912 Ellen · Magnolia, AR 71753

$40,000

2 bd · 1.0 ba · 846 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 31 Days on market

Built 1949 6,969 sqft lot Est $37k · 7% over

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Why this score? — see what drove the C+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +30.0/30.0
• 1% rule +10.0/10.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• ARV discount +4.1/15.0
• Livability +3.2/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Schools +2.4/10.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

Attention investors and contractors this property presents an incredible opportunity to move a tenant right in. New steel doors, privacy fence, plumbing updated and new windows

Key facts

• Plumbing updated
• New steel doors
• Privacy fence

Tags

• NEW STEEL DOORS
• PRIVACY FENCE
• PLUMBING UPDATED
• NEW WINDOWS

Property features AI

Finance

• Financial info: New conventional financing may be available

Exterior

• Utilities: Public water; Public sewer; Insulated windows; Wireless internet available
• Home design: Single-family residence (composition exterior noted); Composition roof; Crawl space foundation
• Construction: Composition exterior and roof; Crawl space foundation
• Exterior features: Wood fence; Level lot; Paved road access; Inside city limits

Interior

• Kitchen: Free-standing stove
• Bedrooms: Formal living room (listed as an additional room)
• Flooring: Laminate flooring
• Bathrooms: 1 full bathroom
• Heating & cooling: Window air conditioning units; Attic fan; Gas space heater
• Interior features: Washer stays; Dryer stays; Gas water heater; Smoke detectors; Ceiling fans; Kitchen counters with Formica; Sheetrock and paneling walls/ceilings
• Laundry & utility: Washer included; Dryer included

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $40k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $799 ($10k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($1k rent vs $40k).
• Recommended offer: $39k (3.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 30.3% vs local median 3.1% in Magnolia — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 65/100 on livability (#144 in AR) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, health & safety A+, housing B; Watch: schools D+, crime F, amenities F.
• Magnolia School District (town): math 29% / reading 28% proficiency, ranked #164 of 238 in AR (top 69%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover; 63% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Market conditions: 38 active listings in the ZIP; 1 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; 14 units permitted in Columbia County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $277 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $1k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Columbia County population projected at -11% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $11k cash investment doubles in ~2 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 31 days — a 3% lower offer ($39k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Current owner paid $22k; list at $40k implies a 82% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: built in 1949 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.

Recommended offer $38,800 (3.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 31 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 3% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Built in 1949 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
5. Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 3.29% ✓
• Cap rate: 30.27%
• Cash-on-cash: 85.64%
• DSCR: 4.81
• GRM: 2.5

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $37,224
• Comps found: 1

Show comp detail 1 sale within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
823 W Main	0.12mi	2/1.0	833 (-2%)	15mo	$37,000	$44	80

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 86.1%
• Equity multiple: 4.97×
• Total profit: $44,425
• Equity at exit: $5,964

10-year hold

• IRR: 89.2%
• Equity multiple: 10.31×
• Total profit: $104,230
• Equity at exit: $3,458

Cash invested: $11,200 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 92 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Arkansas: 92 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+14
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

Only US state where non-payment is criminal. Strongly landlord-favorable; very few tenant protections.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 71753

• Home prices YoY: -31.1%
• Active inventory: 38
• Price-to-rent: 2.5×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,318 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$210
• Tax from tax record: −$15 /mo · $181/yr
• Insurance: −$17
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$277
• Net cashflow: $799

Break-even live

Break-even rent $306

Max offer price $40,000

Occupancy floor 34%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $10,000
• Closing costs: $1,200
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 1 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
1032 Mullins St Magnolia, AR	4.0	1.0–1.5	712	$1,318	$1.85	44d	1	0.64mi

Listing history 19 events

1. 2026-06-19
   days on market $40,000 Active 31 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   days on market $40,000 Active 30 DOM
3. 2026-06-17
   days on market $40,000 Active 29 DOM
4. 2026-06-16
   days on market $40,000 Active 28 DOM
5. 2026-06-15
   days on market $40,000 Active 27 DOM
6. 2026-06-14
   days on market $40,000 Active 25 DOM
7. 2026-06-12
   days on market $40,000 Active 24 DOM
8. 2026-06-09
   days on market $40,000 Active 21 DOM
9. 2026-06-08
   days on market $40,000 Active 20 DOM
10. 2026-06-07
    days on market $40,000 Active 19 DOM
11. 2026-06-07
    days on market $40,000 Active 18 DOM
12. 2026-06-04
    days on market $40,000 Active 15 DOM
13. 2026-06-02
    days on market $40,000 Active 14 DOM
14. 2026-06-01
    days on market $40,000 Active 13 DOM
15. 2026-05-31
    days on market $40,000 Active 12 DOM
16. 2026-05-31
    days on market $40,000 Active 11 DOM
17. 2026-05-18
    listed $40,000 New Listing
18. 2015-06-25
    soldstatus $22,000
19. 2000-12-06
    soldstatus $24,000

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast AR · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $181 · $15/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $256 · $21/mo
• Expected delta: +$75/yr (+$6/mo · 41.4%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $15,810
• − Mortgage interest: −$2,241
• − Property taxes: −$181
• − Insurance: −$200
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,265
• − Management: −$1,265
• − Depreciation: −$1,164
• Taxable income: $9,495
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$2,279
• After-tax cash flow: $7,313/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Magnolia School District
• NCES district ID: 0500044
• Math proficiency: 29% ▼ -12.00%
• Reading proficiency: 28% ▼ -10.00%
• Median HH income: $35,467
• Composite: 23.58/100
• National rank: #7850
• State rank: #164 of 238 in AR

Livability — Magnolia

• Score: 65/100
• State rank: #144
• US rank: #12675

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime F Employment F Housing B Health & safety A+ User ratings B-

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Magnolia, AR
• Population (ZIP): 16,089

Population outlook (Columbia County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 23,099 people
• By 2030: 22,536 · -2.4%
• By 2040: 21,489 · -7.0%
• By 2050: 20,536 · -11.1%
• By 2075: 20,459 · -11.4%
• By 2100: 19,797 · -14.3%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.55)
• Race & ethnicity: White 57% Black 36% Hispanic / Latino 4% Two or more races 3%
• Common ancestry: Italian 2% Serbian 2% Slovak 2%
• Foreign-born: 2% · Canada
• Languages at home: 96% English-only · Spanish 3%

Political lean MEDSL · Columbia

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+36.5) · D 31.1% · R 67.6% · Other 1.4%
• 2008→2024 swing: -12.4pp toward R · 2008: -24.1pp · 2024: -36.5pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+36.5 2020: R+31.2 2016: R+26.2 2012: R+23.6 2008: R+24.1

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -65.64%
• Current HPI: 145.3145
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.80%
• F500 in state: 10

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in AR)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Retail	1	$681B
▸Food / Agriculture	1	$53B
▸Retail / Energy	1	$22B
▸Transportation / Logistics	1	$12B
▸Energy	1	$4B

Price history

+66.7% since first listed

3 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-18 Listed $40,000 CARMLS
• 2015-06-25 Sold (Public Records) $22,000 Public Records
• 2000-12-06 Sold (Public Records) $24,000 Public Records

Property tax history

+4.5%/yr

Latest (2025): $181 · +5.4% YoY. Source: county tax records.