101 Bourgeois St · Welsh, LA 70591

$145,000

4 bd · 3.0 ba · 1,955 sqft · SingleFamily · 5 Days on market

Built 1965 0.50 ac lot Est $221k · 34% under ↓ 12% since listing

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Why this score? — see what drove the C+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +18.1/30.0
• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• Appreciation +6.0/10.0
• DSCR +5.7/10.0
• 1% rule +4.3/10.0
• Livability +3.2/5.0
• Schools +3.0/10.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0

Listing remarks MLS

The beautiful grounds of this property are truly one of a kind! Six majestic live oaks adorn the landscape along with many flower beds, a large paved driveway/area and a brick patio. The home has a big screened porch to enjoy the views! This lovely 4bd 3ba home includes a large living room with built in book shelves, open kitchen/dining area, an over sized master suite with a built in desk/bookcase and a walk in closet. This house has many spacious closets and a decked attic for even more storage. All measurements are more or less. Call today for your private showing!

Key facts

• Functional kitchen
• Spacious yard
• New roof

Tags

• NEW ROOF
• FUNCTIONAL KITCHEN
• SPACIOUS YARD

Property features AI

Exterior

• Utilities: Public water; Public sewer; Electricity connected; Natural gas connected; Cable available; Phone available
• Home design: Single-family house; One story
• Exterior features: Back yard; City lot; Landscaped grounds

Interior

• Bathrooms: 3 full bathrooms
• Heating & cooling: Central heating; Central air conditioning; Ceiling fans
• Interior features: No fireplace

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 4-bed/3.0-bath single-family listed at $145k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $127 ($2k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $135k (6.9% below list).
• Recommended offer: $135k (6.9% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 63/100 on livability (#189 in LA) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, schools B+; Watch: amenities F, commute F, employment D-.
• Jefferson Davis Parish (town): math 30% / reading 42% proficiency, ranked #33 of 98 in LA (top 34%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Market conditions: 45 active listings in the ZIP; 69 units permitted in Jefferson Davis Parish in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $4k of equity ($1k loan paydown + $3k appreciation (1.9% local appreciation)).
• Jefferson Davis County population projected to shrink 8% by 2050 — rents likely to lag national; underwrite the cash flow, not the appreciation.
• At projected returns (1.9% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $41k cash investment doubles in ~7 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
• By year 9, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$33k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Negotiation context

• Only 5 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.
• 2 sale attempts since 6y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→21/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $134,941 (6.9% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. Built in 1965 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
2. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
3. Schools are B-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
4. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
5. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
6. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.93% ✗
• Cap rate: 7.34%
• Cash-on-cash: 3.75%
• DSCR: 1.17
• GRM: 9.0

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $220,915
• Comps found: 9

Show comp detail 9 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
101 Bourgeois St	0.00mi	4/3.0	1,955 (0%)	1mo	$140,000	$72	99
105 Radeke St	0.13mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,872 (-4%)	1mo	$172,000	$92	77
319 Goodwin St	0.28mi	4/2.5	1,800 (-8%)	10mo	$315,000	$175	63
317 Willard St	0.43mi	4/2.0	1,872 (-4%)	16mo	$202,000	$108	56
406 West Hudspeth St	0.50mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,752 (-10%)	1mo	$199,900	$114	49
515 S Polk St S	0.44mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,768 (-10%)	10mo	$209,000	$118	46
401 Pine St	0.57mi	3/2.0 (-1)	2,000 (+2%)	22mo	$225,000	$113	42
602 W Hudspeth St W	0.60mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,700 (-13%)	6mo	$89,000	$52	37
102 S Littell St S	0.71mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,754 (-10%)	9mo	$247,500	$141	33

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

1.94% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 8.0%
• Equity multiple: 1.43×
• Total profit: $17,546
• Equity at exit: $56,701

10-year hold

• IRR: 11.3%
• Equity multiple: 2.52×
• Total profit: $61,512
• Equity at exit: $81,274

Cash invested: $40,600 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 90 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Louisiana: 90 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+12
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

5-day notice; no state rent control; civil-law jurisdiction; landlord-favorable.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 70591

• Home prices YoY: 1.1%
• Active inventory: 45
• Price-to-rent: 9.0×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,349 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$760
• Tax from tax record: −$118 /mo · $1,419/yr
• Insurance: −$60
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$283
• Net cashflow: $127

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,189

Max offer price $145,000

Occupancy floor 86%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $36,250
• Closing costs: $4,350
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 4 events

1. 2026-04-29
   status Pending
2. 2026-04-24
   listed $145,000 Active
3. 2021-01-15
   soldstatus 574-char remark

   Show marketing remark (574 chars)

   The beautiful grounds of this property are truly one of a kind! Six majestic live oaks adorn the landscape along with many flower beds, a large paved driveway/area and a brick patio. The home has a big screened porch to enjoy the views! This lovely 4bd 3ba home includes a large living room with built in book shelves, open kitchen/dining area, an over sized master suite with a built in desk/bookcase and a walk in closet. This house has many spacious closets and a decked attic for even more storage. All measurements are more or less. Call today for your private showing!

4. 2020-07-01
   listed $165,000 574-char remark

   Show marketing remark (574 chars)

   The beautiful grounds of this property are truly one of a kind! Six majestic live oaks adorn the landscape along with many flower beds, a large paved driveway/area and a brick patio. The home has a big screened porch to enjoy the views! This lovely 4bd 3ba home includes a large living room with built in book shelves, open kitchen/dining area, an over sized master suite with a built in desk/bookcase and a walk in closet. This house has many spacious closets and a decked attic for even more storage. All measurements are more or less. Call today for your private showing!

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast LA · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $1,419 · $118/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $1,419 · $118/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 4/10 Moderate FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 24% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 8/10 Severe 7 d/yr ≥109°F today · 21 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 9/10 Extreme 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 1/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 0 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $16,193
• − Mortgage interest: −$8,122
• − Property taxes: −$1,419
• − Insurance: −$725
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,295
• − Management: −$1,295
• − Depreciation: −$4,218
• Taxable loss: −$883
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$212
• After-tax cash flow: $1,735/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Jefferson Davis Parish
• NCES district ID: 2200810
• Math proficiency: 30% ▼ -39.00%
• Reading proficiency: 42% ▼ -33.00%
• Median HH income: $40,322
• Composite: 30.21/100
• National rank: #6302
• State rank: #33 of 98 in LA

Livability — Welsh

• Score: 63/100
• State rank: #189
• US rank: #15036

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime B Employment D- Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Welsh, LA
• Population (ZIP): 5,635

Population outlook (Jefferson Davis County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 31,015 people
• By 2030: 30,563 · -1.5%
• By 2040: 29,639 · -4.4%
• By 2050: 28,456 · -8.3%
• By 2075: 25,521 · -17.7%
• By 2100: 21,787 · -29.8%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (75%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 75% Black 15% Two or more races 10%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 22% Italian 1%
• Languages at home: 93% English-only · French/Haitian/Cajun 6%

Political lean MEDSL · Jefferson Davis

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+61.1) · D 18.8% · R 79.9% · Other 1.3%
• 2008→2024 swing: -21.5pp toward R · 2008: -39.7pp · 2024: -61.1pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+61.1 2020: R+55.4 2016: R+53.9 2012: R+47.6 2008: R+39.7

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 1.94%
• Current HPI: 174.2929
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.29%
• F500 in state: 10

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in LA)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Telecommunications	2	$23B
▸Utilities	1	$12B
▸Wholesale / Distribution	1	$5B
▸Advertising	1	$2B

Price history

-12.1% since first listed

4 events — show timeline

• 2026-04-29 Pending — SWLAR
• 2026-04-24 Listed $145,000 SWLAR
• 2021-01-15 Sold (MLS) — SWLAR
• 2020-07-01 Listed $165,000 SWLAR

Property tax history

+12.4%/yr

Latest (2025): $1,419 · +0.4% YoY. Source: county tax records.