52 Averill Ave · Averill Park, NY 12018

$439,000

2 bd · 2.5 ba · 1,620 sqft · Townhouse public records · 27 Days on market

Built 2014 0.25 ac lot $271/sqft · at area comps Est $462k · at est. $275/mo HOA · 12% of rent

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Why this score? — see what drove the D- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Appreciation +10.0/10.0
• ARV discount +9.7/15.0
• Schools +5.7/10.0
• Livability +4.0/5.0
• Cash flow +2.6/30.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• 1% rule +0.2/10.0
• DSCR +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Spacious new construction 3 bedroom Townhouse in Westfall Village. A low maintenance walking community offering a gazebo, pond and future commercial venues. This home is to be built and has many upgrades that are standard...all backed by Patanian homes quality. Superior Condition, To Be Built Condition

Key facts

• Stone countertops
• Open-concept kitchen
• Gas fireplace

Tags

• OPEN-CONCEPT KITCHEN
• GAS FIREPLACE
• STONE COUNTERTOPS
• GAS STOVE
• STAINLESS STEEL APPLIANCES
• BUTLER'S PANTRY

Property features AI

Finance

• Other: Air purifier included
• HOA & community: Homeowners association with a $275 monthly fee; Association fee includes grounds and structure maintenance, snow removal, and trash

Exterior

• Parking: Attached 2-car garage; Total of 4 parking spaces; Paved off-street parking with driveway and garage door opener
• Security: Security system
• Utilities: Public sewer and shared septic; Shared well water; Cable available
• Home design: Townhouse; Updated/remodeled; Slab foundation
• Construction: Vinyl siding; Asphalt roof
• Exterior features: Patio; Porch; Paved driveway; Front and back yard fencing; Level, landscaped lot in a cul-de-sac

Interior

• Kitchen: Dishwasher; Gas oven; Microwave; Refrigerator
• Bedrooms: Primary bedroom on first floor; Two additional bedrooms on first floor; Bedroom in basement
• Flooring: Carpet; Ceramic tile; Hardwood; Laminate
• Bathrooms: Three full bathrooms (two on first floor, one in basement)
• Heating & cooling: Forced air heating; Central air conditioning; One gas fireplace in family room
• Interior features: High-speed internet; Paddle fan; Vaulted ceilings; Walk-in closets; Wet bar and dry bar; Atrium door
• Laundry & utility: Washer and dryer included; Laundry in basement (laundry closet); Utility room in basement

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/2.5-bath townhouse listed at $439k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-2k ($-18k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $172k (60.8% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $229k (47.8% below list).
• Recommended offer: $172k (60.8% below list) — sets the bar for cash-flow.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 80/100 on livability (#101 in NY, #1,641 nationally) — a professional / high-income tenant draw. Strengths: crime A+, employment A+, housing A+; Watch: amenities F, commute F.
• Averill Park Central School District (rural): math 58% / reading 69% proficiency, ranked #169 of 590 in NY (top 29%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease; only 14% free/reduced lunch — higher-income household profile.
• Zoned schools: Algonquin Middle School (math 32% / reading 60%, grade D+, #334 of 729 statewide, top 46%, 585 students, 26% FRL); Averill Park High School (math 97% / reading 98%, grade A+, #49 of 1,100 statewide, top 5%, 897 students, 25% FRL).
• Market conditions: 55 active listings in the ZIP; 405 units permitted in Rensselaer County in 2024 (224 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $47k of equity ($3k loan paydown + $44k appreciation (10.0% local appreciation)).
• Rensselaer County population projected to shrink 6% by 2050 — rents likely to lag national; underwrite the cash flow, not the appreciation.
• By year 2, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$75k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 27 days — a 2% lower offer ($432k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 3 sale attempts since 12y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Current owner paid $300k; 46% above their basis — modest negotiation headroom, anchor on the comps not their cost.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: moderate wildfire risk — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $172,191 (60.8% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. Schools are B-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
5. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.52% ✗
• Cap rate: 2.16%
• Cash-on-cash: -14.74%
• DSCR: 0.34
• GRM: 16.0

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $461,906
• List price: $439,000
• Delta: -4.96%
• Verdict: FAIR
• Comps: 11 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 1 sale within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
57 Averill Ave	0.04mi	3/2.5 (+1)	1,849 (+14%)	3mo	$419,900	$227	67

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

10.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 14.1%
• Equity multiple: 2.16×
• Total profit: $143,106
• Equity at exit: $395,486

10-year hold

• IRR: 14.1%
• Equity multiple: 5.05×
• Total profit: $497,489
• Equity at exit: $852,880

Cash invested: $122,920 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 15 Strongly Tenant-Friendly
• State New York: 15 Strongly Tenant-Friendly · D+10
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

NYC rent stabilization (~1M units); 2019 HSTPA strengthened tenant rights; courts deeply backlogged.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 12018

• Home prices YoY: 4.5%
• Active inventory: 55
• Price-to-rent: 16.0×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,290 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$2,302
• Tax from tax record: −$559 /mo · $6,712/yr
• Insurance: −$183
• HOA: −$275
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$481
• Net cashflow: $-1,510

Break-even live

Break-even rent $4,202

Max offer price $172,191

Occupancy floor —

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $-1,262	-5% $-1,386	+0% $-1,510	+5% $-1,635	+10% $-1,759
Rent	-10% $-1,691	-5% $-1,601	+0% $-1,510	+5% $-1,420	+10% $-1,329
Rate	-1.0pp $-1,289	-0.5pp $-1,399	base $-1,510	+0.5pp $-1,624	+1.0pp $-1,740

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $109,750
• Closing costs: $13,170
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

HOA detail

• Monthly dues: $275 · $3,300/yr

Listing history 17 events

1. 2026-06-14
   statusdays on market $439,000 Pending 27 DOM
2. 2026-06-10
   days on market $439,000 Active 26 DOM
3. 2026-06-09
   days on market $439,000 Active 25 DOM
4. 2026-06-09
   price $439,000 Active 24 DOM
5. 2026-06-08
   days on market $449,000 Active 24 DOM
6. 2026-06-07
   days on market $449,000 Active 23 DOM
7. 2026-06-03
   days on market $449,000 Active 19 DOM
8. 2026-06-02
   days on market $449,000 Active 18 DOM
9. 2026-06-01
   days on market $449,000 Active 17 DOM
10. 2026-05-31
    days on market $449,000 Active 16 DOM
11. 2026-05-31
    days on market $449,000 Active 15 DOM
12. 2026-05-15
    listed $449,000 Active 977-char remark
13. 2015-12-09
    soldstatus $299,900 Closed (Final Sale) 303-char remark

    Show marketing remark (303 chars)

    Spacious new construction 3 bedroom Townhouse in Westfall Village. A low maintenance walking community offering a gazebo, pond and future commercial venues. This home is to be built and has many upgrades that are standard...all backed by Patanian homes quality. Superior Condition, To Be Built Condition

14. 2015-05-01
    historical 303-char remark

    Show marketing remark (303 chars)

    Spacious new construction 3 bedroom Townhouse in Westfall Village. A low maintenance walking community offering a gazebo, pond and future commercial venues. This home is to be built and has many upgrades that are standard...all backed by Patanian homes quality. Superior Condition, To Be Built Condition

15. 2014-07-29
    listed $274,900 303-char remark

    Show marketing remark (303 chars)

    Spacious new construction 3 bedroom Townhouse in Westfall Village. A low maintenance walking community offering a gazebo, pond and future commercial venues. This home is to be built and has many upgrades that are standard...all backed by Patanian homes quality. Superior Condition, To Be Built Condition

16. 2014-07-22
    historical
17. 2014-06-05
    listed $277,900

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast NY · Partial reset (capped growth)

• Current annual tax: $6,712 · $559/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $7,065 · $589/mo
• Expected delta: +$354/yr (+$29/mo · 5.3%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 5/10 Major
• 🌡 Heat 3/10 Moderate 7 d/yr ≥93°F today · 17 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 3/10 Moderate 7% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 1 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $27,479
• − Mortgage interest: −$24,591
• − Property taxes: −$6,712
• − Insurance: −$2,195
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,198
• − Management: −$2,198
• − HOA: −$3,300
• − Depreciation: −$12,771
• Taxable loss: −$26,486
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$6,357
• After-tax cash flow: $-11,768/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Averill Park Central School District
• NCES district ID: 3600016
• Math proficiency: 58% ▼ -15.00%
• Reading proficiency: 69% ▲ 2.00%
• Median HH income: $81,340
• Composite: 56.94/100
• National rank: #1113
• State rank: #169 of 590 in NY

Livability — Averill Park

• Score: 80/100
• State rank: #101
• US rank: #1641

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living C Crime A+ Employment A+ Housing A+ Health & safety A+ User ratings A+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Averill Park, NY
• Population (ZIP): 7,069

Population outlook (Rensselaer County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 162,400 people
• By 2030: 161,746 · -0.4%
• By 2040: 158,095 · -2.7%
• By 2050: 152,966 · -5.8%
• By 2075: 140,767 · -13.3%
• By 2100: 124,727 · -23.2%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (95%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 95% Two or more races 4% Hispanic / Latino 3%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 5% Lithuanian 4% Italian 4%
• Foreign-born: 5% · Canada
• Languages at home: 93% English-only · Other Indo-European 4% French/Haitian/Cajun 1% Russian/Polish/Slavic 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Rensselaer

• 2024 margin: Toss-up / Even · D 50.7% · R 49.3%
• 2008→2024 swing: -8.0pp toward R · 2008: 9.3pp · 2024: 1.4pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+1.4 2020: D+5.6 2016: R+2.9 2012: D+11.8 2008: D+9.3

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 11.43%
• Current HPI: 263.2196
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.60%
• F500 in state: 92

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in NY)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Financial Services	10	$950B
▸Consumer Goods	9	$162B
▸Insurance	4	$225B
▸Telecommunications	2	$144B
▸Pharmaceuticals	2	$112B
▸Media / Entertainment	2	$69B

Price history

+58.0% since first listed

8 events — show timeline

• 2026-06-12 Pending — Global MLS
• 2026-06-08 Price Changed $439,000 Global MLS
• 2026-05-15 Listed $449,000 Global MLS
• 2015-12-09 Sold (MLS) $299,900 Global MLS
• 2015-05-01 Listing Removed — Global MLS
• 2014-07-29 Listed $274,900 Global MLS
• 2014-07-22 Listing Removed — Global MLS
• 2014-06-05 Listed $277,900 Global MLS

Property tax history

+0.6%/yr

Latest (2025): $6,712 · -3.5% YoY. Source: county tax records.