8686 Dutch Elm Ct · Roscoe, IL 61073

$85,500

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,680 sqft · Manufactured · 41 Days on market

Built 1996 Average condition Est $89k · at est.

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Why this score? — see what drove the B grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +30.0/30.0
• 1% rule +10.0/10.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• ARV discount +9.3/15.0
• Livability +4.1/5.0
• Condition / age +2.8/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Schools +1.8/10.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

Motivated Seller! Enjoy comfort and convenience in this charming home located in a welcoming 55+ community. Offering 3 bedrooms and 2 full bathrooms, plus a flexible den or office space, this home provides room to relax and entertain. Outside is a covered deck, perfect for enjoying peaceful mornings or hosting friends. The 2.5 car garage offers excellent storage and workspace. A wonderful place to call home! Buyer must be park approved and at least one owner must be 55 or over. Current Lot Rent $830.75 per month. Owner is responsible for water, trash and sewer paid through the park.

Key facts

• Covered deck
• 2 garage spots
• Built 1996

Tags

• COVERED DECK
• FLEXIBLE DEN OR OFFICE SPACE

Property features AI

Finance

• Other: Annual tax information available

Exterior

• Parking: Detached garage; Approximately 2.5 garage spaces
• Utilities: Public water service; Public sewer service
• Home design: Mobile home (residential); House subtype
• Exterior features: Shingle roof; Public water; Public sewer

Interior

• Kitchen: Gas cooktop; Dishwasher; Disposal; Microwave; Refrigerator
• Bathrooms: Two full bathrooms (both on the main level)
• Heating & cooling: Forced air heating; Central air conditioning
• Interior features: Walk-in closet(s); Therapeutic whirlpool
• Laundry & utility: Washer; Dryer; Gas water heater

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath manufactured listed at $86k. Condition is rated average.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $773 ($9k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $86k).
• Recommended offer: $83k (3.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 17.1% vs local median 2.8% in Roscoe — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 82/100 on livability (#61 in IL, #1,071 nationally) — a professional / high-income tenant draw. Strengths: crime A+, employment A+, cost of living A+; Watch: amenities F, commute F.
• Harlem UD 122 (suburban): math 17% / reading 23% proficiency, ranked #418 of 620 in IL (top 67%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover.
• Zoned schools: Ralston Elem School (math 27% / reading 32%, grade F, #658 of 2,056 statewide, top 35%, 284 students, 0% FRL); Harlem High School (math 18% / reading 23%, grade F, #350 of 693 statewide, top 51%, 1,875 students, 0% FRL) — zoned schools average 0% FRL vs 45% district-wide (45 pts lower); this property's tenant base skews higher-income than the district average.
• Market conditions: 115 active listings in the ZIP; 2 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; 285 units permitted in Winnebago County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $591 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $3k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Winnebago County population projected at -20% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $24k cash investment doubles in ~4 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 41 days — a 3% lower offer ($83k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 11 sale attempts since 5y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.

Recommended offer $82,935 (3.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 41 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 3% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
3. Schools are B-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
4. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
5. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
6. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 2.02% ✓
• Cap rate: 17.15%
• Cash-on-cash: 38.76%
• DSCR: 2.72
• GRM: 4.1

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $89,040
• Comps found: 12

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
5456 White Pine Ln	0.06mi	3/2.0	1,680 (0%)	7mo	$63,000	$38	91
8535 Springwood Ct	0.16mi	3/2.0	1,600 (-5%)	3mo	$90,000	$56	82
5477 White Pine Ln	0.03mi	3/2.0	1,568 (-7%)	10mo	$87,500	$56	79
5371 Heartwood Ln	0.22mi	3/2.0	1,792 (+7%)	2mo	$95,000	$53	77
5476 Ebonywood Ln	0.10mi	3/2.0	1,456 (-13%)	1mo	$66,500	$46	72
8415 Tamarack Dr	0.28mi	3/2.0	1,792 (+7%)	10mo	$84,900	$47	68
8581 Springwood Ct	0.12mi	3/2.0	1,456 (-13%)	6mo	$77,400	$53	67
5411 Autumnash Ln	0.23mi	3/2.0	1,456 (-13%)	4mo	$87,000	$60	64
5492 Heartwood Ln	0.14mi	3/2.0	1,456 (-13%)	9mo	$50,000	$34	63
5615 Cypress Ln	0.27mi	3/2.5	1,848 (+10%)	8mo	$105,000	$57	62
8410 Hickory Tree Dr	0.36mi	3/2.0	1,848 (+10%)	10mo	$95,000	$51	58
5332 Cypress Ln	0.28mi	3/2.5	1,926 (+15%)	8mo	$100,000	$52	53

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 34.9%
• Equity multiple: 2.48×
• Total profit: $35,418
• Equity at exit: $12,748

10-year hold

• IRR: 41.7%
• Equity multiple: 4.94×
• Total profit: $94,361
• Equity at exit: $7,392

Cash invested: $23,940 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 43 Moderately Tenant-Leaning
• State Illinois: 43 Moderately Tenant-Leaning · D+7
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

Chicago RTLO is among the strongest tenant ordinances in the Midwest; downstate is more landlord-friendly.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 61073

• Home prices YoY: -34.5%
• Active inventory: 115
• Price-to-rent: 4.1×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,727 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$448
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$107 /mo · $1,282/yr
• Insurance: −$36
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$363
• Net cashflow: $773

Break-even live

Break-even rent $748

Max offer price $85,500

Occupancy floor 50%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $21,375
• Closing costs: $2,565
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 2 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
5515 Tall Pines Pkwy Unit 1 Roscoe, IL	2.0	1.0	1100	$1,450	$1.32	13d	1	0.85mi
6410 Harvest Ln Machesney Park, IL	2.0–3.0	2.0	1535	$2,000	$1.30	13d	2	1.17mi

Listing history 36 events

1. 2026-06-01
   statusdays on market $85,500 Pending 41 DOM
2. 2026-05-31
   days on market $85,500 Active 40 DOM
3. 2026-05-30
   days on market $85,500 Active 39 DOM
4. 2026-04-21
   listed $85,500 Active
5. 2026-04-09
   historical
6. 2026-03-31
   price $95,500
7. 2025-07-25
   soldstatus $90,000 Closed
8. 2025-07-25
   soldstatus $90,000 Closed
9. 2025-07-07
   status Pending
10. 2025-07-07
    status Pending
11. 2025-06-24
    status Active
12. 2025-06-24
    status Active
13. 2025-06-09
    status Pending
14. 2025-06-09
    status Pending
15. 2025-06-02
    listed $94,900 Active
16. 2025-06-02
    listed $94,900 Active
17. 2023-06-01
    soldstatus $82,500 Closed
18. 2023-04-18
    status Pending
19. 2023-04-14
    price $80,000
20. 2023-04-03
    listed $85,000 Active
21. 2022-07-19
    soldstatus $76,900 Closed
22. 2022-07-19
    soldstatus $76,900
23. 2022-06-07
    status Pending
24. 2022-06-01
    price $76,900
25. 2022-05-27
    status Active
26. 2022-05-15
    status Pending
27. 2022-05-02
    price $79,900
28. 2022-04-08
    listed $85,000 Active
29. 2022-04-08
    listed $76,900
30. 2021-07-23
    soldstatus $71,000 Closed
31. 2021-07-23
    soldstatus $71,000
32. 2021-07-14
    status Pending
33. 2021-06-28
    status Pending
34. 2021-06-22
    price $71,000
35. 2021-06-11
    listed $79,900 New
36. 2021-06-11
    listed $71,000

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 3/10 Moderate 7 d/yr ≥101°F today · 15 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 2/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 3/10 Moderate 2 unhealthy d/yr today · 3 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $20,720
• − Mortgage interest: −$4,789
• − Property taxes: −$1,282
• − Insurance: −$428
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,658
• − Management: −$1,658
• − Depreciation: −$2,487
• Taxable income: $8,419
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$2,020
• After-tax cash flow: $7,258/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Condition & rehab AI · 12 photos

Average 55/100 Cosmetic rehab

This home is in average condition with cosmetic updates needed to enhance its curb appeal and interior aesthetics.

Repairs flagged

• Minor exterior siding — Light wear
• Minor interior paint — Faded

Value-add opportunities

• Both paint interior walls — Enhances curb appeal and interior aesthetics
• Both replace carpet — Improves comfort and reduces maintenance
• Both update kitchen cabinetry — Modernizes the space and adds value

Renovation cost estimate screening

Repair item	Severity	Est. cost
exterior siding · Light wear	Minor	$500–3,000
interior paint · Faded	Minor	$500–3,000
Total estimated repair cost · 2 items		$1,000–6,000

Value-add ROI direction

• Both paint interior walls — Enhances curb appeal and interior aesthetics ↑
• Both replace carpet — Improves comfort and reduces maintenance ↑
• Both update kitchen cabinetry — Modernizes the space and adds value ↑

ⓘ Cost ranges are severity-bucket heuristics (US national rule-of-thumb). Get contractor quotes + a written scope before underwriting a rehab budget.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Harlem UD 122
• NCES district ID: 1718240
• Math proficiency: 17% ▼ -8.00%
• Reading proficiency: 23% ▼ -7.00%
• Median HH income: $51,228
• Composite: 18.01/100
• National rank: #8982
• State rank: #418 of 620 in IL

Livability — Roscoe

• Score: 82/100
• State rank: #61
• US rank: #1071

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime A+ Employment A+ Housing A+ Health & safety A+ User ratings A+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Roscoe, IL
• City population: 20,008
• Population (ZIP): 20,008

Population outlook (Winnebago County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 271,080 people
• By 2030: 260,684 · -3.8%
• By 2040: 238,405 · -12.1%
• By 2050: 216,129 · -20.3%
• By 2075: 172,882 · -36.2%
• By 2100: 135,336 · -50.1%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (86%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 86% Hispanic / Latino 7% Two or more races 6% Black 3% Asian 2%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 5%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 6% Portuguese 3% Lithuanian 2%
• Foreign-born: 4% · Canada, China
• Languages at home: 94% English-only · Spanish 4% Other Indo-European 1% Russian/Polish/Slavic 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Winnebago

• 2024 margin: Toss-up / Even · D 49.5% · R 49.0% · Other 1.5%
• 2008→2024 swing: -12.2pp toward R · 2008: 12.8pp · 2024: 0.6pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+0.6 2020: D+2.5 2016: R+1.2 2012: D+5.7 2008: D+12.8

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -131.22%
• Current HPI: 248.8712
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 1.59%
• F500 in state: 60

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in IL)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Insurance	4	$201B
▸Consumer Goods	4	$87B
▸Industrial Machinery	3	$64B
▸Healthcare	2	$55B
▸Retail / Pharmacy	1	$148B
▸Agriculture / Food	1	$86B

Price history

+20.4% since first listed

33 events — show timeline

• 2026-04-21 Listed $85,500 NWIAR
• 2026-04-09 Listing Removed — MRED as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-03-31 Price Changed $95,500 NWIAR
• 2025-07-25 Sold (MLS) $90,000 NWIAR
• 2025-07-25 Sold (MLS) $90,000 MRED as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2025-07-07 Pending — NWIAR
• 2025-07-07 Pending — MRED as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2025-06-24 Relisted — MRED as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2025-06-24 Relisted — NWIAR
• 2025-06-09 Pending — NWIAR
• 2025-06-09 Pending — MRED as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2025-06-02 Listed $94,900 NWIAR
• 2025-06-02 Listed $94,900 MRED as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2023-06-01 Sold (MLS) $82,500 NWIAR
• 2023-04-18 Pending — NWIAR
• 2023-04-14 Price Changed $80,000 NWIAR
• 2023-04-03 Listed $85,000 NWIAR
• 2022-07-19 Sold (MLS) $76,900 NWIAR
• 2022-07-19 Sold (MLS) $76,900 MRED as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2022-06-07 Pending — MRED as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2022-06-01 Price Changed $76,900 MRED as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2022-05-27 Relisted — MRED as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2022-05-15 Pending — MRED as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2022-05-02 Price Changed $79,900 MRED as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2022-04-08 Listed $76,900 NWIAR
• 2022-04-08 Listed $85,000 MRED as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2021-07-23 Sold (MLS) $71,000 NWIAR
• 2021-07-23 Sold (MLS) $71,000 MRED as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2021-07-14 Pending — MRED as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2021-06-28 Pending — MRED as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2021-06-22 Price Changed $71,000 MRED as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2021-06-11 Listed $79,900 MRED as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2021-06-11 Listed $71,000 NWIAR