107 Royal Fern Ln · Statesboro, GA 30461

$345,591

5 bd · 3.5 ba · 2,618 sqft · SingleFamily · 36 Days on market

Built 2026 Excellent condition 10,019 sqft lot 2-car garage $58/mo HOA · 3% of rent

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Why this score? — see what drove the F grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Condition / age +5.0/5.0
• Cash flow +4.2/30.0
• Livability +3.4/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Schools +2.1/10.0
• 1% rule +0.5/10.0
• DSCR +0.0/10.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Key facts

• 0.23 acre lot
• 2 garage spots
• Built 2026

🏗️ New construction. The $345,591 list price is a builder figure, so every metric below is computed on the value from comparable previous sales — $371,149.

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 5-bed/3.5-bath single-family listed at $346k. Condition is rated excellent.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-1k ($-12k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $225k (34.8% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $204k (40.9% below list).
• Recommended offer: $204k (40.9% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 68/100 on livability (#151 in GA) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, health & safety A+, housing B+; Watch: amenities C-, crime D+, commute F.
• Bulloch County (rural): math 32% / reading 33% proficiency, ranked #85 of 174 in GA (top 49%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: Mattie Lively Elementary School (math 16% / reading 18%, grade F, #936 of 1,228 statewide, top 79%, 585 students, 76% FRL); William James Middle School (math 27% / reading 39%, grade F, #213 of 470 statewide, top 47%, 577 students, 66% FRL); Statesboro High School (math 15% / reading 12%, grade F, #325 of 424 statewide, top 78%, 1,760 students, 63% FRL).
• Market conditions: 396 active listings in the ZIP; solid renter incomes; 668 units permitted in Bulloch County in 2024 (6 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 31% of the median local income ($80k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $3k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $11k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Bulloch County population projected at +18% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 36 days — a 3% lower offer ($335k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 80% chance of damaging wind over 30y; moderate wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→18/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $204,413 (40.9% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 36 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 41% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
6. Crime grade is D in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
7. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
8. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
9. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
10. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.55% ✗
• Cap rate: 3.03%
• Cash-on-cash: -11.64%
• DSCR: 0.48
• GRM: 15.1

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $371,149
• List price: $345,591
• Delta: -6.89%
• Verdict: FAIR
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 8 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
315 Royal Fern Ln	0.00mi	5/3.5	2,618 (0%)	3mo	$350,000	$134	97
307 Royal Fern Ln	0.05mi	5/3.5	2,618 (0%)	2mo	$354,990	$136	96
309 Royal Fern Ln	0.04mi	4/2.5 (-1)	2,340 (-11%)	4mo	$339,990	$145	68
230 Magnolia Pl	1.06mi	4/2.5 (-1)	2,754 (+5%)	6mo	$449,900	$163	42
3107 Hawks Ct	0.87mi	4/3.0 (-1)	2,602 (-1%)	24mo	$415,000	$159	37
302 Browning Ct	0.80mi	4/2.5 (-1)	2,348 (-10%)	3mo	$330,000	$141	36
103 Peachtree Run	1.12mi	4/2.5 (-1)	2,412 (-8%)	8mo	$344,000	$143	36
517 Pleasant Point Rd	0.53mi	4/2.0 (-1)	3,029 (+16%)	12mo	$310,000	$102	30

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -37.6%
• Equity multiple: -0.20×
• Total profit: $-124,280
• Equity at exit: $55,339

10-year hold

• IRR: -55.0%
• Equity multiple: -0.83×
• Total profit: $-190,623
• Equity at exit: $32,090

Cash invested: $103,922 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 90 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Georgia: 90 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+3
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

Magistrate court evictions in 10-30 days; no rent control; preempted; few tenant protections.

Methodology + full state rankings →

Buyer's market Market conditions within 1.0 mi — comparable homes for sale

Active competition Active MLS

• For sale now: 24 active · 14 under contract
• Months of supply: 24.0 mo (4%/mo absorbed)
• Median asking: $318,820 ($145/sqft)
• Median days on market: 104 d
• This list price: 79% of active listings are priced below it
• ARV vs active asking: -2.3% vs current asking $/sqft

Closed sales set the value; these active listings set current market conditions and a practical price ceiling.

ZIP-level market 30461

• Active inventory: 396
• Price-to-rent: 14.1×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,044 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,946
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$464 /mo · $5,567/yr
• Insurance: −$155
• HOA: −$58
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$429
• Net cashflow: $-1,008

Break-even live

Break-even rent $3,320

Max offer price $225,280

Occupancy floor —

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $-752	-5% $-880	+0% $-1,008	+5% $-1,136	+10% $-1,265
Rent	-10% $-1,170	-5% $-1,089	+0% $-1,008	+5% $-927	+10% $-847
Rate	-1.0pp $-821	-0.5pp $-914	base $-1,008	+0.5pp $-1,104	+1.0pp $-1,202

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $92,787
• Closing costs: $11,134
• Club membership (one-time): —
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Property features AI

Finance

• Other: Lot approximately 0.23 acresSubdivision: Fernhill Farms
• HOA & community: Homeowners association with annual fee of $700 (approximately $58.33/month)

Exterior

• Parking: Attached 2-car garage
• Utilities: Public waterPublic sewerUnderground utilities
• Home design: Single-family residenceTwo-storyNo common wallsDevelopment by D R Horton (Salem model)
• Construction: Concrete constructionSlab foundationNew constructionHome warranty included
• Exterior features: Under constructionHas a viewPlayground nearbyPark nearbyStreet lightsSidewalks

Interior

• Kitchen: DishwasherOvenRangeDisposal
• Bedrooms: One main-level bedroom
• Bathrooms: Three full bathroomsOne half bathroomTwo main-level bathrooms
• Heating & cooling: Central heating (natural gas)Central electric air conditioning
• Interior features: Breakfast barDouble vanityKitchen islandPantry
• Laundry & utility: Laundry room with washer hookupGas water heaterTankless water heater

Listing history 17 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $345,591 Active 36 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $345,591 Active 35 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $345,591 Active 34 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   days on market $345,591 Active 33 DOM
5. 2026-06-14
   days on market $345,591 Active 31 DOM
6. 2026-06-13
   days on market $345,591 Active 30 DOM
7. 2026-06-10
   days on market $345,591 Active 28 DOM
8. 2026-06-09
   days on market $345,591 Active 27 DOM
9. 2026-06-08
   days on market $345,591 Active 26 DOM
10. 2026-06-07
    days on market $345,591 Active 25 DOM
11. 2026-06-05
    days on market $345,591 Active 22 DOM
12. 2026-06-03
    days on market $345,591 Active 21 DOM
13. 2026-06-03
    days on market $345,591 Active 20 DOM
14. 2026-06-01
    days on market $345,591 Active 19 DOM
15. 2026-05-31
    days on market $345,591 Active 18 DOM
16. 2026-05-30
    days on market $345,591 Active 17 DOM
17. 2026-05-13
    listed $345,591 Active

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 5/10 Major
• 🌡 Heat 8/10 Severe 7 d/yr ≥112°F today · 18 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 8/10 Severe 80% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 1/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 0 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $24,530
• − Mortgage interest: −$20,790
• − Property taxes: −$5,567
• − Insurance: −$1,856
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,962
• − Management: −$1,962
• − HOA: −$696
• − Depreciation: −$10,797
• Taxable loss: −$19,101
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$4,584
• After-tax cash flow: $-7,512/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Condition & rehab AI · 30 photos

Excellent 100/100 None rehab

This new construction home is in excellent condition with no visible repairs needed. It offers a great opportunity for both resale and rental value with potential for minor updates to enhance curb appeal and modernize the home.

Value-add opportunities

• Both Painting the exterior and interior walls — Fresh paint can enhance curb appeal and interior aesthetics. ↑
• Both Landscaping improvements — A well-maintained yard can increase both resale and rental value. ↑
• Both Adding smart home features — Smart home features can increase both resale and rental value by making the home more modern and energy-efficient. ↑

F Composite school gradezoned avg 21/100

Zoned Schools

Elementary Mattie Lively Elementary School F GA #936/1,228 Nat'l #35,191/41,679 Middle William James Middle School F GA #213/470 Nat'l #8,059/14,009 High Statesboro High School F GA #325/424 Nat'l #15,655/17,239

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Bulloch County
• NCES district ID: 1300630
• Math proficiency: 32% ▼ -11.00%
• Reading proficiency: 33% ▼ -8.00%
• Median HH income: $36,335
• Composite: 26.97/100
• National rank: #7074
• State rank: #85 of 174 in GA

C Composite livability gradescore 68/100

Livability — Statesboro

• Score: 68/100
• State rank: #151
• US rank: #9809

Category grades

Amenities C- Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime D+ Employment F Housing B+ Health & safety A+ User ratings F

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Statesboro, GA
• County: Bulloch County · 79,935 people
• City population: 67,164
• Metro: Statesboro, GA
• Population (ZIP): 17,447
• Household income: $80,224
• Rent vs Own: 28.1% rent · 71.9% own
• Severe rent burden: 13% of renters

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Population outlook (Bulloch County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 79,935 people
• By 2030: 83,796 · +4.8%
• By 2040: 89,717 · +12.2%
• By 2050: 94,558 · +18.3%
• By 2075: 104,376 · +30.6%
• By 2100: 112,857 · +41.2%

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Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (69%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 69% Black 23% Hispanic / Latino 4% Two or more races 4% Asian 1%
• Common ancestry: Italian 4% Serbian 2% Slovak 1%
• Foreign-born: 5% · Canada, Vietnam
• Languages at home: 95% English-only · Spanish 3%

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Political lean MEDSL · Bulloch

• 2024 margin: Strong R (+29.0) · D 35.3% · R 64.3%
• 2008→2024 swing: -9.8pp toward R · 2008: -19.2pp · 2024: -29.0pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+29.0 2020: R+23.7 2016: R+23.4 2012: R+19.1 2008: R+19.2

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -100.47%
• Current HPI: 184.7341
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: Statesboro, GA
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.66%
• F500 in state: 28

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Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in GA)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Paper / Packaging	2	$29B
▸Retail	1	$160B
▸Transportation / Logistics	1	$91B
▸Airlines	1	$62B
▸Consumer Goods	1	$47B
▸Utilities	1	$25B

Property features AI

Finance

• Other: Lot approximately 0.23 acresSubdivision: Fernhill Farms
• HOA & community: Homeowners association with annual fee of $700 (approximately $58.33/month)

Exterior

• Parking: Attached 2-car garage
• Utilities: Public waterPublic sewerUnderground utilities
• Home design: Single-family residenceTwo-storyNo common wallsDevelopment by D R Horton (Salem model)
• Construction: Concrete constructionSlab foundationNew constructionHome warranty included
• Exterior features: Under constructionHas a viewPlayground nearbyPark nearbyStreet lightsSidewalks

Interior

• Kitchen: DishwasherOvenRangeDisposal
• Bedrooms: One main-level bedroom
• Bathrooms: Three full bathroomsOne half bathroomTwo main-level bathrooms
• Heating & cooling: Central heating (natural gas)Central electric air conditioning
• Interior features: Breakfast barDouble vanityKitchen islandPantry
• Laundry & utility: Laundry room with washer hookupGas water heaterTankless water heater

Price history

1 event — show timeline

• 2026-05-13 Listed $345,591 Hive MLS