9555B Aubrey Ln · Chunchula, AL 36521

$93,000

4 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,680 sqft · SingleFamily · 13 Days on market

Built 1990 5.00 ac lot

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Why this score? — see what drove the B- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +24.7/30.0
• Appreciation +10.0/10.0
• DSCR +8.0/10.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• 1% rule +6.4/10.0
• Livability +2.8/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Schools +2.3/10.0

Listing remarks

Welcome to secluded country living in Chunchula on approximately 5 beautiful acres! This charming modular home features a welcoming front deck, perfect for enjoying peaceful mornings and quiet evenings. Inside, you’ll find vinyl flooring, a cozy fireplace, and large windows that bring in plenty of natural light. The kitchen offers white cabinetry, a breakfast area, and a convenient pantry for extra storage. The primary suite includes a soaking tub, single vanity, and a separate shower, while two additional bedrooms share a full bathroom with a tub/shower combination. A dedicated laundry room adds to the home’s functionality, making this property a comfortable retreat with plenty

Key facts

• Large windows
• Front deck
• Vinyl flooring

Tags

• SECLUDED COUNTRY LIVING
• FRONT DECK
• VINYL FLOORING
• COZY FIREPLACE
• LARGE WINDOWS
• WHITE CABINETRY

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 4-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $93k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $194 ($2k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($1k rent vs $93k).

Location & tenants

• Location reads 56/100 on livability (#403 in AL) — a working-class tenant base; expect higher turnover. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing B; Watch: crime D, amenities F, commute F.
• Mobile County (urban): math 15% / reading 39% proficiency, ranked #81 of 129 in AL (top 63%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover; 67% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Zoned schools: J E Turner Elementary (math 16% / reading 50%, grade F, #323 of 627 statewide, top 52%, 532 students, 60% FRL); Mary G Montgomery High School (math 13% / reading 18%, grade F, #211 of 305 statewide, top 69%, 1,965 students, 53% FRL).
• Market conditions: 49 active listings in the ZIP; 1,678 units permitted in Mobile County in 2024 (264 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $10k of equity ($643 loan paydown + $9k appreciation (10.0% local appreciation)).
• Mobile County population projected to shrink 8% by 2050 — rents likely to lag national; underwrite the cash flow, not the appreciation.
• At projected returns (10.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $26k cash investment doubles in ~3 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
• By year 4, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$35k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Negotiation context

• Only 13 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; major wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→19/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $93,000

Questions for the listing agent

1. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
2. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
3. Crime grade is D in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
4. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
5. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
6. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.14% ✓
• Cap rate: 8.80%
• Cash-on-cash: 8.95%
• DSCR: 1.40
• GRM: 7.3

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $233,520
• Comps found: 6

Show comp detail 6 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
9555B Aubrey Ln	0.00mi	4/2.0	1,680 (0%)	0mo	$96,500	$57	100
9752 N Brighton Dr	0.46mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,800 (+7%)	8mo	$245,000	$136	55
9750 Brighton Ct	0.51mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,870 (+11%)	20mo	$227,000	$121	35
11040 Alver Miller Rd	0.34mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,431 (-15%)	24mo	$215,400	$151	35
10966 Brighton Dr	0.61mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,443 (-14%)	11mo	$200,000	$139	34
9819 Brighton Ct	0.55mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,475 (-12%)	19mo	$226,500	$154	33

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

10.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 30.8%
• Equity multiple: 3.42×
• Total profit: $63,038
• Equity at exit: $83,782

10-year hold

• IRR: 26.7%
• Equity multiple: 7.76×
• Total profit: $175,940
• Equity at exit: $180,679

Cash invested: $26,040 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 90 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Alabama: 90 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+15
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

Right-to-evict in 7 days for non-payment; no rent control; preempted statewide; courts move quickly.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 36521

• Home prices YoY: 13.5%
• Active inventory: 49
• Price-to-rent: 7.3×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,059 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$488
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$116 /mo · $1,395/yr
• Insurance: −$39
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$222
• Net cashflow: $194

Break-even live

Break-even rent $814

Max offer price $93,000

Occupancy floor 77%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $23,250
• Closing costs: $2,790
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 2 events

1. 2026-03-23
   status Pending
2. 2026-03-10
   listed $93,000 Active

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 7/10 Severe
• 🌡 Heat 8/10 Severe 7 d/yr ≥106°F today · 19 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 9/10 Extreme 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 1/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 0 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $12,713
• − Mortgage interest: −$5,209
• − Property taxes: −$1,395
• − Insurance: −$465
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,017
• − Management: −$1,017
• − Depreciation: −$2,705
• Taxable income: $904
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$217
• After-tax cash flow: $2,114/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Mobile County
• NCES district ID: 0102370
• Math proficiency: 15% ▼ -28.00%
• Reading proficiency: 39% ▬ 0.00%
• Median HH income: $42,455
• Composite: 22.9/100
• National rank: #8002
• State rank: #81 of 129 in AL

Livability — Chunchula

• Score: 56/100
• State rank: #403
• US rank: #22440

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime D Employment D- Housing B Health & safety F User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Population (ZIP): 6,060

Population outlook (Mobile County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 415,303 people
• By 2030: 411,755 · -0.9%
• By 2040: 399,670 · -3.8%
• By 2050: 382,616 · -7.9%
• By 2075: 337,353 · -18.8%
• By 2100: 283,391 · -31.8%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (87%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 87% Two or more races 5% Black 3% Hispanic / Latino 2% Native American 2% Asian 2%
• Common ancestry: Slovak 3% Italian 3% Lithuanian 1%
• Foreign-born: 2%
• Languages at home: 98% English-only · Other Indo-European 1% Spanish 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Mobile

• 2024 margin: R (+16.4) · D 41.3% · R 57.7%
• 2008→2024 swing: -7.7pp toward R · 2008: -8.7pp · 2024: -16.4pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+16.4 2020: R+11.9 2016: R+13.9 2012: R+9.3 2008: R+8.7

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 46.65%
• Current HPI: 391.2182
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.94%
• F500 in state: 4

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in AL)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Financial Services	1	$8B
▸Healthcare	1	$5B

Price history

2 events — show timeline

• 2026-03-23 Pending — GCMLS AL
• 2026-03-10 Listed $93,000 GCMLS AL