5205 E 11th St · Springfield, FL 32404

$140,000

3 bd · 1.0 ba · 1,067 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 11 Days on market

Built 1956 9,975 sqft lot Est $248k · 43% under

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Why this score? — see what drove the B- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +26.3/30.0
• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• DSCR +8.9/10.0
• 1% rule +6.1/10.0
• Schools +4.3/10.0
• Livability +3.0/5.0
• Rent growth +2.8/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

This property offers a fantastic opportunity for homeowners, investors, or anyone looking to enjoy the laid-back Florida lifestyle. Situated on a spacious lot in an established neighborhood, this home provides the perfect combination of convenience, value, and accessibility. Ideally located just minutes from shopping, dining, and everyday conveniences along Tyndall Parkway, you'll find grocery stores, restaurants, retail centers, and services all nearby. Outdoor enthusiasts will appreciate the proximity to local parks, marinas, and boat ramps, while the beautiful waters of St. Andrews Bay and the Gulf Coast beaches are just a short drive away. Residents also enjoy easy access to downtown Pa

Key facts

• 9,975 sq ft lot
• Garage
• Built 1956

Property features AI

Finance

• Other: Homestead exemption indicated
• Financial info: No lease restrictions reported
• HOA & community: Not in a development; No HOA association indicated

Exterior

• Parking: Carport with 1 space
• Utilities: Public water; Public sewer; Cable connected; Electricity connected; Phone available
• Home design: Single-family residence; One story; South-facing
• Construction: Wood siding; Shingle roof; Slab foundation
• Exterior features: Paved road access; Lot approximately 0.23 acres (about 100 x 100)

Interior

• Kitchen: Convection oven; Refrigerator
• Bedrooms: Three bedrooms
• Bathrooms: One full bathroom
• Heating & cooling: Central heating; Central air conditioning
• Interior features: Minimal interior features reported
• Laundry & utility: Laundry located in garage

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $140k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $360 ($4k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $140k).
• Cap rate 9.4% vs local median 4.7% in Springfield — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 59/100 on livability (#826 in FL) — a working-class tenant base; expect higher turnover. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, health & safety A+; Watch: schools D, employment D, crime F.
• Bay (suburban): math 51% / reading 51% proficiency, ranked #29 of 73 in FL (top 40%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Market conditions: Rents rising (+1.1%/yr); 969 active listings in the ZIP; 19 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 22d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 2,473 units permitted in Bay County in 2024 (559 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $968 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $4k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Bay County population projected at +24% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• Only 11 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.
• 7 sale attempts since 23y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Current owner paid $110k; 27% above their basis — modest negotiation headroom, anchor on the comps not their cost.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: built in 1956 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.
• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; major wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→21/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $140,000

Questions for the listing agent

1. Built in 1956 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
2. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
3. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
4. Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
5. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
6. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
7. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.11% ✓
• Cap rate: 9.38%
• Cash-on-cash: 11.01%
• DSCR: 1.49
• GRM: 7.5

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $247,544
• Comps found: 2

Show comp detail 2 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
927 Bonnie Dr	0.19mi	3/2.0	1,142 (+7%)	10mo	$265,000	$232	67
3934 E 9th St	0.52mi	3/2.0	1,050 (-2%)	24mo	$213,200	$203	49

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 1.12% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -1.9%
• Equity multiple: 0.93×
• Total profit: $-2,711
• Equity at exit: $20,874

10-year hold

• IRR: 5.8%
• Equity multiple: 1.40×
• Total profit: $15,546
• Equity at exit: $12,105

Cash invested: $39,200 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Florida: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+3
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day pay-or-quit; preempts local rent control; landlord-friendly statutes. Court speed varies by county.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 32404

• Home prices YoY: -16.1%
• Rents YoY: 1.1%
• Active inventory: 969
• Price-to-rent: 7.5×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,561 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$734
• Tax from tax record: −$81 /mo · $972/yr
• Insurance: −$58
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$328
• Net cashflow: $360

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,106

Max offer price $140,000

Occupancy floor 72%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $439	-5% $399	+0% $360	+5% $320	+10% $280
Rent	-10% $236	-5% $298	+0% $360	+5% $421	+10% $483
Rate	-1.0pp $430	-0.5pp $395	base $360	+0.5pp $323	+1.0pp $286

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $35,000
• Closing costs: $4,200
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 19 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
5117 E 10th St Apt A Panama City, FL	2.0	1.5	936	$1,200	$1.28	13d	1	0.16mi
5117 E 10th St Unit D Panama City, FL	2.0	1.5	950	$1,250	$1.32	13d	1	0.17mi
906 Kevin Ct Panama City, FL	3.0	2.0	1266	$1,795	$1.42	21d	1	0.29mi
5115 E 14th St Unit 3 Panama City, FL	2.0	2.0	978	$1,250	$1.28	21d	1	0.38mi
4141 E 15th St Panama City, FL	2.0–3.0	2.0	1082	$1,825	$1.69	13d	9	0.46mi
3914 E 11th St #301 Panama City, FL	2.0	2.0	864	$1,000	$1.16	21d	1	0.53mi
526 Camellia Ave Panama City, FL	3.0	2.0	1375	$1,950	$1.42	21d	1	0.74mi
1401 Transmitter Rd Unit 15 Panama City, FL	3.0	2.0	1100	$1,395	$1.27	13d	1	0.84mi
3719 E 8th Ct Panama City, FL	1.0–4.0	1.0–1.5	950	$1,300	$1.37	21d	1	0.93mi
420 Raven Ln Panama City, FL	3.0	2.0	1251	$1,750	$1.40	21d	1	0.94mi
4905 Alameda St Unit 1 Panama City, FL	3.0	2.0	942	$1,295	$1.37	21d	1	1.12mi
5101 Willow St Panama City, FL	3.0	2.0	1099	$1,500	$1.36	13d	1	1.13mi
229 Callaway Chase Ln Panama City, FL	3.0	2.5	1200	$1,650	$1.38	13d	1	1.23mi
208 North Highway 22 A Unit 33 Panama City, FL	3.0	2.0	1080	$1,350	$1.25	21d	1	1.26mi
6121 Harvey St Apt 16 Panama City, FL	2.0	1.5	1000	$1,090	$1.09	21d	1	1.37mi
6121 Harvey St Unit 8 Panama City, FL	2.0	1.5	1200	$1,050	$0.88	21d	1	1.37mi
6101 Harvey St #3 Panama City, FL	2.0	1.5	1108	$1,050	$0.95	21d	1	1.38mi
149 North Highway 22 A Unit 5 Panama City, FL	2.0	1.0	900	$1,140	$1.27	13d	1	1.43mi
129 Seneca Ave Panama City, FL	3.0	2.0	1449	$1,495	$1.03	13d	1	1.46mi

Listing history 10 events

1. 2026-06-19
   days on market $140,000 Active 11 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   days on market $140,000 Active 10 DOM
3. 2026-06-17
   days on market $140,000 Active 9 DOM
4. 2026-06-16
   days on market $140,000 Active 8 DOM
5. 2026-06-15
   days on market $140,000 Active 7 DOM
6. 2026-06-14
   days on market $140,000 Active 5 DOM
7. 2026-06-13
   days on market $140,000 Active 4 DOM
8. 2026-06-10
   days on market $140,000 Active 2 DOM
9. 2026-06-09
   remarks 699-char remark
10. 2026-06-09
    listed $140,000 Active 1 DOM

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast FL · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $972 · $81/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $1,162 · $97/mo
• Expected delta: +$190/yr (+$16/mo · 19.6%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 6/10 Major
• 🌡 Heat 10/10 Extreme 7 d/yr ≥105°F today · 21 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 9/10 Extreme 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 1/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 0 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $18,731
• − Mortgage interest: −$7,842
• − Property taxes: −$972
• − Insurance: −$700
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,499
• − Management: −$1,499
• − Depreciation: −$4,073
• Taxable income: $2,148
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$516
• After-tax cash flow: $3,801/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Bay
• NCES district ID: 1200090
• Math proficiency: 51% ▼ -8.00%
• Reading proficiency: 51% ▼ -7.00%
• Median HH income: $47,740
• Composite: 43.41/100
• National rank: #3014
• State rank: #29 of 73 in FL

Livability — Springfield

• Score: 59/100
• State rank: #826
• US rank: #20265

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime F Employment D Housing A+ Health & safety A+ User ratings F

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Springfield, FL
• County: Bay County · 163,593 people
• Metro: Panama City, FL
• Population (ZIP): 42,514
• Household income: $74,708
• Rent vs Own: 30.8% rent · 69.2% own
• Severe rent burden: 1218.0

Population outlook (Bay County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 206,264 people
• By 2030: 217,740 · +5.6%
• By 2040: 238,738 · +15.7%
• By 2050: 255,545 · +23.9%
• By 2075: 288,295 · +39.8%
• By 2100: 288,638 · +39.9%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (69%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 69% Black 12% Two or more races 10% Hispanic / Latino 9% Asian 3%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 2% Puerto Rican 3%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 3% Slovak 2% Italian 2%
• Foreign-born: 7% · Canada, Vietnam, Mexico
• Languages at home: 90% English-only · Spanish 6% Vietnamese 1% Other Asian/Pacific 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Bay

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+47.4) · D 25.8% · R 73.1% · Other 1.1%
• 2008→2024 swing: -6.6pp toward R · 2008: -40.7pp · 2024: -47.4pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+47.4 2020: R+43.5 2016: R+46.3 2012: R+43.6 2008: R+40.7

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -50.59%
• Current HPI: 263.7178
• Rent YoY: ▲ 1.12%
• Metro: Panama City, FL
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.28%
• F500 in state: 36

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in FL)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Industrial Technology	2	$29B
▸Insurance	2	$17B
▸Retail	1	$60B
▸Technology Distribution	1	$58B
▸Homebuilding	1	$35B
▸Technology Manufacturing	1	$35B

Price history

+86.7% since first listed

28 events — show timeline

• 2026-06-08 Listed $140,000 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2025-11-28 Listing Removed — CPARMLS
• 2025-10-06 Price Changed $132,500 CPARMLS
• 2025-09-26 Price Changed $138,000 CPARMLS
• 2025-09-24 Price Changed $145,000 CPARMLS
• 2025-09-24 Price Changed $135,000 CPARMLS
• 2025-09-23 Price Changed $145,000 CPARMLS
• 2025-09-12 Relisted — CPARMLS
• 2025-09-11 Contingent — CPARMLS
• 2025-09-10 Pending — CPARMLS
• 2025-09-04 Price Changed $147,500 CPARMLS
• 2025-08-26 Price Changed $149,999 CPARMLS
• 2025-08-20 Price Changed $152,500 CPARMLS
• 2025-08-12 Price Changed $159,500 CPARMLS
• 2025-08-09 Price Changed $162,500 CPARMLS
• 2025-07-31 Price Changed $165,000 CPARMLS
• 2025-07-08 Price Changed $169,900 CPARMLS
• 2025-07-08 Price Changed $159,000 CPARMLS
• 2025-06-25 Listed $179,999 CPARMLS
• 2021-12-14 Listing Removed — CPARMLS
• 2021-12-14 Listing Removed — CPARMLS
• 2005-04-05 Sold (Public Records) $110,000 Public Records
• 2005-04-01 Sold (MLS) $110,000 CPARMLS
• 2005-03-02 Listed $114,900 CPARMLS
• 2004-10-25 Sold (MLS) $37,323 CPARMLS
• 2004-07-14 Listed $41,500 CPARMLS
• 2003-05-30 Listed $63,000 CPARMLS
• 2003-03-14 Listed $75,000 CPARMLS

Property tax history

+0.3%/yr

Latest (2025): $972 · +3.9% YoY. Source: county tax records.