8477 Thunder Mountain Mhp Rd Unit SP 27 · Juneau, AK 99801

$71,500

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 696 sqft · Manufactured public records · 2 Days on market

Built 1965 $592/mo HOA · 29% of rent

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Why this score? — see what drove the B grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +30.0/30.0
• 1% rule +10.0/10.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Livability +4.2/5.0
• Schools +3.6/10.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

Welcome home to this affordable opportunity in the heart of the Mendenhall Valley. Ideally located near some of Juneau’s most loved outdoor spaces, you’ll enjoy easy access to scenic hiking and biking trails, the breathtaking Mendenhall Glacier, and daily views of Thunder Mountain right outside your door. Inside, this thoughtfully maintained mobile home offers approximately 1,188 square feet of comfortable living space, featuring 2 bedrooms and 1 full bathroom, along with a spacious living room, dedicated dining area, and a separate laundry room for added convenience. Step outside to a fenced backyard where raspberry canes offer a sweet seasonal bonus—perfect for enjoying

Key facts

• Raspberry canes
• Mendenhall glacier
• Fenced backyard

Tags

• MENDENHALL GLACIER
• VIEWS OF THUNDER MOUNTAIN
• FENCED BACKYARD
• RASPBERRY CANES

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath manufactured listed at $72k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $575 ($7k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $72k).
• Cap rate 15.9% vs local median 2.6% in Juneau — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 84/100 on livability (#3 in AK, #703 nationally) — a professional / high-income tenant draw. Strengths: commute A+, employment A+, housing A+; Watch: crime F, cost of living F.
• Juneau Borough School District (town): math 32% / reading 44% proficiency, ranked #9 of 21 in AK (top 43%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: Sit Eeti Shaanax - Glacier Valley School (math 27% / reading 32%, grade F, #112 of 156 statewide, top 74%, 325 students, 34% FRL); Floyd Dryden Middle School (math 22% / reading 27%, grade F, #30 of 36 statewide, top 86%, 407 students, 24% FRL); Thunder Mountain High School (math 52% / reading 62%, grade C, #5 of 61 statewide, top 8%, 586 students, 20% FRL) — zoned schools at 26% FRL track the district average.
• Market conditions: 179 active listings in the ZIP; solid renter incomes; 114 units permitted in Juneau City and Borough in 2024 (82 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $494 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $2k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Juneau County population projected at +26% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $20k cash investment doubles in ~4 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• Only 2 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: HOA is 29% of rent.

Recommended offer $71,500

Questions for the listing agent

1. Built in 1965 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
2. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. Schools are B-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
5. Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 2.84% ✓
• Cap rate: 15.94%
• Cash-on-cash: 34.45%
• DSCR: 2.53
• GRM: 2.9

CMA / ARV

No comps found within radius.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 30.2%
• Equity multiple: 2.27×
• Total profit: $25,376
• Equity at exit: $10,661

10-year hold

• IRR: 37.6%
• Equity multiple: 4.53×
• Total profit: $70,695
• Equity at exit: $6,182

Cash invested: $20,020 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 80 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Alaska: 80 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+8
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

30-day notice; security deposits capped; courts moderate-paced.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 99801

• Active inventory: 179
• Price-to-rent: 2.9×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,034 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$375
• Tax from tax record: −$36 /mo · $427/yr
• Insurance: −$30
• HOA: −$592
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$427
• Net cashflow: $575

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,307

Max offer price $71,500

Occupancy floor 67%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $615	-5% $595	+0% $575	+5% $554	+10% $534
Rent	-10% $414	-5% $494	+0% $575	+5% $655	+10% $735
Rate	-1.0pp $611	-0.5pp $593	base $575	+0.5pp $556	+1.0pp $537

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $17,875
• Closing costs: $2,145
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

HOA detail

• Monthly dues: $592 · $7,104/yr

Listing history 3 events

1. 2026-04-08
   status Pending
2. 2026-04-05
   listed $71,500 Active
3. 1997-08-01
   soldstatus

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast AK · Partial reset (capped growth)

• Current annual tax: $427 · $36/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $639 · $53/mo
• Expected delta: +$212/yr (+$18/mo · 49.7%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 1/10 Low

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $24,410
• − Mortgage interest: −$4,005
• − Property taxes: −$427
• − Insurance: −$358
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,953
• − Management: −$1,953
• − HOA: −$7,104
• − Depreciation: −$2,080
• Taxable income: $6,531
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$1,567
• After-tax cash flow: $5,329/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Juneau Borough School District
• NCES district ID: 0200210
• Math proficiency: 32% ▼ -8.00%
• Reading proficiency: 44% ▼ -2.00%
• Median HH income: $81,032
• Composite: 35.76/100
• National rank: #4845
• State rank: #9 of 21 in AK

Livability — Juneau

• Score: 84/100
• State rank: #3
• US rank: #703

Category grades

Amenities A- Commute A+ Cost of living F Crime F Employment A+ Housing A+ Health & safety A+ User ratings B+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Juneau, AK
• County: Juneau Borough · 29,588 people
• City population: 29,588
• Metro: Juneau, AK
• Population (ZIP): 29,588
• Household income: $102,217
• Rent vs Own: 35.1% rent · 64.9% own
• Severe rent burden: 660.0

Population outlook (Juneau County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 36,707 people
• By 2030: 38,658 · +5.3%
• By 2040: 42,270 · +15.2%
• By 2050: 46,086 · +25.6%
• By 2075: 58,476 · +59.3%
• By 2100: 69,228 · +88.6%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.61)
• Race & ethnicity: White 62% Two or more races 17% Native American 8% Asian 7% Hispanic / Latino 7% Pacific Islander 1%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 3%
• Common ancestry: Portuguese 5% Slovak 3% Italian 3%
• Foreign-born: 8% · Canada, China
• Languages at home: 89% English-only · Tagalog/Filipino 3% Spanish 3% Other Asian/Pacific 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Juneau

• 2016 margin: R (+15.2) · D 37.7% · R 52.9% · Other 9.4%
• All cycles: 2016: R+15.2

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -211.89%
• Current HPI: 170.9025
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: Juneau, AK
• State GDP YoY: —
• F500 in state: 0

Price history

3 events — show timeline

• 2026-04-08 Pending — SEABR
• 2026-04-05 Listed $71,500 SEABR
• 1997-08-01 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records

Property tax history

+3.6%/yr

Latest (2024): $427 · -1.2% YoY. Source: county tax records.