1111 SE 3rd Ave #15 · Canby, OR 97013

$158,000

3 bd · 1.0 ba · 1,456 sqft · Other public records · 126 Days on market

Built 2006 $109/sqft · 63% above area

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Why this score? — see what drove the B- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +30.0/30.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• 1% rule +7.9/10.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Livability +4.1/5.0
• Schools +3.6/10.0
• Rent growth +3.0/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Pine Crossing is an all age manufactured home park in South East Canby with convenient access to 99E and all Canby has to offer. The manufactured home on lot 15 was built in 2006 and offers three bedrooms, two bathrooms, living room, dining and kitchen. The LVP flooring throughout the house brings continuity to the home. Primary suite is on one end of the home with the open living area in the center. The yard is fully fenced and also has a hot tub (needs to be serviced). At the end of the long carport, you will find an outside storage shed.

Key facts

• Hot tub
• Fully fenced yard
• Outside storage shed

Tags

• CONVENIENT ACCESS TO 99E
• FULLY FENCED YARD
• HOT TUB
• OUTSIDE STORAGE SHED

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/1.0-bath other listed at $158k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $652 ($8k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $158k).
• Recommended offer: $139k (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 11.2% vs local median 2.1% in Canby — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 82/100 on livability (#43 in OR, #1,056 nationally) — a professional / high-income tenant draw. Strengths: commute A+, employment A+, housing A+; Watch: schools C-, cost of living D-.
• Canby SD 86 (town): math 36% / reading 45% proficiency, ranked #14 of 58 in OR (top 24%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Market conditions: Rents rising (+1.9%/yr); 166 active listings in the ZIP; 11 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals leasing fast (median 5d on market — plan ~1-2 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); solid renter incomes; 946 units permitted in Clackamas County in 2024 (188 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $5k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Clackamas County population projected at +25% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 1.9% rent growth), your $44k cash investment doubles in ~8 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 126 days — a 12% lower offer ($139k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 2 sale attempts with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.

Recommended offer $139,040 (12.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 126 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
5. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
6. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.29% ✓
• Cap rate: 11.25%
• Cash-on-cash: 17.69%
• DSCR: 1.79
• GRM: 6.4

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $97,000
• List price: $158,000
• Delta: 62.89%
• Verdict: OVERPRICED
• Comps: 11 within 1.0 mi

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 1.89% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 8.0%
• Equity multiple: 1.31×
• Total profit: $13,618
• Equity at exit: $23,558

10-year hold

• IRR: 16.3%
• Equity multiple: 2.27×
• Total profit: $56,075
• Equity at exit: $13,661

Cash invested: $44,240 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 28 Tenant-Leaning
• State Oregon: 28 Tenant-Leaning · D+6
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

SB608 (2019): statewide rent cap (7% + CPI) and just-cause for tenancies > 1 yr. Portland has relocation assistance ordinance.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 97013

• Rents YoY: 1.9%
• Active inventory: 166
• Price-to-rent: 6.4×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,044 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$829
• Tax from tax record: −$68 /mo · $819/yr
• Insurance: −$66
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$429
• Net cashflow: $652

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,219

Max offer price $158,000

Occupancy floor 63%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $39,500
• Closing costs: $4,740
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 11 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
700 SE 5th Ave Canby, OR	2.0–3.0	2.0	1066	$1,840	$1.73	2d	2	0.13mi
259 S Sequoia Pkwy Canby, OR	1.0–3.0	1.0–2.0	1013	$2,330	$2.30	2d	12	0.32mi
575 N Pine St Unit 575 Canby, OR	2.0	1.0	1100	$1,550	$1.41	4d	1	0.39mi
645 N Pine St Canby, OR	2.0	1.0	1100	$1,550	$1.41	2d	1	0.39mi
625 N Pine St Unit 639 Canby, OR	2.0	1.0	1100	$1,550	$1.41	43d	1	0.41mi
190 SE 3rd Ave Canby, OR	3.0	2.0	1196	$2,450	$2.05	43d	1	0.44mi
499 SW 5th Ave Canby, OR	3.0	1.0	942	$2,195	$2.33	44d	1	0.76mi
259 N Cedar St Canby, OR	3.0	2.5	1453	$2,399	$1.65	7d	1	1.00mi
1802 N Pine St Canby, OR	2.0	2.0	1002	$1,499	$1.50	4d	1	1.05mi
267 N Aspen St Canby, OR	3.0	2.5	1252	$2,100	$1.68	20d	1	1.10mi
2040 N Redwood St Canby, OR	1.0–2.0	1.0	910	$1,599	$1.76	1d	2	1.20mi

Listing history 15 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $158,000 Active 126 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $158,000 Active 125 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $158,000 Active 124 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   days on market $158,000 Active 123 DOM
5. 2026-06-13
   days on market $158,000 Active 121 DOM
6. 2026-06-09
   days on market $158,000 Active 117 DOM
7. 2026-06-08
   days on market $158,000 Active 116 DOM
8. 2026-06-07
   days on market $158,000 Active 115 DOM
9. 2026-06-05
   days on market $158,000 Active 112 DOM
10. 2026-06-03
    days on market $158,000 Active 111 DOM
11. 2026-06-02
    days on market $158,000 Active 110 DOM
12. 2026-06-01
    days on market $158,000 Active 109 DOM
13. 2026-05-31
    days on market $158,000 Active 108 DOM
14. 2026-03-03
    listed $163,000 Active 546-char remark

    Show marketing remark (546 chars)

    Pine Crossing is an all age manufactured home park in South East Canby with convenient access to 99E and all Canby has to offer. The manufactured home on lot 15 was built in 2006 and offers three bedrooms, two bathrooms, living room, dining and kitchen. The LVP flooring throughout the house brings continuity to the home. Primary suite is on one end of the home with the open living area in the center. The yard is fully fenced and also has a hot tub (needs to be serviced). At the end of the long carport, you will find an outside storage shed.

15. 2026-02-12
    listed $163,000 Active 551-char remark

    Show marketing remark (551 chars)

    Pine Crossing is an all age manufactured home park in South East Canby with convenient access to 99E and all Canby has to offer. The manufactured home on lot 15 was built in 2006 and offers three bedrooms, two bathrooms, living room, dining and kitchen. The LVP flooring throughout the house brings continuity to the home. Primary suite is on one end of the home with the open living area in the center. The yard is fully fenced and also has a hot tub (needs to be serviced). At the end of the long carport, you will find an outside storage shed.

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast OR · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $819 · $68/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $1,533 · $128/mo
• Expected delta: +$714/yr (+$59/mo · 87.2%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 4/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 3/10 Moderate 7 d/yr ≥92°F today · 14 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 1/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 10/10 Extreme 16 unhealthy d/yr today · 18 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $24,526
• − Mortgage interest: −$8,850
• − Property taxes: −$819
• − Insurance: −$790
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,962
• − Management: −$1,962
• − Depreciation: −$4,596
• Taxable income: $5,547
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$1,331
• After-tax cash flow: $6,493/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Canby SD 86
• NCES district ID: 4102640
• Math proficiency: 36% ▼ -4.00%
• Reading proficiency: 45% ▼ -5.00%
• Median HH income: $64,246
• Composite: 36.24/100
• National rank: #4717
• State rank: #14 of 58 in OR

Livability — Canby

• Score: 82/100
• State rank: #43
• US rank: #1056

Category grades

Amenities A Commute A+ Cost of living D- Crime A- Employment A+ Housing A+ Health & safety A+ User ratings D

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Canby, OR
• County: Clackamas County · 361,406 people
• City population: 24,293
• Metro: Portland-Vancouver-Hillsboro, OR-WA
• Population (ZIP): 24,293
• Household income: $101,832
• Rent vs Own: 27.2% rent · 72.8% own
• Severe rent burden: 575.0

Population outlook (Clackamas County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 458,456 people
• By 2030: 485,185 · +5.8%
• By 2040: 532,932 · +16.2%
• By 2050: 574,445 · +25.3%
• By 2075: 665,497 · +45.2%
• By 2100: 697,488 · +52.1%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (75%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 75% Hispanic / Latino 18% Two or more races 8% Asian 2%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 17%
• Common ancestry: Portuguese 4% Lithuanian 3% Italian 2%
• Foreign-born: 9% · Canada, Vietnam
• Languages at home: 83% English-only · Spanish 14% Russian/Polish/Slavic 1% Vietnamese 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Clackamas

• 2024 margin: Lean D (+9.7) · D 53.4% · R 43.6% · Other 3.0%
• 2008→2024 swing: -0.6pp no change · 2008: 10.4pp · 2024: 9.7pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+9.7 2020: D+11.1 2016: D+6.1 2012: D+3.5 2008: D+10.4

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -427.87%
• Current HPI: 287.758
• Rent YoY: ▲ 1.89%
• Metro: Portland-Vancouver-Hillsboro, OR-WA
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.05%
• F500 in state: 2

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in OR)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Consumer Goods	1	$51B

Price history

+0.0% since first listed

2 events — show timeline

• 2026-03-03 Listed $163,000 WVMLS
• 2026-02-12 Listed $163,000 RMLS

Property tax history

+3.1%/yr

Latest (2025): $819 · +2.8% YoY. Source: county tax records.