100 Splitrail Ln Unit 3841 Splitrail Lane · Lake, PA 18436

$199,900

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,380 sqft · SingleFamily · 170 Days on market

Built 1975 Good condition 0.41 ac lot $145/sqft · 28% below area Est $278k · 28% under $194/mo HOA · 12% of rent ↓ 4% since listing

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Why this score? — see what drove the D+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• Appreciation +10.0/10.0
• Cash flow +6.4/30.0
• Schools +4.9/10.0
• Condition / age +3.8/5.0
• 1% rule +2.8/10.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Livability +2.5/5.0
• DSCR +0.7/10.0

Listing remarks

ATTENTION INVESTORS/HANDY BUYERS: Incredible sweat equity opportunity on a highly desirable cul de sac backing up to greenbelt land. 2 story stone fireplace, cathedral ceilings, first floor primary bedroom. Short term rental opportunity. Pre Listing Inspection report available to buyers. Price reflects condition. Seller seeks clean offers reflective of condition & pricing. .Year-round retreat Surrounded by trees and backing directly to preserved land, this property offers exceptional privacy with no through traffic- the perfect setting to relax and enjoy the peaceful surroundings. Conveniently located near the rear entrance of the community providing easier access within the Hideout.

Key facts

• Screened side porch
• Preserved land
• First floor laundry

Tags

• PRIVATE CUL-DE-SAC
• PRESERVED LAND
• LARGE FRONT DECK
• SCREENED SIDE PORCH
• STONE FIREPLACE
• FIRST FLOOR LAUNDRY

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $200k. Condition is rated good.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-342 ($-4k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $150k (24.8% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $156k (21.9% below list).
• Recommended offer: $150k (24.8% below list) — sets the bar for cash-flow.

Location & tenants

• Location reads: area grade D — affects rentability + tenant quality, not the cash-flow math above.
• Western Wayne SD (rural): math 39% / reading 63% proficiency, ranked #165 of 539 in PA (top 31%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Zoned schools: Evergreen El Sch (math 42% / reading 68%, grade C, #498 of 1,518 statewide, top 33%, 506 students, 64% FRL); Western Wayne Ms (math 21% / reading 61%, grade F, #243 of 512 statewide, top 48%, 411 students, 57% FRL); Western Wayne Hs (math 77% / reading 24%, grade D+, #125 of 437 statewide, top 30%, 545 students, 49% FRL) — zoned schools average 56% FRL vs 41% district-wide (16 pts higher); higher-poverty schools than district average — tighter screening recommended.
• Market conditions: 573 active listings in the ZIP; 2 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; 177 units permitted in Wayne County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $21k of equity ($1k loan paydown + $20k appreciation (10.0% local appreciation)).
• Wayne County population projected at -17% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• By year 2, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$34k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 170 days — a 12% lower offer ($176k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Recommended offer $150,387 (24.8% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 170 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 25% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. Built in 1975 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
4. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
5. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
6. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
7. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
8. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
9. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
10. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.78% ✗
• Cap rate: 4.24%
• Cash-on-cash: -7.34%
• DSCR: 0.67
• GRM: 10.7

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $277,863
• List price: $199,900
• Delta: -28.06%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 6 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
183 Chestnuthill Dr	0.52mi	3/2.0	1,301 (-6%)	10mo	$245,000	$188	58
38 N Fairway Dr Lot 2953	0.72mi	3/2.0	1,336 (-3%)	10mo	$280,000	$210	53
38 N Fairway Drive Dr Lot 2953	0.72mi	3/2.0	1,336 (-3%)	10mo	$280,000	$210	53
38 N Fairway Dr	0.72mi	3/2.0	1,336 (-3%)	10mo	$280,000	$210	53
22 Thornwood Ter	0.38mi	3/2.0	1,200 (-13%)	14mo	$265,000	$221	49
72 Hidden Lake Dr	0.35mi	3/2.0	1,180 (-14%)	15mo	$162,500	$138	47

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

10.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 19.1%
• Equity multiple: 2.56×
• Total profit: $87,221
• Equity at exit: $180,086

10-year hold

• IRR: 17.7%
• Equity multiple: 5.90×
• Total profit: $274,272
• Equity at exit: $388,362

Cash invested: $55,972 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 62 Landlord-Friendly
• State Pennsylvania: 62 Landlord-Friendly · EVEN
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

10-day notice; Philadelphia has eviction-court diversion + some protections; otherwise moderate.

Methodology + full state rankings →

Buyer's market Market conditions within 1.0 mi — comparable homes for sale

Active competition Active MLS

• For sale now: 11 active · 4 under contract
• Months of supply: 33.0 mo (3%/mo absorbed)
• Median asking: $259,000 ($214/sqft)
• Median days on market: 93 d
• This list price: lowest-priced of the active set
• ARV vs active asking: -6.1% vs current asking $/sqft

Closed sales set the value; these active listings set current market conditions and a practical price ceiling.

ZIP-level market 18436

• Home prices YoY: 16.9%
• Active inventory: 573
• Price-to-rent: 10.7×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,561 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,048
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$250 /mo · $2,998/yr
• Insurance: −$83
• HOA: −$194
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$328
• Net cashflow: $-342

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,994

Max offer price $150,387

Occupancy floor —

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $-204	-5% $-273	+0% $-342	+5% $-411	+10% $-480
Rent	-10% $-466	-5% $-404	+0% $-342	+5% $-281	+10% $-219
Rate	-1.0pp $-242	-0.5pp $-291	base $-342	+0.5pp $-394	+1.0pp $-447

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $49,975
• Closing costs: $5,997
• Club membership (one-time): —
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 2 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
100 Splitrail Ln Lake Ariel, PA	3.0	2.0	1380	$1,500	$1.09	0d	1	0.01mi
3308 Northgate Rd Lot 3308 Lake Ariel, PA	3.0	2.0	1269	$2,200	$1.73	0d	1	0.96mi

Property features AI

Finance

• Other: Subdivision: The Hideout
• HOA & community: Part of a homeowners associationCommunity amenities include clubhouse, tennis courts, pool, lake, golf, fitness centerAssociation provides security, trash removal, and snow removalAnnual association fee and additional one-time fee apply

Exterior

• Parking: Driveway with space for 5 vehicles
• Utilities: Electricity connectedWater connectedPublic sewer
• Home design: Single family residenceTwo levels
• Construction: Shingle roofCrawl space foundation
• Exterior features: DeckPorchScreened porchShed(s)Located on a cul-de-sacWooded lotHas viewAsphalt roadPrivate maintained road

Interior

• Kitchen: DishwasherRefrigeratorMicrowaveElectric range
• Flooring: CarpetWoodCeramic tile
• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms
• Heating & cooling: Baseboard heatingElectric heatingPropane heatingNo central cooling
• Interior features: Cathedral ceilingsLiving room fireplace
• Laundry & utility: Main level laundry room

Listing history 50 events

1. 2026-11-08
   days on market $199,900 Active 170 DOM
2. 2026-11-07
   days on market $199,900 Active 169 DOM
3. 2026-11-06
   days on market $199,900 Active 168 DOM
4. 2026-11-05
   days on market $199,900 Active 167 DOM
5. 2026-11-04
   days on market $199,900 Active 166 DOM
6. 2026-11-02
   days on market $199,900 Active 164 DOM
7. 2026-11-01
   days on market $199,900 Active 163 DOM
8. 2026-10-31
   days on market $199,900 Active 162 DOM
9. 2026-10-30
   days on market $199,900 Active 161 DOM
10. 2026-10-29
    days on market $199,900 Active 160 DOM
11. 2026-10-28
    days on market $199,900 Active 159 DOM
12. 2026-10-27
    days on market $199,900 Active 158 DOM
13. 2026-10-26
    days on market $199,900 Active 157 DOM
14. 2026-10-25
    days on market $199,900 Active 156 DOM
15. 2026-10-24
    days on market $199,900 Active 155 DOM
16. 2026-10-23
    days on market $199,900 Active 154 DOM
17. 2026-10-22
    days on market $199,900 Active 153 DOM
18. 2026-10-21
    days on market $199,900 Active 152 DOM
19. 2026-10-20
    days on market $199,900 Active 151 DOM
20. 2026-10-19
    days on market $199,900 Active 150 DOM
21. 2026-10-18
    days on market $199,900 Active 149 DOM
22. 2026-10-17
    days on market $199,900 Active 148 DOM
23. 2026-10-16
    days on market $199,900 Active 147 DOM
24. 2026-10-15
    days on market $199,900 Active 146 DOM
25. 2026-10-14
    days on market $199,900 Active 145 DOM
26. 2026-10-13
    days on market $199,900 Active 144 DOM
27. 2026-10-12
    days on market $199,900 Active 143 DOM
28. 2026-10-11
    days on market $199,900 Active 142 DOM
29. 2026-10-10
    days on market $199,900 Active 141 DOM
30. 2026-10-09
    days on market $199,900 Active 140 DOM
31. 2026-10-08
    days on market $199,900 Active 139 DOM
32. 2026-10-07
    days on market $199,900 Active 138 DOM
33. 2026-10-06
    days on market $199,900 Active 137 DOM
34. 2026-10-05
    days on market $199,900 Active 136 DOM
35. 2026-10-04
    days on market $199,900 Active 135 DOM
36. 2026-10-03
    days on market $199,900 Active 134 DOM
37. 2026-10-02
    days on market $199,900 Active 133 DOM
38. 2026-10-01
    pricedays on market $199,900 Active 132 DOM
39. 2026-09-30
    days on market $214,900 Active 131 DOM
40. 2026-09-29
    days on market $214,900 Active 130 DOM
41. 2026-09-28
    days on market $214,900 Active 129 DOM
42. 2026-09-27
    days on market $214,900 Active 128 DOM
43. 2026-09-26
    days on market $214,900 Active 127 DOM
44. 2026-09-25
    days on market $214,900 Active 126 DOM
45. 2026-09-24
    days on market $214,900 Active 125 DOM
46. 2026-09-24
    days on market $214,900 Active 124 DOM
47. 2026-09-22
    days on market $214,900 Active 123 DOM
48. 2026-09-21
    days on market $214,900 Active 122 DOM
49. 2026-09-20
    days on market $214,900 Active 121 DOM
50. 2026-09-18
    days on market $214,900 Active 119 DOM

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 2/10 Low 7 d/yr ≥90°F today · 16 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 2/10 Low 3% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 2 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $18,734
• − Mortgage interest: −$11,198
• − Property taxes: −$2,998
• − Insurance: −$1,000
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,499
• − Management: −$1,499
• − HOA: −$2,328
• − Depreciation: −$5,815
• Taxable loss: −$7,603
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$1,825
• After-tax cash flow: $-2,281/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Condition & rehab AI · 13 photos

Good 75/100 Cosmetic rehab Est. rehab $6,900–$20,700 screening

This single-family home in The Hideout is in good condition with a good condition score of 75. It has a good roof, exterior, and interior, and is move-in ready. The home has a good resale and rental value with potential for further improvements.

Value-add opportunities

• Both paint exterior — enhances curb appeal and resale value ↑
• Both landscaping — improves curb appeal and rental value ↑
• Both install new windows — increases natural light and energy efficiency ↑
• Both update kitchen appliances — modernizes the space and increases appeal ↑

ⓘ Rehab cost is a screening estimate — Cosmetic scope × the home's square footage at US $/sqft rules of thumb (the same model as the Flip Finder). Get contractor quotes + a written scope before underwriting.

F Composite school gradezoned avg 49/100

Zoned Schools

Elementary Evergreen El Sch C PA #498/1,518 Nat'l #9,637/41,679 Middle Western Wayne Ms F PA #243/512 Nat'l #5,727/14,009 High Western Wayne Hs D+ PA #125/437 Nat'l #5,376/17,239

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Western Wayne SD
• NCES district ID: 4226070
• Math proficiency: 39% ▼ -12.00%
• Reading proficiency: 63% ▼ -6.00%
• Median HH income: $51,358
• Composite: 43.65/100
• National rank: #2964
• State rank: #165 of 539 in PA

Livability — Lake

No livability data for this city. (Only ~50 U.S. cities are tracked.)

Census & demographics

• Census place: The Hideout, PA
• County: Wayne · 47,924 people
• Population (ZIP): 13,225
• Household income: $73,209
• Rent vs Own: 11.7% rent · 88.3% own

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Population outlook (Wayne County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 47,924 people
• By 2030: 46,191 · -3.6%
• By 2040: 42,815 · -10.7%
• By 2050: 39,873 · -16.8%
• By 2075: 34,556 · -27.9%
• By 2100: 28,358 · -40.8%

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Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (95%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 95% Two or more races 3% Hispanic / Latino 2%
• Languages at home: 95% English-only · French/Haitian/Cajun 2% Russian/Polish/Slavic 1% Spanish 1%

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Political lean MEDSL · Wayne

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+37.1) · D 31.1% · R 68.2%
• 2008→2024 swing: -24.8pp toward R · 2008: -12.3pp · 2024: -37.1pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+37.1 2020: R+33.6 2016: R+39.7 2012: R+20.9 2008: R+12.3

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 47.95%
• Current HPI: 331.9645
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 1.68%
• F500 in state: 34

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Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in PA)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Healthcare	2	$309B
▸Insurance	2	$27B
▸Telecommunications / Media	1	$124B
▸Industrial Distribution	1	$22B
▸Financial Services	1	$20B
▸Chemicals / Materials	1	$18B

Property features AI

Finance

• Other: Subdivision: The Hideout
• HOA & community: Part of a homeowners associationCommunity amenities include clubhouse, tennis courts, pool, lake, golf, fitness centerAssociation provides security, trash removal, and snow removalAnnual association fee and additional one-time fee apply

Exterior

• Parking: Driveway with space for 5 vehicles
• Utilities: Electricity connectedWater connectedPublic sewer
• Home design: Single family residenceTwo levels
• Construction: Shingle roofCrawl space foundation
• Exterior features: DeckPorchScreened porchShed(s)Located on a cul-de-sacWooded lotHas viewAsphalt roadPrivate maintained road

Interior

• Kitchen: DishwasherRefrigeratorMicrowaveElectric range
• Flooring: CarpetWoodCeramic tile
• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms
• Heating & cooling: Baseboard heatingElectric heatingPropane heatingNo central cooling
• Interior features: Cathedral ceilingsLiving room fireplace
• Laundry & utility: Main level laundry room

Price history

-4.5% since first listed

2 events — show timeline

• 2026-06-09 Price Changed $214,900 PWMLS
• 2026-05-21 Listed $225,000 PWMLS