134 Dogwood Dr · Magnolia, TX 77355

$210,000

4 bd · 3.0 ba · 2,128 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 152 Days on market

Built 2002 $99/sqft · 28% below area Est $292k · 28% under $20/mo HOA · 1% of rent ↓ 8% since listing

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Why this score? — see what drove the D+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• Cash flow +13.9/30.0
• 1% rule +4.5/10.0
• DSCR +4.2/10.0
• Livability +3.7/5.0
• Schools +2.9/10.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Spacious living! Large entry room to make what you want!! living, dining or game room. Great den with wood burning fireplace, ceiling fans. Indoor utility, huge kitchen with Island, desk area and butler's pantry area too! Primary bath has soaking tub and separate shower two vanities too!. Each additional bedroom has access to bath; two bedrooms have a jack n jill bath and the other has an attached/hall bath. This spacious home has a nice patio on the back with sliding glass door access. The patio has a grate for you BBQ Ashes to fall thru Plus seating area. There is a storage shed and a child's play set in the HUGE back fenced yard!!!! On the front there is an entry porch for sitting. A NICE COVERED AREA IN BACK FOR PIC-NICK OR JUST PLAYING.

Key facts

• Storage shed
• Butler's pantry
• Sliding glass door

Tags

• WOOD BURNING FIREPLACE
• BUTLER'S PANTRY
• JACK N JILL BATH
• SLIDING GLASS DOOR
• STORAGE SHED
• ENTRY PORCH

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 4-bed/3.0-bath single-family listed at $210k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $23 ($270/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $199k (5.2% below list).
• Recommended offer: $185k (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 6.4% vs local median 3.4% in Magnolia — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 73/100 on livability (#222 in TX) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: crime A+, cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: schools D+, amenities F, commute F.
• Waller ISD (rural): math 30% / reading 35% proficiency, ranked #532 of 826 in TX (top 64%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Market conditions: 557 active listings in the ZIP; 14 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals leasing fast (median 14d on market — plan ~1-2 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); solid renter incomes; 483 units permitted in Waller County in 2024 (89 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $6k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Waller County population projected at +62% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 152 days — a 12% lower offer ($185k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; moderate wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→23/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $184,800 (12.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 152 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
3. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
6. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
7. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
8. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
9. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.95% ✗
• Cap rate: 6.42%
• Cash-on-cash: 0.46%
• DSCR: 1.02
• GRM: 8.8

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $291,689
• List price: $210,000
• Delta: -28.01%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 6 within 2.0 mi

Show comp detail 9 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
378 Ridgewood Dr	0.41mi	4/3.0	2,120 (-0%)	7mo	$450,000	$212	75
138 Oak Hollow Blvd	0.44mi	4/3.0	2,241 (+5%)	21mo	$579,000	$258	53
305 Ridgewood Dr	0.41mi	4/2.0	2,353 (+11%)	10mo	$375,000	$159	51
142 Greenbriar Dr	0.12mi	4/2.0	1,862 (-12%)	23mo	$399,000	$214	50
333 Ridgewood Dr	0.42mi	3/2.0 (-1)	2,031 (-5%)	17mo	$460,000	$226	50
25193 Oak Hollow Blvd	0.63mi	4/2.0	1,841 (-14%)	1mo	$425,000	$231	43
28019 Greenbriar Dr	0.59mi	3/2.0 (-1)	2,176 (+2%)	24mo	$399,000	$183	40
25371 Cedar Hill Dr	0.68mi	4/2.5	2,334 (+10%)	15mo	$499,000	$214	38
25410 Rolling Hills Dr	0.58mi	3/2.0 (-1)	2,280 (+7%)	22mo	$300,000	$132	34

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -15.5%
• Equity multiple: 0.45×
• Total profit: $-32,503
• Equity at exit: $31,312

10-year hold

• IRR: -6.9%
• Equity multiple: 0.56×
• Total profit: $-26,085
• Equity at exit: $18,157

Cash invested: $58,800 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 77355

• Home prices YoY: -30.3%
• Active inventory: 557
• Price-to-rent: 8.8×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,991 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,101
• Tax from tax record: −$341 /mo · $4,096/yr
• Insurance: −$88
• HOA: −$20
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$418
• Net cashflow: $23

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,962

Max offer price $210,000

Occupancy floor 94%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $141	-5% $82	+0% $23	+5% $-37	+10% $-96
Rent	-10% $-135	-5% $-56	+0% $23	+5% $101	+10% $180
Rate	-1.0pp $128	-0.5pp $76	base $23	+0.5pp $-32	+1.0pp $-87

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $52,500
• Closing costs: $6,300
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 14 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
27068 Leonardo Dr Magnolia, TX	5.0	2.5	2571	$1,985	$0.77	13d	1	1.22mi
27064 Leonardo Dr Magnolia, TX	3.0	2.5	1882	$1,695	$0.90	44d	1	1.22mi
25189 Dickens Dr Magnolia, TX	3.0	2.5	1882	$1,760	$0.94	25d	1	1.29mi
26051 Allan Poe Dr Magnolia, TX	4.0	2.0	2329	$1,895	$0.81	44d	1	1.30mi
25069 Authors Dr Magnolia, TX	3.0	2.0	1576	$1,716	$1.09	6d	1	1.31mi
23112 Shakespeare Dr Magnolia, TX	5.0	2.5	2620	$2,019	$0.77	2d	1	1.31mi
23022 Bellini Dr Magnolia, TX	3.0	2.0	1414	$1,549	$1.10	21d	1	1.34mi
23018 Bellini Dr Magnolia, TX	5.0	2.5	2571	$2,110	$0.82	2d	1	1.35mi
23064 Shakespeare Dr Magnolia, TX	3.0	2.5	1882	$1,689	$0.90	23d	1	1.35mi
23019 Bellini Dr Magnolia, TX	3.0	2.5	1882	$1,715	$0.91	2d	1	1.37mi
23048 Shakespeare Dr Magnolia, TX	4.0	2.0	1787	$1,649	$0.92	44d	1	1.37mi
26716 Frost Dr Magnolia, TX	3.0	2.5	1882	$2,146	$1.14	2d	1	1.38mi
26732 Frost Dr Magnolia, TX	3.0	2.5	1882	$1,836	$0.98	2d	1	1.38mi
21107 Titian Dr Magnolia, TX	3.0	2.0	1552	$1,700	$1.10	13d	1	1.47mi

HOA detail

• Monthly dues: $20 · $240/yr

Listing history 18 events

1. 2026-06-21
   days on market $210,000 Active 152 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   days on market $210,000 Active 149 DOM
3. 2026-06-17
   days on market $210,000 Active 148 DOM
4. 2026-06-16
   days on market $210,000 Active 147 DOM
5. 2026-06-15
   days on market $210,000 Active 146 DOM
6. 2026-06-13
   days on market $210,000 Active 144 DOM
7. 2026-06-09
   days on market $210,000 Active 140 DOM
8. 2026-06-08
   days on market $210,000 Active 139 DOM
9. 2026-06-07
   days on market $210,000 Active 138 DOM
10. 2026-06-04
    days on market $210,000 Active 135 DOM
11. 2026-06-03
    days on market $210,000 Active 134 DOM
12. 2026-06-02
    days on market $210,000 Active 133 DOM
13. 2026-06-01
    days on market $210,000 Active 132 DOM
14. 2026-05-31
    days on market $210,000 Active 131 DOM
15. 2026-05-01
    price $220,000 754-char remark

    Show marketing remark (754 chars)

    Spacious living! Large entry room to make what you want!! living, dining or game room. Great den with wood burning fireplace, ceiling fans. Indoor utility, huge kitchen with Island, desk area and butler's pantry area too! Primary bath has soaking tub and separate shower two vanities too!. Each additional bedroom has access to bath; two bedrooms have a jack n jill bath and the other has an attached/hall bath. This spacious home has a nice patio on the back with sliding glass door access. The patio has a grate for you BBQ Ashes to fall thru Plus seating area. There is a storage shed and a child's play set in the HUGE back fenced yard!!!! On the front there is an entry porch for sitting. A NICE COVERED AREA IN BACK FOR PIC-NICK OR JUST PLAYING.

16. 2026-02-13
    price $230,000 754-char remark

    Show marketing remark (754 chars)

    Spacious living! Large entry room to make what you want!! living, dining or game room. Great den with wood burning fireplace, ceiling fans. Indoor utility, huge kitchen with Island, desk area and butler's pantry area too! Primary bath has soaking tub and separate shower two vanities too!. Each additional bedroom has access to bath; two bedrooms have a jack n jill bath and the other has an attached/hall bath. This spacious home has a nice patio on the back with sliding glass door access. The patio has a grate for you BBQ Ashes to fall thru Plus seating area. There is a storage shed and a child's play set in the HUGE back fenced yard!!!! On the front there is an entry porch for sitting. A NICE COVERED AREA IN BACK FOR PIC-NICK OR JUST PLAYING.

17. 2026-01-20
    listed $240,000 Active 754-char remark

    Show marketing remark (754 chars)

    Spacious living! Large entry room to make what you want!! living, dining or game room. Great den with wood burning fireplace, ceiling fans. Indoor utility, huge kitchen with Island, desk area and butler's pantry area too! Primary bath has soaking tub and separate shower two vanities too!. Each additional bedroom has access to bath; two bedrooms have a jack n jill bath and the other has an attached/hall bath. This spacious home has a nice patio on the back with sliding glass door access. The patio has a grate for you BBQ Ashes to fall thru Plus seating area. There is a storage shed and a child's play set in the HUGE back fenced yard!!!! On the front there is an entry porch for sitting. A NICE COVERED AREA IN BACK FOR PIC-NICK OR JUST PLAYING.

18. 2014-09-02
    soldstatus

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast TX · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $4,096 · $341/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $4,096 · $341/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 5/10 Major
• 🌡 Heat 8/10 Severe 7 d/yr ≥111°F today · 23 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 8/10 Severe 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 1 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $23,888
• − Mortgage interest: −$11,763
• − Property taxes: −$4,096
• − Insurance: −$1,050
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,911
• − Management: −$1,911
• − HOA: −$240
• − Depreciation: −$6,109
• Taxable loss: −$3,192
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$766
• After-tax cash flow: $1,037/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Waller ISD
• NCES district ID: 4844430
• Math proficiency: 30% ▼ -23.00%
• Reading proficiency: 35% ▼ -11.00%
• Median HH income: $58,911
• Composite: 29.12/100
• National rank: #6593
• State rank: #532 of 826 in TX

Livability — Magnolia

• Score: 73/100
• State rank: #222
• US rank: #5442

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime A+ Employment B- Housing A+ Health & safety B- User ratings A+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• County: Montgomery County · 663,713 people
• City population: 32,847
• Metro: Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land, TX
• Population (ZIP): 32,847
• Household income: $102,066
• Rent vs Own: 17.3% rent · 82.7% own
• Severe rent burden: 209.0

Population outlook (Waller County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 60,772 people
• By 2030: 67,616 · +11.3%
• By 2040: 82,283 · +35.4%
• By 2050: 98,276 · +61.7%
• By 2075: 142,860 · +135.1%
• By 2100: 175,596 · +188.9%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (68%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 68% Hispanic / Latino 25% Two or more races 14% Black 2% Native American 2%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 18%
• Common ancestry: Slovak 4% Serbian 2% Romanian 2%
• Foreign-born: 7% · Canada, Jamaica
• Languages at home: 82% English-only · Spanish 17%

Political lean MEDSL · Waller

• 2024 margin: Strong R (+25.0) · D 37.0% · R 62.0% · Other 1.0%
• 2008→2024 swing: -17.9pp toward R · 2008: -7.2pp · 2024: -25.0pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+25.0 2020: R+26.7 2016: R+28.6 2012: R+17.6 2008: R+7.2

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -116.90%
• Current HPI: 268.5845
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land, TX
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Price history

-8.3% since first listed

4 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-01 Price Changed $220,000 HARMLS
• 2026-02-13 Price Changed $230,000 HARMLS
• 2026-01-20 Listed $240,000 HARMLS
• 2014-09-02 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records

Property tax history

+5.1%/yr

Latest (2025): $4,096 · +4.4% YoY. Source: county tax records.