48 Arbutus Dr · Duluth, MN 55810

$69,900

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,216 sqft · SingleFamily · 29 Days on market

Built 1994 Fair condition $57/sqft · 28% below area Est $97k · 28% under

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Why this score? — see what drove the A grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +30.0/30.0
• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• 1% rule +10.0/10.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• Appreciation +10.0/10.0
• Livability +4.1/5.0
• Schools +3.9/10.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.2/5.0

Listing remarks MLS

Woods behind in this Zenith Terrace 3BR/2BA Schult home with covered porch & 1+ car garage. Lot rent is $750/mo. New buyer needs park approval before buying. $20/mo for garbage. Water/Sewer is metered and paid to Zenith Terrace: $24/mo; MN Power: $100/mo average

Key facts

• Garage
• Built 1994
• Listed 29 days

🏷️ Possibly a rental listed for sale. The $69,900 price doesn't fit this home's estimated sale value (~$96,684) and the remarks read like a rental — treat the cards below with caution.

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $70k. Condition is rated fair.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $531 ($6k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($1k rent vs $70k).
• Recommended offer: $69k (1.5% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 15.4% vs local median 4.9% in Duluth — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 82/100 on livability (#36 in MN, #1,060 nationally) — a professional / high-income tenant draw. Strengths: commute A+, cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: amenities F.
• Proctor Public School District (suburban): math 39% / reading 49% proficiency, ranked #177 of 301 in MN (top 59%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Market conditions: 50 active listings in the ZIP; 639 units permitted in St. Louis County in 2024 (338 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $7k of equity ($483 loan paydown + $7k appreciation (10.0% local appreciation)).
• At projected returns (10.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $20k cash investment doubles in ~2 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
• By year 5, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$35k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 29 days — a 2% lower offer ($69k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 2 sale attempts with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.

Recommended offer $68,851 (1.5% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. Have any recent inspections been done? Can we get a copy of the seller's disclosures and any deferred-maintenance estimates?
2. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
3. Schools are B-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
4. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
5. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
6. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.84% ✓
• Cap rate: 15.40%
• Cash-on-cash: 32.54%
• DSCR: 2.45
• GRM: 4.5

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $96,684
• List price: $69,900
• Delta: -27.70%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
48 Arbutus Dr	0.00mi	3/2.0	1,216 (0%)	1mo	$70,000	$58	100
21 Kalmia Dr	0.20mi	3/2.0	1,216 (0%)	1mo	$85,000	$70	90
9234 Brook St	0.43mi	3/2.0	1,216 (0%)	1mo	$245,000	$201	80
7 Greenbriar Dr	0.39mi	2/2.0 (-1)	1,216 (0%)	1mo	$80,000	$66	76
33 Ivy Dr	0.30mi	3/2.0	1,296 (+7%)	2mo	$98,500	$76	74
4 Plumtree Cir	0.13mi	3/2.0	1,072 (-12%)	8mo	$79,900	$75	68
110 Grove St	0.53mi	2/2.0 (-1)	1,156 (-5%)	5mo	$271,000	$234	58
9235 Meadow St	0.40mi	3/1.0	1,309 (+8%)	10mo	$179,000	$137	56
8 4th St	0.48mi	3/2.0	1,371 (+13%)	1mo	$175,000	$128	56
9123 Brook St	0.35mi	2/2.0 (-1)	1,091 (-10%)	7mo	$220,000	$202	55
111 2nd St	0.55mi	2/2.5 (-1)	1,332 (+10%)	1mo	$310,000	$233	51
132 1st St	0.57mi	2/1.0 (-1)	1,066 (-12%)	12mo	$145,000	$136	34

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

10.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 49.1%
• Equity multiple: 4.67×
• Total profit: $71,894
• Equity at exit: $62,971

10-year hold

• IRR: 42.9%
• Equity multiple: 10.46×
• Total profit: $185,169
• Equity at exit: $135,800

Cash invested: $19,572 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 46 Balanced
• State Minnesota: 46 Balanced · D+2
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

2024 reforms strengthened tenant protections; ramsey/hennepin courts paced moderate to slow.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 55810

• Home prices YoY: 11.6%
• Active inventory: 50
• Price-to-rent: 4.5×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,283 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$367
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$87 /mo · $1,048/yr
• Insurance: −$29
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$269
• Net cashflow: $531

Break-even live

Break-even rent $611

Max offer price $69,900

Occupancy floor 54%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $17,475
• Closing costs: $2,097
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 4 events

1. 2026-05-09
   status Pending 268-char remark

   Show marketing remark (268 chars)

   Woods behind in this Zenith Terrace 3BR/2BA Schult home with covered porch & 1+ car garage. Lot rent is $750/mo. New buyer needs park approval before buying. $20/mo for garbage. Water/Sewer is metered and paid to Zenith Terrace: $24/mo; MN Power: $100/mo average

2. 2026-05-04
   status Active 268-char remark

   Show marketing remark (268 chars)

   Woods behind in this Zenith Terrace 3BR/2BA Schult home with covered porch & 1+ car garage. Lot rent is $750/mo. New buyer needs park approval before buying. $20/mo for garbage. Water/Sewer is metered and paid to Zenith Terrace: $24/mo; MN Power: $100/mo average

3. 2026-04-17
   status Pending 268-char remark

   Show marketing remark (268 chars)

   Woods behind in this Zenith Terrace 3BR/2BA Schult home with covered porch & 1+ car garage. Lot rent is $750/mo. New buyer needs park approval before buying. $20/mo for garbage. Water/Sewer is metered and paid to Zenith Terrace: $24/mo; MN Power: $100/mo average

4. 2026-03-23
   listed $69,900 Active 268-char remark

   Show marketing remark (268 chars)

   Woods behind in this Zenith Terrace 3BR/2BA Schult home with covered porch & 1+ car garage. Lot rent is $750/mo. New buyer needs park approval before buying. $20/mo for garbage. Water/Sewer is metered and paid to Zenith Terrace: $24/mo; MN Power: $100/mo average

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 3/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 1/10 Low 7 d/yr ≥89°F today · 14 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 1/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 1/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 0 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $15,400
• − Mortgage interest: −$3,915
• − Property taxes: −$1,048
• − Insurance: −$350
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,232
• − Management: −$1,232
• − Depreciation: −$2,033
• Taxable income: $5,589
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$1,341
• After-tax cash flow: $5,028/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Condition & rehab AI · 13 photos

Fair 45/100 Moderate rehab

This mobile home requires moderate renovations to update the kitchen and bathrooms, paint interior walls, and replace carpeting. These updates would significantly increase its resale and rental value.

Repairs flagged

• Moderate kitchen cabinets — dated and worn
• Moderate bathroom fixtures — dated and worn
• Minor HVAC system — no visible damage

Value-add opportunities

• Both update kitchen cabinets and appliances — modernizing kitchen would appeal to buyers and renters
• Both replace bathroom fixtures and cabinetry — modernizing bathrooms would appeal to buyers and renters
• Both paint interior walls — fresh paint would improve curb appeal and interior aesthetics
• Both replace carpeting — new carpet would improve comfort and appearance

Renovation cost estimate screening

Repair item	Severity	Est. cost
kitchen cabinets · dated and worn	Moderate	$3,000–15,000
bathroom fixtures · dated and worn	Moderate	$3,000–15,000
HVAC system · no visible damage	Minor	$500–3,000
Total estimated repair cost · 3 items		$6,500–33,000

Value-add ROI direction

• Both update kitchen cabinets and appliances — modernizing kitchen would appeal to buyers and renters ↑
• Both replace bathroom fixtures and cabinetry — modernizing bathrooms would appeal to buyers and renters ↑
• Both paint interior walls — fresh paint would improve curb appeal and interior aesthetics ↑
• Both replace carpeting — new carpet would improve comfort and appearance ↑

ⓘ Cost ranges are severity-bucket heuristics (US national rule-of-thumb). Get contractor quotes + a written scope before underwriting a rehab budget.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Proctor Public School District
• NCES district ID: 2730090
• Math proficiency: 39% ▼ -20.00%
• Reading proficiency: 49% ▼ -11.00%
• Median HH income: $61,151
• Composite: 38.84/100
• National rank: #4106
• State rank: #177 of 301 in MN

Livability — Duluth

• Score: 82/100
• State rank: #36
• US rank: #1060

Category grades

Amenities F Commute A+ Cost of living A+ Crime C Employment C+ Housing A+ Health & safety A+ User ratings B-

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Duluth, MN
• City population: 71,097
• Population (ZIP): 8,305

Population outlook (St. Louis County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 202,411 people
• By 2030: 203,234 · +0.4%
• By 2040: 202,520 · +0.1%
• By 2050: 200,853 · -0.8%
• By 2075: 200,943 · -0.7%
• By 2100: 192,058 · -5.1%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (90%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 90% Two or more races 4% Native American 2% Asian 1% Black 1%
• Common ancestry: Portuguese 13% Romanian 5% Lithuanian 3%
• Foreign-born: 1% · China, Vietnam
• Languages at home: 98% English-only · Other Indo-European 1%

Political lean MEDSL · St. Louis

• 2024 margin: D (+13.7) · D 55.9% · R 42.2% · Other 1.8%
• 2008→2024 swing: -18.8pp toward R · 2008: 32.5pp · 2024: 13.7pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+13.7 2020: D+15.6 2016: D+11.8 2012: D+29.6 2008: D+32.5

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 53.59%
• Current HPI: 515.02
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.41%
• F500 in state: 34

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in MN)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Healthcare	2	$407B
▸Retail	2	$150B
▸Consumer Goods	2	$32B
▸Industrial Machinery	2	$6B
▸Agriculture	1	$40B
▸Healthcare / Medical Devices	1	$32B

Price history

4 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-09 Pending — LSAR
• 2026-05-04 Relisted — LSAR
• 2026-04-17 Pending — LSAR
• 2026-03-23 Listed $69,900 LSAR