1336 NE Simpson Ln · Myrtle Creek, OR 97457

$129,900

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,536 sqft · Other public records · 67 Days on market

Built 2008 0.46 ac lot $85/sqft · 63% below area

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Why this score? — see what drove the B- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +30.0/30.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• 1% rule +9.2/10.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Livability +3.6/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Schools +2.3/10.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

INVESTOR SPECIAL! Looking for your next project but want the heavy lifting already started? Power has been paid for and is awaiting final approval. Electrical wiring is run throughout the home, and plumbing is in place for the lower level, giving you a meaningful head start on the finish work. With 1,536 square feet, this is a true blank canvas ready for your vision, whether you're planning a flip, rental, or a place to make your own. Set on .46 acres, the property offers elbow room while still being close to town for everyday conveniences. Water and sewer are available at the street, making the next steps that much more straightforward. The structure is up, the groundwork is in, now it’s ready for someone to take it the rest of the way. Sale included two exterior doors, exterior paint, and all unused building materials! Schedule your tour today!

Key facts

• Plumbing in place
• Electrical wiring
• 0.46 acre lot

Tags

• ELECTRICAL WIRING
• PLUMBING IN PLACE
• WATER AND SEWER AVAILABLE

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath other listed at $130k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $615 ($7k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $130k).
• Recommended offer: $122k (6.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 12.0% vs local median 3.2% in Myrtle Creek — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 72/100 on livability (#107 in OR) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, health & safety A+; Watch: schools F, amenities F, commute F.
• South Umpqua SD 19 (town): math 21% / reading 34% proficiency, ranked #51 of 58 in OR (top 88%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover; 61% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Market conditions: 125 active listings in the ZIP; 2 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; 190 units permitted in Douglas County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $898 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $4k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Douglas County population projected at -13% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $36k cash investment doubles in ~6 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 67 days — a 6% lower offer ($122k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 5 sale attempts since 11y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: severe wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→15/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $122,106 (6.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 67 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 6% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
5. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
6. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
7. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.42% ✓
• Cap rate: 11.97%
• Cash-on-cash: 20.29%
• DSCR: 1.90
• GRM: 5.9

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $355,592
• List price: $129,900
• Delta: -63.47%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 12.5%
• Equity multiple: 1.50×
• Total profit: $18,112
• Equity at exit: $19,369

10-year hold

• IRR: 21.4%
• Equity multiple: 2.82×
• Total profit: $66,184
• Equity at exit: $11,231

Cash invested: $36,372 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 28 Tenant-Leaning
• State Oregon: 28 Tenant-Leaning · D+6
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

SB608 (2019): statewide rent cap (7% + CPI) and just-cause for tenancies > 1 yr. Portland has relocation assistance ordinance.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 97457

• Home prices YoY: -18.1%
• Active inventory: 125
• Price-to-rent: 5.9×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,847 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$681
• Tax from tax record: −$109 /mo · $1,309/yr
• Insurance: −$54
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$388
• Net cashflow: $615

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,069

Max offer price $129,900

Occupancy floor 62%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $688	-5% $652	+0% $615	+5% $578	+10% $541
Rent	-10% $469	-5% $542	+0% $615	+5% $688	+10% $761
Rate	-1.0pp $680	-0.5pp $648	base $615	+0.5pp $581	+1.0pp $547

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $32,475
• Closing costs: $3,897
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 2 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
999 NE Broadway St Myrtle Creek, OR	3.0	2.0	1520	$1,750	$1.15	44d	1	0.32mi
501 NE Broadway St Myrtle Creek, OR	3.0	2.0	1326	$2,095	$1.58	44d	1	0.72mi

Listing history 29 events

1. 2026-06-19
   days on market $129,900 Active 67 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   days on market $129,900 Active 66 DOM
3. 2026-06-17
   days on market $129,900 Active 65 DOM
4. 2026-06-16
   days on market $129,900 Active 64 DOM
5. 2026-06-15
   days on market $129,900 Active 63 DOM
6. 2026-06-14
   days on market $129,900 Active 61 DOM
7. 2026-06-12
   days on market $129,900 Active 60 DOM
8. 2026-06-09
   days on market $129,900 Active 57 DOM
9. 2026-06-08
   days on market $129,900 Active 56 DOM
10. 2026-06-07
    days on market $129,900 Active 55 DOM
11. 2026-06-05
    days on market $129,900 Active 52 DOM
12. 2026-06-02
    days on market $129,900 Active 50 DOM
13. 2026-06-01
    days on market $129,900 Active 49 DOM
14. 2026-05-31
    days on market $129,900 Active 48 DOM
15. 2026-05-30
    days on market $129,900 Active 47 DOM
16. 2026-05-14
    price $129,900 864-char remark

    Show marketing remark (864 chars)

    INVESTOR SPECIAL! Looking for your next project but want the heavy lifting already started? Power has been paid for and is awaiting final approval. Electrical wiring is run throughout the home, and plumbing is in place for the lower level, giving you a meaningful head start on the finish work. With 1,536 square feet, this is a true blank canvas ready for your vision, whether you're planning a flip, rental, or a place to make your own. Set on .46 acres, the property offers elbow room while still being close to town for everyday conveniences. Water and sewer are available at the street, making the next steps that much more straightforward. The structure is up, the groundwork is in, now it’s ready for someone to take it the rest of the way. Sale included two exterior doors, exterior paint, and all unused building materials! Schedule your tour today!

17. 2026-04-13
    listed $134,900 Active 864-char remark

    Show marketing remark (864 chars)

    INVESTOR SPECIAL! Looking for your next project but want the heavy lifting already started? Power has been paid for and is awaiting final approval. Electrical wiring is run throughout the home, and plumbing is in place for the lower level, giving you a meaningful head start on the finish work. With 1,536 square feet, this is a true blank canvas ready for your vision, whether you're planning a flip, rental, or a place to make your own. Set on .46 acres, the property offers elbow room while still being close to town for everyday conveniences. Water and sewer are available at the street, making the next steps that much more straightforward. The structure is up, the groundwork is in, now it’s ready for someone to take it the rest of the way. Sale included two exterior doors, exterior paint, and all unused building materials! Schedule your tour today!

18. 2025-09-23
    soldstatus $120,000 Closed 128-char remark

    Show marketing remark (128 chars)

    THIS ONE IS A MUST SEE! 1536 SQ.FT. 2 STORY BLANK CANVAS ON .46 ACRES. COME FINISH YOUR DREAM HOME. UTILITIES ARE AT THE STREET.

19. 2025-09-23
    soldstatus $120,000

    Show marketing remark (128 chars)

    THIS ONE IS A MUST SEE! 1536 SQ.FT. 2 STORY BLANK CANVAS ON .46 ACRES. COME FINISH YOUR DREAM HOME. UTILITIES ARE AT THE STREET.

20. 2025-08-07
    status Pending 128-char remark

    Show marketing remark (128 chars)

    THIS ONE IS A MUST SEE! 1536 SQ.FT. 2 STORY BLANK CANVAS ON .46 ACRES. COME FINISH YOUR DREAM HOME. UTILITIES ARE AT THE STREET.

21. 2025-05-05
    status Active 128-char remark

    Show marketing remark (128 chars)

    THIS ONE IS A MUST SEE! 1536 SQ.FT. 2 STORY BLANK CANVAS ON .46 ACRES. COME FINISH YOUR DREAM HOME. UTILITIES ARE AT THE STREET.

22. 2025-04-30
    status Pending 128-char remark

    Show marketing remark (128 chars)

    THIS ONE IS A MUST SEE! 1536 SQ.FT. 2 STORY BLANK CANVAS ON .46 ACRES. COME FINISH YOUR DREAM HOME. UTILITIES ARE AT THE STREET.

23. 2025-03-14
    listed $142,000 Active 128-char remark

    Show marketing remark (128 chars)

    THIS ONE IS A MUST SEE! 1536 SQ.FT. 2 STORY BLANK CANVAS ON .46 ACRES. COME FINISH YOUR DREAM HOME. UTILITIES ARE AT THE STREET.

24. 2016-09-23
    soldstatus $85,000 Sold
25. 2016-09-23
    soldstatus $85,000 Sold
26. 2016-05-04
    status Pending
27. 2016-05-04
    status Pending
28. 2015-06-03
    listed $89,900 Active
29. 2015-06-03
    listed $89,900 Active

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast OR · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $1,309 · $109/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $1,309 · $109/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 9/10 Extreme
• 🌡 Heat 5/10 Major 7 d/yr ≥95°F today · 15 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 1/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 9/10 Extreme 13 unhealthy d/yr today · 14 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $22,168
• − Mortgage interest: −$7,276
• − Property taxes: −$1,309
• − Insurance: −$650
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,773
• − Management: −$1,773
• − Depreciation: −$3,779
• Taxable income: $5,607
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$1,346
• After-tax cash flow: $6,034/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: South Umpqua SD 19
• NCES district ID: 4111610
• Math proficiency: 21% ▼ -5.00%
• Reading proficiency: 34% ▼ -12.00%
• Median HH income: $38,796
• Composite: 23.01/100
• National rank: #7976
• State rank: #51 of 58 in OR

Livability — Myrtle Creek

• Score: 72/100
• State rank: #107
• US rank: #5976

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime C Employment C Housing A+ Health & safety A+ User ratings A+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Myrtle Creek, OR
• Population (ZIP): 10,158

Population outlook (Douglas County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 105,191 people
• By 2030: 102,664 · -2.4%
• By 2040: 96,668 · -8.1%
• By 2050: 91,279 · -13.2%
• By 2075: 79,395 · -24.5%
• By 2100: 66,107 · -37.2%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (87%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 87% Two or more races 8% Hispanic / Latino 6% Native American 1%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 4%
• Common ancestry: Portuguese 4% Lithuanian 3% Slovak 3%
• Foreign-born: 2% · Canada
• Languages at home: 97% English-only · Spanish 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Douglas

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+37.7) · D 29.9% · R 67.6% · Other 2.5%
• 2008→2024 swing: -17.6pp toward R · 2008: -20.1pp · 2024: -37.7pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+37.7 2020: R+37.5 2016: R+39.4 2012: R+27.6 2008: R+20.1

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -76.88%
• Current HPI: 348.9631
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.05%
• F500 in state: 2

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in OR)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Consumer Goods	1	$51B

Price history

+44.5% since first listed

14 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-14 Price Changed $129,900 RMLS
• 2026-04-13 Listed $134,900 RMLS
• 2025-09-23 Sold (Public Records) $120,000 Public Records
• 2025-09-23 Sold (MLS) $120,000 RMLS
• 2025-08-07 Pending — RMLS
• 2025-05-05 Relisted — RMLS
• 2025-04-30 Pending — RMLS
• 2025-03-14 Listed $142,000 RMLS
• 2016-09-23 Sold (MLS) $85,000 RMLS
• 2016-09-23 Sold (MLS) $85,000 RMLS
• 2016-05-04 Pending — RMLS
• 2016-05-04 Pending — RMLS
• 2015-06-03 Listed $89,900 RMLS
• 2015-06-03 Listed $89,900 RMLS

Property tax history

-2.4%/yr

Latest (2025): $1,309 · -2.7% YoY. Source: county tax records.