2239 S FM 14 · Holly Lake Ranch, TX 75773

$95,000

2 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,220 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 27 Days on market

Built 1985 0.89 ac lot Est $95k · at est.

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Why this score? — see what drove the B- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +30.0/30.0
• 1% rule +10.0/10.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• ARV discount +7.6/15.0
• Schools +3.5/10.0
• Livability +3.3/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

INVESTOR PROPERTY. GREAT OPPORTUNITY TO OWN A PROPERTY IN BEAUTIFUL EAST TEXAS, JUST MINUTES FROM HOLLY LAKE. THE HOME HAS NOT BEEN UNOCCUPIED FOR APPROX. 2 YEARS. BEING SOLD AS IS. THIS HOME CAN BECOME A GREAT STARTER HOME OR A WEEKEND RETREAT IN A QUIET AND PEACEFUL RURAL SETTING. THE LOT IS COVERED BY SEVERAL LARGE SHADE TREES AND IS SURROUNDED BY PINE FOREST AND PASTURE LAND. THE PROPERTY RECEIVES WATER AND ELECTRICITY FROM A LOCAL COOP. THE UTITLITES ARE CURRENTLY DISCONNECTED.

Key facts

• 0.89 acre lot
• 2 parking spots
• Built 1985

Property features AI

Finance

• Other: Listing is Active Under Contract; Directions: Property is located in rural community of Pine Mills
• Financial info: Treat as clear loan type; No second mortgage
• HOA & community: No association

Exterior

• Parking: Detached carport; 2 covered spaces; 2 carport spaces
• Security:
• Utilities: Aerobic septic (no municipal utility district)
• Home design: Single-family residence; One level; Property attached: Yes
• Construction: Built in 1985
• Exterior features: Approximately 0.893-acre lot; Located in a rural community (Pine Mills); Subdivision: DAVIS J

Interior

• Kitchen: Electric range
• Bedrooms: 2 bedrooms (both on main level; both approximately 11 x 11)
• Flooring:
• Bathrooms: 1 full bathroom (on main level; approx. 7 x 5)
• Heating & cooling:
• Interior features: Cable TV available; One living area; One dining area; Total of 5 rooms
• Laundry & utility:

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $95k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $553 ($7k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $95k).
• Recommended offer: $94k (1.5% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 13.3% vs local median 3.8% in Holly Lake Ranch — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 66/100 on livability (#597 in TX) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: crime A+, cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: amenities F, commute F, health & safety D-.
• Quitman ISD (town): math 36% / reading 47% proficiency, ranked #381 of 826 in TX (top 46%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: Quitman El (math 40% / reading 43%, grade F, #1,437 of 4,322 statewide, top 34%, 581 students, 64% FRL).
• Market conditions: 261 active listings in the ZIP; 72 units permitted in Wood County in 2024 (29 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $657 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $3k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Wood County population projected at +12% by 2050 — modest demand growth; plan on rents tracking national, not racing it.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $27k cash investment doubles in ~5 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 27 days — a 2% lower offer ($94k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: major wind risk, 46% chance of damaging wind over 30y; moderate wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→26/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $93,575 (1.5% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
2. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
3. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
4. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
5. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.61% ✓
• Cap rate: 13.27%
• Cash-on-cash: 24.93%
• DSCR: 2.11
• GRM: 5.2

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $95,160
• Comps found: 1

Show comp detail 1 sale within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
2239 S FM 14	0.00mi	2/1.0	1,220 (0%)	1mo	$95,000	$78	95

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 18.4%
• Equity multiple: 1.75×
• Total profit: $19,830
• Equity at exit: $14,165

10-year hold

• IRR: 26.8%
• Equity multiple: 3.36×
• Total profit: $62,688
• Equity at exit: $8,214

Cash invested: $26,600 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 75773

• Home prices YoY: -8.9%
• Active inventory: 261
• Price-to-rent: 5.2×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,530 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$498
• Tax from tax record: −$119 /mo · $1,423/yr
• Insurance: −$40
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$321
• Net cashflow: $553

Break-even live

Break-even rent $831

Max offer price $95,000

Occupancy floor 59%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $23,750
• Closing costs: $2,850
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 4 events

1. 2026-04-29
   status Pending
2. 2026-04-22
   historical Active Option Contract
3. 2026-04-02
   listed $95,000 Active
4. 1996-03-06
   soldstatus

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast TX · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $1,423 · $119/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $1,738 · $145/mo
• Expected delta: +$316/yr (+$26/mo · 22.2%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 5/10 Major
• 🌡 Heat 7/10 Severe 7 d/yr ≥110°F today · 26 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 6/10 Major 46% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 1 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $18,365
• − Mortgage interest: −$5,321
• − Property taxes: −$1,423
• − Insurance: −$475
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,469
• − Management: −$1,469
• − Depreciation: −$2,764
• Taxable income: $5,444
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$1,306
• After-tax cash flow: $5,326/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Quitman ISD
• NCES district ID: 4836300
• Math proficiency: 36% ▼ -15.00%
• Reading proficiency: 47% ▼ -4.00%
• Median HH income: $42,081
• Composite: 34.94/100
• National rank: #5063
• State rank: #381 of 826 in TX

Livability — Holly Lake Ranch

• Score: 66/100
• State rank: #597
• US rank: #11377

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime A+ Employment B- Housing A+ Health & safety D- User ratings C-

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Population (ZIP): 14,311

Population outlook (Wood County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 46,480 people
• By 2030: 47,796 · +2.8%
• By 2040: 50,142 · +7.9%
• By 2050: 52,122 · +12.1%
• By 2075: 57,033 · +22.7%
• By 2100: 56,418 · +21.4%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (79%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 79% Hispanic / Latino 14% Two or more races 8% Black 4%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 10%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 2% Slovak 2% Serbian 1%
• Foreign-born: 4% · Canada
• Languages at home: 91% English-only · Spanish 7% German/W. Germanic 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Wood

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+69.7) · D 14.8% · R 84.6%
• 2008→2024 swing: -15.5pp toward R · 2008: -54.2pp · 2024: -69.7pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+69.7 2020: R+68.2 2016: R+70.0 2012: R+64.2 2008: R+54.2

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -22.31%
• Current HPI: 227.0529
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Price history

4 events — show timeline

• 2026-04-29 Pending — NTREIS
• 2026-04-22 Contingent — NTREIS
• 2026-04-02 Listed $95,000 NTREIS
• 1996-03-06 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records

Property tax history

+3.6%/yr

Latest (2025): $1,423 · +19.2% YoY. Source: county tax records.