560 Terrace Ave · Moss Beach, CA 94038

$1,196,000

3 bd · 2.5 ba · 1,520 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 6 Days on market

Built 1978 6,793 sqft lot $787/sqft · 15% below area Est $1411k · 15% under

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Why this score? — see what drove the D grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• ARV discount +14.4/15.0
• Cash flow +7.2/30.0
• Appreciation +5.8/10.0
• Schools +4.3/10.0
• Livability +3.5/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• DSCR +1.4/10.0
• 1% rule +1.1/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Coastal living meets everyday convenience in this beautifully positioned 3-bedroom, 2.5-bath home tucked away on a quiet, level street in a friendly neighborhood. Thoughtfully designed for comfort and flexibility, the home features a desirable ground-floor primary suite with ensuite bath for ease of living and added privacy. Upstairs are two additional bedrooms and a full bathroom. The living area flows seamlessly to an inviting patio, ideal for outdoor dining, entertaining or relaxing in the fresh coastal air. An oversized, fully fenced yard with wide side access offers space for RV or boat parking - a rare coastal find. Established fruit trees and expansive outdoor space create a peaceful, private setting to enjoy year-round. Ideally located within walking distance to the post office, local market, and Moss Beach Park with pickleball court and a playground. Enjoy easy access to scenic mountain trails for hiking, biking, and horseback riding, plus nearby Fitzgerald Marine Reserve with its stunning coastline and tide pools. Perfect for first-time buyers or those looking to downsize without compromise, this home blends comfort, practicality, and coastal charm.

Key facts

• Inviting patio
• Fully fenced yard
• 6,793 sq ft lot

Tags

• GROUND-FLOOR PRIMARY SUITE
• INVITING PATIO
• FULLY FENCED YARD
• SPACE FOR RV OR BOAT PARKING
• ESTABLISHED FRUIT TREES
• EXPANSIVE OUTDOOR SPACE

Property features AI

Finance

• Other: Level, pie-shaped lot; Zoning: R100S7

Exterior

• Parking: Off-street parking; Room for oversized vehicle; 2-car garage
• Utilities: Public water; Public sewer; Public utilities
• Home design: Detached property; 2 stories
• Construction: Wood frame construction; Concrete slab foundation; Composition, shingle, and tar-and-gravel roofing; Built as detached (year built not provided)
• Exterior features: Backyard with gazebo; Fenced back yard with gate

Interior

• Kitchen: Electric cooktop; Electric oven; Dishwasher; Microwave
• Bedrooms: Primary bedroom on ground floor; 3 bedrooms total
• Flooring: Carpet; Tile; Vinyl / linoleum
• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms; 1 half bathroom; Full and half baths on ground floor
• Heating & cooling: Baseboard heating
• Interior features: Separate family room; Dining area; Has fireplace in family room
• Laundry & utility: Laundry area on upper floor

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.5-bath single-family listed at $1.20M.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-2k ($-20k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $906k (24.3% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $735k (38.6% below list).
• Recommended offer: $735k (38.6% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 69/100 on livability (#252 in CA) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: crime A+, commute A+, employment A+; Watch: amenities F, cost of living F, health & safety F.
• Cabrillo Unified (town): math 34% / reading 48% proficiency, ranked #498 of 1,400 in CA (top 36%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: Farallone View Elementary (164 students, 15% FRL); Manuel F. Cunha Intermediate (584 students, 41% FRL); Half Moon Bay High (1,024 students, 32% FRL).
• Market conditions: 19 active listings in the ZIP; 2 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; 1,019 units permitted in San Mateo County in 2024 (484 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $26k of equity ($8k loan paydown + $18k appreciation (1.5% local appreciation)).
• San Mateo County population projected at +24% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• By year 3, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$68k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Negotiation context

• Only 6 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.
• 2 sale attempts with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Current owner paid $230k; list at $1.20M implies a 420% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Recommended offer $734,942 (38.6% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. Built in 1978 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
5. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.61% ✗
• Cap rate: 4.64%
• Cash-on-cash: -5.89%
• DSCR: 0.74
• GRM: 13.6

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $1,410,764
• List price: $1,196,000
• Delta: -15.22%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 7 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
560 Terrace Ave	0.00mi	3/2.5	1,520 (0%)	0mo	$1,200,000	$789	100
430 Marine Blvd	0.22mi	3/2.0	1,490 (-2%)	8mo	$1,508,000	$1,012	78
855 Sierra St	0.28mi	4/2.0 (+1)	1,460 (-4%)	5mo	$1,178,000	$807	69
890 Kelmore St	0.20mi	4/3.0 (+1)	1,537 (+1%)	21mo	$1,595,000	$1,038	65
355 Nevada Ave	0.33mi	3/2.0	1,440 (-5%)	17mo	$2,300,000	$1,597	59
852 Linda Vista St	0.39mi	3/2.0	1,620 (+7%)	19mo	$1,050,000	$648	53
816 Park Ave	0.59mi	3/2.0	1,360 (-10%)	10mo	$1,390,000	$1,022	45

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

1.51% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -3.0%
• Equity multiple: 0.84×
• Total profit: $-52,502
• Equity at exit: $440,361

10-year hold

• IRR: 1.9%
• Equity multiple: 1.24×
• Total profit: $80,493
• Equity at exit: $610,851

Cash invested: $334,880 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 18 Strongly Tenant-Friendly
• State California: 18 Strongly Tenant-Friendly · D+13
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

AB1482 statewide rent cap (10% + CPI). Cities (SF/LA/Berkeley) layer stricter rules. Just-cause statewide.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 94038

• Home prices YoY: 0.5%
• Active inventory: 19
• Price-to-rent: 13.6×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $7,349 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$6,272
• Tax from tax record: −$678 /mo · $8,140/yr
• Insurance: −$498
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$1,543
• Net cashflow: $-1,643

Break-even live

Break-even rent $9,429

Max offer price $905,825

Occupancy floor —

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $-966	-5% $-1,304	+0% $-1,643	+5% $-1,981	+10% $-2,320
Rent	-10% $-2,223	-5% $-1,933	+0% $-1,643	+5% $-1,352	+10% $-1,062
Rate	-1.0pp $-1,040	-0.5pp $-1,338	base $-1,643	+0.5pp $-1,953	+1.0pp $-2,268

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $299,000
• Closing costs: $35,880
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 2 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
8711 Cabrillo Hwy Montara, CA	3.0	2.0	2000	$8,500	$4.25	4d	1	0.92mi
350 6th St Unit Main house Montara, CA	3.0	2.5	2150	$5,900	$2.74	23d	1	1.08mi

Listing history 5 events

1. 2026-06-18
   statuslisting id $1,196,000 Pending 6 DOM
2. 2026-05-14
   listed $1,196,000 Active 1177-char remark

   Show marketing remark (1177 chars)

   Coastal living meets everyday convenience in this beautifully positioned 3-bedroom, 2.5-bath home tucked away on a quiet, level street in a friendly neighborhood. Thoughtfully designed for comfort and flexibility, the home features a desirable ground-floor primary suite with ensuite bath for ease of living and added privacy. Upstairs are two additional bedrooms and a full bathroom. The living area flows seamlessly to an inviting patio, ideal for outdoor dining, entertaining or relaxing in the fresh coastal air. An oversized, fully fenced yard with wide side access offers space for RV or boat parking - a rare coastal find. Established fruit trees and expansive outdoor space create a peaceful, private setting to enjoy year-round. Ideally located within walking distance to the post office, local market, and Moss Beach Park with pickleball court and a playground. Enjoy easy access to scenic mountain trails for hiking, biking, and horseback riding, plus nearby Fitzgerald Marine Reserve with its stunning coastline and tide pools. Perfect for first-time buyers or those looking to downsize without compromise, this home blends comfort, practicality, and coastal charm.

3. 2026-05-14
   listed $1,196,000 Active 1177-char remark

   Show marketing remark (1177 chars)

   Coastal living meets everyday convenience in this beautifully positioned 3-bedroom, 2.5-bath home tucked away on a quiet, level street in a friendly neighborhood. Thoughtfully designed for comfort and flexibility, the home features a desirable ground-floor primary suite with ensuite bath for ease of living and added privacy. Upstairs are two additional bedrooms and a full bathroom. The living area flows seamlessly to an inviting patio, ideal for outdoor dining, entertaining or relaxing in the fresh coastal air. An oversized, fully fenced yard with wide side access offers space for RV or boat parking - a rare coastal find. Established fruit trees and expansive outdoor space create a peaceful, private setting to enjoy year-round. Ideally located within walking distance to the post office, local market, and Moss Beach Park with pickleball court and a playground. Enjoy easy access to scenic mountain trails for hiking, biking, and horseback riding, plus nearby Fitzgerald Marine Reserve with its stunning coastline and tide pools. Perfect for first-time buyers or those looking to downsize without compromise, this home blends comfort, practicality, and coastal charm.

4. 1998-09-01
   soldstatus $230,000
5. 1987-12-10
   soldstatus $180,000

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast CA · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $8,140 · $678/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $9,090 · $757/mo
• Expected delta: +$949/yr (+$79/mo · 11.7%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 3/10 Moderate FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 20% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 3/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 1/10 Low 7 d/yr ≥78°F today · 16 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 1/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 7/10 Severe 12 unhealthy d/yr today · 12 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $88,193
• − Mortgage interest: −$66,995
• − Property taxes: −$8,140
• − Insurance: −$5,980
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$7,055
• − Management: −$7,055
• − Depreciation: −$34,793
• Taxable loss: −$41,826
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$10,038
• After-tax cash flow: $-9,673/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Cabrillo Unified
• NCES district ID: 0606780
• Math proficiency: 34% ▼ -3.00%
• Reading proficiency: 48% ▼ -2.00%
• Median HH income: $105,943
• Composite: 43.02/100
• National rank: #6651
• State rank: #498 of 1400 in CA

Livability — Moss Beach

• Score: 69/100
• State rank: #252
• US rank: #8334

Category grades

Amenities F Commute A+ Cost of living F Crime A+ Employment A+ Housing C+ Health & safety F User ratings A+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Moss Beach, CA
• Population (ZIP): 3,016

Population outlook (San Mateo County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 864,008 people
• By 2030: 910,523 · +5.4%
• By 2040: 997,285 · +15.4%
• By 2050: 1,071,189 · +24.0%
• By 2075: 1,197,206 · +38.6%
• By 2100: 1,192,523 · +38.0%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.56)
• Race & ethnicity: White 59% Hispanic / Latino 30% Two or more races 9% Asian 5%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 29%
• Common ancestry: Iranian 2% Russian 2% Slovak 2%
• Foreign-born: 25% · Canada, China
• Languages at home: 69% English-only · Spanish 27% Other Indo-European 2% French/Haitian/Cajun 1%

Political lean MEDSL · San Mateo

• 2024 margin: Solid D (+50.3) · D 73.5% · R 23.2% · Other 3.3%
• 2008→2024 swing: +1.6pp toward D · 2008: 48.7pp · 2024: 50.3pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+50.3 2020: D+57.7 2016: D+57.7 2012: D+44.8 2008: D+48.7

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 1.51%
• Current HPI: 290.6584
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.21%
• F500 in state: 116

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in CA)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Technology	27	$1,492B
▸Financial Services	3	$174B
▸Retail	3	$44B
▸Insurance	3	$26B
▸Media / Entertainment	2	$115B
▸Pharmaceuticals / Biotech	2	$62B

Price history

+564.4% since first listed

6 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-21 Pending — bridgeMLS, Bay East AOR, or Contra Costa AOR
• 2026-05-20 Pending — MLSListings
• 2026-05-14 Listed $1,196,000 MLSListings
• 2026-05-14 Listed $1,196,000 bridgeMLS, Bay East AOR, or Contra Costa AOR
• 1998-09-01 Sold (Public Records) $230,000 Public Records
• 1987-12-10 Sold (Public Records) $180,000 Public Records

Property tax history

+2.5%/yr

Latest (2025): $8,140 · +7.7% YoY. Source: county tax records.