loose! It doesn't matter if you're an investor or first time home buyer, this two bedroom, ranch style home is a great opportunity. This home is full of charm and character featuring hardwood floors, a 50's style kitchen, large mission style windows, and don't forget the covered picnic area in the back yard. Some cosmetic repairs may be needed but the low-maintenance stucco exterior and extra room the basement offers are a bonus. Don't stub your toe on your way to view this property or you'll miss out! Property Ref #AF1HC.

Key facts

• New vanity
• Arched doorways
• Updated bathroom

Tags

• ARCHED DOORWAYS
• UPDATED BATHROOM
• NEW VANITY
• NEW TOILET
• FEW BLOCKS FROM PARKS
• FEW BLOCKS FROM DOWNTOWN

Property features AI

Finance

• HOA & community: No association amenities

Exterior

• Parking: No garage; detached carport
• Utilities: Public water; Public sewer
• Home design: Single-family residential
• Construction: Frame and stucco construction; Composition roof
• Exterior features: Covered patio/porch; Wood fencing; Shed(s) on the property; Irregular-shaped lot

Interior

• Kitchen: Refrigerator included
• Bedrooms: 2 main-level bedrooms
• Flooring: Hardwood and wood floors
• Bathrooms: 1 full bathroom on the main level
• Heating & cooling: Natural gas forced-air heating; No cooling system
• Interior features: Master bedroom on main floor; Unfinished full basement with storage space
• Laundry & utility: Laundry located in the basement

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $80k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $220 ($3k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($873 rent vs $80k).
• Recommended offer: $79k (1.5% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 9.6% vs local median 4.6% in Rocky Ford — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 78/100 on livability (#22 in CO, #2,671 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: crime A+, cost of living A+, health & safety A+; Watch: amenities D+, schools F, employment F.
• Rocky Ford School District No. R2 (town): math 24% / reading 36% proficiency, ranked #58 of 86 in CO (top 67%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases; 67% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Market conditions: 41 active listings in the ZIP; 11 units permitted in Otero County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $553 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $2k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Otero County population projected at -17% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $22k cash investment doubles in ~10 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 16 days — a 2% lower offer ($79k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 2 sale attempts since 16y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Current owner paid $26k; list at $80k implies a 208% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: built in 1946 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.
• Climate carrying-cost: major wildfire risk — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $78,800 (1.5% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. Built in 1946 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
2. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
3. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
4. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
5. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
6. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.09% ✓
• Cap rate: 9.59%
• Cash-on-cash: 11.78%
• DSCR: 1.52
• GRM: 7.6

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $114,660
• Comps found: 12

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
712 S 12 St	0.18mi	2/1.0	864 (-2%)	18mo	$122,000	$141	73
818 S Main St	0.28mi	2/1.0	824 (-7%)	5mo	$157,000	$191	72
702 S 9th St	0.24mi	2/1.0	836 (-5%)	13mo	$100,000	$120	69
1203 Maple Ave	0.18mi	3/1.0 (+1)	998 (+13%)	2mo	$42,500	$43	63
510 Chestnut Ave	0.64mi	2/1.0	884 (+0%)	14mo	$120,000	$136	58
502 14th St	0.26mi	1/— (-1)	776 (-12%)	12mo	$16,000	$21	53
702 N 12th St	0.59mi	3/1.0 (+1)	999 (+13%)	4mo	$130,000	$130	42
410 N 4th St	0.72mi	3/1.0 (+1)	969 (+10%)	7mo	$44,900	$46	40
410 S 3rd St	0.63mi	2/1.0	956 (+8%)	20mo	$75,000	$78	39
703 N 13th St	0.61mi	2/1.0	1,008 (+14%)	14mo	$58,000	$58	36
719 N 12th St	0.64mi	3/1.0 (+1)	988 (+12%)	12mo	$175,000	$177	35
503 Elm Ave	0.59mi	3/2.0 (+1)	955 (+8%)	20mo	$127,000	$133	33

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 1.2%
• Equity multiple: 1.05×
• Total profit: $1,009
• Equity at exit: $11,928

10-year hold

• IRR: 10.8%
• Equity multiple: 1.84×
• Total profit: $18,765
• Equity at exit: $6,917

Cash invested: $22,400 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 38 Tenant-Leaning
• State Colorado: 38 Tenant-Leaning · D+4
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

2023 reforms: 10-day cure, mandated notice, source-of-income protected. Courts backlogged in Denver.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 81067

• Home prices YoY: -25.2%
• Active inventory: 41
• Price-to-rent: 7.6×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $873 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$420
• Tax from tax record: −$17 /mo · $199/yr
• Insurance: −$33
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$183
• Net cashflow: $220

Break-even live

Break-even rent $594

Max offer price $80,000

Occupancy floor 70%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $265	-5% $243	+0% $220	+5% $197	+10% $175
Rent	-10% $151	-5% $186	+0% $220	+5% $254	+10% $289
Rate	-1.0pp $260	-0.5pp $240	base $220	+0.5pp $199	+1.0pp $178

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $20,000
• Closing costs: $2,400
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 12 events

1. 2026-06-21
   days on market $80,000 Active 16 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   days on market $80,000 Active 14 DOM
3. 2026-06-17
   days on market $80,000 Active 13 DOM
4. 2026-06-16
   days on market $80,000 Active 12 DOM
5. 2026-06-15
   days on market $80,000 Active 11 DOM
6. 2026-06-13
   days on market $80,000 Active 9 DOM
7. 2026-06-12
   days on market $80,000 Active 8 DOM
8. 2026-06-09
   days on market $80,000 Active 5 DOM
9. 2026-06-08
   days on market $80,000 Active 4 DOM
10. 2026-06-07
    days on market $80,000 Active 3 DOM
11. 2026-06-07
    remarks 681-char remark
12. 2026-06-07
    listed $80,000 Active 2 DOM

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast CO · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $199 · $17/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $440 · $37/mo
• Expected delta: +$241/yr (+$20/mo · 121.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 6/10 Major
• 🌡 Heat 4/10 Moderate 7 d/yr ≥98°F today · 20 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 1 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $10,472
• − Mortgage interest: −$4,481
• − Property taxes: −$199
• − Insurance: −$400
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$838
• − Management: −$838
• − Depreciation: −$2,327
• Taxable income: $1,389
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$333
• After-tax cash flow: $2,306/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Rocky Ford School District No. R2
• NCES district ID: 0806270
• Math proficiency: 24% ▲ 2.00%
• Reading proficiency: 36% ▼ -3.00%
• Median HH income: $31,077
• Composite: 24.35/100
• National rank: #7694
• State rank: #58 of 86 in CO

Livability — Rocky Ford

• Score: 78/100
• State rank: #22
• US rank: #2671

Category grades

Amenities D+ Commute B Cost of living A+ Crime A+ Employment F Housing A- Health & safety A+ User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Rocky Ford, CO
• Population (ZIP): 5,590

Population outlook (Otero County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 17,363 people
• By 2030: 16,776 · -3.4%
• By 2040: 15,534 · -10.5%
• By 2050: 14,467 · -16.7%
• By 2075: 12,054 · -30.6%
• By 2100: 9,392 · -45.9%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Majority Hispanic (56%)
• Race & ethnicity: Hispanic / Latino 56% White 40% Two or more races 22%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 45%
• Common ancestry: Iranian 1% Italian 1% Slovak 1%
• Foreign-born: 4% · Canada, South Korea
• Languages at home: 82% English-only · Spanish 17%

Political lean MEDSL · Otero

• 2024 margin: Strong R (+26.4) · D 35.5% · R 61.9% · Other 2.7%
• 2008→2024 swing: -15.9pp toward R · 2008: -10.5pp · 2024: -26.4pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+26.4 2020: R+22.5 2016: R+25.2 2012: R+9.3 2008: R+10.5

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -72.32%
• Current HPI: 214.2931
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 1.95%
• F500 in state: 14

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in CO)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Technology Distribution	1	$31B
▸Food / Agriculture	1	$18B
▸Packaging	1	$14B
▸Healthcare	1	$13B
▸Energy	1	$10B
▸Technology	1	$4B

Price history

+186.7% since first listed

3 events — show timeline

• 2026-06-04 Listed $80,000 PARMLS
• 2011-03-10 Sold (MLS) $26,000 PARMLS
• 2010-11-12 Listed $27,900 PARMLS

Property tax history

-3.9%/yr

Latest (2025): $199 · +310.1% YoY. Source: county tax records.