Trinity Plan · Cut and Shoot, TX 77303

$279,990

4 bd · 2.5 ba · 2,513 sqft · SingleFamily · 446 Days on market

Excellent condition

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Why this score? — see what drove the F grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Cash flow +6.9/30.0
• Schools +5.1/10.0
• Condition / age +4.8/5.0
• Livability +2.8/5.0
• Rent growth +2.4/5.0
• 1% rule +1.9/10.0
• DSCR +1.2/10.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Our grandest home in the Cobalt Series, the Trinity floor plan boasts an impressive two-story floor plan that is sure to suit most any lifestyle. Upon entry, you are first greeted by the private study room that also has the option of transforming into a fifth bedroom if you would rather have the space for more guests to visit. Next, you will find the access to your convenient downstairs powder room, a walk-in utility room, as well as the entry to your two-and-a-half-car garage. Needing more storage for another car? Opt to swap your standard two-car garage for a sizable three-car garage! Down the hall, you will reach the heart of your home - the massive, two-story family room with soaring ceilings and consisting of plenty of natural light. Opening up to the family room is the convenient adjoined kitchen and breakfast area with access to your optional extended covered patio. Your elegant kitchen comes fully equipped with industry-leading appliances, sleek granite countertops with a ceramic tile backsplash, designer light fixtures, and the option to put in an island and extra cabinets if you desire more counterspace. With features like these, you will want to cook every meal! Completing the first floor is your secluded Master suite with your master bathroom containing the cultured marble countertops with option of dual vanities, a shower/bathtub enclosure, and a huge walk- in closet. Upgrade your bathroom space to include a master luxury bath with stand alone shower or a. ..

Key facts

• Three-car garage
• Private study room
• Walk-in utility room

Tags

• PRIVATE STUDY ROOM
• DOWNSTAIRS POWDER ROOM
• WALK-IN UTILITY ROOM
• TWO-AND-A-HALF-CAR GARAGE
• THREE-CAR GARAGE
• TWO-STORY FAMILY ROOM

🏗️ New construction. The $279,990 list price is a builder figure, so every metric below is computed on the value from comparable previous sales — $329,387.

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 4-bed/2.5-bath single-family listed at $280k. Condition is rated excellent.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-492 ($-6k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $258k (7.8% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $226k (19.3% below list).
• Recommended offer: $226k (19.3% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 56/100 on livability (#1,326 in TX) — a working-class tenant base; expect higher turnover. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: crime D-, amenities F, commute F.
• Conroe ISD (other): math 57% / reading 57% proficiency, ranked #69 of 826 in TX (top 8%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Zoned schools: Austin El (math 39% / reading 29%, grade F, #2,149 of 4,322 statewide, top 50%, 950 students, 81% FRL); Moorhead J H (math 35% / reading 42%, grade F, #704 of 1,662 statewide, top 43%, 1,391 students, 82% FRL); Conroe H S (math 32% / reading 51%, grade F, #767 of 1,632 statewide, top 47%, 4,915 students, 61% FRL) — zoned schools average 75% FRL vs 34% district-wide (40 pts higher); higher-poverty schools than district average — tighter screening recommended.
• Zoned-school proficiency averages 38% at this address vs 57% district-wide (-19 pts) — the specific schools serving this property underperform the Conroe ISD average; the district grade overstates school quality for this exact location.
• Market conditions: Rents soft (-0.3%/yr); 721 active listings in the ZIP; 2 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; solid renter incomes; 13,259 units permitted in Montgomery County in 2024 (1,402 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 36% of the median local income ($75k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $10k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Montgomery County population projected at +65% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 446 days — a 12% lower offer ($246k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: moderate flood risk; severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; moderate wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→23/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $225,892 (19.3% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 446 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 19% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
6. Crime grade is D in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
7. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
8. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
9. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
10. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.69% ✗
• Cap rate: 4.50%
• Cash-on-cash: -6.40%
• DSCR: 0.72
• GRM: 12.2

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $329,387
• List price: $279,990
• Delta: -15.00%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
9171 Whitetail Dr	0.49mi	4/3.0	2,444 (-3%)	4mo	$459,900	$188	67
4618 Axis Trl	0.47mi	4/3.0	2,396 (-5%)	3mo	$515,000	$215	66
9222 White Tail Dr	0.64mi	4/3.0	2,564 (+2%)	6mo	$449,000	$175	60
4626 Axis Trl	0.43mi	4/3.0	2,810 (+12%)	0mo	$515,000	$183	58
14431 Elmfield Ln	0.65mi	3/2.5 (-1)	2,447 (-3%)	3mo	$299,900	$123	58
9774 Caney Bend Rd	0.75mi	4/2.5	2,472 (-2%)	8mo	$284,900	$115	56
14219 Spring Valley Dr	0.65mi	3/2.5 (-1)	2,447 (-3%)	7mo	$284,900	$116	54
9203 White Tail Dr	0.60mi	4/2.0	2,287 (-9%)	3mo	$469,000	$205	53
14212 Spring Valley Dr	0.68mi	4/2.5	2,641 (+5%)	9mo	$289,900	$110	52
9530 Shady Trail Dr	0.74mi	5/3.0 (+1)	2,439 (-3%)	6mo	$288,900	$118	49
9184 White Tail Dr	0.56mi	4/3.0	2,810 (+12%)	9mo	$485,000	$173	44
9340 Shady Creek Dr	0.66mi	4/2.5	2,178 (-13%)	9mo	$274,900	$126	40

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 0.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -30.7%
• Equity multiple: 0.01×
• Total profit: $-91,282
• Equity at exit: $49,113

10-year hold

• IRR: -53.1%
• Equity multiple: -0.58×
• Total profit: $-145,262
• Equity at exit: $28,479

Cash invested: $92,228 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 77303

• Home prices YoY: -22.4%
• Rents YoY: -0.3%
• Active inventory: 721
• Price-to-rent: 10.3×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,259 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,727
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$412 /mo · $4,941/yr
• Insurance: −$137
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$474
• Net cashflow: $-492

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,881

Max offer price $258,228

Occupancy floor —

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $-264	-5% $-378	+0% $-492	+5% $-606	+10% $-719
Rent	-10% $-670	-5% $-581	+0% $-492	+5% $-403	+10% $-313
Rate	-1.0pp $-326	-0.5pp $-408	base $-492	+0.5pp $-577	+1.0pp $-664

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $82,347
• Closing costs: $9,882
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 2 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
9262 Laiden Creek Trl Conroe, TX	3.0–4.0	2.0–2.5	1601	$2,135	$1.33	0d	14	0.12mi
9248 Laiden Creek Trl Unit 510 Conroe, TX	3.0	2.0	1788	$1,984	$1.11	0d	1	0.13mi

Listing history 15 events

1. 2026-06-21
   days on market $279,990 Active 446 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   days on market $279,990 Active 443 DOM
3. 2026-06-17
   days on market $279,990 Active 442 DOM
4. 2026-06-16
   days on market $279,990 Active 441 DOM
5. 2026-06-15
   days on market $279,990 Active 440 DOM
6. 2026-06-13
   days on market $279,990 Active 438 DOM
7. 2026-06-09
   days on market $279,990 Active 434 DOM
8. 2026-06-08
   days on market $279,990 Active 433 DOM
9. 2026-06-07
   days on market $279,990 Active 432 DOM
10. 2026-06-04
    days on market $279,990 Active 429 DOM
11. 2026-06-03
    days on market $279,990 Active 428 DOM
12. 2026-06-02
    days on market $279,990 Active 427 DOM
13. 2026-06-01
    days on market $279,990 Active 426 DOM
14. 2026-05-31
    days on market $279,990 Active 425 DOM
15. 2025-04-01
    listed $279,990 Active 1496-char remark

    Show marketing remark (1496 chars)

    Our grandest home in the Cobalt Series, the Trinity floor plan boasts an impressive two-story floor plan that is sure to suit most any lifestyle. Upon entry, you are first greeted by the private study room that also has the option of transforming into a fifth bedroom if you would rather have the space for more guests to visit. Next, you will find the access to your convenient downstairs powder room, a walk-in utility room, as well as the entry to your two-and-a-half-car garage. Needing more storage for another car? Opt to swap your standard two-car garage for a sizable three-car garage! Down the hall, you will reach the heart of your home - the massive, two-story family room with soaring ceilings and consisting of plenty of natural light. Opening up to the family room is the convenient adjoined kitchen and breakfast area with access to your optional extended covered patio. Your elegant kitchen comes fully equipped with industry-leading appliances, sleek granite countertops with a ceramic tile backsplash, designer light fixtures, and the option to put in an island and extra cabinets if you desire more counterspace. With features like these, you will want to cook every meal! Completing the first floor is your secluded Master suite with your master bathroom containing the cultured marble countertops with option of dual vanities, a shower/bathtub enclosure, and a huge walk- in closet. Upgrade your bathroom space to include a master luxury bath with stand alone shower or a. ..

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 5/10 Major FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 67% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 5/10 Major
• 🌡 Heat 8/10 Severe 7 d/yr ≥111°F today · 23 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 8/10 Severe 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 1 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $27,107
• − Mortgage interest: −$18,451
• − Property taxes: −$4,941
• − Insurance: −$1,647
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,169
• − Management: −$2,169
• − Depreciation: −$9,582
• Taxable loss: −$11,851
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$2,844
• After-tax cash flow: $-3,057/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Condition & rehab AI · 1 photo

Excellent 95/100 None rehab

This single-family home in the Trinity Plan is in excellent condition with no visible repairs needed. It offers a good return on investment with updates that can further enhance its resale and rental value.

Value-add opportunities

• Both Paint exterior and interior — Fresh paint enhances curb appeal and interior aesthetics
• Both Replace landscaping with more drought-resistant plants — Improves curb appeal and reduces maintenance costs
• Both Install smart home automation — Enhances home's marketability and adds value

Renovation cost estimate screening

Value-add ROI direction

• Both Paint exterior and interior — Fresh paint enhances curb appeal and interior aesthetics ↑
• Both Replace landscaping with more drought-resistant plants — Improves curb appeal and reduces maintenance costs ↑
• Both Install smart home automation — Enhances home's marketability and adds value ↑

ⓘ Cost ranges are severity-bucket heuristics (US national rule-of-thumb). Get contractor quotes + a written scope before underwriting a rehab budget.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Conroe ISD
• NCES district ID: 4815000
• Math proficiency: 57% ▼ -6.00%
• Reading proficiency: 57% ▼ -1.00%
• Median HH income: $71,541
• Composite: 50.65/100
• National rank: #1833
• State rank: #69 of 826 in TX

Livability — Cut and Shoot

• Score: 56/100
• State rank: #1326
• US rank: #22835

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime D- Employment C Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• County: Montgomery County · 663,713 people
• Metro: Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land, TX
• Population (ZIP): 28,854
• Household income: $75,348
• Rent vs Own: 25.8% rent · 74.2% own
• Severe rent burden: 464.0

Population outlook (Montgomery County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 713,896 people
• By 2030: 805,263 · +12.8%
• By 2040: 992,708 · +39.1%
• By 2050: 1,179,590 · +65.2%
• By 2075: 1,628,084 · +128.1%
• By 2100: 1,937,880 · +171.5%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.56)
• Race & ethnicity: White 54% Hispanic / Latino 38% Two or more races 17% Black 4%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 25%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 1% Romanian 1% Slovak 1%
• Foreign-born: 13% · Canada, Jamaica
• Languages at home: 69% English-only · Spanish 31%

Political lean MEDSL · Montgomery

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+45.5) · D 26.8% · R 72.3%
• 2008→2024 swing: +7.2pp toward D · 2008: -52.7pp · 2024: -45.5pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+45.5 2020: R+43.8 2016: R+51.4 2012: R+60.7 2008: R+52.7

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -77.71%
• Current HPI: 269.5367
• Rent YoY: ▼ -0.31%
• Metro: Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land, TX
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Price history

1 event — show timeline

• 2025-04-01 Listed $279,990 Zillow