25 Southbury Ln · Columbia, SC 29209

$189,900

2 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,884 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 108 Days on market

Built 1987 5,227 sqft lot Est $224k · 15% under $214/mo HOA · 12% of rent

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Why this score? — see what drove the D+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• ARV discount +14.4/15.0
• Cash flow +12.3/30.0
• 1% rule +4.1/10.0
• Livability +3.9/5.0
• DSCR +3.7/10.0
• Rent growth +3.0/5.0
• Schools +2.6/10.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

Charming brick patio home in the Southbury section of Reflections! Located in a gated community with 3 lakes, clubhouse, and parks, this 2-bed, 2-bath home offers easy living with hardwood and tile floors throughout. Enjoy an updated kitchen with solid-surface counters, stainless appliances, breakfast area, and two pantry closets. The formal dining room opens to a spacious great room with a cozy fireplace. The primary suite features a large bath with separate shower and whirlpool tub plus a walk-in closet. A generous laundry room provides extra storage. Outdoor living shines with a huge, screened porch and brick-wall privacy fencing. Built in 1987 and maintained, this home offers comfort, c

Key facts

• Gated community
• Tile floors
• Clubhouse

Tags

• GATED COMMUNITY
• 3 LAKES
• CLUBHOUSE
• PARKS
• HARDWOOD FLOORS
• TILE FLOORS

Property features AI

Finance

• Other: Paved road access; Located in a gated neighborhood (directions available through listing)
• HOA & community: Homeowners association (community amenities include clubhouse, common area maintenance, playground, pool); Community pool

Exterior

• Parking: Attached garage on main level (1 garage space); Two parking spaces total
• Security: Gated community
• Utilities: Public water; Public sewer
• Home design: Single-story home; Brick exterior above foundation
• Construction: Slab foundation
• Exterior features: Patio; Screened back porch; Brick fencing in rear

Interior

• Kitchen: Bar; Wood cabinets; Pantry; Solid surface countertops; Tile floor; Tiled backsplash
• Bedrooms: Master bedroom on main level with private bath, separate shower, whirlpool tub, walk-in closet, ceiling fan, hardwood and tile floors; Second bedroom on main level with shared bath, walk-in closet, hardwood floors
• Flooring: Hardwood floors; Tile floors
• Bathrooms: Two full bathrooms
• Heating & cooling: Central air conditioning; Heat pump on first level
• Interior features: Ceiling fan; Pull-down attic access; Wood-burning fireplace (1)
• Laundry & utility: Main-level mud room laundry

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $190k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-34 ($-411/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $184k (3.2% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $173k (8.9% below list).
• Recommended offer: $173k (9.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 6.1% vs local median 5.0% in Columbia — meaningfully above typical; check what's discounted (condition, days-on-market, listing class) to confirm the premium yield is real.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 78/100 on livability (#18 in SC, #2,436 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: amenities A+, commute A+, cost of living A+; Watch: employment D, crime F.
• Richland 01 (urban): math 26% / reading 36% proficiency, ranked #54 of 80 in SC (top 68%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases; 64% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Zoned schools: Caughman Road Elementary (math 22% / reading 27%, grade F, #452 of 597 statewide, top 78%, 707 students, 100% FRL); Lower Richland High (math 5% / reading 64%, grade F, #185 of 196 statewide, top 94%, 1,244 students, 100% FRL) — zoned schools average 100% FRL vs 64% district-wide (36 pts higher); higher-poverty schools than district average — tighter screening recommended.
• Market conditions: Rents rising (+2.1%/yr); 295 active listings in the ZIP; 10 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 15d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 3,472 units permitted in Richland County in 2024 (1,096 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 35% of the median local income ($59k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $6k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Richland County population projected at +30% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 108 days — a 9% lower offer ($173k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Current owner paid $155k; 23% above their basis — modest negotiation headroom, anchor on the comps not their cost.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: major wind risk, 70% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→16/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $172,809 (9.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 108 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 9% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
4. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
5. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
6. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
7. Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
8. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
9. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
10. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
11. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.91% ✗
• Cap rate: 6.08%
• Cash-on-cash: -0.77%
• DSCR: 0.97
• GRM: 9.1

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $224,196
• Comps found: 3

Show comp detail 3 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
10 Shadow Creek Ct	0.30mi	3/3.0 (+1)	1,944 (+3%)	7mo	$130,000	$67	66
3200 Downes	0.68mi	3/2.0 (+1)	1,811 (-4%)	21mo	$215,000	$119	40
3320 Rawlinson Rd	0.65mi	3/2.5 (+1)	2,156 (+14%)	20mo	$290,000	$135	22

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 2.08% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -18.6%
• Equity multiple: 0.35×
• Total profit: $-34,460
• Equity at exit: $28,315

10-year hold

• IRR: -13.0%
• Equity multiple: 0.27×
• Total profit: $-38,883
• Equity at exit: $16,419

Cash invested: $53,172 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 90 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State South Carolina: 90 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+6
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

5-day notice; preempted; landlord-favorable.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 29209

• Rents YoY: 2.1%
• Active inventory: 295
• Price-to-rent: 9.1×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,731 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$996
• Tax from tax record: −$113 /mo · $1,351/yr
• Insurance: −$79
• HOA: −$214
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$363
• Net cashflow: $-34

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,774

Max offer price $183,848

Occupancy floor 97%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $73	-5% $19	+0% $-34	+5% $-88	+10% $-142
Rent	-10% $-171	-5% $-103	+0% $-34	+5% $34	+10% $102
Rate	-1.0pp $61	-0.5pp $14	base $-34	+0.5pp $-83	+1.0pp $-134

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $47,475
• Closing costs: $5,697
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 10 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
2769 Prince Charles Ct Columbia, SC	3.0	2.5	1617	$1,850	$1.14	11d	1	0.31mi
2011 Dominion Dr Columbia, SC	3.0	2.0	1625	$1,595	$0.98	24d	1	0.34mi
457 Delahays Rd Columbia, SC	3.0	2.0	1704	$2,000	$1.17	15d	1	0.78mi
440 Delahays Rd Columbia, SC	3.0	2.5	1704	$1,900	$1.12	15d	1	0.82mi
345 Bevington Brook Ln Hopkins, SC	3.0	2.0	1475	$2,195	$1.49	24d	1	1.17mi
455 Hunters Crossing Dr Hopkins, SC	3.0	2.0	1381	$1,699	$1.23	15d	1	1.21mi
4022 Ulmer Rd Columbia, SC	2.0–3.0	1.0–2.0	1202	$819	$0.68	19d	1	1.24mi
149 Moores Creek Dr Columbia, SC	3.0	2.0	1600	$2,069	$1.29	15d	1	1.28mi
305 Shoreditch Dr Columbia, SC	3.0	1.5	1378	$1,586	$1.15	19d	1	1.38mi
1049 Crescent Moon Loop Hopkins, SC	3.0	2.5	1650	$2,100	$1.27	15d	1	1.48mi

HOA detail

• Monthly dues: $214 · $2,568/yr
• Likely covers: poolsecurity

Listing history 14 events

1. 2026-06-03
   statusdays on market $189,900 Pending 108 DOM
2. 2026-06-03
   days on market $189,900 Active 107 DOM
3. 2026-06-01
   days on market $189,900 Active 106 DOM
4. 2026-05-31
   days on market $189,900 Active 105 DOM
5. 2026-05-18
   price $189,900
6. 2026-04-21
   price $205,500
7. 2026-03-23
   price $215,000
8. 2026-02-13
   listed $224,000 Active
9. 2017-11-16
   soldstatus $154,900
10. 2015-05-05
    price $144,500
11. 2007-09-21
    soldstatus $155,000
12. 1993-02-08
    soldstatus $125,000
13. 1991-04-17
    soldstatus $125,565
14. 1988-05-01
    soldstatus $111,700

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast SC · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $1,351 · $113/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $1,351 · $113/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 4/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 7/10 Severe 7 d/yr ≥108°F today · 16 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 6/10 Major 70% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 3/10 Moderate 2 unhealthy d/yr today · 2 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $20,769
• − Mortgage interest: −$10,637
• − Property taxes: −$1,351
• − Insurance: −$950
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,662
• − Management: −$1,662
• − HOA: −$2,568
• − Depreciation: −$5,524
• Taxable loss: −$3,584
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$860
• After-tax cash flow: $449/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Richland 01
• NCES district ID: 4503360
• Math proficiency: 26% ▼ -7.00%
• Reading proficiency: 36% ▼ -5.00%
• Median HH income: $38,931
• Composite: 25.94/100
• National rank: #7335
• State rank: #54 of 80 in SC

Livability — Columbia

• Score: 78/100
• State rank: #18
• US rank: #2436

Category grades

Amenities A+ Commute A+ Cost of living A+ Crime F Employment D Housing A+ Health & safety A+ User ratings D

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• County: Richland County · 389,530 people
• City population: 335,994
• Metro: Columbia, SC
• Population (ZIP): 38,041
• Household income: $58,772
• Rent vs Own: 41.3% rent · 58.7% own
• Severe rent burden: 1716.0

Population outlook (Richland County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 459,667 people
• By 2030: 487,524 · +6.1%
• By 2040: 542,035 · +17.9%
• By 2050: 595,371 · +29.5%
• By 2075: 732,998 · +59.5%
• By 2100: 820,415 · +78.5%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.62)
• Race & ethnicity: Black 48% White 39% Two or more races 6% Hispanic / Latino 6% Asian 2%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 3% Puerto Rican 2%
• Common ancestry: Slovak 2% Serbian 2% Italian 1%
• Foreign-born: 6% · Canada, Jamaica
• Languages at home: 93% English-only · Spanish 3% Arabic 1% Other Indo-European 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Richland

• 2024 margin: Solid D (+34.6) · D 66.4% · R 31.8% · Other 1.8%
• 2008→2024 swing: +5.7pp toward D · 2008: 28.9pp · 2024: 34.6pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+34.6 2020: D+38.3 2016: D+32.9 2012: D+33.3 2008: D+28.9

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -142.10%
• Current HPI: 205.5679
• Rent YoY: ▲ 2.08%
• Metro: Columbia, SC
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 4.51%
• F500 in state: 2

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in SC)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Packaging	1	$7B

Price history

+70.0% since first listed

10 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-18 Price Changed $189,900 Consolidated MLS
• 2026-04-21 Price Changed $205,500 Consolidated MLS
• 2026-03-23 Price Changed $215,000 Consolidated MLS
• 2026-02-13 Listed $224,000 Consolidated MLS
• 2017-11-16 Sold (Public Records) $154,900 Public Records
• 2015-05-05 Price Changed $144,500 Consolidated MLS
• 2007-09-21 Sold (Public Records) $155,000 Public Records
• 1993-02-08 Sold (Public Records) $125,000 Public Records
• 1991-04-17 Sold (Public Records) $125,565 Public Records
• 1988-05-01 Sold (Public Records) $111,700 Public Records

Property tax history

+1.1%/yr

Latest (2025): $1,351 · +4.2% YoY. Source: county tax records.