5638 Avalon Way · Houston, TX 77057

$548,000

4 bd · 2.5 ba · 2,796 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 2 Days on market

Built 2000 2,378 sqft lot $196/sqft · 12% below area Est $620k · 12% under $300/mo HOA · 7% of rent

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Why this score? — see what drove the D- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• ARV discount +12.7/15.0
• Cash flow +7.3/30.0
• Appreciation +4.4/10.0
• Livability +3.7/5.0
• 1% rule +2.8/10.0
• Schools +2.7/10.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Rent growth +2.0/5.0
• DSCR +1.4/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Location! Location! Location! Wonderful Well maintained home in gated community in the heart of Galleria. The only house in this community has 4 car parking space ( 2 car garage + 2 additional private parking space in front of the unit). The only lot has extra side yard/greenbelt (common area). All new SS appliance. Newly painted kitchen and bathroom cabinet. Huge walk in closet! High ceilings, hardwood floor, crown molding, extra patio, etc. Come to see this beautiful home today!

Key facts

• Fenced patio
• Open room
• Renovated kitchen

Tags

• NEW ROOF
• RENOVATED KITCHEN
• FENCED PATIO
• HUGE WALK IN CLOSET
• OPEN ROOM

Property features AI

Finance

• Other: Thermostat listed as an energy-efficient feature
• HOA & community: Avalon Circle HOA; Gated community; HOA fee $300 monthly (covers common areas and grounds maintenance)

Exterior

• Parking: Attached 2-car garage; Additional parking; Garage with opener; Electric gate / controlled access
• Security: Owned security system; Controlled access; Smoke detectors
• Utilities: Public water; Public sewer
• Home design: Residential property; Built in 2000; Slab foundation; Composition roof
• Construction: Brick construction
• Exterior features: Deck; Patio; Corner lot in a subdivision

Interior

• Kitchen: Dishwasher; Electric oven; Gas cooktop; Disposal; Ice maker; Microwave; Refrigerator
• Bedrooms: Primary bedroom on second level (approx. 18x15); Bedroom on third level (approx. 19x17); Bedroom on second level (approx. 15x10); Bedroom on second level (approx. 13x11)
• Flooring: Carpet; Laminate; Tile; Wood
• Bathrooms: 3 full bathrooms; 1 half bathroom
• Heating & cooling: Central heating (gas); Central electric air conditioning
• Interior features: Granite counters; Window treatments / coverings; Ceiling fans; Programmable thermostat; Gas log fireplace (1)
• Laundry & utility: Washer and dryer included (washer hookup and gas dryer hookup); Utility room (located on second level)

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 4-bed/2.5-bath single-family listed at $548k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-739 ($-9k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $417k (23.8% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $426k (22.2% below list).
• Recommended offer: $417k (23.8% below list) — sets the bar for cash-flow.
• Cap rate 4.7% vs local median 3.2% in Houston — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 74/100 on livability (#184 in TX, #4,771 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: amenities A+, cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: crime F.
• Houston ISD (urban): math 27% / reading 35% proficiency, ranked #593 of 826 in TX (top 72%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases; 71% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Zoned schools: School At St George Place (math 34% / reading 46%, grade F, #1,514 of 4,322 statewide, top 36%, 782 students, 55% FRL); Tanglewood Middle (math 29% / reading 42%, grade F, #827 of 1,662 statewide, top 51%, 808 students, 62% FRL); Wisdom H S (math 17% / reading 16%, grade F, #1,497 of 1,632 statewide, top 92%, 2,260 students, 97% FRL) — zoned schools at 71% FRL track the district average.
• Market conditions: Rents soft (-1.8%/yr); 389 active listings in the ZIP; 23 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 16d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 29,883 units permitted in Harris County in 2024 (8,621 in 5+ unit buildings).
• At $4,261/mo this rent would consume 76% of the median local household income ($67k/yr) (locally 3533% of renters already pay >50% of income on rent) — very limited rent-growth headroom before tenants either downsize or default.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-1.2%/yr); year-one equity from $4k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $7k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Harris County population projected at +47% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• Only 2 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.
• 5 sale attempts since 20y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→25/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $417,399 (23.8% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
5. Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
6. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
7. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
8. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
9. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.78% ✗
• Cap rate: 4.67%
• Cash-on-cash: -5.78%
• DSCR: 0.74
• GRM: 10.7

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $619,609
• List price: $548,000
• Delta: -9.64%
• Verdict: FAIR
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
5426 Lampasas St	0.29mi	4/3.0	2,934 (+5%)	4mo	$875,000	$298	73
5329 Mcculloch Cir	0.53mi	3/2.5 (-1)	2,843 (+2%)	1mo	$616,900	$217	67
5322 Fayette St	0.52mi	4/3.5	2,786 (-0%)	5mo	$599,000	$215	67
5619 Val Verde St	0.11mi	3/3.5 (-1)	2,494 (-11%)	2mo	$640,000	$257	66
5619 Val Verde St Unit B	0.11mi	3/3.5 (-1)	2,494 (-11%)	3mo	$640,000	$257	65
5429 Fairdale Ln	0.33mi	3/3.0 (-1)	3,052 (+9%)	2mo	$700,000	$229	61
5325 Fayette St	0.51mi	3/3.5 (-1)	2,917 (+4%)	1mo	$725,000	$249	60
5655 Overbrook Ln	0.39mi	3/2.5 (-1)	2,517 (-10%)	3mo	$995,000	$395	58
5603 Locke Ln	0.37mi	3/3.0 (-1)	3,022 (+8%)	6mo	$947,500	$314	57
47 Milan Ests	0.66mi	3/2.5 (-1)	3,050 (+9%)	1mo	$750,000	$246	48
2126 Chimney Rock Rd	0.57mi	3/2.0 (-1)	2,481 (-11%)	1mo	$675,000	$272	47
5326 Windswept Ln	0.72mi	4/3.0	2,530 (-10%)	5mo	$574,900	$227	44

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-1.23% appreciation · 0.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -17.0%
• Equity multiple: 0.31×
• Total profit: $-106,284
• Equity at exit: $126,208

10-year hold

• IRR: -13.6%
• Equity multiple: -0.05×
• Total profit: $-161,569
• Equity at exit: $127,421

Cash invested: $153,440 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 77057

• Home prices YoY: -0.7%
• Rents YoY: -1.8%
• Active inventory: 389
• Price-to-rent: 10.7×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $4,261 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$2,874
• Tax from tax record: −$703 /mo · $8,439/yr
• Insurance: −$228
• HOA: −$300
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$895
• Net cashflow: $-739

Break-even live

Break-even rent $5,197

Max offer price $417,399

Occupancy floor —

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $137,000
• Closing costs: $16,440
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 23 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
5615 Winsome Ln Houston, TX	4.0	4.0	3150	$3,195	$1.01	44d	1	0.03mi
5640 Dolores St Houston, TX	3.0	4.0	2144	$3,999	$1.87	44d	1	0.05mi
5625 Dolores St Houston, TX	4.0	4.0	2935	$4,500	$1.53	44d	1	0.07mi
5733 Winsome Ln Houston, TX	3.0	3.5	2481	$4,000	$1.61	12d	1	0.13mi
5815 Fairdale Ln Houston, TX	3.0	4.0	2047	$2,800	$1.37	44d	1	0.26mi
5914 Val Verde St Houston, TX	3.0	4.0	2036	$3,900	$1.92	44d	1	0.30mi
2454 Bering Dr Houston, TX	3.0	2.5	2150	$2,800	$1.30	44d	1	0.45mi
5331 Beverly Hill St Houston, TX	1.0–4.0	1.0–2.5	1370	$2,099	$1.53	2d	84	0.55mi
3319 Bingham Manor Ln Houston, TX	3.0	4.0	2866	$2,900	$1.01	44d	1	0.65mi
2226 Nantucket Dr Unit A Houston, TX	3.0	2.5	2304	$2,600	$1.13	24d	1	0.82mi
2323 McCue Rd Houston, TX	3.0	1.0–3.0	1540	$4,850	$3.15	2d	16	1.07mi
2927 El Fenice Ln Houston, TX	3.0	3.0	2181	$3,200	$1.47	44d	1	1.11mi
2909 El Fenice Ln Unit 1538926P Houston, TX	3.0	2.5	2249	$7,906	$3.52	15d	1	1.11mi
2914 El Fenice Ln Unit 1538927P Houston, TX	3.0	2.5	2249	$7,906	$3.52	15d	1	1.13mi
2926 El Fenice Ln Unit 1514061P Houston, TX	3.0	2.5	2292	$6,039	$2.63	44d	1	1.13mi
2926 El Fenice Ln Unit 1514060P Houston, TX	3.0	2.5	2174	$6,226	$2.86	2d	1	1.13mi
2910 El Fenice Ln Unit 1538928P Houston, TX	3.0	2.5	2249	$6,426	$2.86	5d	1	1.14mi
2912 El Fenice Ln Unit 1538929P Houston, TX	3.0	2.5	2249	$7,906	$3.52	21d	1	1.14mi
2908 El Fenice Ln Unit 1538925P Houston, TX	3.0	2.5	2249	$7,906	$3.52	15d	1	1.14mi
1770 S Post Oak Ln Unit 525 Houston, TX	3.0	2.0	2271	$7,593	$3.34	3d	1	1.24mi
1770 S Post Oak Ln Unit 1803 Houston, TX	3.0	2.0	2271	$7,625	$3.36	11d	1	1.24mi
1616 Post Oak Blvd Unit 3187 Houston, TX	3.0	2.0	2840	$12,202	$4.30	3d	1	1.46mi
1616 Post Oak Blvd Unit 1649 Houston, TX	3.0	2.0	2840	$12,234	$4.31	11d	1	1.48mi

HOA detail

• Monthly dues: $300 · $3,600/yr
• Likely covers: security

Listing history 25 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $548,000 Active 2 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   pricedays on marketlisting id $548,000 Active 1 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $559,900 Active 77 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   days on market $559,900 Active 76 DOM
5. 2026-06-13
   days on market $559,900 Active 74 DOM
6. 2026-06-10
   days on market $559,900 Active 70 DOM
7. 2026-06-08
   days on market $559,900 Active 69 DOM
8. 2026-06-07
   days on market $559,900 Active 68 DOM
9. 2026-06-04
   days on market $559,900 Active 65 DOM
10. 2026-06-01
    days on market $559,900 Active 62 DOM
11. 2026-05-31
    days on market $559,900 Active 61 DOM
12. 2026-03-31
    listed $559,900 Active 1005-char remark
13. 2015-05-27
    soldstatus
14. 2015-05-22
    soldstatus Sold 486-char remark

    Show marketing remark (486 chars)

    Location! Location! Location! Wonderful Well maintained home in gated community in the heart of Galleria. The only house in this community has 4 car parking space ( 2 car garage + 2 additional private parking space in front of the unit). The only lot has extra side yard/greenbelt (common area). All new SS appliance. Newly painted kitchen and bathroom cabinet. Huge walk in closet! High ceilings, hardwood floor, crown molding, extra patio, etc. Come to see this beautiful home today!

15. 2015-05-14
    status Pending 486-char remark

    Show marketing remark (486 chars)

    Location! Location! Location! Wonderful Well maintained home in gated community in the heart of Galleria. The only house in this community has 4 car parking space ( 2 car garage + 2 additional private parking space in front of the unit). The only lot has extra side yard/greenbelt (common area). All new SS appliance. Newly painted kitchen and bathroom cabinet. Huge walk in closet! High ceilings, hardwood floor, crown molding, extra patio, etc. Come to see this beautiful home today!

16. 2015-04-16
    status Pending, Continue to Show 486-char remark

    Show marketing remark (486 chars)

    Location! Location! Location! Wonderful Well maintained home in gated community in the heart of Galleria. The only house in this community has 4 car parking space ( 2 car garage + 2 additional private parking space in front of the unit). The only lot has extra side yard/greenbelt (common area). All new SS appliance. Newly painted kitchen and bathroom cabinet. Huge walk in closet! High ceilings, hardwood floor, crown molding, extra patio, etc. Come to see this beautiful home today!

17. 2015-04-09
    status Option Pending 486-char remark

    Show marketing remark (486 chars)

    Location! Location! Location! Wonderful Well maintained home in gated community in the heart of Galleria. The only house in this community has 4 car parking space ( 2 car garage + 2 additional private parking space in front of the unit). The only lot has extra side yard/greenbelt (common area). All new SS appliance. Newly painted kitchen and bathroom cabinet. Huge walk in closet! High ceilings, hardwood floor, crown molding, extra patio, etc. Come to see this beautiful home today!

18. 2015-04-02
    listed $419,990 Active 486-char remark

    Show marketing remark (486 chars)

    Location! Location! Location! Wonderful Well maintained home in gated community in the heart of Galleria. The only house in this community has 4 car parking space ( 2 car garage + 2 additional private parking space in front of the unit). The only lot has extra side yard/greenbelt (common area). All new SS appliance. Newly painted kitchen and bathroom cabinet. Huge walk in closet! High ceilings, hardwood floor, crown molding, extra patio, etc. Come to see this beautiful home today!

19. 2011-06-17
    historical
20. 2011-05-26
    listed $339,900
21. 2006-10-02
    soldstatus
22. 2006-10-02
    soldstatus
23. 2006-07-05
    historical
24. 2006-07-03
    listed $349,900
25. 2001-01-01
    soldstatus

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast TX · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $8,439 · $703/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $10,028 · $836/mo
• Expected delta: +$1,589/yr (+$132/mo · 18.8%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 4/10 Moderate FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 22% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 9/10 Extreme 7 d/yr ≥109°F today · 25 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 9/10 Extreme 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 2 unhealthy d/yr today · 2 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $51,130
• − Mortgage interest: −$30,697
• − Property taxes: −$8,439
• − Insurance: −$2,740
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$4,090
• − Management: −$4,090
• − HOA: −$3,600
• − Depreciation: −$15,942
• Taxable loss: −$18,468
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$4,432
• After-tax cash flow: $-4,439/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Houston ISD
• NCES district ID: 4823640
• Math proficiency: 27% ▼ -18.00%
• Reading proficiency: 35% ▼ -6.00%
• Median HH income: $46,054
• Composite: 26.63/100
• National rank: #7173
• State rank: #593 of 826 in TX

Livability — Houston

• Score: 74/100
• State rank: #184
• US rank: #4771

Category grades

Amenities A+ Commute A Cost of living A+ Crime F Employment C Housing A+ Health & safety A- User ratings F

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Houston, TX
• County: Harris County · 4,702,590 people
• City population: 3,226,434
• Metro: Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land, TX
• Population (ZIP): 46,569
• Household income: $66,971
• Rent vs Own: 68.2% rent · 31.8% own
• Severe rent burden: 3533.0

Population outlook (Harris County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 5,571,493 people
• By 2030: 6,089,821 · +9.3%
• By 2040: 7,142,806 · +28.2%
• By 2050: 8,185,864 · +46.9%
• By 2075: 10,574,329 · +89.8%
• By 2100: 12,109,958 · +117.4%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.69)
• Race & ethnicity: Hispanic / Latino 38% White 37% Two or more races 22% Black 12% Asian 10% Native American 1%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 13% Cuban 1%
• Common ancestry: Italian 3% Lithuanian 2% Slovak 1%
• Foreign-born: 38% · Canada, China, Jamaica
• Languages at home: 50% English-only · Spanish 33% Other Indo-European 6% Other Asian/Pacific 3%

Political lean MEDSL · Harris

• 2024 margin: Lean D (+5.5) · D 52.0% · R 46.4% · Other 1.6%
• 2008→2024 swing: +3.9pp toward D · 2008: 1.6pp · 2024: 5.5pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+5.5 2020: D+13.3 2016: D+12.4 2012: D+0.1 2008: D+1.6

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -1.23%
• Current HPI: 167.8863
• Rent YoY: ▼ -1.83%
• Metro: Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land, TX
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Price history

+56.6% since first listed

16 events — show timeline

• 2026-06-16 Listing Removed — HARMLS
• 2026-06-16 Listed $548,000 HARMLS
• 2026-03-31 Listed $559,900 HARMLS
• 2015-05-27 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records
• 2015-05-22 Sold (MLS) — HARMLS
• 2015-05-14 Pending — HARMLS
• 2015-04-16 Pending — HARMLS
• 2015-04-09 Pending — HARMLS
• 2015-04-02 Listed $419,990 HARMLS
• 2011-06-17 Listing Removed — HARMLS
• 2011-05-26 Listed $339,900 HARMLS
• 2006-10-02 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records
• 2006-10-02 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records
• 2006-07-05 Listing Removed — HARMLS
• 2006-07-03 Listed $349,900 HARMLS
• 2001-01-01 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records

Property tax history

+0.2%/yr

Latest (2025): $8,439 · -5.8% YoY. Source: county tax records.