408 W Euclid Ave · Shafter, CA 93063

$244,500

2 bd · 1.0 ba · 730 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 125 Days on market

Built 1954 3,920 sqft lot Est $307k · 20% under

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Why this score? — see what drove the C- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +16.0/30.0
• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• DSCR +4.9/10.0
• Rent growth +3.8/5.0
• 1% rule +3.6/10.0
• Livability +3.6/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Schools +1.5/10.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Investment property , renter would like to stay. Home does not have a foundation. Cash or Owner will carry loan. Make offer with your loan terms.

Key facts

• 3,920 sq ft lot
• Built 1954
• Listed 125 days

🏷️ Possibly a rental listed for sale. The $244,500 price doesn't fit this home's estimated sale value (~$306,600) and the remarks read like a rental — treat the cards below with caution.

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $244k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $120 ($1k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $210k (14.1% below list).
• Recommended offer: $210k (14.1% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 6.9% vs local median 2.7% in Shafter — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 72/100 on livability (#185 in CA) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: amenities A+, housing A+; Watch: health & safety C-, commute D+, cost of living D+.
• Richland Union Elementary (town): math 11% / reading 24% proficiency, ranked #480 of 517 in CA (top 93%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover; 79% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Market conditions: Rents rising fast (+5.2%/yr); 150 active listings in the ZIP; 2 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; high-income renter base; 3,244 units permitted in Kern County in 2024 (73 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $7k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Kern County population projected at +17% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 125 days — a 12% lower offer ($215k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 2 sale attempts since 4y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Current owner paid $150k; list at $244k implies a 63% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: built in 1954 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.
• Climate carrying-cost: moderate wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→18/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $210,092 (14.1% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 125 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 14% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Built in 1954 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
3. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.86% ✗
• Cap rate: 6.88%
• Cash-on-cash: 2.10%
• DSCR: 1.09
• GRM: 9.7

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $306,600
• Comps found: 2

Show comp detail 2 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
421 W Euclid Ave	0.03mi	3/2.0 (+1)	714 (-2%)	22mo	$300,000	$420	68
232 E Marengo Ave	0.59mi	3/1.0 (+1)	823 (+13%)	12mo	$235,000	$286	36

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 5.22% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -10.7%
• Equity multiple: 0.60×
• Total profit: $-27,258
• Equity at exit: $36,456

10-year hold

• IRR: 1.2%
• Equity multiple: 1.09×
• Total profit: $6,436
• Equity at exit: $21,140

Cash invested: $68,460 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 18 Strongly Tenant-Friendly
• State California: 18 Strongly Tenant-Friendly · D+13
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

AB1482 statewide rent cap (10% + CPI). Cities (SF/LA/Berkeley) layer stricter rules. Just-cause statewide.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 93063

• Rents YoY: 5.2%
• Active inventory: 150
• Price-to-rent: 9.7×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,101 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,282
• Tax from tax record: −$156 /mo · $1,871/yr
• Insurance: −$102
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$441
• Net cashflow: $120

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,949

Max offer price $244,500

Occupancy floor 89%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $61,125
• Closing costs: $7,335
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 2 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
354 E Euclid Ave Shafter, CA	1.0	1.0	475	$995	$2.09	44d	1	0.74mi
615 Kern St Apt 16 Shafter, CA	1.0	1.0	700	$1,125	$1.61	44d	1	0.86mi

Listing history 7 events

1. 2024-03-21
   status Pending
2. 2023-11-17
   listed $244,500 Active
3. 2022-04-14
   soldstatus $150,000 Sold 145-char remark

   Show marketing remark (145 chars)

   Investment property , renter would like to stay. Home does not have a foundation. Cash or Owner will carry loan. Make offer with your loan terms.

4. 2022-04-14
   soldstatus $150,000

   Show marketing remark (145 chars)

   Investment property , renter would like to stay. Home does not have a foundation. Cash or Owner will carry loan. Make offer with your loan terms.

5. 2022-03-10
   status Pending 145-char remark

   Show marketing remark (145 chars)

   Investment property , renter would like to stay. Home does not have a foundation. Cash or Owner will carry loan. Make offer with your loan terms.

6. 2022-01-04
   listed $150,000 Active 145-char remark

   Show marketing remark (145 chars)

   Investment property , renter would like to stay. Home does not have a foundation. Cash or Owner will carry loan. Make offer with your loan terms.

7. 1996-01-05
   soldstatus $23,000

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast CA · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $1,871 · $156/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $1,871 · $156/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 5/10 Major
• 🌡 Heat 8/10 Severe 7 d/yr ≥105°F today · 18 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 1/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 10/10 Extreme 23 unhealthy d/yr today · 28 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $25,211
• − Mortgage interest: −$13,696
• − Property taxes: −$1,871
• − Insurance: −$1,222
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,017
• − Management: −$2,017
• − Depreciation: −$7,113
• Taxable loss: −$2,725
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$654
• After-tax cash flow: $2,091/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Richland Union Elementary
• NCES district ID: 0621450
• Math proficiency: 11% ▼ -15.00%
• Reading proficiency: 24% ▼ -10.00%
• Median HH income: $39,624
• Composite: 14.8/100
• National rank: #9386
• State rank: #480 of 517 in CA

Livability — Shafter

• Score: 72/100
• State rank: #185
• US rank: #6066

Category grades

Amenities A+ Commute D+ Cost of living D+ Crime B- Employment F Housing A+ Health & safety C- User ratings B

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Shafter, CA
• County: Ventura County · 829,955 people
• City population: 23,423
• Metro: Oxnard-Thousand Oaks-Ventura, CA
• Population (ZIP): 55,066
• Household income: $125,098
• Rent vs Own: 26.2% rent · 73.8% own
• Severe rent burden: 1322.0

Population outlook (Kern County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 947,286 people
• By 2030: 978,984 · +3.3%
• By 2040: 1,045,018 · +10.3%
• By 2050: 1,105,232 · +16.7%
• By 2075: 1,229,538 · +29.8%
• By 2100: 1,238,059 · +30.7%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.62)
• Race & ethnicity: White 55% Hispanic / Latino 25% Two or more races 15% Asian 11% Black 2%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 17% Cuban 1%
• Common ancestry: Italian 5% Lithuanian 2% Slovak 2%
• Foreign-born: 18% · Canada, China, Vietnam
• Languages at home: 75% English-only · Spanish 14% Other Indo-European 4% Tagalog/Filipino 2%

Political lean MEDSL · Kern

• 2024 margin: Strong R (+21.1) · D 38.2% · R 59.3% · Other 2.5%
• 2008→2024 swing: -3.3pp toward R · 2008: -17.8pp · 2024: -21.1pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+21.1 2020: R+10.2 2016: R+15.0 2012: R+20.9 2008: R+17.8

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -910.70%
• Current HPI: 297.7444
• Rent YoY: ▲ 5.22%
• Metro: Oxnard-Thousand Oaks-Ventura, CA
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.21%
• F500 in state: 116

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in CA)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Technology	27	$1,492B
▸Financial Services	3	$174B
▸Retail	3	$44B
▸Insurance	3	$26B
▸Media / Entertainment	2	$115B
▸Pharmaceuticals / Biotech	2	$62B

Price history

+963.0% since first listed

7 events — show timeline

• 2024-03-21 Pending — GEMLS
• 2023-11-17 Listed $244,500 GEMLS
• 2022-04-14 Sold (Public Records) $150,000 Public Records
• 2022-04-14 Sold (MLS) $150,000 GEMLS
• 2022-03-10 Pending — GEMLS
• 2022-01-04 Listed $150,000 GEMLS
• 1996-01-05 Sold (Public Records) $23,000 Public Records

Property tax history

+13.4%/yr

Latest (2025): $1,871 · +1.7% YoY. Source: county tax records.