7445 NE 1051 Pvt Rd · Osceola, MO 64763

$79,900

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,216 sqft · Other · 93 Days on market

Built 1982 3.12 ac lot $29/mo HOA · 3% of rent ↓ 20% since listing

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Why this score? — see what drove the B grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +30.0/30.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• 1% rule +7.9/10.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Appreciation +7.4/10.0
• Livability +3.1/5.0
• Schools +2.6/10.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0

Listing remarks MLS

Peaceful country living on 3 M/L wooded acres-which is just minutes from the Talley Bend boat launch on Truman Lake. This property features a 3 bdrm, 2 ba mobil with a spacious screened-in porch, nice back deck with gazebo and several outbldings & 2 2-car carports for storage for your lake toys & equipment. The circle drive provides easy access for entering & exiting this property. This property is ideal for full-time living, a weekend retreat, or an investment property. Come take a look. All measurements to be verified by the buyers agent

Key facts

• Screened-in porch
• Gazebo
• Outbuildings

Tags

• WOODED ACRES
• SCREENED-IN PORCH
• BACK DECK
• GAZEBO
• OUTBUILDINGS
• CIRCLE DRIVE

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath other listed at $80k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $308 ($4k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($1k rent vs $80k).
• Recommended offer: $73k (9.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 61/100 on livability (#432 in MO) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, crime A-; Watch: schools F, amenities F, commute F.
• Lakeland R-III (rural): math 23% / reading 40% proficiency, ranked #269 of 324 in MO (top 83%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Market conditions: 9 active listings in the ZIP; 3 units permitted in St. Clair County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $4k of equity ($552 loan paydown + $4k appreciation (4.8% local appreciation)).
• St. Clair County population projected at -22% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• At projected returns (4.8% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $22k cash investment doubles in ~3 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
• By year 8, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$33k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 93 days — a 9% lower offer ($73k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Recommended offer $72,709 (9.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 93 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 9% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
3. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.29% ✓
• Cap rate: 10.91%
• Cash-on-cash: 16.50%
• DSCR: 1.73
• GRM: 6.5

CMA / ARV

No comps found within radius.

Projected returns pro-forma

4.83% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 26.8%
• Equity multiple: 2.66×
• Total profit: $37,225
• Equity at exit: $44,456

10-year hold

• IRR: 25.9%
• Equity multiple: 5.29×
• Total profit: $95,954
• Equity at exit: $76,055

Cash invested: $22,372 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 81 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Missouri: 81 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+10
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

Generally landlord-friendly; St Louis has some habitability requirements.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 64763

• Home prices YoY: 2.4%
• Active inventory: 9
• Price-to-rent: 6.5×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,031 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$419
• Tax from tax record: −$25 /mo · $305/yr
• Insurance: −$33
• HOA: −$29
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$216
• Net cashflow: $308

Break-even live

Break-even rent $641

Max offer price $79,900

Occupancy floor 65%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $19,975
• Closing costs: $2,397
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

HOA detail

• Monthly dues: $29 · $348/yr

Listing history 4 events

1. 2026-05-04
   status Pending 563-char remark

   Show marketing remark (563 chars)

   Peaceful country living on 3 M/L wooded acres-which is just minutes from the Talley Bend boat launch on Truman Lake. This property features a 3 bdrm, 2 ba mobil with a spacious screened-in porch, nice back deck with gazebo and several outbldings & 2 2-car carports for storage for your lake toys & equipment. The circle drive provides easy access for entering & exiting this property. This property is ideal for full-time living, a weekend retreat, or an investment property. Come take a look. All measurements to be verified by the buyers agent

2. 2026-04-21
   price $79,900 563-char remark

   Show marketing remark (563 chars)

   Peaceful country living on 3 M/L wooded acres-which is just minutes from the Talley Bend boat launch on Truman Lake. This property features a 3 bdrm, 2 ba mobil with a spacious screened-in porch, nice back deck with gazebo and several outbldings & 2 2-car carports for storage for your lake toys & equipment. The circle drive provides easy access for entering & exiting this property. This property is ideal for full-time living, a weekend retreat, or an investment property. Come take a look. All measurements to be verified by the buyers agent

3. 2026-04-06
   price $89,900 563-char remark

   Show marketing remark (563 chars)

   Peaceful country living on 3 M/L wooded acres-which is just minutes from the Talley Bend boat launch on Truman Lake. This property features a 3 bdrm, 2 ba mobil with a spacious screened-in porch, nice back deck with gazebo and several outbldings & 2 2-car carports for storage for your lake toys & equipment. The circle drive provides easy access for entering & exiting this property. This property is ideal for full-time living, a weekend retreat, or an investment property. Come take a look. All measurements to be verified by the buyers agent

4. 2026-01-28
   listed $99,900 Active 563-char remark

   Show marketing remark (563 chars)

   Peaceful country living on 3 M/L wooded acres-which is just minutes from the Talley Bend boat launch on Truman Lake. This property features a 3 bdrm, 2 ba mobil with a spacious screened-in porch, nice back deck with gazebo and several outbldings & 2 2-car carports for storage for your lake toys & equipment. The circle drive provides easy access for entering & exiting this property. This property is ideal for full-time living, a weekend retreat, or an investment property. Come take a look. All measurements to be verified by the buyers agent

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast MO · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $305 · $25/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $775 · $65/mo
• Expected delta: +$470/yr (+$39/mo · 154.4%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 3/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 4/10 Moderate 7 d/yr ≥107°F today · 17 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 2/10 Low 0% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 2 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $12,369
• − Mortgage interest: −$4,476
• − Property taxes: −$305
• − Insurance: −$400
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$990
• − Management: −$990
• − HOA: −$348
• − Depreciation: −$2,324
• Taxable income: $2,538
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$609
• After-tax cash flow: $3,083/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Lakeland R-III
• NCES district ID: 2910520
• Math proficiency: 23% ▼ -6.00%
• Reading proficiency: 40% ▼ -1.00%
• Median HH income: $32,340
• Composite: 25.69/100
• National rank: #7388
• State rank: #269 of 324 in MO

Livability — Osceola

• Score: 61/100
• State rank: #432
• US rank: #17848

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime A- Employment F Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Population (ZIP): 1,646

Population outlook (St. Clair County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 8,710 people
• By 2030: 8,281 · -4.9%
• By 2040: 7,481 · -14.1%
• By 2050: 6,814 · -21.8%
• By 2075: 5,836 · -33.0%
• By 2100: 4,989 · -42.7%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (95%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 95% Two or more races 3% Hispanic / Latino 2% Black 1%
• Common ancestry: Slovak 4% Iranian 2% Italian 1%
• Foreign-born: 2%
• Languages at home: 99% English-only · German/W. Germanic 1%

Political lean MEDSL · St. Clair

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+60.6) · D 19.2% · R 79.8%
• 2008→2024 swing: -38.7pp toward R · 2008: -21.9pp · 2024: -60.6pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+60.6 2020: R+59.2 2016: R+55.4 2012: R+33.7 2008: R+21.9

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 4.83%
• Current HPI: 205.7999
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 1.84%
• F500 in state: 20

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in MO)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Healthcare	1	$163B
▸Insurance	1	$21B
▸Industrial Technology	1	$17B
▸Retail	1	$16B
▸Industrial Distribution	1	$10B
▸Utilities	1	$9B

Price history

-20.0% since first listed

4 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-04 Pending — WCAR
• 2026-04-21 Price Changed $79,900 WCAR
• 2026-04-06 Price Changed $89,900 WCAR
• 2026-01-28 Listed $99,900 WCAR

Property tax history

+1.4%/yr

Latest (2024): $305 · +0.6% YoY. Source: county tax records.