167 Tadlock Dr · Rockingham, NC 28379

$150,000

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,701 sqft · Manufactured public records · 19 Days on market

Built 2003 1.02 ac lot

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Why this score? — see what drove the C grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +25.4/30.0
• DSCR +8.4/10.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• 1% rule +5.7/10.0
• Livability +3.2/5.0
• Schools +2.7/10.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

Welcome to 167 Tadlock Dr--a home that feels fresh, comfortable, and ready for its next owner from the moment you walk in. Inside, you'll find brand-new flooring and fresh paint throughout, giving the entire space a clean and modern feel. Natural light fills the home, making every room feel bright and inviting. The kitchen has been updated with newer appliances and offers a practical layout that makes everyday living simple and enjoyable. Whether you're cooking for yourself or hosting family, it's a space that just works. You'll also notice thoughtful upgrades throughout the home, including updated light fixtures and faucets, along with refreshed bathrooms featuring new toilets--small detai

Key facts

• Updated appliances
• Fresh paint
• Thoughtful upgrades

Tags

• BRAND NEW FLOORING
• FRESH PAINT
• UPDATED APPLIANCES
• THOUGHTFUL UPGRADES
• UPDATED LIGHT FIXTURES
• REFRESHED BATHROOMS

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath manufactured listed at $150k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $347 ($4k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $150k).
• Recommended offer: $148k (1.5% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 9.1% vs local median 6.0% in Rockingham — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 63/100 on livability (#403 in NC) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A, health & safety B+; Watch: schools D-, crime F, amenities F.
• Richmond County Schools (town): math 30% / reading 36% proficiency, ranked #139 of 178 in NC (top 78%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases; 70% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Market conditions: 155 active listings in the ZIP; 54 units permitted in Richmond County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $4k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Richmond County population projected at -22% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 19 days — a 2% lower offer ($148k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: major wind risk, 59% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→16/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $147,750 (1.5% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
2. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
3. Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
4. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
5. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
6. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.07% ✓
• Cap rate: 9.07%
• Cash-on-cash: 9.93%
• DSCR: 1.44
• GRM: 7.8

CMA / ARV

No comps found within radius.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -1.4%
• Equity multiple: 0.95×
• Total profit: $-2,227
• Equity at exit: $22,365

10-year hold

• IRR: 8.3%
• Equity multiple: 1.63×
• Total profit: $26,359
• Equity at exit: $12,969

Cash invested: $42,000 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 85 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State North Carolina: 85 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+3
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

10-day notice; preempted; landlord-favorable but court speed varies.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 28379

• Home prices YoY: -32.4%
• Active inventory: 155
• Price-to-rent: 7.8×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,604 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$787
• Tax from tax record: −$70 /mo · $846/yr
• Insurance: −$62
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$337
• Net cashflow: $347

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,164

Max offer price $150,000

Occupancy floor 73%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $432	-5% $390	+0% $347	+5% $305	+10% $263
Rent	-10% $221	-5% $284	+0% $347	+5% $411	+10% $474
Rate	-1.0pp $423	-0.5pp $386	base $347	+0.5pp $309	+1.0pp $269

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $37,500
• Closing costs: $4,500
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 2 events

1. 2026-04-08
   status Pending
2. 2026-03-20
   listed $150,000 Active

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast NC · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $846 · $70/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $1,230 · $102/mo
• Expected delta: +$384/yr (+$32/mo · 45.5%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 4/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 7/10 Severe 7 d/yr ≥107°F today · 16 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 6/10 Major 59% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 1/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 0 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $19,246
• − Mortgage interest: −$8,402
• − Property taxes: −$846
• − Insurance: −$750
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,540
• − Management: −$1,540
• − Depreciation: −$4,364
• Taxable income: $1,805
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$433
• After-tax cash flow: $3,736/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Richmond County Schools
• NCES district ID: 3703870
• Math proficiency: 30% ▼ -12.00%
• Reading proficiency: 36% ▼ -3.00%
• Median HH income: $32,224
• Composite: 26.97/100
• National rank: #7076
• State rank: #139 of 178 in NC

Livability — Rockingham

• Score: 63/100
• State rank: #403
• US rank: #15356

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime F Employment F Housing A Health & safety B+ User ratings B+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• City population: 24,068
• Population (ZIP): 24,068

Population outlook (Richmond County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 42,892 people
• By 2030: 41,257 · -3.8%
• By 2040: 37,629 · -12.3%
• By 2050: 33,655 · -21.5%
• By 2075: 23,992 · -44.1%
• By 2100: 14,782 · -65.5%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.58)
• Race & ethnicity: White 56% Black 32% Hispanic / Latino 8% Two or more races 4% Asian 1%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 6%
• Common ancestry: Serbian 2% Slovak 2% Lithuanian 1%
• Foreign-born: 4% · Canada, Jamaica
• Languages at home: 91% English-only · Spanish 7%

Political lean MEDSL · Richmond

• 2024 margin: Strong R (+20.9) · D 39.2% · R 60.1%
• 2008→2024 swing: -22.4pp toward R · 2008: 1.5pp · 2024: -20.9pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+20.9 2020: R+14.8 2016: R+10.1 2012: D+2.7 2008: D+1.5

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -97.10%
• Current HPI: 203.0628
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.28%
• F500 in state: 26

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in NC)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Financial Services	2	$213B
▸Retail	2	$95B
▸Industrial Conglomerate	1	$38B
▸Metals / Steel	1	$35B
▸Utilities	1	$30B
▸Industrial Machinery	1	$19B

Price history

2 events — show timeline

• 2026-04-08 Pending — TMLS
• 2026-03-20 Listed $150,000 TMLS

Property tax history

+2.9%/yr

Latest (2025): $846 · -2.1% YoY. Source: county tax records.