20122 Green Mallard St · Houston, TX 77532

$150,001

3 bd · 2.5 ba · 1,189 sqft · SingleFamily · 35 Days on market

Built 2026 Good condition $125/mo HOA · 6% of rent ↓ 10% since listing

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Why this score? — see what drove the C grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +21.0/30.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• DSCR +6.7/10.0
• 1% rule +6.4/10.0
• Condition / age +4.0/5.0
• Livability +3.7/5.0
• Schools +3.5/10.0
• Rent growth +2.9/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

The Baja Floor Plan - This two-story home features a classic layout ideal for young families and working professionals. The living area is located on the primary floor and consists of a family room and fully-equipped kitchen. There are three bedrooms on the second level, including the spacious owner’s suite, which is situated at the back of the home for optimal privacy and comfort. The completion date, prices and features may vary and are subject to change. Please verify with Lennar directly. Photos are for illustrative purposes only.

Key facts

• 2 garage spots
• Built 2026
• Listed 35 days

Property features AI

Finance

• HOA & community: Monthly association fee of $125; Association managed by Southern Property Management Group

Exterior

• Parking: Attached 2-car garage
• Utilities: Public water; Public sewer
• Home design: Residential property; Under construction (new construction); Slab foundation
• Construction: Built in 2026; Cement siding; Composition roof
• Exterior features: Back yard fence; Subdivision lot

Interior

• Kitchen: Dishwasher; Electric oven; Electric range; Gas oven; Gas range
• Bedrooms: Primary bedroom (Second level); Two additional bedrooms (Second level); One bedroom (First level)
• Flooring: Carpet; Vinyl
• Bathrooms: Two full bathrooms; One half bathroom
• Heating & cooling: Central heating (Electric and Gas); Central air conditioning (Electric and Gas)
• Interior features: Breakfast bar; Kitchen/family room combo; Primary bedroom with private bath; Separate shower; Tub/shower combination
• Laundry & utility: Washer hookup; Electric dryer hookup; Gas dryer hookup

🏗️ New construction. The $150,001 list price is a builder figure, so every metric below is computed on the value from comparable previous sales — $191,990.

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.5-bath single-family listed at $150k. Condition is rated good.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $271 ($3k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $150k).
• Recommended offer: $146k (3.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 8.0% vs local median 3.2% in Houston — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 74/100 on livability (#184 in TX, #4,771 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: amenities A+, cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: crime F.
• Crosby ISD (rural): math 39% / reading 40% proficiency, ranked #369 of 826 in TX (top 45%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: Crosby Middle (math 36% / reading 37%, grade F, #786 of 1,662 statewide, top 48%, 1,549 students, 60% FRL); Highpoint School East (Crosby) (20 students, 80% FRL) — zoned schools average 70% FRL vs 50% district-wide (20 pts higher); higher-poverty schools than district average — tighter screening recommended.
• Market conditions: Rents rising (+1.5%/yr); 1172 active listings in the ZIP; 2 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; solid renter incomes; 29,883 units permitted in Harris County in 2024 (8,621 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $6k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Harris County population projected at +47% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 35 days — a 3% lower offer ($146k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 2 sale attempts with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.

Recommended offer $145,500 (3.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 35 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 3% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
5. Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.14% ✓
• Cap rate: 7.99%
• Cash-on-cash: 6.05%
• DSCR: 1.27
• GRM: 7.3

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $191,990
• List price: $150,001
• Delta: -21.87%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
20131 Green Mallard St	0.02mi	3/2.5	1,189 (0%)	1mo	$138,991	$117	99
20138 Green Mallard St	0.02mi	3/2.5	1,189 (0%)	2mo	$191,990	$161	98
20147 Green Mallard St	0.03mi	3/2.5	1,189 (0%)	2mo	$191,990	$161	97
20050 White Dove Trl	0.09mi	3/2.0	1,273 (+7%)	1mo	$239,990	$189	82
20034 White Dove Trl	0.11mi	3/2.0	1,273 (+7%)	2mo	$237,990	$187	80
20026 White Dove Trl	0.13mi	3/2.0	1,273 (+7%)	2mo	$239,990	$189	79
20127 Green Mallard St	0.01mi	3/2.5	1,360 (+14%)	0mo	$181,990	$134	75
20159 Green Mallard St	0.04mi	3/2.5	1,360 (+14%)	1mo	$201,990	$149	73
20166 Green Mallard St	0.05mi	3/2.5	1,360 (+14%)	1mo	$201,990	$149	73
20235 New Moon Trl	0.26mi	3/2.0	1,296 (+9%)	1mo	$439,999	$340	70
20123 Green Mallard St	0.01mi	2/2.5 (-1)	1,013 (-15%)	1mo	$125,241	$124	69
20155 Green Mallard St	0.04mi	2/2.0 (-1)	1,013 (-15%)	2mo	$181,990	$180	65

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 1.48% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -8.8%
• Equity multiple: 0.68×
• Total profit: $-17,014
• Equity at exit: $28,626

10-year hold

• IRR: -1.5%
• Equity multiple: 0.90×
• Total profit: $-5,205
• Equity at exit: $16,600

Cash invested: $53,757 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 77532

• Home prices YoY: -28.6%
• Rents YoY: 1.5%
• Active inventory: 1172
• Price-to-rent: 5.7×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,181 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,007
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$240 /mo · $2,880/yr
• Insurance: −$80
• HOA: −$125
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$458
• Net cashflow: $271

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,838

Max offer price $191,990

Occupancy floor 83%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $47,998
• Closing costs: $5,760
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 2 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
20034 White Dove Dr Crosby, TX	3.0	2.0	1273	$1,850	$1.45	13d	1	0.11mi
20119 Iron Winds St Crosby, TX	3.0	2.0	1418	$1,875	$1.32	13d	1	0.18mi

HOA detail

• Monthly dues: $125 · $1,500/yr

Listing history 18 events

1. 2026-06-07
   status $150,001 Pending 35 DOM
2. 2026-06-04
   days on market $150,001 Active 35 DOM
3. 2026-06-03
   days on market $150,001 Active 34 DOM
4. 2026-06-02
   days on market $150,001 Active 33 DOM
5. 2026-06-01
   days on market $150,001 Active 32 DOM
6. 2026-05-31
   days on market $150,001 Active 31 DOM
7. 2026-05-08
   price $150,000 362-char remark
8. 2026-05-07
   price $150,000 546-char remark
9. 2026-04-30
   listed $155,040 Active 546-char remark
10. 2026-04-30
    historical
11. 2026-04-28
    price $155,040
12. 2026-04-28
    price $155,040 362-char remark
13. 2026-04-22
    price $162,990 362-char remark
14. 2026-04-20
    price $162,990
15. 2026-04-17
    price $164,690 362-char remark
16. 2026-04-16
    price $164,690
17. 2026-04-15
    listed $167,340 Active
18. 2026-04-14
    listed $167,340 Active 362-char remark

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $26,172
• − Mortgage interest: −$10,754
• − Property taxes: −$2,880
• − Insurance: −$960
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,094
• − Management: −$2,094
• − HOA: −$1,500
• − Depreciation: −$5,585
• Taxable income: $305
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$73
• After-tax cash flow: $3,181/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Condition & rehab AI · 12 photos

Good 80/100 Cosmetic rehab

This two-story home is in good condition with a modern and well-maintained interior and exterior. It is move-in ready and would benefit from a fresh coat of paint on the exterior siding and replacing the carpet in the bedrooms to further enhance its value.

Value-add opportunities

• Resale Paint the exterior siding — Fresh paint can enhance curb appeal and property value.
• Rental Replace the carpet in the bedrooms — New carpet can improve tenant satisfaction and reduce maintenance costs.
• Both Clean the air filters — Clean air filters can improve indoor air quality and reduce energy costs.

Renovation cost estimate screening

Value-add ROI direction

• Resale Paint the exterior siding — Fresh paint can enhance curb appeal and property value. ↑
• Rental Replace the carpet in the bedrooms — New carpet can improve tenant satisfaction and reduce maintenance costs. ↑
• Both Clean the air filters — Clean air filters can improve indoor air quality and reduce energy costs. ↑

ⓘ Cost ranges are severity-bucket heuristics (US national rule-of-thumb). Get contractor quotes + a written scope before underwriting a rehab budget.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Crosby ISD
• NCES district ID: 4815750
• Math proficiency: 39% ▼ -13.00%
• Reading proficiency: 40% ▼ -5.00%
• Median HH income: $61,079
• Composite: 35.14/100
• National rank: #5012
• State rank: #369 of 826 in TX

Livability — Houston

• Score: 74/100
• State rank: #184
• US rank: #4771

Category grades

Amenities A+ Commute A Cost of living A+ Crime F Employment C Housing A+ Health & safety A- User ratings F

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• County: Harris County · 4,702,590 people
• City population: 3,226,434
• Metro: Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land, TX
• Population (ZIP): 33,780
• Household income: $92,201
• Rent vs Own: 13.9% rent · 86.1% own
• Severe rent burden: 382.0

Population outlook (Harris County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 5,571,493 people
• By 2030: 6,089,821 · +9.3%
• By 2040: 7,142,806 · +28.2%
• By 2050: 8,185,864 · +46.9%
• By 2075: 10,574,329 · +89.8%
• By 2100: 12,109,958 · +117.4%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.60)
• Race & ethnicity: White 54% Hispanic / Latino 31% Two or more races 16% Black 9%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 24%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 4% Romanian 3% Italian 2%
• Foreign-born: 10% · Canada
• Languages at home: 78% English-only · Spanish 21%

Political lean MEDSL · Harris

• 2024 margin: Lean D (+5.5) · D 52.0% · R 46.4% · Other 1.6%
• 2008→2024 swing: +3.9pp toward D · 2008: 1.6pp · 2024: 5.5pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+5.5 2020: D+13.3 2016: D+12.4 2012: D+0.1 2008: D+1.6

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -105.63%
• Current HPI: 264.0126
• Rent YoY: ▲ 1.48%
• Metro: Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land, TX
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Price history

-10.4% since first listed

9 events — show timeline

• 2026-06-05 Pending — HARMLS
• 2026-05-26 Price Changed $150,001 HARMLS
• 2026-05-07 Price Changed $150,000 HARMLS
• 2026-04-30 Listing Removed — HARMLS
• 2026-04-30 Listed $155,040 HARMLS
• 2026-04-28 Price Changed $155,040 HARMLS
• 2026-04-20 Price Changed $162,990 HARMLS
• 2026-04-16 Price Changed $164,690 HARMLS
• 2026-04-15 Listed $167,340 HARMLS