129 River Rock St · Lincoln, AL 35096

$169,900

3 bd · 2.5 ba · 1,484 sqft · Townhouse · 47 Days on market

Built 2026 Good condition 2,613 sqft lot Est $169k · at est.

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Why this score? — see what drove the D grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +10.5/30.0
• ARV discount +7.3/15.0
• Appreciation +6.5/10.0
• Condition / age +4.0/5.0
• 1% rule +3.1/10.0
• Livability +3.1/5.0
• DSCR +3.0/10.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Schools +2.5/10.0

Listing remarks

Welcome to Driftwood Townhomes – where convenience meets comfort at an incredible value. Just minutes from Logan Martin Lake and the public access at Lincoln’s Landing, this community offers an ideal blend of accessibility and lifestyle. Whether you're looking for a low-maintenance home, a smart investment, or your first step into homeownership, Driftwood delivers. Designed with everyday living in mind, this townhome provides functional space that flows seamlessly—making daily routines simple and entertaining easy. With thoughtfully planned layouts and modern touches throughout, you’ll find everything you need without paying for what you don’t. Don’t miss

Key facts

• Garage
• Built 2026
• Listed 47 days

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.5-bath townhouse listed at $170k. Condition is rated good.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-86 ($-1k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $157k (7.4% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $138k (19.0% below list).
• Recommended offer: $138k (19.0% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 5.7% vs local median 4.2% in Lincoln — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 62/100 on livability (#230 in AL) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: crime D, amenities F, commute F.
• Talladega County (rural): math 15% / reading 44% proficiency, ranked #75 of 129 in AL (top 58%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover; 64% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Zoned schools: Lincoln Elementary School (math 20% / reading 48%, grade F, #311 of 627 statewide, top 50%, 853 students, 62% FRL); Lincoln High School (math 12% / reading 27%, grade F, #169 of 305 statewide, top 59%, 585 students, 68% FRL) — zoned schools at 65% FRL track the district average.
• Market conditions: 230 active listings in the ZIP; 3 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals lingering (median 46d on market — plan ~5-8 weeks vacancy on turnover, expect pricing pressure); 67% of comp listings sitting > 30 days — soft ceiling on asking rent; 189 units permitted in Talladega County in 2024 (6 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $6k of equity ($1k loan paydown + $5k appreciation (3.0% local appreciation)).
• Talladega County population projected at -14% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• By year 6, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$33k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 47 days — a 3% lower offer ($165k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Recommended offer $137,689 (19.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 47 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 19% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
5. Crime grade is D in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
6. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
7. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
8. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
9. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.81% ✗
• Cap rate: 5.68%
• Cash-on-cash: -2.18%
• DSCR: 0.90
• GRM: 10.3

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $169,176
• Comps found: 12

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
73 River Rock St	0.01mi	3/2.5	1,484 (0%)	2mo	$169,900	$114	97
107 River Rock St	0.02mi	3/2.5	1,484 (0%)	3mo	$169,000	$114	97
87 River Rock St	0.06mi	3/2.5	1,484 (0%)	2mo	$159,826	$108	96
35 River Rock St	0.04mi	3/2.5	1,484 (0%)	3mo	$163,000	$110	96
49 River Rock St	0.04mi	3/2.5	1,484 (0%)	4mo	$174,226	$117	95
53 River Rock St	0.04mi	3/2.5	1,484 (0%)	5mo	$162,000	$109	94
43 River Rock St	0.03mi	3/2.5	1,484 (0%)	5mo	$168,900	$114	94
59 River Rock St	0.04mi	3/2.5	1,484 (0%)	5mo	$187,590	$126	94
39 River Rock St	0.04mi	3/2.5	1,484 (0%)	5mo	$168,900	$114	94
135 Driftwood Ln	0.08mi	3/2.5	1,484 (0%)	4mo	$169,900	$114	92
95 River Grass Dr	0.12mi	3/2.5	1,484 (0%)	5mo	$183,830	$124	90
23 River Grass Dr	0.17mi	3/2.5	1,484 (0%)	6mo	$177,100	$119	87

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

2.96% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 5.4%
• Equity multiple: 1.31×
• Total profit: $14,622
• Equity at exit: $76,008

10-year hold

• IRR: 8.4%
• Equity multiple: 2.27×
• Total profit: $60,272
• Equity at exit: $116,839

Cash invested: $47,572 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 90 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Alabama: 90 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+15
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

Right-to-evict in 7 days for non-payment; no rent control; preempted statewide; courts move quickly.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 35096

• Home prices YoY: 1.2%
• Active inventory: 230
• Price-to-rent: 10.3×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,377 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$891
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$212 /mo · $2,548/yr
• Insurance: −$71
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$289
• Net cashflow: $-86

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,486

Max offer price $157,398

Occupancy floor —

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $31	-5% $-28	+0% $-86	+5% $-145	+10% $-204
Rent	-10% $-195	-5% $-141	+0% $-86	+5% $-32	+10% $22
Rate	-1.0pp $-1	-0.5pp $-43	base $-86	+0.5pp $-130	+1.0pp $-175

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $42,475
• Closing costs: $5,097
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 3 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
106 River Grass Dr Lincoln, AL	3.0	2.5	1484	$1,425	$0.96	18d	1	0.14mi
104 Marine Dr Lincoln, AL	3.0	2.5	1484	$1,300	$0.88	45d	1	0.18mi
98 Marine Dr Lincoln, AL	3.0	2.5	1484	$1,395	$0.94	45d	1	0.19mi

Listing history 2 events

1. 2026-04-02
   status Pending
2. 2026-02-13
   listed $169,900 Active

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $16,523
• − Mortgage interest: −$9,517
• − Property taxes: −$2,548
• − Insurance: −$850
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,322
• − Management: −$1,322
• − Depreciation: −$4,943
• Taxable loss: −$3,979
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$955
• After-tax cash flow: $-82/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Condition & rehab AI · 13 photos

Good 80/100 Cosmetic rehab

This townhouse is in good condition with modern finishes and a well-maintained exterior. A fresh coat of paint on the exterior trim would enhance its curb appeal and value.

Value-add opportunities

• Resale Paint exterior trim — Enhances curb appeal
• Rental Clean gutters — Keeps property in good condition

Renovation cost estimate screening

Value-add ROI direction

• Resale Paint exterior trim — Enhances curb appeal ↑
• Rental Clean gutters — Keeps property in good condition ↑

ⓘ Cost ranges are severity-bucket heuristics (US national rule-of-thumb). Get contractor quotes + a written scope before underwriting a rehab budget.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Talladega County
• NCES district ID: 0103180
• Math proficiency: 15% ▼ -24.00%
• Reading proficiency: 44% ▲ 3.00%
• Median HH income: $37,715
• Composite: 24.5/100
• National rank: #7650
• State rank: #75 of 129 in AL

Livability — Lincoln

• Score: 62/100
• State rank: #230
• US rank: #17221

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime D Employment C Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Lincoln, AL
• City population: 9,201
• Population (ZIP): 9,201

Population outlook (Talladega County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 78,905 people
• By 2030: 77,160 · -2.2%
• By 2040: 72,937 · -7.6%
• By 2050: 68,279 · -13.5%
• By 2075: 57,884 · -26.6%
• By 2100: 47,220 · -40.2%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (72%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 72% Black 19% Two or more races 7% Hispanic / Latino 2%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 2% Italian 1% Serbian 1%
• Foreign-born: 1% · Canada, Vietnam
• Languages at home: 98% English-only · Vietnamese 1% Spanish 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Talladega

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+33.8) · D 32.9% · R 66.6%
• 2008→2024 swing: -15.3pp toward R · 2008: -18.5pp · 2024: -33.8pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+33.8 2020: R+25.5 2016: R+25.6 2012: R+16.0 2008: R+18.5

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 2.96%
• Current HPI: 255.9195
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.94%
• F500 in state: 4

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in AL)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Financial Services	1	$8B
▸Healthcare	1	$5B

Price history

2 events — show timeline

• 2026-04-02 Pending — Greater Alabama MLS
• 2026-02-13 Listed $169,900 Greater Alabama MLS