610 Lagoon Oaks Cir · Upper Grand Lagoon, FL 32408

$189,000

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,512 sqft · Manufactured public records · 56 Days on market

Built 1996 0.25 ac lot $125/sqft · at area comps Est $180k · 5% over

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Why this score? — see what drove the C+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +28.8/30.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• 1% rule +7.2/10.0
• ARV discount +5.2/15.0
• Schools +4.3/10.0
• Livability +3.4/5.0
• Rent growth +3.1/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

AGE, SF, LOT, RM SZ APPROX: Like new manufactured home in Lagoon Oaks Subdivision. Open floor plan/ split bedrooms. Spacious kitchen w/ lots of cabintes. huge Gret room w/ corner fireplace. Separate dining room. Master bedroom has corner floor to ceilings windows. Master bath has double vanity and garden tub separate shower. Wooden decks in front and back.

Key facts

• Large windows
• Open floorplan
• Breakfast bar

Tags

• SHORT TERM RENTAL FRIENDLY
• OPEN FLOORPLAN
• LARGE WINDOWS
• FIREPLACE
• BREAKFAST BAR
• DECORATIVE GLASS DOOR CABINETS

Property features AI

Finance

• HOA & community: Short term rentals allowed

Exterior

• Utilities: Underground utilities; Public sewer
• Home design: Double wide mobile home; Single-story
• Construction: Vinyl siding; Metal roof
• Exterior features: Covered patio; Patio; Workshop; Paved lot

Interior

• Kitchen: Electric range
• Bedrooms: Two bedrooms (one primary bedroom); Bedroom dimensions: 11 x 12 and 11 x 12; Primary bedroom (first floor) dimensions: 14 x 12
• Flooring: Luxury Vinyl Plank
• Bathrooms: Two full bathrooms
• Heating & cooling: Central air conditioning; Electric heating with heat pump
• Interior features: Fireplace; Luxury Vinyl Plank flooring
• Laundry & utility: Electric water heater

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath manufactured listed at $189k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $633 ($8k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $189k).
• Recommended offer: $183k (3.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 10.3% vs local median 3.2% in Upper Grand Lagoon — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 67/100 on livability (#583 in FL) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: housing A+, crime A, cost of living B+; Watch: schools D, amenities F, commute F.
• Bay (suburban): math 51% / reading 51% proficiency, ranked #29 of 73 in FL (top 40%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Market conditions: Rents rising (+2.5%/yr); 1032 active listings in the ZIP; 25 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 22d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); solid renter incomes; 2,473 units permitted in Bay County in 2024 (559 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 34% of the median local income ($81k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $6k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Bay County population projected at +24% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 2.5% rent growth), your $53k cash investment doubles in ~9 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 56 days — a 3% lower offer ($183k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 2 sale attempts since 27y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Current owner paid $63k; list at $189k implies a 200% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→22/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $183,330 (3.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 56 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 3% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
3. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
4. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
5. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
6. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.22% ✓
• Cap rate: 10.31%
• Cash-on-cash: 14.36%
• DSCR: 1.64
• GRM: 6.8

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $180,000
• List price: $189,000
• Delta: 5.00%
• Verdict: FAIR
• Comps: 5 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 8 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
640 Lagoon Oaks Cir	0.04mi	3/2.0	1,296 (-14%)	3mo	$180,000	$139	72
2320 Grand Oaks Ln	0.36mi	3/2.0	1,625 (+8%)	4mo	$180,000	$111	68
2728 S Pleasant Oak Ct	0.21mi	3/2.0	1,620 (+7%)	16mo	$187,000	$115	65
1219 Thomas Dr #3	0.41mi	3/3.0	1,372 (-9%)	13mo	$265,000	$193	50
2030 Twin Oaks Dr	0.70mi	3/2.0	1,443 (-5%)	13mo	$218,500	$151	49
2119 Bent Oak Ct	0.67mi	3/2.0	1,568 (+4%)	20mo	$235,000	$150	46
2115 Bent Oak Ct	0.65mi	3/2.0	1,620 (+7%)	20mo	$230,000	$142	42
1219 Thomas Dr #64	0.41mi	3/3.0	1,299 (-14%)	22mo	$260,000	$200	35

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 2.55% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 4.2%
• Equity multiple: 1.16×
• Total profit: $8,622
• Equity at exit: $28,181

10-year hold

• IRR: 13.3%
• Equity multiple: 2.04×
• Total profit: $55,054
• Equity at exit: $16,341

Cash invested: $52,920 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Florida: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+3
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day pay-or-quit; preempts local rent control; landlord-friendly statutes. Court speed varies by county.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 32408

• Rents YoY: 2.5%
• Active inventory: 1032
• Price-to-rent: 6.8×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,302 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$991
• Tax from tax record: −$116 /mo · $1,387/yr
• Insurance: −$79
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$483
• Net cashflow: $633

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,501

Max offer price $189,000

Occupancy floor 68%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $740	-5% $687	+0% $633	+5% $580	+10% $526
Rent	-10% $451	-5% $542	+0% $633	+5% $724	+10% $815
Rate	-1.0pp $728	-0.5pp $681	base $633	+0.5pp $584	+1.0pp $534

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $47,250
• Closing costs: $5,670
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 25 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
7813 N Lagoon Dr Panama City, FL	2.0	2.0	1060	$1,900	$1.79	22d	1	0.52mi
7125 N Lagoon Dr Panama City, FL	2.0	2.5	1250	$2,000	$1.60	22d	1	0.62mi
140 Treasure Palm Dr Panama City, FL	3.0	2.0	1564	$2,350	$1.50	22d	1	0.64mi
8623 N Lagoon Dr Panama City Beach, FL	2.0	2.5	1600	$2,350	$1.47	22d	1	0.70mi
3704 Tiki Dr Panama City, FL	4.0	3.0	1740	$2,300	$1.32	22d	1	0.77mi
7405A Beach Dr Unit 1355031P Panama City Beach, FL	2.0	2.0	1291	$2,124	$1.65	22d	1	0.82mi
2195 Wilkinson St Panama City, FL	1.0–3.0	1.0–2.0	1017	$2,355	$2.31	14d	41	0.93mi
2148 Sterling Cove Blvd Unit 1 Panama City Beach, FL	2.0	1.5	1152	$1,695	$1.47	22d	1	0.98mi
2110 Sterling Cove Blvd Panama City, FL	2.0	2.0	1156	$1,800	$1.56	22d	1	1.02mi
2917 Allison Ave Panama City Beach, FL	3.0	2.0	1592	$1,700	$1.07	22d	1	1.04mi
7110 London St Panama City Beach, FL	2.0–3.0	2.5	1419	$2,157	$1.52	14d	6	1.05mi
8604 Whelch Dr Panama City, FL	1.0–3.0	1.0–3.0	1087	$2,950	$2.71	14d	18	1.12mi
2519 Beech St Panama City, FL	2.0	1.5	1200	$1,595	$1.33	22d	1	1.19mi
6320 Beach Dr Panama City, FL	3.0	2.5	1625	$2,800	$1.72	22d	1	1.25mi
2858 Joan Ave Unit 1523343P Panama City, FL	4.0	3.0	1754	$5,270	$3.00	14d	1	1.25mi
1846 Annabellas Dr Panama City Beach, FL	2.0	2.5	1404	$1,850	$1.32	22d	1	1.28mi
1744 Annabellas Dr Panama City Beach, FL	3.0	2.5	1578	$2,100	$1.33	14d	1	1.30mi
8700 Front Beach Rd Panama City Beach, FL	2.0–3.0	2.5	1543	$2,400	$1.56	14d	2	1.32mi
1734 Annabellas Dr Panama City Beach, FL	3.0	2.5	1578	$2,100	$1.33	22d	1	1.32mi
8715 Surf Dr Unit 1523323P Panama City Beach, FL	2.0	2.0	1194	$5,377	$4.50	14d	1	1.33mi
6219 Poinciana Dr Panama City, FL	2.0	2.0	1214	$2,350	$1.94	22d	1	1.37mi
8551 Panama City Beach Pkwy Panama City Beach, FL	1.0–3.0	1.0–2.0	964	$2,184	$2.26	14d	12	1.38mi
7664 Shadow Lake Dr Unit 1523352P Panama City Beach, FL	3.0	2.0	1539	$3,210	$2.09	14d	1	1.41mi
7682 Shadow Lake Dr Panama City Beach, FL	3.0	2.5	1496	$1,875	$1.25	22d	1	1.41mi
1609 Vecuna Cir Panama City Beach, FL	3.0	2.0	1268	$2,100	$1.66	14d	1	1.50mi

Listing history 21 events

1. 2026-06-21
   days on market $189,000 Active 56 DOM
2. 2026-06-19
   days on market $189,000 Active 54 DOM
3. 2026-06-18
   days on market $189,000 Active 53 DOM
4. 2026-06-17
   days on market $189,000 Active 52 DOM
5. 2026-06-16
   days on market $189,000 Active 51 DOM
6. 2026-06-15
   days on market $189,000 Active 50 DOM
7. 2026-06-14
   days on market $189,000 Active 48 DOM
8. 2026-06-13
   days on market $189,000 Active 47 DOM
9. 2026-06-10
   days on market $189,000 Active 45 DOM
10. 2026-06-09
    days on market $189,000 Active 44 DOM
11. 2026-06-08
    days on market $189,000 Active 43 DOM
12. 2026-06-07
    days on market $189,000 Active 42 DOM
13. 2026-06-05
    days on market $189,000 Active 39 DOM
14. 2026-06-03
    days on market $189,000 Active 38 DOM
15. 2026-06-02
    days on market $189,000 Active 37 DOM
16. 2026-06-01
    days on market $189,000 Active 36 DOM
17. 2026-05-31
    days on market $189,000 Active 35 DOM
18. 2026-05-30
    days on market $189,000 Active 34 DOM
19. 2026-04-26
    listed $189,000 Active 753-char remark
20. 1999-08-05
    soldstatus $63,000 358-char remark

    Show marketing remark (358 chars)

    AGE, SF, LOT, RM SZ APPROX: Like new manufactured home in Lagoon Oaks Subdivision. Open floor plan/ split bedrooms. Spacious kitchen w/ lots of cabintes. huge Gret room w/ corner fireplace. Separate dining room. Master bedroom has corner floor to ceilings windows. Master bath has double vanity and garden tub separate shower. Wooden decks in front and back.

21. 1999-03-05
    listed $79,900 358-char remark

    Show marketing remark (358 chars)

    AGE, SF, LOT, RM SZ APPROX: Like new manufactured home in Lagoon Oaks Subdivision. Open floor plan/ split bedrooms. Spacious kitchen w/ lots of cabintes. huge Gret room w/ corner fireplace. Separate dining room. Master bedroom has corner floor to ceilings windows. Master bath has double vanity and garden tub separate shower. Wooden decks in front and back.

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast FL · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $1,387 · $116/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $1,569 · $131/mo
• Expected delta: +$182/yr (+$15/mo · 13.1%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 2/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 10/10 Extreme 7 d/yr ≥106°F today · 22 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 9/10 Extreme 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 1/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 0 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $27,625
• − Mortgage interest: −$10,587
• − Property taxes: −$1,387
• − Insurance: −$945
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,210
• − Management: −$2,210
• − Depreciation: −$5,498
• Taxable income: $4,787
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$1,149
• After-tax cash flow: $6,449/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Bay
• NCES district ID: 1200090
• Math proficiency: 51% ▼ -8.00%
• Reading proficiency: 51% ▼ -7.00%
• Median HH income: $47,740
• Composite: 43.41/100
• National rank: #3014
• State rank: #29 of 73 in FL

Livability — Upper Grand Lagoon

• Score: 67/100
• State rank: #583
• US rank: #11085

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living B+ Crime A Employment B- Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings A-

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Upper Grand Lagoon, FL
• County: Bay County · 163,593 people
• City population: 18,326
• Metro: Panama City, FL
• Population (ZIP): 18,832
• Household income: $80,822
• Rent vs Own: 37.0% rent · 63.0% own
• Severe rent burden: 817.0

Population outlook (Bay County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 206,264 people
• By 2030: 217,740 · +5.6%
• By 2040: 238,738 · +15.7%
• By 2050: 255,545 · +23.9%
• By 2075: 288,295 · +39.8%
• By 2100: 288,638 · +39.9%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (81%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 81% Hispanic / Latino 7% Two or more races 6% Black 3% Asian 2%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 2% Puerto Rican 2%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 4% Lithuanian 4% Italian 2%
• Foreign-born: 11% · Canada, South Korea
• Languages at home: 88% English-only · Spanish 5% Russian/Polish/Slavic 4% Tagalog/Filipino 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Bay

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+47.4) · D 25.8% · R 73.1% · Other 1.1%
• 2008→2024 swing: -6.6pp toward R · 2008: -40.7pp · 2024: -47.4pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+47.4 2020: R+43.5 2016: R+46.3 2012: R+43.6 2008: R+40.7

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -202.52%
• Current HPI: 246.9126
• Rent YoY: ▲ 2.55%
• Metro: Panama City, FL
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.28%
• F500 in state: 36

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in FL)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Industrial Technology	2	$29B
▸Insurance	2	$17B
▸Retail	1	$60B
▸Technology Distribution	1	$58B
▸Homebuilding	1	$35B
▸Technology Manufacturing	1	$35B

Price history

+136.5% since first listed

3 events — show timeline

• 2026-04-26 Listed $189,000 CPARMLS
• 1999-08-05 Sold (MLS) $63,000 CPARMLS
• 1999-03-05 Listed $79,900 CPARMLS

Property tax history

+5.8%/yr

Latest (2025): $1,387 · +19.4% YoY. Source: county tax records.