8165 Celeste Dr #2228 · Lely Resort, FL 34113

$390,000

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,640 sqft · Condo public records · 38 Days on market

Built 2003 $717/mo HOA · 12% of rent

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Why this score? — see what drove the B grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +29.9/30.0
• 1% rule +10.0/10.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Schools +5.0/10.0
• Rent growth +3.9/5.0
• Livability +3.1/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Finally a 2nd floor end unit! Enjoy the scenic golf course and preserve views from the quiet of your lanai. This beautifully furnished home is set in the desirable community of Flamingo Fairways. Nestled in the heart of Lely Resort you are conveniently located only minutes away from downtown Naples to the west and Marco Island to the south. This home is on the semi-private Flamingo Golf Course. In addition to the Flamingo course there is another semi private course, the Mustang and the private course the Classics. The award winning Players Club is an optional membership!

Key facts

• Large soaking tub
• Large bright kitchen
• Large dining area

Tags

• LARGE BRIGHT KITCHEN
• OPEN CONCEPT GREAT ROOM
• VAULTED CEILINGS
• LARGE DINING AREA
• ENSUITE BATHROOM
• LARGE SOAKING TUB

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath condo listed at $390k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $1k ($17k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($6k rent vs $390k).
• Recommended offer: $378k (3.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 61/100 on livability (#786 in FL) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: crime A+, employment A-; Watch: health & safety D, schools F, amenities F.
• Collier (suburban): math 60% / reading 56% proficiency, ranked #16 of 73 in FL (top 22%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Market conditions: Rents rising fast (+5.6%/yr); 597 active listings in the ZIP; 40 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 24d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); solid renter incomes; 3,520 units permitted in Collier County in 2024 (959 in 5+ unit buildings).
• At $6,018/mo this rent would consume 88% of the median local household income ($82k/yr) (locally 954% of renters already pay >50% of income on rent) — very limited rent-growth headroom before tenants either downsize or default.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $3k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $12k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Collier County population projected at +30% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 5.6% rent growth), your $109k cash investment doubles in ~7 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 38 days — a 3% lower offer ($378k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 4 sale attempts since 16y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Current owner paid $235k; list at $390k implies a 66% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: flood insurance adds $66/mo.
• Climate carrying-cost: major flood risk; severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→31/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $378,300 (3.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 38 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 3% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. What's the actual annual flood-insurance premium (NFIP or private), and is the property in a SFHA with mandatory coverage?
3. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
4. Any open or pending special assessments — roof, HVAC, plumbing, elevator, façade? What's the per-unit balance and payoff schedule, and is the seller paying it off at close or rolling it to the buyer?
5. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
6. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
7. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
8. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
9. How much new apartment / multifamily construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply (>2% of stock underway) typically softens rents 12–24 months out; light construction supports rent growth.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.54% ✓
• Cap rate: 10.74%
• Cash-on-cash: 15.89%
• DSCR: 1.71
• GRM: 5.4

CMA / ARV

No comps found within radius.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 5.59% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 9.3%
• Equity multiple: 1.38×
• Total profit: $41,244
• Equity at exit: $58,150

10-year hold

• IRR: 20.9%
• Equity multiple: 3.02×
• Total profit: $220,716
• Equity at exit: $33,720

Cash invested: $109,200 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Florida: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+3
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day pay-or-quit; preempts local rent control; landlord-friendly statutes. Court speed varies by county.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 34113

• Rents YoY: 5.6%
• Active inventory: 597
• Price-to-rent: 5.4×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $6,018 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$2,045
• Tax from tax record: −$384 /mo · $4,608/yr
• Insurance: −$162
• Flood insurance flood zone: −$66 /mo · $798/yr
• HOA: −$717
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$1,264
• Net cashflow: $1,379

Break-even live

Break-even rent $4,272

Max offer price $390,000

Occupancy floor 72%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $97,500
• Closing costs: $11,700
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 40 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
8175 Celeste Dr #1230 Naples, FL	2.0	2.0	1476	$2,775	$1.88	23d	1	0.01mi
8175 Celeste Dr #1229 Naples, FL	3.0	2.0	1640	$2,975	$1.81	23d	1	0.01mi
8175 Celeste Dr Naples, FL	2.0	2.0	1460	$2,395	$1.64	23d	1	0.01mi
8135 Celeste Dr #4218 Naples, FL	2.0	2.0	1476	$7,500	$5.08	23d	1	0.02mi
9025 Alturas St #3102 Naples, FL	2.0	3.0	1531	$3,400	$2.22	23d	1	0.04mi
8986 Cambria Cir #2204 Naples, FL	3.0	2.0	1771	$7,500	$4.23	23d	1	0.08mi
8986 Cambria Cir Unit 22 Naples, FL	2.0	2.0	1404	$6,000	$4.27	23d	1	0.08mi
8519 Chase Preserve Dr Naples, FL	2.0	2.0	1827	$9,000	$4.93	23d	1	0.10mi
9054 Capistrano St N #4003 Naples, FL	2.0	2.0	1385	$2,495	$1.80	23d	1	0.11mi
9054 Capistrano St N #4002 Naples, FL	3.0	2.0	1674	$6,000	$3.58	23d	1	0.11mi
8125 Celeste Dr #5113 Naples, FL	3.0	2.0	1635	$7,000	$4.28	23d	1	0.13mi
8125 Celeste Dr #5216 Naples, FL	3.0	2.0	1640	$4,500	$2.74	23d	1	0.13mi
8989 Cambria Cir #1807 Naples, FL	3.0	2.5	2008	$7,000	$3.49	14d	1	0.14mi
8965 Malibu Ln #802 Naples, FL	3.0	2.0	1771	$6,595	$3.72	23d	1	0.17mi
8992 Cambria Cir Unit 1546062P Naples, FL	3.0	2.0	2002	$3,097	$1.55	14d	1	0.18mi
9082 Capistrano St N Unit 48-5 Naples, FL	2.0	2.0	1227	$6,500	$5.30	23d	1	0.18mi
9066 Albion Ln N Unit 51-1 Naples, FL	3.0	2.5	1989	$7,000	$3.52	23d	1	0.21mi
9066 Albion Ln N #5106 Naples, FL	3.0	2.5	1715	$6,500	$3.79	21d	1	0.21mi
9071 Albion Ln N #5706 Naples, FL	2.0	2.5	1441	$2,200	$1.53	23d	1	0.22mi
9073 Rialto St #6002 Naples, FL	3.0	2.0	1771	$7,500	$4.23	23d	1	0.23mi
8085 Celeste Dr #812 Naples, FL	2.0	2.0	1480	$6,000	$4.05	14d	1	0.24mi
8949 Malibu St #304 Naples, FL	3.0	2.0	1771	$6,500	$3.67	23d	1	0.27mi
9072 Rialto St #6302 Naples, FL	3.0	2.0	1771	$8,250	$4.66	21d	1	0.27mi
9076 Rialto St Unit 62 Naples, FL	3.0	2.5	1624	$7,500	$4.62	23d	1	0.27mi
9081 Albion Ln S #6505 Naples, FL	2.0	2.0	1225	$7,500	$6.12	23d	1	0.28mi
9081 Albion Ln S #6510 Naples, FL	3.0	2.5	2004	$6,280	$3.13	14d	1	0.28mi
8065 Tiger Cv #1604 Naples, FL	2.0	2.0	1203	$2,495	$2.07	21d	1	0.30mi
8065 Tiger Cv Naples, FL	2.0	2.0	1203	$2,495	$2.07	23d	1	0.30mi
9102 Capistrano St S Unit 72-3 Naples, FL	2.0	2.5	1520	$6,500	$4.28	23d	1	0.33mi
8055 Tiger Cv Unit 6-606 Naples, FL	2.0	2.0	1439	$1,800	$1.25	23d	1	0.34mi
9088 Chula Vista St Unit 108-3 Naples, FL	2.0	2.0	1404	$5,700	$4.06	23d	1	0.36mi
9109 Yuba Ln Unit 80 Naples, FL	3.0	2.5	1729	$3,900	$2.26	23d	1	0.37mi
9092 Chula Vista St #11003 Naples, FL	2.0	2.0	1404	$6,850	$4.88	23d	1	0.37mi
8073 Panther Trl #1404 Naples, FL	2.0	2.0	1450	$5,500	$3.79	23d	1	0.39mi
9102 Chula Vista St #11302 Naples, FL	2.0	2.5	1531	$2,695	$1.76	21d	1	0.40mi
9115 Capistrano St S #8207 Naples, FL	2.0	2.5	1494	$6,000	$4.02	23d	1	0.41mi
9111 Capistrano St S #8303 Naples, FL	2.0	2.5	1432	$7,500	$5.24	23d	1	0.41mi
8419 Benelli Ct Naples, FL	3.0	2.0	1900	$3,300	$1.74	23d	1	0.44mi
8693 Querce Ct Naples, FL	2.0	2.0	1415	$5,000	$3.53	23d	1	0.45mi
9118 Chula Vista St #12002 Naples, FL	2.0	2.5	1531	$4,200	$2.74	23d	1	0.46mi

HOA detail condo

• Monthly dues: $717 · $8,604/yr
• Assessments: None detected in remarks — confirm with the listing agent.

Listing history 13 events

1. 2026-02-28
   status Pending
2. 2026-02-14
   price $390,000
3. 2026-01-20
   listed $410,000 Active
4. 2014-12-02
   soldstatus $235,000
5. 2014-11-26
   soldstatus $235,000 577-char remark

   Show marketing remark (577 chars)

   Finally a 2nd floor end unit! Enjoy the scenic golf course and preserve views from the quiet of your lanai. This beautifully furnished home is set in the desirable community of Flamingo Fairways. Nestled in the heart of Lely Resort you are conveniently located only minutes away from downtown Naples to the west and Marco Island to the south. This home is on the semi-private Flamingo Golf Course. In addition to the Flamingo course there is another semi private course, the Mustang and the private course the Classics. The award winning Players Club is an optional membership!

6. 2014-11-26
   price $245,000 577-char remark

   Show marketing remark (577 chars)

   Finally a 2nd floor end unit! Enjoy the scenic golf course and preserve views from the quiet of your lanai. This beautifully furnished home is set in the desirable community of Flamingo Fairways. Nestled in the heart of Lely Resort you are conveniently located only minutes away from downtown Naples to the west and Marco Island to the south. This home is on the semi-private Flamingo Golf Course. In addition to the Flamingo course there is another semi private course, the Mustang and the private course the Classics. The award winning Players Club is an optional membership!

7. 2014-10-21
   listed $235,000 577-char remark

   Show marketing remark (577 chars)

   Finally a 2nd floor end unit! Enjoy the scenic golf course and preserve views from the quiet of your lanai. This beautifully furnished home is set in the desirable community of Flamingo Fairways. Nestled in the heart of Lely Resort you are conveniently located only minutes away from downtown Naples to the west and Marco Island to the south. This home is on the semi-private Flamingo Golf Course. In addition to the Flamingo course there is another semi private course, the Mustang and the private course the Classics. The award winning Players Club is an optional membership!

8. 2011-03-10
   soldstatus $211,000
9. 2011-03-04
   soldstatus $211,000 387-char remark

   Show marketing remark (387 chars)

   -Meticulously maintained and Tommy Bahama style furnished condo on the second floor. Serene views of the golf course and a peak of the lake from the large, screened balcony. This end unit offers three bedrooms and two large bathrooms, spacious living/dining area and a cute breakfast area off the kitchen. Plenty of cabinets, storage and large walk-in closets plus a large one car garage

10. 2011-03-04
    soldstatus $211,000

    Show marketing remark (387 chars)

    -Meticulously maintained and Tommy Bahama style furnished condo on the second floor. Serene views of the golf course and a peak of the lake from the large, screened balcony. This end unit offers three bedrooms and two large bathrooms, spacious living/dining area and a cute breakfast area off the kitchen. Plenty of cabinets, storage and large walk-in closets plus a large one car garage

11. 2010-06-19
    listed $219,900
12. 2010-06-17
    listed $219,900 387-char remark

    Show marketing remark (387 chars)

    -Meticulously maintained and Tommy Bahama style furnished condo on the second floor. Serene views of the golf course and a peak of the lake from the large, screened balcony. This end unit offers three bedrooms and two large bathrooms, spacious living/dining area and a cute breakfast area off the kitchen. Plenty of cabinets, storage and large walk-in closets plus a large one car garage

13. 2003-09-17
    soldstatus $232,400

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast FL · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $4,608 · $384/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $4,608 · $384/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 7/10 Severe FEMA zone X (shaded) · 76% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 4/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 10/10 Extreme 7 d/yr ≥108°F today · 31 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 10/10 Extreme 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 2 unhealthy d/yr today · 2 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $72,219
• − Mortgage interest: −$21,846
• − Property taxes: −$4,608
• − Insurance: −$2,748
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$5,778
• − Management: −$5,778
• − HOA: −$8,604
• − Depreciation: −$11,345
• Taxable income: $11,513
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$2,763
• After-tax cash flow: $13,788/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Collier
• NCES district ID: 1200330
• Math proficiency: 60% ▼ -4.00%
• Reading proficiency: 56% ▼ -2.00%
• Median HH income: $58,275
• Composite: 50.23/100
• National rank: #1892
• State rank: #16 of 73 in FL

Livability — Lely Resort

• Score: 61/100
• State rank: #786
• US rank: #17981

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living F Crime A+ Employment A- Housing D- Health & safety D User ratings A+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Lely Resort, FL
• County: Collier County · 396,295 people
• Metro: Naples-Marco Island, FL
• Population (ZIP): 26,056
• Household income: $81,674
• Rent vs Own: 26.7% rent · 73.3% own
• Severe rent burden: 954.0

Population outlook (Collier County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 420,858 people
• By 2030: 450,054 · +6.9%
• By 2040: 502,232 · +19.3%
• By 2050: 544,932 · +29.5%
• By 2075: 627,203 · +49.0%
• By 2100: 659,015 · +56.6%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.59)
• Race & ethnicity: White 56% Hispanic / Latino 28% Black 12% Two or more races 11% Asian 2%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 17% Puerto Rican 3% Cuban 2%
• Common ancestry: Hispanic 10% Romanian 3% Lithuanian 2%
• Foreign-born: 26% · Canada, Jamaica, Vietnam
• Languages at home: 63% English-only · Spanish 24% French/Haitian/Cajun 9% Other Indo-European 2%

Political lean MEDSL · Collier

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+33.1) · D 33.1% · R 66.2%
• 2008→2024 swing: -10.6pp toward R · 2008: -22.5pp · 2024: -33.1pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+33.1 2020: R+24.7 2016: R+26.0 2012: R+30.1 2008: R+22.5

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -194.86%
• Current HPI: 279.4232
• Rent YoY: ▲ 5.59%
• Metro: Naples-Marco Island, FL
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.28%
• F500 in state: 36

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in FL)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Industrial Technology	2	$29B
▸Insurance	2	$17B
▸Retail	1	$60B
▸Technology Distribution	1	$58B
▸Homebuilding	1	$35B
▸Technology Manufacturing	1	$35B

Price history

+67.8% since first listed

13 events — show timeline

• 2026-02-28 Pending — NAPLESMLS
• 2026-02-14 Price Changed $390,000 NAPLESMLS
• 2026-01-20 Listed $410,000 NAPLESMLS
• 2014-12-02 Sold (Public Records) $235,000 Public Records
• 2014-11-26 Price Changed $245,000 NAPLESMLS
• 2014-11-26 Sold (MLS) $235,000 NAPLESMLS
• 2014-10-21 Listed $235,000 NAPLESMLS
• 2011-03-10 Sold (Public Records) $211,000 Public Records
• 2011-03-04 Sold (MLS) $211,000 NAPLESMLS
• 2011-03-04 Sold (MLS) $211,000 MIML
• 2010-06-19 Listed $219,900 NAPLESMLS
• 2010-06-17 Listed $219,900 MIML
• 2003-09-17 Sold (Public Records) $232,400 Public Records

Property tax history

+7.3%/yr

Latest (2025): $4,608 · +10.1% YoY. Source: county tax records.