1295 S Cawston Ave #416 · Hemet, CA 92545

$129,000

1 bd · 1.0 ba · 600 sqft · Manufactured · 4 Days on market

Built 1994 2,178 sqft lot Est $125k · at est. $292/mo HOA · 19% of rent

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Why this score? — see what drove the C- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +20.0/30.0
• 1% rule +6.9/10.0
• DSCR +6.3/10.0
• ARV discount +6.0/15.0
• Rent growth +3.4/5.0
• Livability +2.6/5.0
• Schools +2.5/10.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

Welcome home to this charming and exquisitely maintained property offering comfort, convenience, and easy living. A spacious awning over the front porch is perfect for happy hours or watching the sunrises with breakfast and coffee, while the covered parking area and extended shed provide additional functionality and storage. The exterior features low-maintenance landscaping accented by brickwork, like new HVAC system, all enclosed with classic white lattice fencing for added charm and privacy. Step inside to a light-filled interior with luxury wood flooring throughout. This home checks all the boxes. The expansive California room offers versatile living space—perfect for entertaining,

Key facts

• 2,178 sq ft lot
• Community pool
• Built 1994

Property features AI

Finance

• Other: Planned development; Senior community
• HOA & community: Part of Mountain Shadows HOA; Monthly association fee; Association amenities: spa, pool, clubhouse, gym/exercise room, banquet facilities, billiard room, meeting/club/card rooms, outdoor cooking and barbecue, multipurpose/recreational room

Exterior

• Parking: Carport
• Security: Gated community with automatic gate
• Utilities: Public sewer; Public/district water; Sewer connected; Water connected; Electricity available; Cable available
• Home design: Manufactured house; Single-story (one level); Front entry
• Construction: Tile roof; No ADU
• Exterior features: Covered front porch; Porch; Covered patio; Shed; Community pool; Pool maintained by association; Level, landscaped yard with backyard; Close to clubhouse; Has view

Interior

• Kitchen: Refrigerator; Formica counters
• Bedrooms: Primary bedroom (all bedrooms on one level); Bonus room
• Bathrooms: 1 full bathroom (main level)
• Heating & cooling: Central cooling
• Interior features: Formica counters; Gated community with automatic gate; Community spa
• Laundry & utility: In-unit laundry with stackable washer/dryer

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 1-bed/1.0-bath manufactured listed at $129k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $159 ($2k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $129k).
• Cap rate 7.8% vs local median 4.9% in Hemet — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 51/100 on livability (#1,056 in CA) — a working-class tenant base; expect higher turnover. Strengths: housing A+; Watch: crime D+, schools F, amenities F.
• Hemet Unified (suburban): math 19% / reading 41% proficiency, ranked #360 of 517 in CA (top 70%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases; 66% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Market conditions: Rents rising (+3.7%/yr); 290 active listings in the ZIP; 9,195 units permitted in Riverside County in 2024 (1,512 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $892 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $4k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Riverside County population projected at +22% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• Only 4 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: moderate flood risk; major wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 6→17/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $129,000

Questions for the listing agent

1. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
2. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
3. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
4. Crime grade is D in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
5. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
6. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
7. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.19% ✓
• Cap rate: 7.77%
• Cash-on-cash: 5.28%
• DSCR: 1.23
• GRM: 7.0

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $124,800
• Comps found: 12

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
1295 S Cawston Ave #340	0.00mi	1/1.0	600 (0%)	6mo	$120,000	$200	95
1295 S Cawston #263	0.08mi	1/1.0	600 (0%)	2mo	$128,000	$213	95
1295 S Cawston #69	0.10mi	1/1.0	600 (0%)	6mo	$127,000	$212	91
1295 S Cawston Ave #488	0.00mi	1/1.0	600 (0%)	19mo	$146,000	$243	84
1295 S Cawston Ave #54	0.03mi	1/1.0	600 (0%)	19mo	$125,000	$208	83
1295 S Cawston #102	0.05mi	1/1.0	650 (+8%)	2mo	$136,000	$209	82
1295 S Cawston Ave #490	0.00mi	2/1.0 (+1)	650 (+8%)	1mo	$94,500	$145	80
1295 S Cawston Ave #97	0.08mi	1/1.0	600 (0%)	19mo	$115,000	$192	80
1295 S Cawston Ave #480	0.00mi	2/1.0 (+1)	576 (-4%)	15mo	$138,000	$240	76
1295 S Cawston Ave #431	0.00mi	1/1.5	633 (+6%)	18mo	$87,000	$137	74
1295 S Cawston Ave #407	0.00mi	1/1.0	650 (+8%)	15mo	$130,000	$200	74
1295 S Cawston Ave #323	0.00mi	1/1.0	680 (+13%)	12mo	$138,000	$203	68

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.74% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -7.1%
• Equity multiple: 0.74×
• Total profit: $-9,516
• Equity at exit: $19,234

10-year hold

• IRR: 3.7%
• Equity multiple: 1.28×
• Total profit: $10,008
• Equity at exit: $11,154

Cash invested: $36,120 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 18 Strongly Tenant-Friendly
• State California: 18 Strongly Tenant-Friendly · D+13
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

AB1482 statewide rent cap (10% + CPI). Cities (SF/LA/Berkeley) layer stricter rules. Just-cause statewide.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 92545

• Home prices YoY: -24.6%
• Rents YoY: 3.7%
• Active inventory: 290
• Price-to-rent: 7.0×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,529 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$676
• Tax from tax record: −$26 /mo · $318/yr
• Insurance: −$54
• HOA: −$292
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$321
• Net cashflow: $159

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,328

Max offer price $129,000

Occupancy floor 85%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $32,250
• Closing costs: $3,870
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

HOA detail

• Monthly dues: $292 · $3,504/yr
• Likely covers: landscaping

Listing history 9 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $129,000 Active 4 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $129,000 Active 3 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $129,000 Active 2 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   remarks 693-char remark
5. 2026-06-13
   statusdays on market $129,000 Active 1 DOM
6. 2026-06-09
   days on market $129,000 Coming Soon 3 DOM
7. 2026-06-08
   days on market $129,000 Coming Soon 2 DOM
8. 2026-06-07
   remarks 104-char remark
9. 2026-06-07
   listed $129,000 Coming Soon 1 DOM

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast CA · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $318 · $26/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $980 · $82/mo
• Expected delta: +$662/yr (+$55/mo · 208.3%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 5/10 Major FEMA zone X (shaded) · 57% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 6/10 Major
• 🌡 Heat 7/10 Severe 6 d/yr ≥104°F today · 17 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 1/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 6/10 Major 9 unhealthy d/yr today · 11 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $18,344
• − Mortgage interest: −$7,226
• − Property taxes: −$318
• − Insurance: −$645
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,468
• − Management: −$1,468
• − HOA: −$3,504
• − Depreciation: −$3,753
• Taxable loss: −$37
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$9
• After-tax cash flow: $1,916/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Hemet Unified
• NCES district ID: 0616920
• Math proficiency: 19% ▼ -3.00%
• Reading proficiency: 41% ▲ 4.00%
• Median HH income: $39,962
• Composite: 25.16/100
• National rank: #7517
• State rank: #360 of 517 in CA

Livability — Hemet

• Score: 51/100
• State rank: #1056
• US rank: #25208

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living F Crime D+ Employment F Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings F

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Hemet, CA
• County: Riverside County · 2,287,001 people
• City population: 137,670
• Metro: Riverside-San Bernardino-Ontario, CA
• Population (ZIP): 45,982
• Household income: $63,770
• Rent vs Own: 28.8% rent · 71.2% own
• Severe rent burden: 1813.0

Population outlook (Riverside County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 2,664,475 people
• By 2030: 2,802,692 · +5.2%
• By 2040: 3,050,904 · +14.5%
• By 2050: 3,256,783 · +22.2%
• By 2075: 3,655,058 · +37.2%
• By 2100: 3,766,594 · +41.4%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.65)
• Race & ethnicity: Hispanic / Latino 46% White 35% Two or more races 17% Black 8% Asian 5% Native American 1%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 40%
• Common ancestry: Slovak 2% Lithuanian 2% Portuguese 1%
• Foreign-born: 19% · Canada, Vietnam, Jamaica
• Languages at home: 69% English-only · Spanish 27% Tagalog/Filipino 1% Other Indo-European 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Riverside

• 2024 margin: Toss-up / Even · D 48.0% · R 49.3% · Other 2.6%
• 2008→2024 swing: -3.6pp toward R · 2008: 2.3pp · 2024: -1.3pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+1.3 2020: D+8.0 2016: D+4.3 2012: R+0.4 2008: D+2.3

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -116.25%
• Current HPI: 356.9414
• Rent YoY: ▲ 3.74%
• Metro: Riverside-San Bernardino-Ontario, CA
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.21%
• F500 in state: 116

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in CA)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Technology	27	$1,492B
▸Financial Services	3	$174B
▸Retail	3	$44B
▸Insurance	3	$26B
▸Media / Entertainment	2	$115B
▸Pharmaceuticals / Biotech	2	$62B

Price history

1 event — show timeline

• 2026-06-07 Coming Soon $129,000 CRMLS

Property tax history

+0.9%/yr

Latest (2014): $318 · -2.6% YoY. Source: county tax records.