7239 San Luis St, #184 · Carlsbad, CA 92011

$499,900

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,568 sqft · Manufactured · 136 Days on market

Built 2025 Excellent condition $319/sqft · 30% above area Est $384k · 30% over

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Why this score? — see what drove the B- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +27.6/30.0
• DSCR +9.7/10.0
• 1% rule +7.5/10.0
• Schools +6.5/10.0
• Appreciation +5.9/10.0
• Condition / age +4.8/5.0
• Livability +3.9/5.0
• Rent growth +3.4/5.0
• ARV discount +0.0/15.0

Listing remarks MLS

Experience coastal luxury in this meticulously upgraded home within the premier 55+ gated community of Lakeshore Gardens in Carlsbad, CA. Featuring a modern, open-concept design, the kitchen boasts sleek quartz countertops, premium stainless steel appliances, and a stylish stainless steel farmhouse sink. The beautifully renovated home also includes spa-inspired, designed bathrooms. Enjoy resort-style living with ponds, a pool, and lush, mature landscaping just minutes from the beach. This home also comes with a 1-year bumper to bumper manufacturer's warranty.

Key facts

• Gated community
• Open-concept design
• Quartz countertops

Tags

• COASTAL LUXURY
• GATED COMMUNITY
• OPEN-CONCEPT DESIGN
• QUARTZ COUNTERTOPS
• STAINLESS STEEL FARMHOUSE SINK
• SPA-INSPIRED BATHROOMS

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath manufactured listed at $500k. Condition is rated excellent.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $1k ($18k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($6k rent vs $500k).
• Recommended offer: $440k (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 9.9% vs local median 2.1% in Carlsbad — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 78/100 on livability (#67 in CA, #2,526 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: schools A+, amenities A+, commute A+; Watch: health & safety D+, cost of living F.
• Carlsbad Unified (urban): math 68% / reading 76% proficiency, ranked #87 of 1,400 in CA (top 6%) — strong family-tenant draw, lease renewals of 3-5y typical; only 18% free/reduced lunch — higher-income household profile.
• Market conditions: Rents rising (+3.5%/yr); 96 active listings in the ZIP; 20 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals leasing fast (median 5d on market — plan ~1-2 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); high-income renter base; 11,759 units permitted in San Diego County in 2024 (7,244 in 5+ unit buildings).
• At $6,259/mo this rent would consume 47% of the median local household income ($159k/yr) (locally 714% of renters already pay >50% of income on rent) — very limited rent-growth headroom before tenants either downsize or default.

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $12k of equity ($3k loan paydown + $9k appreciation (1.8% local appreciation)).
• San Diego County population projected at +20% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• At projected returns (1.8% appreciation + 3.5% rent growth), your $140k cash investment doubles in ~5 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
• By year 3, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$31k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 136 days — a 12% lower offer ($440k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 2 sale attempts with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Current owner paid $150k; list at $500k implies a 233% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: extreme-heat days projected 7→18/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $439,912 (12.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 136 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. Schools are A-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
5. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
6. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
7. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.25% ✓
• Cap rate: 9.87%
• Cash-on-cash: 12.77%
• DSCR: 1.57
• GRM: 6.7

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $384,232
• List price: $499,900
• Delta: 30.10%
• Verdict: OVERPRICED
• Comps: 19 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
7313 San Luis St #236	0.08mi	3/2.0	1,548 (-1%)	5mo	$450,000	$291	90
7024 San Bartolo Unit 19 A	0.39mi	3/2.0	1,544 (-2%)	2mo	$425,000	$275	77
7311 San Luis St #237	0.04mi	3/2.0	1,359 (-13%)	1mo	$236,550	$174	75
7304 Santa Barbara St #325	0.16mi	2/2.0 (-1)	1,512 (-4%)	9mo	$481,000	$318	74
7318 San Luis St	0.02mi	2/2.0 (-1)	1,440 (-8%)	9mo	$285,000	$198	73
7224 San Benito St	0.26mi	2/2.0 (-1)	1,600 (+2%)	9mo	$400,000	$250	72
7207 Santa Barbara St #154	0.39mi	3/2.0	1,656 (+6%)	3mo	$513,300	$310	70
7203 San Luis St #166	0.41mi	2/2.5 (-1)	1,536 (-2%)	9mo	$375,000	$244	63
7106 Santa Cruz #56	0.36mi	2/2.0 (-1)	1,464 (-7%)	9mo	$390,000	$266	60
7140 Santa Rosa St	0.35mi	2/2.0 (-1)	1,440 (-8%)	6mo	$191,000	$133	60
7018 San Carlos St #60	0.46mi	2/2.0 (-1)	1,440 (-8%)	6mo	$392,000	$272	55
7002 San Bartolo St #30	0.53mi	3/2.0	1,781 (+14%)	2mo	$341,500	$192	51

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

1.75% appreciation · 3.54% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 16.9%
• Equity multiple: 1.90×
• Total profit: $126,319
• Equity at exit: $190,412

10-year hold

• IRR: 19.8%
• Equity multiple: 3.60×
• Total profit: $364,218
• Equity at exit: $269,094

Cash invested: $139,972 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 18 Strongly Tenant-Friendly
• State California: 18 Strongly Tenant-Friendly · D+13
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

AB1482 statewide rent cap (10% + CPI). Cities (SF/LA/Berkeley) layer stricter rules. Just-cause statewide.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 92011

• Home prices YoY: 0.4%
• Rents YoY: 3.5%
• Active inventory: 96
• Price-to-rent: 6.7×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $6,259 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$2,622
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$625 /mo · $7,498/yr
• Insurance: −$208
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$1,314
• Net cashflow: $1,490

Break-even live

Break-even rent $4,373

Max offer price $499,900

Occupancy floor 71%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $124,975
• Closing costs: $14,997
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 20 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
7290 Ponto Dr Carlsbad, CA	4.0	3.5	1756	$8,212	$4.68	1d	2	0.39mi
7064 Whitewater St Carlsbad, CA	3.0	2.5	2050	$8,500	$4.15	43d	1	0.53mi
6923 Whitecap Dr Carlsbad, CA	3.0	2.0	1246	$5,250	$4.21	43d	1	0.65mi
6910 Peachtree Rd Unit 1546353P Carlsbad, CA	3.0	2.0	1399	$6,129	$4.38	16d	1	0.69mi
820 Windcrest Dr Carlsbad, CA	3.0	2.0	1404	$5,581	$3.98	18d	1	0.89mi
6811 Alderwood Dr Carlsbad, CA	2.0	2.0	1292	$3,850	$2.98	43d	1	0.90mi
1967 N Vulcan Ave Encinitas, CA	1.0–2.0	1.0–2.0	929	$5,359	$5.77	1d	7	1.00mi
6790 Embarcadero Ln Carlsbad, CA	1.0–2.0	2.0–2.5	2104	$5,750	$2.73	5d	1	1.06mi
1859 N Vulcan Ave Encinitas, CA	2.0	2.5	1950	$7,000	$3.59	1d	1	1.16mi
916 Caminito Estrada Unit B Carlsbad, CA	2.0	2.0	1188	$3,650	$3.07	43d	1	1.19mi
1812 Parliament Rd Encinitas, CA	2.0	2.0	1467	$11,200	$7.63	1d	1	1.21mi
141 Stonesteps Way Encinitas, CA	2.0	2.5	1593	$6,500	$4.08	1d	1	1.36mi
925 Wind Drift Dr Carlsbad, CA	2.0	2.5	1110	$3,895	$3.51	43d	1	1.37mi
1703 Kennington Rd Encinitas, CA	3.0	2.0	1616	$6,195	$3.83	2d	1	1.40mi
6555 Sea Gate Rd Carlsbad, CA	2.0	2.0	1114	$4,095	$3.67	1d	3	1.41mi
256 Hillcrest Dr Encinitas, CA	2.0	2.0	1100	$5,750	$5.23	1d	1	1.42mi
156 Grandview St Unit 4 Encinitas, CA	2.0	1.5	1400	$4,800	$3.43	13d	1	1.43mi
1686 Neptune Ave Encinitas, CA	2.0	2.0	1268	$10,500	$8.28	1d	1	1.44mi
250 Hillcrest Dr Encinitas, CA	2.0	2.0	1100	$5,995	$5.45	16d	1	1.44mi
1680 Neptune Ave Encinitas, CA	4.0	3.5	1706	$25,000	$14.65	1d	1	1.44mi

Listing history 20 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $499,900 Active 136 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $499,900 Active 135 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $499,900 Active 134 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   days on market $499,900 Active 133 DOM
5. 2026-06-13
   days on market $499,900 Active 131 DOM
6. 2026-06-13
   days on market $499,900 Active 130 DOM
7. 2026-06-09
   days on market $499,900 Active 127 DOM
8. 2026-06-08
   days on market $499,900 Active 126 DOM
9. 2026-06-07
   days on market $499,900 Active 125 DOM
10. 2026-06-04
    days on market $499,900 Active 122 DOM
11. 2026-06-03
    days on market $499,900 Active 121 DOM
12. 2026-06-02
    days on market $499,900 Active 120 DOM
13. 2026-06-01
    days on market $499,900 Active 119 DOM
14. 2026-05-31
    days on market $499,900 Active 118 DOM
15. 2026-03-19
    price $499,900 565-char remark

    Show marketing remark (565 chars)

    Experience coastal luxury in this meticulously upgraded home within the premier 55+ gated community of Lakeshore Gardens in Carlsbad, CA. Featuring a modern, open-concept design, the kitchen boasts sleek quartz countertops, premium stainless steel appliances, and a stylish stainless steel farmhouse sink. The beautifully renovated home also includes spa-inspired, designed bathrooms. Enjoy resort-style living with ponds, a pool, and lush, mature landscaping just minutes from the beach. This home also comes with a 1-year bumper to bumper manufacturer's warranty.

16. 2026-02-02
    listed $520,000 Active 565-char remark

    Show marketing remark (565 chars)

    Experience coastal luxury in this meticulously upgraded home within the premier 55+ gated community of Lakeshore Gardens in Carlsbad, CA. Featuring a modern, open-concept design, the kitchen boasts sleek quartz countertops, premium stainless steel appliances, and a stylish stainless steel farmhouse sink. The beautifully renovated home also includes spa-inspired, designed bathrooms. Enjoy resort-style living with ponds, a pool, and lush, mature landscaping just minutes from the beach. This home also comes with a 1-year bumper to bumper manufacturer's warranty.

17. 2025-06-30
    soldstatus $150,000 Closed 211-char remark

    Show marketing remark (211 chars)

    Premier Community Location! Priced to Pull Off Only at this time! This property is located within Lakeshore Gardens a premier 55+ Community! Steps away from South Carlsbad State Beach! Investment Opportunity!

18. 2025-06-26
    status Pending 211-char remark

    Show marketing remark (211 chars)

    Premier Community Location! Priced to Pull Off Only at this time! This property is located within Lakeshore Gardens a premier 55+ Community! Steps away from South Carlsbad State Beach! Investment Opportunity!

19. 2025-06-12
    status Pending 211-char remark

    Show marketing remark (211 chars)

    Premier Community Location! Priced to Pull Off Only at this time! This property is located within Lakeshore Gardens a premier 55+ Community! Steps away from South Carlsbad State Beach! Investment Opportunity!

20. 2025-06-04
    listed $165,000 Active 211-char remark

    Show marketing remark (211 chars)

    Premier Community Location! Priced to Pull Off Only at this time! This property is located within Lakeshore Gardens a premier 55+ Community! Steps away from South Carlsbad State Beach! Investment Opportunity!

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 5/10 Major 7 d/yr ≥82°F today · 18 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 1/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 3/10 Moderate 4 unhealthy d/yr today · 4 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $75,107
• − Mortgage interest: −$28,002
• − Property taxes: −$7,498
• − Insurance: −$2,500
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$6,009
• − Management: −$6,009
• − Depreciation: −$14,543
• Taxable income: $10,547
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$2,531
• After-tax cash flow: $15,347/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Condition & rehab AI · 12 photos

Excellent 95/100 None rehab

This meticulously upgraded home in the premier 55+ gated community of Lakeshore Gardens in Carlsbad, CA, offers modern, open-concept design and spa-inspired bathrooms. It is move-in ready with a 1-year bumper to bumper manufacturer's warranty.

Value-add opportunities

• Both landscaping and patio furniture — enhances curb appeal and provides outdoor living space
• Both smart home integration — increases home's value and convenience
• Both smart thermostat — improves energy efficiency and comfort

Renovation cost estimate screening

Value-add ROI direction

• Both landscaping and patio furniture — enhances curb appeal and provides outdoor living space ↑
• Both smart home integration — increases home's value and convenience ↑
• Both smart thermostat — improves energy efficiency and comfort ↑

ⓘ Cost ranges are severity-bucket heuristics (US national rule-of-thumb). Get contractor quotes + a written scope before underwriting a rehab budget.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Carlsbad Unified
• NCES district ID: 0607500
• Math proficiency: 68% ▲ 2.00%
• Reading proficiency: 76% ▲ 2.00%
• Median HH income: $81,200
• Composite: 65.11/100
• National rank: #1068
• State rank: #87 of 1400 in CA

Livability — Carlsbad

• Score: 78/100
• State rank: #67
• US rank: #2526

Category grades

Amenities A+ Commute A+ Cost of living F Crime B Employment A+ Housing C+ Health & safety D+ User ratings A+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Carlsbad, CA
• County: San Diego County · 3,178,799 people
• City population: 114,373
• Metro: San Diego-Chula Vista-Carlsbad, CA
• Population (ZIP): 23,190
• Household income: $159,235
• Rent vs Own: 36.0% rent · 64.0% own
• Severe rent burden: 714.0

Population outlook (San Diego County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 3,678,185 people
• By 2030: 3,856,546 · +4.8%
• By 2040: 4,171,407 · +13.4%
• By 2050: 4,421,607 · +20.2%
• By 2075: 4,831,599 · +31.4%
• By 2100: 4,832,502 · +31.4%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Majority White (64%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 64% Hispanic / Latino 17% Two or more races 15% Asian 12%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 12%
• Common ancestry: Portuguese 4% Slovak 3% Italian 3%
• Foreign-born: 16% · Canada, China, Vietnam
• Languages at home: 82% English-only · Spanish 6% Chinese 4% German/W. Germanic 2%

Political lean MEDSL · San Diego

• 2024 margin: D (+16.8) · D 56.9% · R 40.1% · Other 2.9%
• 2008→2024 swing: +6.6pp toward D · 2008: 10.2pp · 2024: 16.8pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+16.8 2020: D+22.8 2016: D+17.8 2012: D+5.1 2008: D+10.2

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 1.75%
• Current HPI: 399.8502
• Rent YoY: ▲ 3.54%
• Metro: San Diego-Chula Vista-Carlsbad, CA
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.21%
• F500 in state: 116

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in CA)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Technology	27	$1,492B
▸Financial Services	3	$174B
▸Retail	3	$44B
▸Insurance	3	$26B
▸Media / Entertainment	2	$115B
▸Pharmaceuticals / Biotech	2	$62B

Price history

+203.0% since first listed

6 events — show timeline

• 2026-03-19 Price Changed $499,900 CRMLS
• 2026-02-02 Listed $520,000 CRMLS
• 2025-06-30 Sold (MLS) $150,000 SDMLS
• 2025-06-26 Pending — SDMLS
• 2025-06-12 Pending — SDMLS
• 2025-06-04 Listed $165,000 SDMLS