2517 Spencer Ave · Overland, MO 63114

$50,000

2 bd · 1.0 ba · 722 sqft · SingleFamily public records

Built 1920 10,249 sqft lot

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Why this score? — see what drove the B- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +30.0/30.0
• 1% rule +10.0/10.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Livability +3.1/5.0
• Rent growth +3.0/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Schools +1.7/10.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Key facts

• 0.24 acre lot
• Built 1920

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $50k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $509 ($6k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($1k rent vs $50k).
• Cap rate 18.5% vs local median 6.2% in Overland — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 61/100 on livability (#436 in MO) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: health & safety C-, crime F, amenities F.
• Ritenour (suburban): math 13% / reading 27% proficiency, ranked #304 of 324 in MO (top 94%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover; 66% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Zoned schools: Marion Elem. (math 18% / reading 30%, grade F, #907 of 1,115 statewide, top 81%, 475 students, 99% FRL); Ritenour Sr. High (math 9% / reading 36%, grade F, #455 of 521 statewide, top 88%, 1,873 students, 100% FRL) — zoned schools average 100% FRL vs 66% district-wide (34 pts higher); higher-poverty schools than district average — tighter screening recommended.
• Market conditions: Rents rising (+2.0%/yr); 118 active listings in the ZIP; 7 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 25d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 43% of comp listings sitting > 30 days — soft ceiling on asking rent; 920 units permitted in St. Louis County in 2024 (250 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $346 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $2k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 2.0% rent growth), your $14k cash investment doubles in ~3 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• Only 0 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: built in 1920 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.

Recommended offer $50,000

Questions for the listing agent

1. Built in 1920 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
2. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
3. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
4. Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
5. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
6. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
7. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 2.26% ✓
• Cap rate: 18.52%
• Cash-on-cash: 43.65%
• DSCR: 2.94
• GRM: 3.7

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $130,682
• Comps found: 12

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
2339 Dawes Pl	0.37mi	1/1.0 (-1)	728 (+1%)	0mo	$139,900	$192	76
2321 Dawes Pl	0.41mi	2/1.0	720 (-0%)	5mo	$99,000	$138	76
2324 Huntington Ave	0.40mi	2/2.0	720 (-0%)	2mo	$130,000	$181	75
3106 Quiet Ln	0.58mi	2/1.0	724 (+0%)	3mo	$148,000	$204	70
9440 Baltimore Ave	0.56mi	2/2.0	720 (-0%)	4mo	$125,000	$174	66
2242 Huntington Ave	0.51mi	1/1.0 (-1)	702 (-3%)	2mo	$125,000	$178	65
2301 Burns Ave	0.51mi	2/1.0	672 (-7%)	3mo	$165,000	$246	62
9515 Cote Brilliante Ave	0.69mi	2/1.0	728 (+1%)	8mo	$110,000	$151	60
3219 Royalton Ave	0.75mi	2/1.0	792 (+10%)	3mo	$102,500	$129	47
2420 E Milton Ave Unit F	0.72mi	2/1.0	792 (+10%)	5mo	$169,900	$215	46
2220 Dawes Pl	0.55mi	2/1.0	816 (+13%)	9mo	$145,000	$178	45
9750 Flora Ave	0.66mi	2/2.0	816 (+13%)	3mo	$199,900	$245	41

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 2.04% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 39.4%
• Equity multiple: 2.66×
• Total profit: $23,295
• Equity at exit: $7,455

10-year hold

• IRR: 45.4%
• Equity multiple: 5.13×
• Total profit: $57,869
• Equity at exit: $4,323

Cash invested: $14,000 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 81 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Missouri: 81 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+10
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

Generally landlord-friendly; St Louis has some habitability requirements.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 63114

• Rents YoY: 2.0%
• Active inventory: 118
• Price-to-rent: 3.7×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,128 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$262
• Tax from tax record: −$99 /mo · $1,183/yr
• Insurance: −$21
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$237
• Net cashflow: $509

Break-even live

Break-even rent $483

Max offer price $50,000

Occupancy floor 50%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $538	-5% $523	+0% $509	+5% $495	+10% $481
Rent	-10% $420	-5% $465	+0% $509	+5% $554	+10% $598
Rate	-1.0pp $534	-0.5pp $522	base $509	+0.5pp $496	+1.0pp $483

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $12,500
• Closing costs: $1,500
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 7 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
2323 Woodson Rd Apt I Overland, MO	1.0	1.0	650	$875	$1.35	8d	1	0.54mi
2323 Woodson Rd Apt J Overland, MO	1.0	1.0	605	$875	$1.45	44d	1	0.54mi
2201 Gaebler Ave Unit A Overland, MO	2.0	1.0	710	$1,250	$1.76	24d	1	0.71mi
3208 Dix Ave Saint Louis, MO	2.0	1.0	656	$1,235	$1.88	11d	1	0.73mi
10214 Saint Anthony Ln Saint Ann, MO	2.0	1.0	734	$1,200	$1.63	44d	1	1.24mi
8700 Crocus Ln Saint Louis, MO	1.0	1.0	700	$950	$1.36	8d	2	1.40mi
3710 Geraldine Ave Apt 3 St Ann, MO	1.0	1.0	400	$675	$1.69	44d	1	1.41mi

Listing history 2 events

1. 2026-05-18
   listed $50,000
2. 2026-05-18
   historical

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast MO · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $1,183 · $99/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $1,183 · $99/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 4/10 Moderate 7 d/yr ≥106°F today · 20 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 2/10 Low 100% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 3 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $13,533
• − Mortgage interest: −$2,801
• − Property taxes: −$1,183
• − Insurance: −$250
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,083
• − Management: −$1,083
• − Depreciation: −$1,455
• Taxable income: $5,679
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$1,363
• After-tax cash flow: $4,748/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Ritenour
• NCES district ID: 2926640
• Math proficiency: 13% ▼ -14.00%
• Reading proficiency: 27% ▼ -7.00%
• Median HH income: $41,410
• Composite: 17.04/100
• National rank: #9125
• State rank: #304 of 324 in MO

Livability — Overland

• Score: 61/100
• State rank: #436
• US rank: #17870

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime F Employment D- Housing A+ Health & safety C- User ratings D

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Overland, MO
• County: Saint Louis County · 888,823 people
• City population: 33,969
• Metro: St. Louis, MO-IL
• Population (ZIP): 33,969
• Household income: $55,870
• Rent vs Own: 41.8% rent · 58.2% own
• Severe rent burden: 1595.0

Population outlook (St. Louis County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 1,025,227 people
• By 2030: 1,028,023 · +0.3%
• By 2040: 1,020,940 · -0.4%
• By 2050: 1,007,280 · -1.8%
• By 2075: 987,277 · -3.7%
• By 2100: 921,984 · -10.1%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.64)
• Race & ethnicity: White 50% Black 30% Hispanic / Latino 11% Two or more races 6% Asian 2%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 7%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 3% Italian 2% Romanian 1%
• Foreign-born: 9% · Canada, Vietnam
• Languages at home: 84% English-only · Spanish 10% French/Haitian/Cajun 2% Tagalog/Filipino 1%

Political lean MEDSL · St. Louis

• 2024 margin: Strong D (+23.4) · D 60.8% · R 37.4% · Other 1.7%
• 2008→2024 swing: +3.5pp toward D · 2008: 19.9pp · 2024: 23.4pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+23.4 2020: D+24.0 2016: D+16.2 2012: D+13.7 2008: D+19.9

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -276.62%
• Current HPI: 223.9305
• Rent YoY: ▲ 2.04%
• Metro: St. Louis, MO-IL
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 1.84%
• F500 in state: 20

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in MO)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Healthcare	1	$163B
▸Insurance	1	$21B
▸Industrial Technology	1	$17B
▸Retail	1	$16B
▸Industrial Distribution	1	$10B
▸Utilities	1	$9B

Price history

2 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-18 Delisted — MARIS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-05-18 Listed $50,000 MARIS as Distributed by MLS Grid

Property tax history

+3.3%/yr

Latest (2022): $1,183 · +0.0% YoY. Source: county tax records.