319 N Oak St · Town of Pecos, TX 79772

$240,000

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,476 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 65 Days on market

Built 1930 6,882 sqft lot $163/sqft · 17% above area Est $216k · 11% over ↓ 4% since listing

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Why this score? — see what drove the D- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +12.5/30.0
• Appreciation +4.5/10.0
• DSCR +3.7/10.0
• 1% rule +2.5/10.0
• ARV discount +2.5/15.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Schools +2.5/10.0
• Livability +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0

Listing remarks MLS

Move-in ready home for sale! This home has been completely remodeled, all electrical and plumbing have been upgraded, new metal roof, new windows, new central heat and air, new water heater, all were replaced in 2024. The owners outdid themselves with beautiful modern finishes throughout! New vinyl flooring, kitchen cabinets, countertops and fixtures! You'll enjoy a sequestered master bedroom with double vanities in the bathroom! House sits on a huge lot with 2 water wells plus storage!

Key facts

• New metal roof
• Upgraded plumbing
• Completely remodeled

Tags

• COMPLETELY REMODELED
• UPGRADED ELECTRICAL
• UPGRADED PLUMBING
• NEW METAL ROOF
• NEW WINDOWS
• NEW CENTRAL HEAT

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $240k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-35 ($-421/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $234k (2.6% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $180k (25.0% below list).
• Recommended offer: $180k (25.0% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.

Location & tenants

• Location reads: area grade D — affects rentability + tenant quality, not the cash-flow math above.
• Pecos-Barstow-Toyah ISD (town): math 28% / reading 30% proficiency, ranked #652 of 826 in TX (top 79%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover; 66% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Zoned schools: Austin El (math 22% / reading 32%, grade F, #2,791 of 4,322 statewide, top 68%, 644 students, 80% FRL); Crockett Middle (math 30% / reading 29%, grade F, #1,077 of 1,662 statewide, top 66%, 635 students, 77% FRL); Pecos H S (math 12% / reading 25%, grade F, #1,436 of 1,632 statewide, top 88%, 766 students, 54% FRL) — zoned schools at 70% FRL track the district average.
• Market conditions: 92 active listings in the ZIP; 1 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; 22 units permitted in Reeves County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-1.1%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $3k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Reeves County population projected at +45% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 65 days — a 6% lower offer ($226k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 3 sale attempts with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: built in 1930 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.
• Climate carrying-cost: major wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→20/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $180,000 (25.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 65 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 25% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. Built in 1930 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
4. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
5. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
6. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
7. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
8. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
9. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.75% ✗
• Cap rate: 6.12%
• Cash-on-cash: -0.63%
• DSCR: 0.97
• GRM: 11.1

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $216,011
• List price: $240,000
• Delta: 11.11%
• Verdict: OVERPRICED
• Comps: 1 within 2.0 mi

Projected returns pro-forma

-1.09% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -7.4%
• Equity multiple: 0.68×
• Total profit: $-21,362
• Equity at exit: $56,909

10-year hold

• IRR: -0.5%
• Equity multiple: 0.95×
• Total profit: $-3,309
• Equity at exit: $58,890

Cash invested: $67,200 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 79772

• Home prices YoY: -0.7%
• Active inventory: 92
• Price-to-rent: 11.1×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,800 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,259
• Tax from tax record: −$98 /mo · $1,182/yr
• Insurance: −$100
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$378
• Net cashflow: $-35

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,844

Max offer price $233,809

Occupancy floor 97%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $101	-5% $33	+0% $-35	+5% $-103	+10% $-171
Rent	-10% $-177	-5% $-106	+0% $-35	+5% $36	+10% $107
Rate	-1.0pp $86	-0.5pp $26	base $-35	+0.5pp $-97	+1.0pp $-161

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $60,000
• Closing costs: $7,200
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 1 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
415 S Cherry St Unit B Pecos, TX	2.0	1.0	980	$1,800	$1.84	45d	1	0.61mi

Listing history 23 events

1. 2026-06-21
   days on market $240,000 Active 65 DOM
2. 2026-06-21
   days on market $240,000 Active 64 DOM
3. 2026-06-18
   days on market $240,000 Active 62 DOM
4. 2026-06-17
   days on market $240,000 Active 61 DOM
5. 2026-06-16
   days on market $240,000 Active 60 DOM
6. 2026-06-15
   days on market $240,000 Active 59 DOM
7. 2026-06-15
   days on market $240,000 Active 58 DOM
8. 2026-06-13
   days on market $240,000 Active 57 DOM
9. 2026-06-12
   days on market $240,000 Active 56 DOM
10. 2026-06-10
    days on market $240,000 Active 53 DOM
11. 2026-06-08
    days on market $240,000 Active 52 DOM
12. 2026-06-08
    days on market $240,000 Active 51 DOM
13. 2026-06-07
    days on market $240,000 Active 50 DOM
14. 2026-06-03
    days on market $240,000 Active 49 DOM
15. 2026-06-02
    days on market $240,000 Active 48 DOM
16. 2026-06-01
    days on market $240,000 Active 47 DOM
17. 2026-05-31
    days on market $240,000 Active 46 DOM
18. 2026-05-03
    status Active 496-char remark

    Show marketing remark (496 chars)

    Move-in ready home for sale! This home has been completely remodeled, all electrical and plumbing have been upgraded, new metal roof, new windows, new central heat and air, new water heater, all were replaced in 2024. The owners outdid themselves with beautiful modern finishes throughout! New vinyl flooring, kitchen cabinets, countertops and fixtures! You'll enjoy a sequestered master bedroom with double vanities in the bathroom! House sits on a huge lot with 2 water wells plus storage!

19. 2026-04-22
    historical 496-char remark

    Show marketing remark (496 chars)

    Move-in ready home for sale! This home has been completely remodeled, all electrical and plumbing have been upgraded, new metal roof, new windows, new central heat and air, new water heater, all were replaced in 2024. The owners outdid themselves with beautiful modern finishes throughout! New vinyl flooring, kitchen cabinets, countertops and fixtures! You'll enjoy a sequestered master bedroom with double vanities in the bathroom! House sits on a huge lot with 2 water wells plus storage!

20. 2026-04-18
    status Active 496-char remark

    Show marketing remark (496 chars)

    Move-in ready home for sale! This home has been completely remodeled, all electrical and plumbing have been upgraded, new metal roof, new windows, new central heat and air, new water heater, all were replaced in 2024. The owners outdid themselves with beautiful modern finishes throughout! New vinyl flooring, kitchen cabinets, countertops and fixtures! You'll enjoy a sequestered master bedroom with double vanities in the bathroom! House sits on a huge lot with 2 water wells plus storage!

21. 2026-03-16
    historical 496-char remark

    Show marketing remark (496 chars)

    Move-in ready home for sale! This home has been completely remodeled, all electrical and plumbing have been upgraded, new metal roof, new windows, new central heat and air, new water heater, all were replaced in 2024. The owners outdid themselves with beautiful modern finishes throughout! New vinyl flooring, kitchen cabinets, countertops and fixtures! You'll enjoy a sequestered master bedroom with double vanities in the bathroom! House sits on a huge lot with 2 water wells plus storage!

22. 2026-03-02
    listed $240,000 Active 496-char remark

    Show marketing remark (496 chars)

    Move-in ready home for sale! This home has been completely remodeled, all electrical and plumbing have been upgraded, new metal roof, new windows, new central heat and air, new water heater, all were replaced in 2024. The owners outdid themselves with beautiful modern finishes throughout! New vinyl flooring, kitchen cabinets, countertops and fixtures! You'll enjoy a sequestered master bedroom with double vanities in the bathroom! House sits on a huge lot with 2 water wells plus storage!

23. 2025-02-15
    price $249,000

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast TX · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $1,182 · $98/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $4,392 · $366/mo
• Expected delta: +$3,210/yr (+$268/mo · 271.7%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 6/10 Major
• 🌡 Heat 7/10 Severe 7 d/yr ≥105°F today · 20 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 1/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 1/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 0 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $21,600
• − Mortgage interest: −$13,444
• − Property taxes: −$1,182
• − Insurance: −$1,200
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,728
• − Management: −$1,728
• − Depreciation: −$6,982
• Taxable loss: −$4,663
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$1,119
• After-tax cash flow: $699/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Pecos-Barstow-Toyah ISD
• NCES district ID: 4834550
• Math proficiency: 28% ▼ -7.00%
• Reading proficiency: 30% ▲ 1.00%
• Median HH income: $41,982
• Composite: 24.61/100
• National rank: #7632
• State rank: #652 of 826 in TX

Livability — Town of Pecos

No livability data for this city. (Only ~50 U.S. cities are tracked.)

Census & demographics

• Census place: Town of Pecos, TX
• City population: 12,547
• Population (ZIP): 12,547

Population outlook (Reeves County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 17,069 people
• By 2030: 18,407 · +7.8%
• By 2040: 21,342 · +25.0%
• By 2050: 24,701 · +44.7%
• By 2075: 32,688 · +91.5%
• By 2100: 36,117 · +111.6%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly Hispanic (85%)
• Race & ethnicity: Hispanic / Latino 85% Two or more races 22% White 12% Black 2% Native American 1%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 78%
• Common ancestry: Iranian 1% Serbian 1%
• Foreign-born: 19% · Canada
• Languages at home: 38% English-only · Spanish 62%

Political lean MEDSL · Reeves

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+36.9) · D 31.1% · R 68.0%
• 2008→2024 swing: -42.2pp toward R · 2008: 5.2pp · 2024: -36.9pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+36.9 2020: R+23.3 2016: D+7.6 2012: D+16.2 2008: D+5.2

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -1.09%
• Current HPI: 147.9377
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Price history

-3.6% since first listed

6 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-03 Relisted — ODMLS
• 2026-04-22 Delisted — ODMLS
• 2026-04-18 Relisted — ODMLS
• 2026-03-16 Delisted — ODMLS
• 2026-03-02 Listed $240,000 ODMLS
• 2025-02-15 Price Changed $249,000 ODMLS

Property tax history

+5.0%/yr

Latest (2025): $1,182 · +15.4% YoY. Source: county tax records.