452 Bluewater Dr · Bluewater, AZ 85344

$195,000

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,400 sqft · Manufactured · 176 Days on market

Built 1995 Good condition 4,792 sqft lot $139/sqft · 32% above area Est $148k · 32% over

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Why this score? — see what drove the D grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +20.1/30.0
• DSCR +6.4/10.0
• 1% rule +5.3/10.0
• Condition / age +3.8/5.0
• Livability +3.2/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Schools +1.5/10.0
• ARV discount +0.0/15.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

ON LEASED LAND Low $111.00 lease Nicely upgraded 3-bedroom, 2-bath manufactured home in the desirable Bluewater Lagoon community! This well-maintained property offers a brand new roof, excellent curb appeal with both side and front parking, plus flowing flooring throughout for a clean, cohesive feel. Step inside to an open floor plan perfect for comfortable living and entertaining. The spacious primary suite features a separate soaking tub and shower for added relaxation. The kitchen includes convenient in-home laundry access, making daily routines a breeze. Enjoy Arizona evenings on the covered patio, where you can take in beautiful mountain and sunset views. The fully fenced yard provides a safe space for kids and pets to play. Homes like this don't come up often—come take a look today!

Key facts

• Open floor plan
• Brand new roof
• Covered patio

Tags

• BRAND NEW ROOF
• OPEN FLOOR PLAN
• COVERED PATIO
• FULLY FENCED YARD

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath manufactured listed at $195k. Condition is rated good.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $242 ($3k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $195k).
• Recommended offer: $172k (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 7.8% vs local median 9.9% in Bluewater — below-typical yield; the buyer is paying a premium for something (appreciation thesis, condition, location) that the cap rate doesn't capture.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 65/100 on livability (#81 in AZ) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, crime A-; Watch: health & safety C-, employment D+, amenities F.
• Parker Unified School District (4510) (town): math 18% / reading 18% proficiency, ranked #200 of 249 in AZ (top 80%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover; 69% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Zoned schools: Blake Primary School (354 students, 70% FRL); Wallace Jr High School (math 15% / reading 18%, grade F, #151 of 218 statewide, top 70%, 303 students, 73% FRL); Parker High School (math 8% / reading 12%, grade F, #343 of 381 statewide, top 93%, 507 students, 69% FRL) — zoned schools at 70% FRL track the district average.
• Market conditions: 147 active listings in the ZIP; 92 units permitted in La Paz County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $6k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• La Paz County population projected at -11% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 176 days — a 12% lower offer ($172k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 6 sale attempts since 6y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Current owner paid $151k; 29% above their basis — modest negotiation headroom, anchor on the comps not their cost.

Recommended offer $171,600 (12.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 176 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
5. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.03% ✓
• Cap rate: 7.78%
• Cash-on-cash: 5.33%
• DSCR: 1.24
• GRM: 8.1

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $148,052
• List price: $195,000
• Delta: 31.71%
• Verdict: OVERPRICED
• Comps: 14 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
337 N Moonlight Dr	0.17mi	3/2.0	1,440 (+3%)	1mo	$190,000	$132	87
405 N Stardust Ln	0.10mi	3/2.0	1,372 (-2%)	10mo	$130,000	$95	84
409 N Misty Ln	0.08mi	3/2.0	1,500 (+7%)	5mo	$122,000	$81	80
471 Bluewater Dr	0.02mi	3/2.0	1,216 (-13%)	0mo	$124,900	$103	77
484 E Riverfront Dr	0.29mi	3/2.0	1,392 (-1%)	15mo	$415,000	$298	73
232 E Riverfront Dr	0.32mi	4/2.0 (+1)	1,340 (-4%)	2mo	$350,000	$261	72
338 N Moonlight Dr	0.18mi	2/2.0 (-1)	1,296 (-7%)	6mo	$132,000	$102	69
473 Bluewater Dr	0.22mi	2/2.0 (-1)	1,440 (+3%)	13mo	$143,500	$100	69
452 E Riverfront Dr	0.17mi	3/2.0	1,248 (-11%)	8mo	$289,000	$232	67
516 Bluewater Dr	0.40mi	3/2.0	1,440 (+3%)	12mo	$265,000	$184	66
245 E Riverfront Dr	0.32mi	2/2.0 (-1)	1,344 (-4%)	13mo	$275,000	$205	63
249 Bluewater Dr	0.26mi	3/2.0	1,568 (+12%)	10mo	$157,308	$100	60

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -8.0%
• Equity multiple: 0.70×
• Total profit: $-16,134
• Equity at exit: $29,075

10-year hold

• IRR: 1.5%
• Equity multiple: 1.11×
• Total profit: $5,947
• Equity at exit: $16,860

Cash invested: $54,600 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Arizona: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+3
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

5-day pay-or-quit; AZ courts known for speed; no state rent control; cities preempted by state law.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 85344

• Active inventory: 147
• Price-to-rent: 8.1×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,013 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,023
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$244 /mo · $2,925/yr
• Insurance: −$81
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$423
• Net cashflow: $242

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,706

Max offer price $195,000

Occupancy floor 83%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $377	-5% $310	+0% $242	+5% $175	+10% $108
Rent	-10% $83	-5% $163	+0% $242	+5% $322	+10% $401
Rate	-1.0pp $341	-0.5pp $292	base $242	+0.5pp $192	+1.0pp $140

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $48,750
• Closing costs: $5,850
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 16 events

1. 2026-06-03
   days on market $195,000 Active 176 DOM
2. 2026-06-02
   days on market $195,000 Active 175 DOM
3. 2026-06-01
   days on market $195,000 Active 174 DOM
4. 2026-05-31
   days on market $195,000 Active 173 DOM
5. 2026-05-30
   days on market $195,000 Active 172 DOM
6. 2026-02-20
   status Active 809-char remark

   Show marketing remark (809 chars)

   ON LEASED LAND Low $111.00 lease Nicely upgraded 3-bedroom, 2-bath manufactured home in the desirable Bluewater Lagoon community! This well-maintained property offers a brand new roof, excellent curb appeal with both side and front parking, plus flowing flooring throughout for a clean, cohesive feel. Step inside to an open floor plan perfect for comfortable living and entertaining. The spacious primary suite features a separate soaking tub and shower for added relaxation. The kitchen includes convenient in-home laundry access, making daily routines a breeze. Enjoy Arizona evenings on the covered patio, where you can take in beautiful mountain and sunset views. The fully fenced yard provides a safe space for kids and pets to play. Homes like this don't come up often—come take a look today!

7. 2026-02-20
   price $195,000 799-char remark

   Show marketing remark (809 chars)

   ON LEASED LAND Low $111.00 lease Nicely upgraded 3-bedroom, 2-bath manufactured home in the desirable Bluewater Lagoon community! This well-maintained property offers a brand new roof, excellent curb appeal with both side and front parking, plus flowing flooring throughout for a clean, cohesive feel. Step inside to an open floor plan perfect for comfortable living and entertaining. The spacious primary suite features a separate soaking tub and shower for added relaxation. The kitchen includes convenient in-home laundry access, making daily routines a breeze. Enjoy Arizona evenings on the covered patio, where you can take in beautiful mountain and sunset views. The fully fenced yard provides a safe space for kids and pets to play. Homes like this don't come up often—come take a look today!

8. 2026-02-20
   price $195,000 809-char remark

   Show marketing remark (809 chars)

   ON LEASED LAND Low $111.00 lease Nicely upgraded 3-bedroom, 2-bath manufactured home in the desirable Bluewater Lagoon community! This well-maintained property offers a brand new roof, excellent curb appeal with both side and front parking, plus flowing flooring throughout for a clean, cohesive feel. Step inside to an open floor plan perfect for comfortable living and entertaining. The spacious primary suite features a separate soaking tub and shower for added relaxation. The kitchen includes convenient in-home laundry access, making daily routines a breeze. Enjoy Arizona evenings on the covered patio, where you can take in beautiful mountain and sunset views. The fully fenced yard provides a safe space for kids and pets to play. Homes like this don't come up often—come take a look today!

9. 2025-12-09
   listed $205,000 Active 799-char remark

   Show marketing remark (799 chars)

   ON LEASED LAND Low $111.00 lease Nicely upgraded 3-bedroom, 2-bath manufactured home in the desirable Bluewater Lagoon community! This well-maintained property offers a brand new roof, excellent curb appeal with both side and front parking, plus flowing flooring throughout for a clean, cohesive feel. Step inside to an open floor plan perfect for comfortable living and entertaining. The spacious primary suite features a separate soaking tub and shower for added relaxation. The kitchen includes convenient in-home laundry access, making daily routines a breeze. Enjoy Arizona evenings on the covered patio, where you can take in beautiful mountain and sunset views. The fully fenced yard provides a safe space for kids and pets to play. Homes like this don't come up often come take a look today!

10. 2025-12-05
    listed $205,000 Active 809-char remark

    Show marketing remark (809 chars)

    ON LEASED LAND Low $111.00 lease Nicely upgraded 3-bedroom, 2-bath manufactured home in the desirable Bluewater Lagoon community! This well-maintained property offers a brand new roof, excellent curb appeal with both side and front parking, plus flowing flooring throughout for a clean, cohesive feel. Step inside to an open floor plan perfect for comfortable living and entertaining. The spacious primary suite features a separate soaking tub and shower for added relaxation. The kitchen includes convenient in-home laundry access, making daily routines a breeze. Enjoy Arizona evenings on the covered patio, where you can take in beautiful mountain and sunset views. The fully fenced yard provides a safe space for kids and pets to play. Homes like this don't come up often—come take a look today!

11. 2022-12-09
    soldstatus $151,000 Closed
12. 2022-11-11
    status Pending
13. 2022-11-08
    status Active
14. 2022-08-16
    listed $154,999 Active
15. 2020-08-24
    soldstatus $103,000
16. 2020-07-19
    listed $109,000

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $24,151
• − Mortgage interest: −$10,923
• − Property taxes: −$2,925
• − Insurance: −$975
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,932
• − Management: −$1,932
• − Depreciation: −$5,673
• Taxable loss: −$209
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$50
• After-tax cash flow: $2,958/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Condition & rehab AI · 12 photos

Good 75/100 Cosmetic rehab

This well-maintained, upgraded manufactured home in Bluewater Lagoon offers a good condition with new flooring, updated cabinetry and fixtures, and a good curb appeal. It is ready for a new owner or tenant.

Value-add opportunities

• Both Paint exterior — Fresh paint can enhance curb appeal and value
• Both Replace blinds — New blinds can improve privacy and aesthetics
• Both Install new outdoor lighting — New lighting can improve safety and curb appeal

Renovation cost estimate screening

Value-add ROI direction

• Both Paint exterior — Fresh paint can enhance curb appeal and value ↑
• Both Replace blinds — New blinds can improve privacy and aesthetics ↑
• Both Install new outdoor lighting — New lighting can improve safety and curb appeal ↑

ⓘ Cost ranges are severity-bucket heuristics (US national rule-of-thumb). Get contractor quotes + a written scope before underwriting a rehab budget.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Parker Unified School District (4510)
• NCES district ID: 0405980
• Math proficiency: 18% ▼ -10.00%
• Reading proficiency: 18% ▼ -7.00%
• Median HH income: $34,354
• Composite: 14.76/100
• National rank: #9392
• State rank: #200 of 249 in AZ

Livability — Bluewater

• Score: 65/100
• State rank: #81
• US rank: #12872

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime A- Employment D+ Housing A+ Health & safety C- User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Bluewater, AZ
• Population (ZIP): 9,069

Population outlook (La Paz County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 18,409 people
• By 2030: 17,592 · -4.4%
• By 2040: 16,600 · -9.8%
• By 2050: 16,328 · -11.3%
• By 2075: 17,075 · -7.2%
• By 2100: 17,042 · -7.4%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Highly diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.72)
• Race & ethnicity: White 40% Hispanic / Latino 34% Native American 23% Two or more races 19% Asian 2%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 32%
• Common ancestry: Slovak 1% Lithuanian 1% Portuguese 1%
• Foreign-born: 10% · Canada
• Languages at home: 74% English-only · Spanish 21% Other Indo-European 1% Tagalog/Filipino 1%

Political lean MEDSL · La Paz

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+44.2) · D 27.6% · R 71.8%
• 2008→2024 swing: -15.7pp toward R · 2008: -28.5pp · 2024: -44.2pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+44.2 2020: R+38.8 2016: R+41.8 2012: R+32.2 2008: R+28.5

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -155.38%
• Current HPI: 198.2271
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 4.54%
• F500 in state: 20

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in AZ)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Technology	2	$13B
▸Mining / Metals	1	$23B
▸Environmental Services	1	$16B
▸Metals / Steel	1	$14B
▸Technology Distribution	1	$9B
▸Homebuilding	1	$8B

Price history

+78.9% since first listed

11 events — show timeline

• 2026-02-20 Relisted — LHAR
• 2026-02-20 Price Changed $195,000 WARDEX
• 2026-02-20 Price Changed $195,000 LHAR
• 2025-12-09 Listed $205,000 WARDEX
• 2025-12-05 Listed $205,000 LHAR
• 2022-12-09 Sold (MLS) $151,000 LHAR
• 2022-11-11 Pending — LHAR
• 2022-11-08 Relisted — LHAR
• 2022-08-16 Listed $154,999 LHAR
• 2020-08-24 Sold (MLS) $103,000 LHAR
• 2020-07-19 Listed $109,000 LHAR