🏗️ New Construction
10692 Prairie Lake Dr · Apison, TN
Flood risk No data
- FEMA flood zone
- —
- Chance of flooding over 30 yrs
- —
- Est. flood insurance / yr
- —
Fire risk No data
- Est. fire insurance / yr
- —
Heat risk No data
- Hot days now (above threshold)
- —
- Hot days in 30 yrs
- —
Wind risk No data
- Chance of severe wind over 30 yrs
- —
Air-quality risk No data
- Unhealthy air days now
- —
- Unhealthy air days in 30 yrs
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Risk factors via First Street. Map © Google.
Why this score? — see what drove the F grade
The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).
- ARV discount +7.5/15.0
- Cash flow +5.8/30.0
- Schools +4.9/10.0
- Condition / age +4.8/5.0
- Livability +3.4/5.0
- Rent growth +2.5/5.0
- 1% rule +1.4/10.0
- DSCR +0.2/10.0
- Appreciation +0.0/10.0
$349,206
10692 Prairie Lake Dr · Apison, TN 37302
3 bd · 2.5 ba · 1,749 sqft · SingleFamily
· 162 Days on market
Built 2026
7,405 sqft lot
Garage
$58/mo HOA · 2% of rent
🖨 Deal sheet (PDF) 📄 Offer letter ✓ Due diligence
Listing remarks MLS
The Darwin floor plan is available at 10692 Prairie Lake Drive. It's a charming two-story home that offers an open-concept main level with a spacious kitchen, pantry, and island with countertop seating. The kitchen overlooks an expansive living area, a well-lit breakfast nook, and an outdoor patio. The foyer has a powder room for convenience. Moving to the upper level, you'll find a desirable primary bedroom with a walk-in closet and private bathroom. There are also two additional bedrooms, each with their own walk-in closet. An additional bathroom and laundry room complete the upstairs of this beautiful home. * D. R. Horton is an Equal Housing Opportunity Builder. Home and community information, including pricing, included features, terms, availability and amenities, are subject to change and prior sale at any time without notice or obligation. Pictures, photographs, colors, features, and sizes are for illustration purposes only and will vary from homes as built. Images may contain virtual staging.
Key facts
- 7,405 sq ft lot
- 2 garage spots
- Built 2026
Neighborhood map
Sold within
Property
Rental comp
Retail
Costco
Walmart
Transit
Schools
Stadiums
Fortune 500
· Circle radius: 6.0 mi
Loading POIs…
🏗️ New construction.
The $349,206 list price is a builder
figure, so every metric below is computed on the value from
comparable previous sales — $380,070.
What this means for you Summary
Snapshot
- This is a 3-bed/2.5-bath single-family listed at $349k. Condition is rated excellent.
Deal economics
- At list price, monthly cash flow is $-761 ($-9k/yr) — negative.
- To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $270k (22.7% below list).
- To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $244k (30.3% below list).
- Recommended offer: $244k (30.3% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
Location & tenants
- Location reads 67/100 on livability (#106 in TN) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: crime A+, employment A+, housing A+; Watch: amenities F, commute F, health & safety F.
- Hamilton County (urban): math 31% / reading 31% proficiency, ranked #42 of 139 in TN (top 30%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
- Zoned schools: Apison Elementary School (math 65% / reading 61%, grade B, #47 of 952 statewide, top 5%, 652 students, 0% FRL); East Hamilton Middle School (math 52% / reading 43%, grade C-, #24 of 333 statewide, top 7%, 1,007 students, 0% FRL); East Hamilton High School (math 16% / reading 54%, grade F, #39 of 332 statewide, top 12%, 1,265 students, 0% FRL) — zoned schools average 0% FRL vs 52% district-wide (52 pts lower); this property's tenant base skews higher-income than the district average.
- Zoned-school proficiency averages 48% at this address vs 31% district-wide (+18 pts) — the actual schools serving this property are materially stronger than the Hamilton County average implies; a family-tenant draw the district grade alone would hide.
- Market conditions: 220 active listings in the ZIP; 4 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals leasing fast (median 6d on market — plan ~1-2 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); solid renter incomes; 2,133 units permitted in Hamilton County in 2024 (405 in 5+ unit buildings).
Forward outlook
- Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $3k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $11k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
- Hamilton County population projected at +23% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
Negotiation context
- It's been on market 162 days — a 12% lower offer ($307k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
- 2 sale attempts with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
Recommended offer
$243,528
(30.3% below list)
Questions for the listing agent
- What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
- It's been on market 162 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 30% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
- What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
- Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
- Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
- Schools are B-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
- The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
- What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
- What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
- How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.
Investment metrics
- 1% rule
- 0.64% ✗
- Cap rate
- 3.89%
- Cash-on-cash
- -8.58%
- DSCR
- 0.62
- GRM
- 13.0
CMA / ARV
- ARV (median comp)
- $380,070
- List price
- $349,206
- Delta
- -8.12%
- Verdict
- FAIR
- Comps
- 20 within 1.0 mi
Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi
| Address | Dist | Beds/Ba | Sqft | Sold | Price | $/sf | Match |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10696 Prairie Lake Dr | 0.01mi | 4/2.0 (+1) | 1,764 (+1%) | 1mo | $325,000 | $184 | 90 |
| 10705 Prairie Lake Dr | 0.04mi | 4/2.0 (+1) | 1,764 (+1%) | 2mo | $349,900 | $198 | 88 |
| 10700 Prairie Lake Dr | 0.02mi | 3/2.0 | 1,618 (-8%) | 2mo | $348,120 | $215 | 83 |
| 10712 Prairie Lake Dr | 0.05mi | 4/2.0 (+1) | 1,852 (+6%) | 3mo | $347,500 | $188 | 78 |
| 10717 Prairie Lake Dr | 0.06mi | 4/2.0 (+1) | 1,618 (-8%) | 2mo | $325,000 | $201 | 76 |
| 10778 Upland Drive Dr | 0.17mi | 4/2.0 (+1) | 1,852 (+6%) | 4mo | $390,980 | $211 | 72 |
| 10784 Prairie Lake Dr | 0.13mi | 3/2.0 | 1,942 (+11%) | 6mo | $380,000 | $196 | 69 |
| 10773 Upland Drive Dr | 0.14mi | 4/2.5 (+1) | 1,991 (+14%) | 4mo | $380,140 | $191 | 62 |
| 10765 Upland Drive Dr | 0.13mi | 4/2.5 (+1) | 1,991 (+14%) | 5mo | $391,305 | $197 | 62 |
| 10849 Prairie Lake Dr | 0.27mi | 3/2.0 | 1,937 (+11%) | 7mo | $399,000 | $206 | 62 |
| 10786 Upland Drive Dr | 0.18mi | 4/2.5 (+1) | 1,991 (+14%) | 3mo | $375,000 | $188 | 61 |
| 10746 Upland Dr | 0.18mi | 4/2.5 (+1) | 1,991 (+14%) | 7mo | $383,000 | $192 | 58 |
Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.
Projected returns pro-forma
-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon
5-year hold
- IRR
- -31.4%
- Equity multiple
- -0.03×
- Total profit
- $-109,965
- Equity at exit
- $56,670
10-year hold
- IRR
- -35.0%
- Equity multiple
- -0.48×
- Total profit
- $-157,848
- Equity at exit
- $32,862
Cash invested: $106,420 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.
Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology
- Overall (STATE)
- 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
- State Tennessee
- 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+13
- County
- — inherits STATE
- City
- — inherits STATE
14-day notice (URLTA); generally landlord-favorable; Nashville court paced moderate.
Buyer's market
Market conditions
within 1.0 mi — comparable homes for sale
Active competition Active MLS
- For sale now
- 23 active · 19 under contract
- Months of supply
- 7.7 mo (13%/mo absorbed)
- Median asking
- $360,990 ($198/sqft)
- Median days on market
- 158 d
- This list price
- 22% of active listings are priced below it
- ARV vs active asking
- +9.5% vs current asking $/sqft
Closed sales set the value; these active listings set current market conditions and a practical price ceiling.
ZIP-level market 37302
- Home prices YoY
- -5.1%
- Active inventory
- 220
- Price-to-rent
- 11.9×
Monthly cashflow live
↻
- Estimated rent
- $2,435 medium interval (Pro) →
- Mortgage (P&I)
- −$1,993
- Tax est. 1.5%
- −$475 /mo · $5,701/yr
- Insurance
- −$158
- HOA
- −$58
- Lot rent
- −$0
- Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt
- −$511
- Net cashflow
- $-761
Break-even live
Break-even rent
$3,398
Max offer price
$269,994
Occupancy floor
—
Sensitivity live
| Price | -10% $-498 | -5% $-629 | +0% $-761 | +5% $-892 | +10% $-1,023 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Rent | -10% $-953 | -5% $-857 | +0% $-761 | +5% $-665 | +10% $-568 |
| Rate | -1.0pp $-569 | -0.5pp $-664 | base $-761 | +0.5pp $-859 | +1.0pp $-959 |
UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt
Financing live
Cash to close
- Down payment
- $95,018
- Closing costs
- $11,402
- Club membership (one-time)
- —
- Reserves months
- —
- Total cash needed
- —
Loan-product check · same deal, 3 products live
Conventional
25% down · 7.5% · 30yr
- Cash invested
- —
- Monthly P&I
- —
- Monthly cashflow
- —
- DSCR
- —
- Eligible?
- —
Personal DTI + credit; lowest rate.
DSCR
20% down · 8.5% · 30yr
- Cash invested
- —
- Monthly P&I
- —
- Monthly cashflow
- —
- DSCR
- —
- Eligible?
- —
No personal income docs; deal must DSCR.
Hard money
10% down · 12.0% · 12mo
- Cash invested
- —
- Monthly P&I
- —
- Monthly cashflow
- —
- DSCR
- —
- Eligible?
- —
Short-term bridge; refi at stabilization.
Rent comps 4 comps
| Address | Beds | Baths | Sqft | Rent | $/sqft | DOM | Units | Dist |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 3753 Hawks Creek Dr Apison, TN | 3.0 | 2.5 | 2164 | $2,995 | $1.38 | 109d | 1 | 0.76mi |
| 11114 E Brainerd Rd Apison, TN | 3.0 | 2.0 | 1216 | $1,800 | $1.48 | 0d | 1 | 1.00mi |
| 1408 Centerstone Ln Apison, TN | 4.0 | 2.5 | 2231 | $2,875 | $1.29 | 0d | 1 | 1.44mi |
| 10722 Bean Dr Collegedale, TN | 2.0 | 1.0 | 1102 | $1,500 | $1.36 | 6d | 1 | 1.50mi |
Property features AI
Finance
- Other
- Subdivision: Prairie Pass
- HOA & community
- Homeowners association with annual fee of $700 (approximately $58.33/month)
Exterior
- Parking
- Attached garage with garage door opener2 garage spacesKitchen-level access to garage
- Security
- Security systemSmoke detector(s)
- Utilities
- Public waterPublic sewer (sewer connected)Electricity availablePhone availableUnderground utilities
- Home design
- Single family residenceNew construction by D.R. HortonTwo levelsLevel lot; split possible
- Construction
- Fiber cement constructionShingle roofSlab foundationBuilt as new construction
- Exterior features
- DeckCovered porchPatio
Interior
- Kitchen
- RefrigeratorMicrowaveFree-standing gas rangeDishwasherDisposalPantryGranite counters
- Bedrooms
- Total rooms: 7
- Flooring
- CarpetVinyl
- Bathrooms
- 2 full bathrooms1 half bathroom
- Heating & cooling
- Central heating (natural gas)Central air conditioning
- Interior features
- Granite countersHigh ceilingsLow-flow plumbing fixturesPantryWalk-in closet(s)Insulated and low-emissivity windows with window treatmentsGas log fireplace in the great room
- Laundry & utility
- Laundry room with washer and dryer hookups (electric and gas dryer hookups)Tankless water heaterGas water heater
Listing history 50 events
-
2026-09-23days on market $349,206 Active 162 DOM
-
2026-09-22days on market $349,206 Active 161 DOM
-
2026-09-21days on market $349,206 Active 160 DOM
-
2026-09-20days on market $349,206 Active 159 DOM
-
2026-09-18days on market $349,206 Active 157 DOM
-
2026-09-17days on market $349,206 Active 156 DOM
-
2026-09-16days on market $349,206 Active 155 DOM
-
2026-09-15days on market $349,206 Active 154 DOM
-
2026-09-14days on market $349,206 Active 153 DOM
-
2026-09-13days on market $349,206 Active 152 DOM
-
2026-09-13days on market $349,206 Active 151 DOM
-
2026-09-11days on market $349,206 Active 150 DOM
-
2026-09-05days on market $349,206 Active 144 DOM
-
2026-09-04days on market $349,206 Active 143 DOM
-
2026-09-03days on market $349,206 Active 142 DOM
-
2026-08-31days on market $349,206 Active 139 DOM
-
2026-08-30days on market $349,206 Active 138 DOM
-
2026-08-29days on market $349,206 Active 137 DOM
-
2026-08-28days on market $349,206 Active 136 DOM
-
2026-08-27days on market $349,206 Active 135 DOM
-
2026-08-25days on market $349,206 Active 133 DOM
-
2026-08-24days on market $349,206 Active 132 DOM
-
2026-08-23days on market $349,206 Active 131 DOM
-
2026-08-22days on market $349,206 Active 130 DOM
-
2026-08-21days on market $349,206 Active 129 DOM
-
2026-08-20days on market $349,206 Active 128 DOM
-
2026-08-19days on market $349,206 Active 127 DOM
-
2026-08-18days on market $349,206 Active 126 DOM
-
2026-08-17days on market $349,206 Active 125 DOM
-
2026-08-16days on market $349,206 Active 124 DOM
-
2026-08-15days on market $349,206 Active 123 DOM
-
2026-08-14days on market $349,206 Active 122 DOM
-
2026-08-13days on market $349,206 Active 121 DOM
-
2026-08-12days on market $349,206 Active 120 DOM
-
2026-08-11days on market $349,206 Active 119 DOM
-
2026-08-10days on market $349,206 Active 118 DOM
-
2026-08-09days on market $349,206 Active 117 DOM
-
2026-08-08days on market $349,206 Active 116 DOM
-
2026-08-07days on market $349,206 Active 115 DOM
-
2026-08-06days on market $349,206 Active 114 DOM
-
2026-08-05days on market $349,206 Active 113 DOM
-
2026-08-04days on market $349,206 Active 112 DOM
-
2026-08-03pricedays on market $349,206 Active 111 DOM
-
2026-07-31days on market $356,205 Active 108 DOM
-
2026-07-29days on market $356,205 Active 106 DOM
-
2026-07-27days on market $356,205 Active 104 DOM
-
2026-07-25days on market $356,205 Active 102 DOM
-
2026-07-24days on market $356,205 Active 101 DOM
-
2026-07-23days on market $356,205 Active 100 DOM
-
2026-07-22days on market $356,205 Active 99 DOM
ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot
backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.
Nearby sold comps map
Loading sold comps map…
Walkable amenities ~0.75 mi
Loading nearby amenities…
Taxation est. · year 1
- Rental income
- $29,223
- − Mortgage interest
- −$21,290
- − Property taxes
- −$5,701
- − Insurance
- −$1,900
- − Repairs & maintenance
- −$2,338
- − Management
- −$2,338
- − HOA
- −$696
- − Depreciation
- −$11,057
- Taxable loss
- −$16,096
combined federal + state — saved on this device
- Est. tax savings @ 24.0%
- +$3,863
- After-tax cash flow
- $-5,265/yr
For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.
Condition & rehab AI · 13 photos
95/100
None rehab
This home is in excellent condition with a modern and well-maintained interior and exterior. It is move-in ready and would benefit from some exterior painting and landscaping to further enhance its curb appeal and value.
Value-add opportunities
- Both Painting exterior siding — Enhances curb appeal and value ↑
- Both Landscaping and shrubbery — Improves curb appeal and enhances property value ↑
- Both Replace carpet with hardwood in bedrooms — Hardwood floors are more durable and aesthetically pleasing ↑
F
Composite school gradezoned avg 48/100
Zoned Schools
Elementary
Apison Elementary School
B
TN #47/952
Nat'l #5,998/41,679
Middle
East Hamilton Middle School
C-
TN #24/333
Nat'l #4,042/14,009
High
East Hamilton High School
F
TN #39/332
Nat'l #9,567/17,239
Schools (NCES district)
- District
- Hamilton County
- NCES district ID
- 4701590
- Math proficiency
- 31% ▼ -10.00%
- Reading proficiency
- 31% ▼ -3.00%
- Median HH income
- $47,456
- Composite
- 26.8/100
- National rank
- #7122
- State rank
- #42 of 139 in TN
C
Composite livability gradescore 67/100
Livability — Apison
- Score
- 67/100
- State rank
- #106
- US rank
- #10827
Category grades
Amenities F
Commute F
Cost of living A
Crime A+
Employment A+
Housing A+
Health & safety F
User ratings A
Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.
Census & demographics
- Census place
- Apison, TN
- County
- Hamilton · 393,784 people
- City population
- 5,253
- Metro
- Chattanooga, TN-GA
- Population (ZIP)
- 5,253
- Household income
- $103,578
- Rent vs Own
- Severe rent burden
- 3% of renters
Population outlook (Hamilton County) Hauer SSP2
- Today (2025)
- 393,784 people
- By 2030
- 412,983 · +4.9%
- By 2040
- 449,502 · +14.1%
- By 2050
- 484,341 · +23.0%
- By 2075
- 565,746 · +43.7%
- By 2100
- 618,394 · +57.0%
Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023
- Neighborhood character
- Predominantly White (83%)
- Race & ethnicity
- White 83% Two or more races 5% Asian 4% Hispanic / Latino 4% Black 3%
- Common ancestry
- Slovak 6% Italian 5% Portuguese 2%
- Foreign-born
- 5% · South Korea, Canada
- Languages at home
- 93% English-only · Spanish 3% Russian/Polish/Slavic 2% Korean 1%
Political lean MEDSL · Hamilton
- 2024 margin
- R (+13.1) · D 42.7% · R 55.7% · Other 1.6%
- 2008→2024 swing
- -1.2pp toward R · 2008: -11.8pp · 2024: -13.1pp
- All cycles
- 2024: R+13.1 2020: R+9.7 2016: R+16.6 2012: R+14.8 2008: R+11.8
Not yet ingested
- Civics
- —
Market trends
- HPI YoY
- ▼ -15.96%
- Current HPI
- 294.8398
- Rent YoY
- —
- Metro
- —
- State GDP YoY
- ▲ 2.78%
- F500 in state
- 22
Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TN)
| Industry | F500 HQs | Revenue |
|---|---|---|
| Healthcare | 3 | $91B |
|
||
| Retail | 3 | $72B |
|
||
| Transportation / Logistics | 1 | $88B |
|
||
| Paper / Packaging | 1 | $19B |
|
||
| Insurance | 1 | $13B |
|
||
| Energy | 1 | $12B |
|
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Price history
+0.0% since first listed2 events — show timeline
- 2026-04-13 Listed $360,205 GCAR
- 2026-03-24 Listed $360,205 Zillow
Cash-flow waterfall
monthlySold comps — $/sqft
last 12 mo · ≤1 miLoading sold comps…