12614 A Bar Dr · Santa Fe, TX 77510

$245,000

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,532 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 44 Days on market

Built 1980 8,250 sqft lot $160/sqft · at area comps Est $251k · at est. ↓ 6% since listing

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Why this score? — see what drove the D+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +15.0/30.0
• ARV discount +8.6/15.0
• 1% rule +5.0/10.0
• DSCR +5.0/10.0
• Schools +3.5/10.0
• Livability +3.4/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

Imagine 12614 A Bar Dr, recently updated with fresh interior paint and partial flooring replacement throughout. The kitchen now features new appliances including all stainless steel units, complemented by an accent backsplash. Exterior enjoyment is enhanced by a patio and a fully fenced in backyard. This home perfectly blends modern updates with practical outdoor living. Included 100-Day Home Warranty with buyer activation

Key facts

• New appliances
• Patio
• Accent backsplash

Tags

• NEW APPLIANCES
• STAINLESS STEEL UNITS
• ACCENT BACKSPLASH
• PATIO
• FULLY FENCED BACKYARD

Property features AI

Exterior

• Parking: Attached 2-car garage
• Security: Owned security system
• Utilities: Public water; Public sewer
• Home design: Residential property; Single-story entry (all main rooms listed on first floor)
• Construction: Brick construction; Built in 1980; Composition roof; Slab foundation
• Exterior features: Lot includes other features

Interior

• Kitchen: Dishwasher; Microwave
• Bedrooms: Primary bedroom on the first floor (approx. 14 x 13); Bedroom on the first floor (approx. 12 x 11); Bedroom on the first floor (approx. 10 x 11)
• Flooring: Carpet; Plank; Tile; Vinyl
• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms
• Heating & cooling: Central heating (gas); Central electric air conditioning
• Interior features: Security system (owned); No fireplaces

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $245k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $38k ($451k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($50k rent vs $245k).
• Recommended offer: $238k (3.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 190.3% vs local median 4.5% in Santa Fe — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 67/100 on livability (#550 in TX) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: crime A+, cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: amenities F, commute F, health & safety F.
• Santa Fe ISD (suburban): math 38% / reading 39% proficiency, ranked #385 of 826 in TX (top 47%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: William F Barnett El (math 59% / reading 46%, grade C-, #720 of 4,322 statewide, top 17%, 646 students, 59% FRL); Santa Fe H S (math 19% / reading 34%, grade F, #1,228 of 1,632 statewide, top 76%, 1,369 students, 47% FRL) — zoned schools average 53% FRL vs 35% district-wide (18 pts higher); higher-poverty schools than district average — tighter screening recommended.
• Market conditions: 233 active listings in the ZIP; 3 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals lingering (median 44d on market — plan ~5-8 weeks vacancy on turnover, expect pricing pressure); 67% of comp listings sitting > 30 days — soft ceiling on asking rent; 3,258 units permitted in Galveston County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $7k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Galveston County population projected at +43% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $69k cash investment doubles in ~1 year — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 44 days — a 3% lower offer ($238k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: major flood risk; severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→26/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $237,650 (3.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 44 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 3% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
3. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
4. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
5. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
6. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 20.33% ✓
• Cap rate: 190.35%
• Cash-on-cash: 657.33%
• DSCR: 30.25
• GRM: 0.4

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $250,981
• List price: $245,000
• Delta: -2.38%
• Verdict: FAIR
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
4310 A Bar Dr	0.05mi	3/2.0	1,622 (+6%)	3mo	$240,000	$148	86
12423 A Bar Dr	0.15mi	3/2.0	1,443 (-6%)	1mo	$269,000	$186	82
12626 Langford St	0.29mi	3/2.0	1,536 (+0%)	7mo	$250,000	$163	80
4406 B Bar Dr	0.17mi	3/2.5	1,435 (-6%)	1mo	$250,000	$174	78
4028 Avenue O	0.33mi	4/2.0 (+1)	1,476 (-4%)	0mo	$225,000	$152	74
4433 Avenue L	0.52mi	3/2.0	1,500 (-2%)	10mo	$289,900	$193	64
4132 Avenue Q 1/2	0.69mi	3/2.0	1,500 (-2%)	1mo	$359,999	$240	63
4002 Avenue Q 1/2	0.70mi	3/2.0	1,528 (-0%)	14mo	$319,000	$209	55
13118 Preston Dr	0.54mi	3/2.0	1,426 (-7%)	10mo	$275,000	$193	55
4311 Avenue J	0.75mi	3/2.0	1,562 (+2%)	15mo	$297,000	$190	50
13242 9th St	0.67mi	2/2.0 (-1)	1,313 (-14%)	5mo	$220,000	$168	36
13241 8th St	0.66mi	4/1.5 (+1)	1,318 (-14%)	8mo	$110,000	$83	32

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: —
• Equity multiple: 35.32×
• Total profit: $2,354,429
• Equity at exit: $36,530

10-year hold

• IRR: —
• Equity multiple: 75.86×
• Total profit: $5,135,243
• Equity at exit: $21,183

Cash invested: $68,600 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 77510

• Home prices YoY: -15.3%
• Active inventory: 233
• Price-to-rent: 0.4×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $49,812 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,285
• Tax from tax record: −$387 /mo · $4,641/yr
• Insurance: −$102
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$10,460
• Net cashflow: $37,577

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,245

Max offer price $245,000

Occupancy floor 20%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $61,250
• Closing costs: $7,350
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 3 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
4120 Avenue O #10 Santa Fe, TX	3.0	2.0	1280	$74,621	$58.30	44d	1	0.26mi
11844 13th St Santa Fe, TX	3.0	2.0	1472	$1,750	$1.19	22d	1	0.90mi
13342 Pecan Trails Dr Santa Fe, TX	4.0	3.0	2150	$2,700	$1.26	44d	1	1.12mi

Listing history 16 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $245,000 Active 44 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $245,000 Active 43 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $245,000 Active 42 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   days on market $245,000 Active 41 DOM
5. 2026-06-13
   pricedays on market $245,000 Active 39 DOM
6. 2026-06-09
   days on market $250,000 Active 35 DOM
7. 2026-06-08
   days on market $250,000 Active 34 DOM
8. 2026-06-07
   days on market $250,000 Active 33 DOM
9. 2026-06-04
   days on market $250,000 Active 30 DOM
10. 2026-06-03
    days on market $250,000 Active 29 DOM
11. 2026-06-02
    days on market $250,000 Active 28 DOM
12. 2026-06-01
    days on market $250,000 Active 27 DOM
13. 2026-05-31
    days on market $250,000 Active 26 DOM
14. 2026-05-14
    price $255,000 426-char remark
15. 2026-05-05
    listed $260,000 Active 426-char remark
16. 2026-04-24
    soldstatus

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast TX · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $4,641 · $387/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $4,641 · $387/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 6/10 Major FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 73% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 2/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 10/10 Extreme 7 d/yr ≥110°F today · 26 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 9/10 Extreme 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 1 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $597,738
• − Mortgage interest: −$13,724
• − Property taxes: −$4,641
• − Insurance: −$1,225
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$47,819
• − Management: −$47,819
• − Depreciation: −$7,127
• Taxable income: $475,383
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$114,092
• After-tax cash flow: $336,838/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Santa Fe ISD
• NCES district ID: 4839270
• Math proficiency: 38% ▼ -10.00%
• Reading proficiency: 39% ▼ -2.00%
• Median HH income: $66,769
• Composite: 34.86/100
• National rank: #5091
• State rank: #385 of 826 in TX

Livability — Santa Fe

• Score: 67/100
• State rank: #550
• US rank: #10637

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime A+ Employment B+ Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings B

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Santa Fe, TX
• Population (ZIP): 13,938

Population outlook (Galveston County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 390,640 people
• By 2030: 425,226 · +8.9%
• By 2040: 493,765 · +26.4%
• By 2050: 559,698 · +43.3%
• By 2075: 719,260 · +84.1%
• By 2100: 819,628 · +109.8%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (72%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 72% Hispanic / Latino 21% Two or more races 17% Asian 2%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 14% Puerto Rican 3% Cuban 1%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 4% Italian 3% Slovak 1%
• Foreign-born: 5% · Canada
• Languages at home: 89% English-only · Spanish 10% Tagalog/Filipino 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Galveston

• 2024 margin: Strong R (+27.4) · D 35.7% · R 63.1% · Other 1.2%
• 2008→2024 swing: -7.9pp toward R · 2008: -19.5pp · 2024: -27.4pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+27.4 2020: R+22.6 2016: R+22.6 2012: R+26.9 2008: R+19.5

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -54.15%
• Current HPI: 299.2228
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Price history

-5.8% since first listed

5 events — show timeline

• 2026-06-11 Price Changed $245,000 HARMLS
• 2026-05-28 Price Changed $250,000 HARMLS
• 2026-05-14 Price Changed $255,000 HARMLS
• 2026-05-05 Listed $260,000 HARMLS
• 2026-04-24 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records

Property tax history

+3.8%/yr

Latest (2025): $4,641 · +7.0% YoY. Source: county tax records.