7866 W Tumblebrook Dr · Pine Ridge, FL 34433

$209,900

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,474 sqft · Manufactured · 279 Days on market

Built 2024 0.40 ac lot $279/mo HOA · 14% of rent ↓ 21% since listing

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Why this score? — see what drove the C grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +22.1/30.0
• 1% rule +8.6/10.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• DSCR +7.1/10.0
• Schools +4.1/10.0
• Livability +3.4/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +1.8/10.0

Listing remarks

One or more photo(s) has been virtually staged. You don't want to miss this Brand New Home! Beautiful 3 bedroom, 2 bath home on . 40-acre lot. Yes, in this peaceful Dunnellon community for ages 55+, you own your lot. Under New Ownership! Not in Flood Zone! This beautiful home offers open concept with large family room and separate dining. Kitchen has large island, stainless appliances and lots of cabinets. Oversized master suite offers walk in closet, double vanity and large shower. Large secondary bedrooms. Enjoy the Florida sunshine from your covered porch. Large carport. LOW HOA, includes, clubhouse, pool, shuffleboard, lawn care, cable, WIFI, water and trash removal. Call to schedule yo

Key facts

• Large family room
• Own your lot
• Not in flood zone

Tags

• NEW HOME
• PEACEFUL COMMUNITY
• OWN YOUR LOT
• NOT IN FLOOD ZONE
• OPEN CONCEPT
• LARGE FAMILY ROOM

Property features AI

Finance

• Other: Pets allowed with breed restrictions
• HOA & community: Homeowners association with monthly fee of $279; HOA covers grounds maintenance, trash, and water; Senior community

Exterior

• Parking: Attached carport; Driveway; Concrete parking; 1 total parking space
• Utilities: Private well water; Septic tank sewer
• Home design: Double-wide mobile home; One story; New construction; Residential mobile home
• Construction: Asphalt shingle roof
• Exterior features: Cleared lot; Level lot; Wooded lot; Paved road access; Community pool; Community clubhouse

Interior

• Kitchen: Dishwasher; Electric oven; Electric range; Range hood; Garbage disposal; Refrigerator; Pantry; Breakfast bar; Laminate counters
• Bedrooms: Master bedroom downstairs
• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms
• Heating & cooling: Central heating (electric); Central air conditioning
• Interior features: Breakfast bar; Laminate countertops; Pantry; Walk-in closet(s); Master bedroom on main level

🏗️ New construction. The $209,900 list price is a builder figure, so every metric below is computed on the value from comparable previous sales — $147,400.

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath manufactured listed at $210k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $238 ($3k/yr) — positive.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $189k (9.8% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $200k (4.8% below list).
• Recommended offer: $185k (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 8.2% vs local median 3.4% in Pine Ridge — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 67/100 on livability (#565 in FL) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: crime A+, housing A+, cost of living A-; Watch: health & safety C-, amenities F, commute F.
• Citrus (rural): math 49% / reading 50% proficiency, ranked #44 of 73 in FL (top 60%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: Citrus Springs Elementary School (math 52% / reading 48%, grade D+, #1,070 of 2,144 statewide, top 51%, 817 students, 71% FRL); Crystal River Middle School (math 49% / reading 47%, grade C-, #286 of 571 statewide, top 50%, 900 students, 64% FRL); Crystal River High School (math 31% / reading 44%, grade F, #336 of 667 statewide, top 51%, 1,249 students, 56% FRL).
• Market conditions: 653 active listings in the ZIP; 2,443 units permitted in Citrus County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $4k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Citrus County population projected to shrink 10% by 2050 — rents likely to lag national; underwrite the cash flow, not the appreciation.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 279 days — a 12% lower offer ($185k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; major wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→25/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $184,712 (12.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 279 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
3. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.36% ✓
• Cap rate: 8.23%
• Cash-on-cash: 6.91%
• DSCR: 1.31
• GRM: 6.1

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $147,400
• Comps found: 5

Show comp detail 5 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
8385 N Shady Fork Way	0.11mi	3/2.0	1,512 (+3%)	8mo	$151,000	$100	84
8033 N Mary Ter	0.24mi	3/2.0	1,432 (-3%)	5mo	$145,000	$101	80
8445 N Cedar Elm Way	0.17mi	2/2.0 (-1)	1,344 (-9%)	11mo	$125,000	$93	64
8645 N Ural Pt	0.50mi	3/2.0	1,344 (-9%)	2mo	$238,500	$177	60
7925 W Fostoria Dr	0.23mi	3/2.0	1,648 (+12%)	18mo	$160,000	$97	54

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -5.5%
• Equity multiple: 0.79×
• Total profit: $-8,522
• Equity at exit: $21,978

10-year hold

• IRR: 4.3%
• Equity multiple: 1.31×
• Total profit: $12,996
• Equity at exit: $12,744

Cash invested: $41,272 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Florida: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+3
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day pay-or-quit; preempts local rent control; landlord-friendly statutes. Court speed varies by county.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 34433

• Home prices YoY: -1.8%
• Active inventory: 653
• Price-to-rent: 8.7×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,999 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$773
• Tax from tax record: −$228 /mo · $2,739/yr
• Insurance: −$61
• HOA: −$279
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$420
• Net cashflow: $238

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,698

Max offer price $147,400

Occupancy floor 83%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $321	-5% $279	+0% $238	+5% $196	+10% $154
Rent	-10% $80	-5% $159	+0% $238	+5% $317	+10% $396
Rate	-1.0pp $312	-0.5pp $275	base $238	+0.5pp $199	+1.0pp $161

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $36,850
• Closing costs: $4,422
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

HOA detail

• Monthly dues: $279 · $3,348/yr
• Likely covers: watertrashinternetcablelandscapingpool

Listing history 23 events

1. 2026-06-21
   days on market $209,900 Active 279 DOM
2. 2026-06-19
   days on market $209,900 Active 277 DOM
3. 2026-06-18
   days on market $209,900 Active 276 DOM
4. 2026-06-17
   days on market $209,900 Active 275 DOM
5. 2026-06-16
   days on market $209,900 Active 274 DOM
6. 2026-06-15
   days on market $209,900 Active 273 DOM
7. 2026-06-14
   days on market $209,900 Active 271 DOM
8. 2026-06-13
   days on market $209,900 Active 270 DOM
9. 2026-06-09
   days on market $209,900 Active 267 DOM
10. 2026-06-08
    days on market $209,900 Active 266 DOM
11. 2026-06-03
    days on market $209,900 Active 261 DOM
12. 2026-06-02
    days on market $209,900 Active 260 DOM
13. 2026-06-01
    days on market $209,900 Active 259 DOM
14. 2026-05-31
    days on market $209,900 Active 258 DOM
15. 2026-05-30
    days on market $209,900 Active 257 DOM
16. 2025-12-18
    price $209,900
17. 2025-09-15
    listed $219,900 Active
18. 2025-06-25
    price $219,900
19. 2024-12-31
    price $234,900
20. 2024-11-01
    price $239,800
21. 2024-07-17
    price $239,900
22. 2024-05-30
    price $259,900
23. 2000-05-01
    soldstatus $265,000

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast FL · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $2,739 · $228/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $2,739 · $228/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 6/10 Major
• 🌡 Heat 9/10 Extreme 7 d/yr ≥109°F today · 25 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 9/10 Extreme 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 2 unhealthy d/yr today · 2 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $23,989
• − Mortgage interest: −$8,257
• − Property taxes: −$2,739
• − Insurance: −$737
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,919
• − Management: −$1,919
• − HOA: −$3,348
• − Depreciation: −$4,288
• Taxable income: $782
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$188
• After-tax cash flow: $2,664/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Citrus
• NCES district ID: 1200270
• Math proficiency: 49% ▼ -10.00%
• Reading proficiency: 50% ▼ -6.00%
• Median HH income: $38,618
• Composite: 41.28/100
• National rank: #3519
• State rank: #44 of 73 in FL

Livability — Pine Ridge

• Score: 67/100
• State rank: #565
• US rank: #10798

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A- Crime A+ Employment B- Housing A+ Health & safety C- User ratings A+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• City population: 18,514
• Population (ZIP): 8,218

Population outlook (Citrus County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 138,622 people
• By 2030: 136,886 · -1.3%
• By 2040: 132,009 · -4.8%
• By 2050: 125,196 · -9.7%
• By 2075: 108,570 · -21.7%
• By 2100: 84,454 · -39.1%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (76%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 76% Hispanic / Latino 13% Two or more races 13%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Puerto Rican 6% Cuban 1%
• Common ancestry: Italian 2% Romanian 2% Lithuanian 1%
• Foreign-born: 9% · Canada
• Languages at home: 90% English-only · Spanish 9% Other Indo-European 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Citrus

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+45.9) · D 26.8% · R 72.6%
• 2008→2024 swing: -29.8pp toward R · 2008: -16.1pp · 2024: -45.9pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+45.9 2020: R+41.0 2016: R+39.7 2012: R+21.9 2008: R+16.1

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -6.35%
• Current HPI: 340.9844
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.28%
• F500 in state: 36

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in FL)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Industrial Technology	2	$29B
▸Insurance	2	$17B
▸Retail	1	$60B
▸Technology Distribution	1	$58B
▸Homebuilding	1	$35B
▸Technology Manufacturing	1	$35B

Price history

-20.8% since first listed

8 events — show timeline

• 2025-12-18 Price Changed $209,900 RACC
• 2025-09-15 Listed $219,900 RACC
• 2025-06-25 Price Changed $219,900 RACC
• 2024-12-31 Price Changed $234,900 RACC
• 2024-11-01 Price Changed $239,800 RACC
• 2024-07-17 Price Changed $239,900 RACC
• 2024-05-30 Price Changed $259,900 RACC
• 2000-05-01 Sold (Public Records) $265,000 Public Records

Property tax history

+17.2%/yr

Latest (2025): $2,739 · +1891.6% YoY. Source: county tax records.