3254 1st Ave · Wellsville, NY 14895

$145,900

3 bd · 1.5 ba · 1,368 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 145 Days on market

Built 1953 0.52 ac lot Est $174k · 16% under

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Why this score? — see what drove the C+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +15.3/30.0
• ARV discount +14.7/15.0
• Appreciation +10.0/10.0
• DSCR +4.7/10.0
• 1% rule +4.3/10.0
• Schools +4.0/10.0
• Livability +3.7/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0

Listing remarks

A Charming home ready for your personal updates! This property welcomes you with an enclosed sun porch leading into a spacious mudroom that includes first-floor laundry and a half bath. The main level features a functional kitchen, a separate dining area, and a comfortable living room. Upstairs you’ll find three bedrooms and a full bath. This corner lot property also includes a three-car garage with a workshop and a separate RV septic hook-up, offering great convenience and versatility.

Key facts

• Functional kitchen
• Half bath
• Spacious mudroom

Tags

• ENCLOSED SUN PORCH
• SPACIOUS MUDROOM
• FIRST-FLOOR LAUNDRY
• HALF BATH
• FUNCTIONAL KITCHEN
• SEPARATE DINING AREA

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/1.5-bath single-family listed at $146k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $53 ($632/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $136k (7.0% below list).
• Recommended offer: $128k (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 73/100 on livability (#336 in NY) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, health & safety A+; Watch: schools C-, crime C-, employment C-.
• Wellsville Central School District (town): math 42% / reading 53% proficiency, ranked #442 of 590 in NY (top 75%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Market conditions: 55 active listings in the ZIP; 87 units permitted in Allegany County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $16k of equity ($1k loan paydown + $15k appreciation (10.0% local appreciation)).
• Allegany County population projected at -26% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• At projected returns (10.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $41k cash investment doubles in ~3 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
• By year 3, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$39k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 145 days — a 12% lower offer ($128k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Current owner paid $68k; list at $146k implies a 116% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: built in 1953 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.

Recommended offer $128,392 (12.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 145 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Built in 1953 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
3. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
6. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
7. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.93% ✗
• Cap rate: 6.73%
• Cash-on-cash: 1.55%
• DSCR: 1.07
• GRM: 9.0

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $173,736
• Comps found: 3

Show comp detail 3 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
2986 Eastside Ave	0.45mi	3/2.0	1,246 (-9%)	18mo	$225,000	$181	47
117 Trapping Brook Rd	0.60mi	3/2.0	1,248 (-9%)	24mo	$142,000	$114	36
120 Trapping Brook Rd	0.61mi	3/1.0	1,218 (-11%)	21mo	$155,000	$127	34

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

10.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 25.4%
• Equity multiple: 3.03×
• Total profit: $82,842
• Equity at exit: $131,438

10-year hold

• IRR: 22.4%
• Equity multiple: 6.91×
• Total profit: $241,373
• Equity at exit: $283,452

Cash invested: $40,852 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 15 Strongly Tenant-Friendly
• State New York: 15 Strongly Tenant-Friendly · D+10
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

NYC rent stabilization (~1M units); 2019 HSTPA strengthened tenant rights; courts deeply backlogged.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 14895

• Home prices YoY: 6.9%
• Active inventory: 55
• Price-to-rent: 9.0×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,357 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$765
• Tax from tax record: −$193 /mo · $2,322/yr
• Insurance: −$61
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$285
• Net cashflow: $53

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,290

Max offer price $145,900

Occupancy floor 91%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $135	-5% $94	+0% $53	+5% $11	+10% $-30
Rent	-10% $-55	-5% $-1	+0% $53	+5% $106	+10% $160
Rate	-1.0pp $126	-0.5pp $90	base $53	+0.5pp $15	+1.0pp $-24

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $36,475
• Closing costs: $4,377
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 6 events

1. 2026-05-02
   status Pending
2. 2026-04-26
   historical Active Under Contract
3. 2026-04-16
   status Pending
4. 2026-01-07
   price $145,900
5. 2025-11-28
   listed $153,000 Active
6. 2015-10-29
   soldstatus $67,500

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast NY · Partial reset (capped growth)

• Current annual tax: $2,322 · $193/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $2,394 · $199/mo
• Expected delta: +$72/yr (+$6/mo · 3.1%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 3/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 2/10 Low 8 d/yr ≥89°F today · 19 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 1/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 1/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 0 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $16,284
• − Mortgage interest: −$8,173
• − Property taxes: −$2,322
• − Insurance: −$730
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,303
• − Management: −$1,303
• − Depreciation: −$4,244
• Taxable loss: −$1,790
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$429
• After-tax cash flow: $1,061/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Wellsville Central School District
• NCES district ID: 3630480
• Math proficiency: 42% ▼ -10.00%
• Reading proficiency: 53% ▲ 6.00%
• Median HH income: $39,964
• Composite: 39.71/100
• National rank: #3903
• State rank: #442 of 590 in NY

Livability — Wellsville

• Score: 73/100
• State rank: #336
• US rank: #5669

Category grades

Amenities D- Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime C- Employment C- Housing A+ Health & safety A+ User ratings D-

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Population (ZIP): 9,117

Population outlook (Allegany County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 45,362 people
• By 2030: 43,078 · -5.0%
• By 2040: 38,031 · -16.2%
• By 2050: 33,634 · -25.9%
• By 2075: 25,285 · -44.3%
• By 2100: 18,902 · -58.3%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (96%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 96% Two or more races 2%
• Common ancestry: Slovak 3% Italian 3% Romanian 2%
• Foreign-born: 1%
• Languages at home: 98% English-only · German/W. Germanic 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Allegany

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+43.2) · D 28.4% · R 71.6%
• 2008→2024 swing: -21.5pp toward R · 2008: -21.7pp · 2024: -43.2pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+43.2 2020: R+38.9 2016: R+42.3 2012: R+25.3 2008: R+21.7

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 18.16%
• Current HPI: 280.3569
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.60%
• F500 in state: 92

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in NY)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Financial Services	10	$950B
▸Consumer Goods	9	$162B
▸Insurance	4	$225B
▸Telecommunications	2	$144B
▸Pharmaceuticals	2	$112B
▸Media / Entertainment	2	$69B

Price history

+116.1% since first listed

6 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-02 Pending — UNYREIS
• 2026-04-26 Contingent — UNYREIS
• 2026-04-16 Pending — UNYREIS
• 2026-01-07 Price Changed $145,900 UNYREIS
• 2025-11-28 Listed $153,000 UNYREIS
• 2015-10-29 Sold (Public Records) $67,500 Public Records

Property tax history

-0.9%/yr

Latest (2025): $2,322 · -10.4% YoY. Source: county tax records.