Adams Plan · Cove, TX 77523

$239,990

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,204 sqft · SingleFamily · 464 Days on market

↓ 4% since listing

---

Why this score? — see what drove the F grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Schools +6.2/10.0
• Cash flow +4.3/30.0
• Rent growth +3.4/5.0
• Livability +3.2/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• 1% rule +0.4/10.0
• DSCR +0.0/10.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Value-oriented families appreciate the versatility of the single-story Adams, with as many as four bedrooms. A gourmet kitchen with a casual nook adjoining an inviting family room is ideal for family gatherings or entertaining guests.

Key facts

• Inviting family room
• Gourmet kitchen
• 2 garage spots

Tags

• GOURMET KITCHEN
• INVITING FAMILY ROOM

🏗️ New construction. The $239,990 list price is a builder figure, so every metric below is computed on the value from comparable previous sales — $289,770.

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $240k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-767 ($-9k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $179k (25.5% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $156k (34.8% below list).
• Recommended offer: $156k (34.8% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 3.1% vs local median 5.3% in Cove — below-typical yield; the buyer is paying a premium for something (appreciation thesis, condition, location) that the cap rate doesn't capture.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 64/100 on livability (#766 in TX) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: employment A+, housing A+, crime A; Watch: schools D, amenities F, commute F.
• Barbers Hill ISD (rural): math 72% / reading 65% proficiency, ranked #12 of 826 in TX (top 2%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Market conditions: Rents rising (+3.4%/yr); 781 active listings in the ZIP; 10 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals leasing fast (median 6d on market — plan ~1-2 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); high-income renter base; 629 units permitted in Chambers County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent is only 15% of the median local income ($124k/yr) — well below the 30% rent-burden line; pricing power to push rent on renewal without tenant pushback.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $9k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Chambers County population projected at +46% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 464 days — a 12% lower offer ($211k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Recommended offer $156,437 (34.8% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 464 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 35% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
6. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
7. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
8. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
9. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.54% ✗
• Cap rate: 3.12%
• Cash-on-cash: -11.34%
• DSCR: 0.50
• GRM: 15.4

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $289,770
• List price: $239,990
• Delta: -17.18%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 7 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
527 Louis Ln	0.23mi	3/2.0	1,204 (0%)	9mo	$230,000	$191	82
6138 Hidden Cove Rd	0.51mi	3/2.0	1,166 (-3%)	12mo	$220,000	$189	61
5834 Golden Cove Rd	0.74mi	3/2.0	1,166 (-3%)	2mo	$215,000	$184	58
6126 Hidden Cove Rd	0.53mi	3/2.0	1,166 (-3%)	14mo	$218,000	$187	58
6119 Coral Cove Rd	0.63mi	3/2.0	1,166 (-3%)	19mo	$220,000	$189	49
6022 Treasure Cove Rd	0.72mi	3/2.0	1,335 (+11%)	9mo	$239,900	$180	40
6023 Treasure Cove Rd	0.75mi	3/2.0	1,335 (+11%)	12mo	$235,000	$176	37

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.42% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -36.6%
• Equity multiple: -0.17×
• Total profit: $-95,098
• Equity at exit: $43,206

10-year hold

• IRR: -48.5%
• Equity multiple: -0.76×
• Total profit: $-142,843
• Equity at exit: $25,054

Cash invested: $81,135 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 77523

• Home prices YoY: -31.5%
• Rents YoY: 3.4%
• Active inventory: 781
• Price-to-rent: 12.8×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,564 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,520
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$362 /mo · $4,347/yr
• Insurance: −$121
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$329
• Net cashflow: $-767

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,535

Max offer price $178,830

Occupancy floor —

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $-566	-5% $-667	+0% $-767	+5% $-867	+10% $-967
Rent	-10% $-890	-5% $-828	+0% $-767	+5% $-705	+10% $-643
Rate	-1.0pp $-621	-0.5pp $-693	base $-767	+0.5pp $-842	+1.0pp $-918

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $72,442
• Closing costs: $8,693
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 10 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
5815 Littoral Rd Baytown, TX	3.0	2.0	1305	$1,845	$1.41	21d	1	1.00mi
55 Cotton Bayou Cir Cove, TX	3.0	2.0	952	$1,195	$1.26	19d	1	1.25mi
55 Cotton Bayou Cir Cove, TX	3.0	2.0	952	$1,195	$1.26	4d	1	1.25mi
16 Cotton Bayou Cir Cove, TX	3.0	1.0	784	$1,095	$1.40	4d	1	1.26mi
16 Cotton Bayou Cir Cove, TX	3.0	1.0	784	$1,095	$1.40	45d	1	1.26mi
5142 Cotton Lake Rd Cove, TX	3.0	1.0	784	$1,095	$1.40	0d	1	1.28mi
62 Cotton Bayou Cir Cove, TX	3.0	2.0	868	$1,095	$1.26	4d	1	1.28mi
62 Cotton Bayou Cir Cove, TX	3.0	2.0	868	$1,095	$1.26	5d	1	1.28mi
21 Cotton Bayou Cir Cove, TX	3.0	2.0	1216	$1,195	$0.98	4d	1	1.30mi
21 Cotton Bayou Cir Cove, TX	3.0	2.0	1216	$1,195	$0.98	17d	1	1.30mi

Listing history 16 events

1. 2026-06-21
   days on market $239,990 Active 464 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   days on market $239,990 Active 461 DOM
3. 2026-06-17
   days on market $239,990 Active 460 DOM
4. 2026-06-16
   days on market $239,990 Active 459 DOM
5. 2026-06-15
   days on market $239,990 Active 458 DOM
6. 2026-06-13
   days on market $239,990 Active 456 DOM
7. 2026-06-09
   days on market $239,990 Active 452 DOM
8. 2026-06-08
   days on market $239,990 Active 451 DOM
9. 2026-06-07
   days on market $239,990 Active 450 DOM
10. 2026-06-04
    days on market $239,990 Active 447 DOM
11. 2026-06-03
    days on market $239,990 Active 446 DOM
12. 2026-06-02
    days on market $239,990 Active 445 DOM
13. 2026-06-01
    days on market $239,990 Active 444 DOM
14. 2026-05-31
    days on market $239,990 Active 443 DOM
15. 2026-01-11
    price $239,990 234-char remark

    Show marketing remark (234 chars)

    Value-oriented families appreciate the versatility of the single-story Adams, with as many as four bedrooms. A gourmet kitchen with a casual nook adjoining an inviting family room is ideal for family gatherings or entertaining guests.

16. 2025-03-15
    listed $249,990 Active 234-char remark

    Show marketing remark (234 chars)

    Value-oriented families appreciate the versatility of the single-story Adams, with as many as four bedrooms. A gourmet kitchen with a casual nook adjoining an inviting family room is ideal for family gatherings or entertaining guests.

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $18,772
• − Mortgage interest: −$16,232
• − Property taxes: −$4,347
• − Insurance: −$1,449
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,502
• − Management: −$1,502
• − Depreciation: −$8,430
• Taxable loss: −$14,688
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$3,525
• After-tax cash flow: $-5,675/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Barbers Hill ISD
• NCES district ID: 4809450
• Math proficiency: 72% ▼ -5.00%
• Reading proficiency: 65% ▼ -1.00%
• Median HH income: $87,257
• Composite: 61.73/100
• National rank: #737
• State rank: #12 of 826 in TX

Livability — Cove

• Score: 64/100
• State rank: #766
• US rank: #13996

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living B+ Crime A Employment A+ Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• County: Chambers County · 30,186 people
• Metro: Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land, TX
• Population (ZIP): 30,186
• Household income: $124,188
• Rent vs Own: 18.7% rent · 81.3% own
• Severe rent burden: 549.0

Population outlook (Chambers County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 46,946 people
• By 2030: 51,094 · +8.8%
• By 2040: 59,578 · +26.9%
• By 2050: 68,318 · +45.5%
• By 2075: 90,485 · +92.7%
• By 2100: 104,885 · +123.4%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Majority White (62%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 62% Hispanic / Latino 25% Two or more races 11% Black 8% Asian 2%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 22%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 1% Slovak 1% Serbian 1%
• Foreign-born: 9% · Canada
• Languages at home: 82% English-only · Spanish 17%

Political lean MEDSL · Chambers

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+65.6) · D 16.8% · R 82.4%
• 2008→2024 swing: -14.4pp toward R · 2008: -51.2pp · 2024: -65.6pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+65.6 2020: R+61.7 2016: R+62.1 2012: R+61.1 2008: R+51.2

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -102.33%
• Current HPI: 222.6999
• Rent YoY: ▲ 3.42%
• Metro: Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land, TX
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Price history

-4.0% since first listed

2 events — show timeline

• 2026-01-11 Price Changed $239,990 Zillow
• 2025-03-15 Listed $249,990 Zillow