817 Ute Ave · Lubbock, TX 79403

$75,000

3 bd · 1.0 ba · 1,090 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 3 Days on market

Built 2007 6,800 sqft lot ↓ 12% since listing

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Why this score? — see what drove the B- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +30.0/30.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• 1% rule +9.2/10.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Livability +4.0/5.0
• Schools +3.1/10.0
• Rent growth +2.9/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

Investor special! This property is being sold as-is and offers a great opportunity for investors, flippers, or landlords looking to expand their portfolio. Located in an established neighborhood near schools and parks. With rental potential, minimal entry cost, and room for updates or improvements, this property is ideal for those seeking value adding opportunities in a growing market. Don't miss your chance to turn this home into a cash-flowing asset! Seller is allowing $3,000 to a buyer for closing cost.

Key facts

• Near schools
• Rental potential
• Near parks

Tags

• ESTABLISHED NEIGHBORHOOD
• NEAR SCHOOLS
• NEAR PARKS
• RENTAL POTENTIAL
• ROOM FOR UPDATES
• VALUE ADDING OPPORTUNITIES

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $75k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $282 ($3k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($1k rent vs $75k).

Location & tenants

• Location reads 80/100 on livability (#37 in TX, #1,749 nationally) — a professional / high-income tenant draw. Strengths: commute A+, cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: employment C-, crime F.
• Lubbock ISD (urban): math 36% / reading 39% proficiency, ranked #481 of 826 in TX (top 58%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases; 60% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Zoned schools: Ervin El (math 17% / reading 17%, grade F, #3,836 of 4,322 statewide, top 91%, 405 students, 97% FRL, charter); Dunbar College Preparatory Academy (math 16% / reading 20%, grade F, #1,491 of 1,662 statewide, top 91%, 430 students, 97% FRL, charter); Estacado H S (math 26% / reading 29%, grade F, #1,183 of 1,632 statewide, top 73%, 897 students, 90% FRL) — zoned schools average 95% FRL vs 60% district-wide (35 pts higher); higher-poverty schools than district average — tighter screening recommended.
• Zoned-school proficiency averages 21% at this address vs 38% district-wide (-17 pts) — the specific schools serving this property underperform the Lubbock ISD average; the district grade overstates school quality for this exact location.
• Market conditions: Rents rising (+1.5%/yr); 165 active listings in the ZIP; 40 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 22d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 2,219 units permitted in Lubbock County in 2024 (252 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $519 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $2k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Lubbock County population projected at +39% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 1.5% rent growth), your $21k cash investment doubles in ~9 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• Only 3 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: moderate wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→22/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $75,000

Questions for the listing agent

1. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
2. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
3. Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
4. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
5. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
6. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.42% ✓
• Cap rate: 10.80%
• Cash-on-cash: 16.10%
• DSCR: 1.72
• GRM: 5.9

CMA / ARV

No comps found within radius.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 1.52% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 5.3%
• Equity multiple: 1.20×
• Total profit: $4,276
• Equity at exit: $11,183

10-year hold

• IRR: 13.3%
• Equity multiple: 1.99×
• Total profit: $20,786
• Equity at exit: $6,485

Cash invested: $21,000 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 79403

• Home prices YoY: -9.0%
• Rents YoY: 1.5%
• Active inventory: 165
• Price-to-rent: 5.9×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,063 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$393
• Tax from tax record: −$133 /mo · $1,598/yr
• Insurance: −$31
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$223
• Net cashflow: $282

Break-even live

Break-even rent $706

Max offer price $75,000

Occupancy floor 68%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $18,750
• Closing costs: $2,250
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 40 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
824 Vanda Ave Lubbock, TX	3.0	1.0	832	$750	$0.90	44d	1	0.04mi
2211 E Main St Lubbock, TX	3.0	2.0	1172	$1,100	$0.94	44d	1	0.07mi
2206 E Main St Lubbock, TX	3.0	2.0	1152	$975	$0.85	44d	1	0.08mi
808 Vanda Ave Lubbock, TX	3.0	1.0	832	$695	$0.84	21d	1	0.09mi
2117 E Broadway Unit 1 Lubbock, TX	3.0	1.0	963	$950	$0.99	44d	1	0.12mi
2226 E Main St Lubbock, TX	3.0	2.0	1100	$1,150	$1.05	44d	1	0.13mi
2123 E Broadway Unit 2 Lubbock, TX	3.0	1.0	963	$950	$0.99	21d	1	0.13mi
602 Walnut Ave Lubbock, TX	3.0	2.0	1172	$1,100	$0.94	44d	1	0.26mi
1516 E 8th St Lubbock, TX	3.0	2.0	1172	$1,050	$0.90	21d	1	0.30mi
1903 E 15th St Unit B Lubbock, TX	2.0	2.0	950	$1,075	$1.13	14d	1	0.36mi
1014 David Ave Lubbock, TX	3.0	2.0	1028	$1,030	$1.00	14d	1	0.60mi
312 Beech Ave Lubbock, TX	3.0	1.0	816	$695	$0.85	21d	1	0.60mi
312 Beech Ave Lubbock, TX	3.0	1.0	816	$800	$0.98	44d	1	0.60mi
2721 E 3rd St Lubbock, TX	3.0	2.0	1172	$1,050	$0.90	14d	1	0.63mi
1802 E 2nd St Lubbock, TX	4.0	1.0	1096	$875	$0.80	44d	1	0.64mi
1802 E 2nd St Lubbock, TX	4.0	1.0	1096	$695	$0.63	21d	1	0.64mi
411 David Ave Lubbock, TX	3.0	2.0	1204	$1,200	$1.00	14d	1	0.66mi
1809 E 2nd St Lubbock, TX	4.0	2.0	1203	$1,000	$0.83	44d	1	0.67mi
804 David Ave Lubbock, TX	3.0	2.0	1028	$1,049	$1.02	14d	1	0.67mi
2726 E 2nd St Lubbock, TX	3.0	1.0	816	$695	$0.85	21d	1	0.72mi
1828 E 1st St Lubbock, TX	3.0	1.0	1011	$695	$0.69	21d	1	0.75mi
1711 E 1st St Lubbock, TX	3.0	2.0	1124	$900	$0.80	21d	1	0.80mi
3016 E 3rd St Lubbock, TX	3.0	1.0	978	$695	$0.71	21d	1	0.81mi
2815 E 2nd St Apt 2 Lubbock, TX	3.0	1.0	750	$625	$0.83	14d	1	0.81mi
1808 E Auburn St Lubbock, TX	3.0	2.0	1172	$1,100	$0.94	21d	1	0.86mi
2612 E Auburn St Lubbock, TX	4.0	2.0	1196	$1,095	$0.92	21d	1	0.88mi
306 Zenith Ave Lubbock, TX	3.0	2.0	1298	$1,165	$0.90	21d	1	1.02mi
3411 E 16th St Lubbock, TX	3.0	2.0	1400	$1,100	$0.79	21d	1	1.03mi
310 Zenith Ave Lubbock, TX	3.0	2.0	1298	$1,164	$0.90	14d	1	1.04mi
2608 E Colgate St Lubbock, TX	3.0	1.0	990	$900	$0.91	44d	1	1.08mi
1933 E Colgate St Lubbock, TX	4.0	1.0	1310	$795	$0.61	21d	1	1.08mi
1730 E Dartmouth St Unit A Lubbock, TX	3.0	1.0	1015	$695	$0.68	44d	1	1.09mi
1726 E Dartmouth St Unit A Lubbock, TX	3.0	1.0	1100	$1,000	$0.91	21d	1	1.09mi
1726 E Dartmouth St Unit B Lubbock, TX	3.0	1.0	1100	$1,000	$0.91	44d	1	1.09mi
1918 E Cornell St Lubbock, TX	3.0	2.0	1028	$1,080	$1.05	21d	1	1.10mi
1702 E Dartmouth St Lubbock, TX	3.0	2.0	1172	$1,100	$0.94	21d	1	1.12mi
2912 E Baylor St Lubbock, TX	3.0	2.0	1176	$900	$0.77	44d	1	1.14mi
2912 E Baylor St Lubbock, TX	3.0	2.0	1176	$695	$0.59	21d	1	1.14mi
2624 E Cornell St Lubbock, TX	3.0	2.0	1298	$1,330	$1.02	14d	1	1.17mi
1516 E 27th St Unit B Lubbock, TX	2.0	2.0	1025	$1,195	$1.17	44d	1	1.24mi

Listing history 7 events

1. 2026-04-26
   status Pending
2. 2026-04-22
   listed $75,000 Active
3. 2026-04-08
   price $75,000
4. 2026-01-05
   price $80,000
5. 2025-11-12
   price $82,000
6. 2025-10-24
   price $85,000
7. 2018-10-18
   soldstatus

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast TX · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $1,598 · $133/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $1,598 · $133/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 5/10 Major
• 🌡 Heat 5/10 Major 7 d/yr ≥100°F today · 22 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 2/10 Low 100% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 1 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $12,753
• − Mortgage interest: −$4,201
• − Property taxes: −$1,598
• − Insurance: −$375
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,020
• − Management: −$1,020
• − Depreciation: −$2,182
• Taxable income: $2,356
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$565
• After-tax cash flow: $2,816/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Lubbock ISD
• NCES district ID: 4828500
• Math proficiency: 36% ▼ -8.00%
• Reading proficiency: 39% ▼ -1.00%
• Median HH income: $39,820
• Composite: 31.44/100
• National rank: #5984
• State rank: #481 of 826 in TX

Livability — Lubbock

• Score: 80/100
• State rank: #37
• US rank: #1749

Category grades

Amenities A Commute A+ Cost of living A+ Crime F Employment C- Housing A+ Health & safety A+ User ratings D+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Lubbock, TX
• County: Lubbock County · 293,542 people
• City population: 283,030
• Metro: Lubbock, TX
• Population (ZIP): 16,089
• Household income: $47,907
• Rent vs Own: 39.7% rent · 60.3% own
• Severe rent burden: 612.0

Population outlook (Lubbock County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 345,960 people
• By 2030: 371,449 · +7.4%
• By 2040: 424,539 · +22.7%
• By 2050: 481,150 · +39.1%
• By 2075: 633,467 · +83.1%
• By 2100: 746,853 · +115.9%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.64)
• Race & ethnicity: Hispanic / Latino 49% White 26% Black 23% Two or more races 16% Native American 1%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 35%
• Common ancestry: Slovak 1%
• Foreign-born: 3% · Canada
• Languages at home: 74% English-only · Spanish 25%

Political lean MEDSL · Lubbock

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+39.5) · D 29.7% · R 69.2% · Other 1.0%
• 2008→2024 swing: -2.8pp toward R · 2008: -36.7pp · 2024: -39.5pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+39.5 2020: R+32.2 2016: R+38.4 2012: R+40.9 2008: R+36.7

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -17.69%
• Current HPI: 178.9297
• Rent YoY: ▲ 1.52%
• Metro: Lubbock, TX
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Price history

-11.8% since first listed

7 events — show timeline

• 2026-04-26 Pending — LARMLS
• 2026-04-22 Listed $75,000 LARMLS
• 2026-04-08 Price Changed $75,000 LARMLS
• 2026-01-05 Price Changed $80,000 LARMLS
• 2025-11-12 Price Changed $82,000 LARMLS
• 2025-10-24 Price Changed $85,000 LARMLS
• 2018-10-18 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records

Property tax history

+5.8%/yr

Latest (2025): $1,598 · -3.7% YoY. Source: county tax records.