1173 Carnation Dr · Crowley, TX 76036

$285,990

3 bd · 2.5 ba · 1,711 sqft · Townhouse · 18 Days on market

Built 2026 2,178 sqft lot $167/sqft · 24% below area Est $375k · 24% under $345/mo HOA · 16% of rent

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Why this score? — see what drove the D- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• Cash flow +7.5/30.0
• Livability +3.8/5.0
• Rent growth +3.1/5.0
• 1% rule +2.6/10.0
• Schools +2.5/10.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• DSCR +1.7/10.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Jenna Old-World: Sophisticated 2 Story Townhouse Floor Plan floor plan highlights: 2 Car Garage, Open-Concept Living, Abundant Natural Light, 2nd Floor Laundry, and more! Introducing the Jenna Old World Floor Plan townhouse, an enchanting 3-bedroom, 2.5-bathroom abode offering a remarkable 1,711 square feet of living space. This two-story marvel stands poised for sale, ready to embrace you as its new homeowner. Step inside to discover a harmoniously integrated open floor plan, seamlessly merging the living, kitchen, and dining areas on the first floor. Revel in the comfort of abundant natural light flooding the living space, while the U-shaped kitchen boasts a spacious walk-in pantry, inviting culinary adventures and ample storage. The owner's entry from the rear two-car garage adds a touch of convenience to your daily routine, ensuring effortless transitions from car to home.

Key facts

• Open floor plan
• Rear two-car garage
• Second-floor laundry

Tags

• OPEN FLOOR PLAN
• WALK-IN PANTRY
• REAR TWO-CAR GARAGE
• SECOND-FLOOR LAUNDRY
• PRIMARY SUITE
• WALK-IN CLOSET

Property features AI

Finance

• Financial info: Treat As Clear loan type; No second mortgage
• HOA & community: Mandatory association (Karis community); Association fee $345 monthly; HOA managed by CCMC; Association covers full use of facilities, insurance, grounds maintenance, and water

Exterior

• Parking: Attached 2-car garage; 2 covered parking spaces; Driveway
• Utilities: City water; City sewer; No municipal utility district
• Home design: Townhouse; Residential property; Two levels; New construction (incomplete as of listing)
• Construction: Brick construction; Composition roof; Slab foundation; Year built 2026
• Exterior features: Condo/townhome lot; Located in the Karis subdivision

Interior

• Kitchen: Dishwasher; Garbage disposal; Gas range; Microwave
• Bedrooms: 3 bedrooms; Primary bedroom on second floor
• Flooring: Carpet; Ceramic tile; Laminate
• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms and 1 half bathroom (3 total)
• Heating & cooling: Central air conditioning; Natural gas heating
• Interior features: Open floorplan; Pantry; One living area; One dining area; Room count listed as 2

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.5-bath townhouse listed at $286k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-352 ($-4k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $224k (21.8% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $218k (23.8% below list).
• Recommended offer: $218k (23.8% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 76/100 on livability (#103 in TX, #3,462 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, health & safety A+; Watch: amenities F, commute F.
• Crowley ISD (urban): math 23% / reading 32% proficiency, ranked #643 of 826 in TX (top 78%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover.
• Zoned schools: S H Crowley El (math 27% / reading 27%, grade F, #2,791 of 4,322 statewide, top 68%, 512 students, 66% FRL); H F Stevens Middle (math 16% / reading 26%, grade F, #1,387 of 1,662 statewide, top 85%, 747 students, 84% FRL); Crowley H S (math 23% / reading 36%, grade F, #1,112 of 1,632 statewide, top 70%, 2,351 students, 72% FRL) — zoned schools average 74% FRL vs 52% district-wide (22 pts higher); higher-poverty schools than district average — tighter screening recommended.
• Market conditions: Rents rising (+2.3%/yr); 1036 active listings in the ZIP; 40 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 24d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); solid renter incomes; 18,938 units permitted in Tarrant County in 2024 (8,336 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $9k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Tarrant County population projected at +41% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 18 days — a 2% lower offer ($282k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 2 sale attempts with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: major wind risk, 27% chance of damaging wind over 30y; moderate wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→23/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $217,942 (23.8% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
5. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.76% ✗
• Cap rate: 4.82%
• Cash-on-cash: -5.28%
• DSCR: 0.77
• GRM: 10.9

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $374,706
• List price: $285,990
• Delta: -24.21%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
1145 Carnation Dr	0.03mi	3/2.5	1,711 (0%)	1mo	$275,990	$161	98
1109 Carnation Dr	0.07mi	3/2.5	1,710 (-0%)	6mo	$287,990	$168	92
1129 Carnation Dr	0.05mi	3/2.5	1,689 (-1%)	10mo	$293,275	$174	87
1149 Carnation Dr	0.03mi	2/2.5 (-1)	1,592 (-7%)	1mo	$263,990	$166	81
1105 Carnation Dr	0.08mi	2/2.5 (-1)	1,592 (-7%)	4mo	$269,990	$170	76
1081 Carnation Dr	0.11mi	3/2.5	1,688 (-1%)	21mo	$298,476	$177	75
1133 Carnation Dr	0.05mi	2/2.5 (-1)	1,569 (-8%)	6mo	$275,990	$176	74
1117 Carnation Dr	0.07mi	2/2.5 (-1)	1,592 (-7%)	8mo	$277,990	$175	74
1049 Carnation Dr	0.15mi	3/2.5	1,688 (-1%)	21mo	$305,634	$181	73
1089 Carnation Dr	0.11mi	2/2.5 (-1)	1,568 (-8%)	13mo	$257,520	$164	65
1085 Carnation Dr	0.11mi	3/2.5	1,844 (+8%)	21mo	$311,974	$169	65
1069 Carnation Dr	0.13mi	2/2.5 (-1)	1,568 (-8%)	14mo	$275,403	$176	63

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 2.28% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -26.1%
• Equity multiple: 0.12×
• Total profit: $-70,245
• Equity at exit: $42,642

10-year hold

• IRR: -25.4%
• Equity multiple: -0.20×
• Total profit: $-96,010
• Equity at exit: $24,727

Cash invested: $80,077 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 76036

• Home prices YoY: -25.2%
• Rents YoY: 2.3%
• Active inventory: 1036
• Price-to-rent: 10.9×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,179 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,500
• Tax from tax record: −$110 /mo · $1,319/yr
• Insurance: −$119
• HOA: −$345
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$458
• Net cashflow: $-352

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,625

Max offer price $223,784

Occupancy floor —

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $-190	-5% $-271	+0% $-352	+5% $-433	+10% $-514
Rent	-10% $-524	-5% $-438	+0% $-352	+5% $-266	+10% $-180
Rate	-1.0pp $-208	-0.5pp $-279	base $-352	+0.5pp $-426	+1.0pp $-502

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $71,498
• Closing costs: $8,580
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 40 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
221 Arnold St Crowley, TX	3.0	2.0	1266	$1,695	$1.34	6d	1	0.81mi
1013 Verde Valley Ln Crowley, TX	4.0	2.5	2225	$2,400	$1.08	26d	1	0.84mi
2531 Braford Dr Crowley, TX	2.0	2.0	1200	$1,600	$1.33	26d	1	0.85mi
1032 Verde Valley Ln Crowley, TX	3.0	2.5	2145	$2,400	$1.12	20d	1	0.90mi
316 Quail Creek Dr Crowley, TX	3.0	2.0	1317	$1,683	$1.28	14d	1	0.93mi
4004 Arklow St Crowley, TX	4.0	2.0	1668	$2,200	$1.32	6d	1	0.93mi
4004 Arklow St Crowley, TX	4.0	2.0	1668	$2,200	$1.32	26d	1	0.93mi
4013 Drifters Bend Dr Crowley, TX	4.0	2.0	1667	$2,200	$1.32	45d	1	0.96mi
4052 Dublin Ridge Dr Crowley, TX	3.0	2.0	1464	$1,895	$1.29	23d	1	0.98mi
1312 Hunters Ridge Dr Crowley, TX	4.0	3.0	2155	$2,700	$1.25	11d	1	1.02mi
552 Kerry St Crowley, TX	3.0	2.0	1636	$2,295	$1.40	3d	1	1.03mi
121 S Hampton Rd Crowley, TX	1.0–2.0	1.0–2.0	909	$1,675	$1.84	0d	9	1.04mi
705 Loftin St Crowley, TX	3.0	2.0	1514	$2,200	$1.45	45d	1	1.06mi
708 E Prairie View Rd Crowley, TX	3.0	1.5	1080	$1,750	$1.62	14d	1	1.07mi
209 E Eller Ave Crowley, TX	4.0	2.0	1978	$2,200	$1.11	14d	1	1.09mi
625 Hutchins Dr Crowley, TX	3.0	2.0	1357	$1,885	$1.39	45d	1	1.09mi
109 N Heights Dr Crowley, TX	3.0	2.0	1284	$1,945	$1.51	26d	1	1.10mi
405 Bryan Dr Crowley, TX	3.0	2.0	1343	$1,795	$1.34	26d	1	1.11mi
521 Mesquite Ave Crowley, TX	3.0	2.0	1400	$1,900	$1.36	26d	1	1.13mi
824 E Prairie View Rd Crowley, TX	3.0	2.0	1120	$1,795	$1.60	45d	1	1.15mi
4224 Old Timber Ln Crowley, TX	3.0	2.0	2092	$2,250	$1.08	45d	1	1.16mi
701 E Mission St Crowley, TX	3.0	1.0	1323	$1,460	$1.10	26d	1	1.17mi
9125 Nevis Dr Fort Worth, TX	3.0	2.0	1497	$2,159	$1.44	0d	1	1.18mi
304 S Magnolia St Apt D Crowley, TX	3.0	2.0	1064	$1,300	$1.22	0d	1	1.18mi
708 Cheryl St Crowley, TX	3.0	2.0	1659	$2,100	$1.27	20d	1	1.19mi
509 S Beverly St Unit 3 Crowley, TX	2.0	1.5	1136	$1,350	$1.19	0d	1	1.19mi
9512 Carson Ranch Rd Crowley, TX	4.0	2.0	1782	$2,995	$1.68	23d	1	1.19mi
305 Wilson St Crowley, TX	2.0	2.0	1400	$1,950	$1.39	26d	1	1.22mi
720 Watson Way Crowley, TX	3.0	2.0	1782	$2,095	$1.18	45d	1	1.24mi
4156 Summersweet Ln Crowley, TX	3.0	2.0	1307	$1,900	$1.45	45d	1	1.24mi
4201 Summersweet Ln Crowley, TX	3.0	2.0	1398	$1,960	$1.40	14d	1	1.25mi
4148 Crooked Bend Dr Crowley, TX	3.0	2.0	1450	$2,100	$1.45	14d	1	1.25mi
4148 Crooked Bend Dr Crowley, TX	3.0	2.0	1469	$2,100	$1.43	26d	1	1.25mi
4213 Dublin Ridge Dr Crowley, TX	3.0	2.0	1553	$2,050	$1.32	4d	1	1.25mi
3408 Saint Vincent Rd Fort Worth, TX	3.0	2.0	1400	$2,195	$1.57	45d	1	1.26mi
3416 Saint Vincent Rd Fort Worth, TX	3.0	3.0	2033	$1,895	$0.93	45d	1	1.27mi
404 Canoe Way Crowley, TX	4.0	2.0	1827	$2,195	$1.20	21d	1	1.27mi
9165 Abaco Way Fort Worth, TX	4.0	2.0	1705	$2,095	$1.23	0d	1	1.29mi
4216 Summersweet Ln Crowley, TX	3.0	2.0	1636	$2,129	$1.30	0d	1	1.29mi
9157 Abaco Way Fort Worth, TX	4.0	2.0	1705	$2,089	$1.23	26d	1	1.29mi

HOA detail

• Monthly dues: $345 · $4,140/yr

Listing history 17 events

1. 2026-06-21
   days on market $285,990 Active 18 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   days on market $285,990 Active 15 DOM
3. 2026-06-17
   days on market $285,990 Active 14 DOM
4. 2026-06-16
   days on market $285,990 Active 13 DOM
5. 2026-06-15
   days on market $285,990 Active 12 DOM
6. 2026-06-13
   days on market $285,990 Active 10 DOM
7. 2026-06-13
   days on market $285,990 Active 9 DOM
8. 2026-06-09
   days on market $285,990 Active 6 DOM
9. 2026-06-08
   days on market $285,990 Active 5 DOM
10. 2026-06-07
    days on market $285,990 Active 4 DOM
11. 2026-06-04
    days on marketlisting id $285,990 Active 1 DOM
12. 2026-06-03
    days on market $285,990 Active 27 DOM
13. 2026-06-02
    pricedays on market $285,990 Active 26 DOM

    Show marketing remark (889 chars)

    Jenna Old-World: Sophisticated 2 Story Townhouse Floor Plan floor plan highlights: 2 Car Garage, Open-Concept Living, Abundant Natural Light, 2nd Floor Laundry, and more! Introducing the Jenna Old World Floor Plan townhouse, an enchanting 3-bedroom, 2.5-bathroom abode offering a remarkable 1,711 square feet of living space. This two-story marvel stands poised for sale, ready to embrace you as its new homeowner. Step inside to discover a harmoniously integrated open floor plan, seamlessly merging the living, kitchen, and dining areas on the first floor. Revel in the comfort of abundant natural light flooding the living space, while the U-shaped kitchen boasts a spacious walk-in pantry, inviting culinary adventures and ample storage. The owner's entry from the rear two-car garage adds a touch of convenience to your daily routine, ensuring effortless transitions from car to home.

14. 2026-06-01
    days on market $283,990 Active 25 DOM
15. 2026-05-31
    days on market $283,990 Active 24 DOM
16. 2026-05-08
    price $283,990 889-char remark

    Show marketing remark (889 chars)

    Jenna Old-World: Sophisticated 2 Story Townhouse Floor Plan floor plan highlights: 2 Car Garage, Open-Concept Living, Abundant Natural Light, 2nd Floor Laundry, and more! Introducing the Jenna Old World Floor Plan townhouse, an enchanting 3-bedroom, 2.5-bathroom abode offering a remarkable 1,711 square feet of living space. This two-story marvel stands poised for sale, ready to embrace you as its new homeowner. Step inside to discover a harmoniously integrated open floor plan, seamlessly merging the living, kitchen, and dining areas on the first floor. Revel in the comfort of abundant natural light flooding the living space, while the U-shaped kitchen boasts a spacious walk-in pantry, inviting culinary adventures and ample storage. The owner's entry from the rear two-car garage adds a touch of convenience to your daily routine, ensuring effortless transitions from car to home.

17. 2026-05-07
    listed $281,990 Active 889-char remark

    Show marketing remark (889 chars)

    Jenna Old-World: Sophisticated 2 Story Townhouse Floor Plan floor plan highlights: 2 Car Garage, Open-Concept Living, Abundant Natural Light, 2nd Floor Laundry, and more! Introducing the Jenna Old World Floor Plan townhouse, an enchanting 3-bedroom, 2.5-bathroom abode offering a remarkable 1,711 square feet of living space. This two-story marvel stands poised for sale, ready to embrace you as its new homeowner. Step inside to discover a harmoniously integrated open floor plan, seamlessly merging the living, kitchen, and dining areas on the first floor. Revel in the comfort of abundant natural light flooding the living space, while the U-shaped kitchen boasts a spacious walk-in pantry, inviting culinary adventures and ample storage. The owner's entry from the rear two-car garage adds a touch of convenience to your daily routine, ensuring effortless transitions from car to home.

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast TX · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $1,319 · $110/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $5,234 · $436/mo
• Expected delta: +$3,914/yr (+$326/mo · 296.6%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 5/10 Major
• 🌡 Heat 7/10 Severe 7 d/yr ≥108°F today · 23 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 6/10 Major 27% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 3/10 Moderate 2 unhealthy d/yr today · 3 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $26,153
• − Mortgage interest: −$16,020
• − Property taxes: −$1,319
• − Insurance: −$1,430
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,092
• − Management: −$2,092
• − HOA: −$4,140
• − Depreciation: −$8,320
• Taxable loss: −$9,260
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$2,222
• After-tax cash flow: $-2,003/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Crowley ISD
• NCES district ID: 4815910
• Math proficiency: 23% ▼ -15.00%
• Reading proficiency: 32% ▼ -6.00%
• Median HH income: $59,810
• Composite: 25.04/100
• National rank: #7549
• State rank: #643 of 826 in TX

Livability — Crowley

• Score: 76/100
• State rank: #103
• US rank: #3462

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime B+ Employment B+ Housing A+ Health & safety A+ User ratings B

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Crowley, TX
• County: Tarrant County · 2,033,669 people
• City population: 36,044
• Metro: Dallas-Fort Worth-Arlington, TX
• Population (ZIP): 36,044
• Household income: $97,973
• Rent vs Own: 23.7% rent · 76.3% own
• Severe rent burden: 584.0

Population outlook (Tarrant County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 2,380,417 people
• By 2030: 2,578,900 · +8.3%
• By 2040: 2,974,995 · +25.0%
• By 2050: 3,350,489 · +40.8%
• By 2075: 4,216,909 · +77.2%
• By 2100: 4,741,527 · +99.2%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.65)
• Race & ethnicity: White 48% Hispanic / Latino 28% Black 20% Two or more races 14% Asian 2%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 23% Puerto Rican 2%
• Common ancestry: Slovak 3% Italian 2% Serbian 1%
• Foreign-born: 8% · Canada, Vietnam
• Languages at home: 79% English-only · Spanish 18% Other Indo-European 1% Vietnamese 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Tarrant

• 2024 margin: Lean R (+5.1) · D 46.7% · R 51.9% · Other 1.4%
• 2008→2024 swing: +6.6pp toward D · 2008: -11.7pp · 2024: -5.1pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+5.1 2020: D+0.2 2016: R+8.7 2012: R+15.7 2008: R+11.7

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -80.45%
• Current HPI: 238.6365
• Rent YoY: ▲ 2.28%
• Metro: Dallas-Fort Worth-Arlington, TX
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Price history

+1.4% since first listed

4 events — show timeline

• 2026-06-03 Listed $285,990 NTREIS
• 2026-06-02 Price Changed $285,990 Zillow
• 2026-05-08 Price Changed $283,990 Zillow
• 2026-05-07 Listed $281,990 Zillow

Property tax history

-8.5%/yr

Latest (2025): $1,319 · -16.0% YoY. Source: county tax records.