204 N 3rd St · Drayton, ND 58225

$85,000

5 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,470 sqft · Other · 138 Days on market

Built 1900 7,500 sqft lot

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Why this score? — see what drove the B+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +30.0/30.0
• 1% rule +10.0/10.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• Appreciation +9.7/10.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Schools +3.4/10.0
• Livability +3.4/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0

Listing remarks MLS

3 bed 1 3/4 bath, possible 4th bedroom. One block from the park/pool. Fenced backyard.

Key facts

• Heated shop
• Front porch
• Back patio

Tags

• FRONT PORCH
• BACK PATIO
• HEATED SHOP

Property features AI

Exterior

• Utilities: Public water; Natural gas available
• Home design: Single-family residence; One and one-half story
• Construction: Block foundation
• Exterior features: Patio; Wood fencing, fenced yard

Interior

• Bathrooms: 1 full bathroom; 1 three-quarter bathroom
• Heating & cooling: Forced air heating (natural gas); Cooling system present
• Interior features: 11 total rooms

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 5-bed/2.0-bath other listed at $85k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $436 ($5k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($1k rent vs $85k).
• Recommended offer: $75k (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 68/100 on livability (#113 in ND) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, employment B+; Watch: crime C-, health & safety D+, amenities F.
• Drayton 19 (rural): math 35% / reading 35% proficiency, ranked #126 of 169 in ND (top 75%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: Drayton Elementary School (math 37% / reading 32%, grade F, #162 of 236 statewide, top 73%, 130 students, 37% FRL); Drayton High School (math 24% / reading 24%, grade F, #108 of 144 statewide, top 88%, 46 students, 37% FRL) — zoned schools at 37% FRL track the district average.
• Market conditions: 3 active listings in the ZIP; 2 units permitted in Pembina County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $9k of equity ($588 loan paydown + $8k appreciation (9.3% local appreciation)).
• Pembina County population projected at -23% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• At projected returns (9.3% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $24k cash investment doubles in ~2 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
• By year 4, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$30k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 138 days — a 12% lower offer ($75k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 2 sale attempts since 12y ago; this cycle's ask has dropped $15k (15%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.
• Current owner paid $52k; list at $85k implies a 62% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: built in 1900 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.

Recommended offer $74,800 (12.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 138 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Built in 1900 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
3. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.56% ✓
• Cap rate: 12.45%
• Cash-on-cash: 21.99%
• DSCR: 1.98
• GRM: 5.3

CMA / ARV

No comps found within radius.

Projected returns pro-forma

9.34% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 39.7%
• Equity multiple: 3.95×
• Total profit: $70,316
• Equity at exit: $72,539

10-year hold

• IRR: 34.6%
• Equity multiple: 8.75×
• Total profit: $184,428
• Equity at exit: $152,330

Cash invested: $23,800 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 82 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State North Dakota: 82 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+20
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; landlord-friendly.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 58225

• Home prices YoY: 8.5%
• Active inventory: 3
• Price-to-rent: 5.3×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,329 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$446
• Tax from tax record: −$133 /mo · $1,593/yr
• Insurance: −$35
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$279
• Net cashflow: $436

Break-even live

Break-even rent $777

Max offer price $85,000

Occupancy floor 62%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $484	-5% $460	+0% $436	+5% $412	+10% $388
Rent	-10% $331	-5% $384	+0% $436	+5% $489	+10% $541
Rate	-1.0pp $479	-0.5pp $458	base $436	+0.5pp $414	+1.0pp $392

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $21,250
• Closing costs: $2,550
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 9 events

1. 2026-06-02
   days on market $85,000 Active 138 DOM
2. 2026-06-01
   days on market $85,000 Active 137 DOM
3. 2026-05-31
   days on market $85,000 Active 136 DOM
4. 2026-04-09
   price $85,000
5. 2026-01-15
   listed $100,000 Active
6. 2014-12-11
   soldstatus $52,500
7. 2014-12-05
   soldstatus 86-char remark

   Show marketing remark (86 chars)

   3 bed 1 3/4 bath, possible 4th bedroom. One block from the park/pool. Fenced backyard.

8. 2014-08-04
   listed $54,000 86-char remark

   Show marketing remark (86 chars)

   3 bed 1 3/4 bath, possible 4th bedroom. One block from the park/pool. Fenced backyard.

9. 2009-04-02
   soldstatus

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast ND · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $1,593 · $133/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $1,593 · $133/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 4/10 Moderate FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 20% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 3/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 2/10 Low 7 d/yr ≥96°F today · 12 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 1/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 4/10 Moderate 5 unhealthy d/yr today · 5 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $15,951
• − Mortgage interest: −$4,761
• − Property taxes: −$1,593
• − Insurance: −$425
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,276
• − Management: −$1,276
• − Depreciation: −$2,473
• Taxable income: $4,146
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$995
• After-tax cash flow: $4,239/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Drayton 19
• NCES district ID: 3805340
• Math proficiency: 35% ▼ -10.00%
• Reading proficiency: 35% ▬ 0.00%
• Median HH income: $56,487
• Composite: 33.6/100
• National rank: #10486
• State rank: #126 of 169 in ND

Livability — Drayton

• Score: 68/100
• State rank: #113
• US rank: #9891

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime C- Employment B+ Housing A+ Health & safety D+ User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Drayton, ND
• Population (ZIP): 1,146

Population outlook (Pembina County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 6,414 people
• By 2030: 6,060 · -5.5%
• By 2040: 5,383 · -16.1%
• By 2050: 4,925 · -23.2%
• By 2075: 5,025 · -21.7%
• By 2100: 6,293 · -1.9%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (96%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 96% Two or more races 3%
• Common ancestry: Portuguese 28% Romanian 8% Scottish 7%
• Foreign-born: 1% · Canada
• Languages at home: 98% English-only · Other Indo-European 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Pembina

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+53.3) · D 22.8% · R 76.1% · Other 1.1%
• 2008→2024 swing: -46.4pp toward R · 2008: -6.9pp · 2024: -53.3pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+53.3 2020: R+50.2 2016: R+49.2 2012: R+20.1 2008: R+6.9

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 9.34%
• Current HPI: 119.7326
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.09%
• F500 in state: 2

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in ND)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Utilities / Construction	1	$6B

Price history

+57.4% since first listed

6 events — show timeline

• 2026-04-09 Price Changed $85,000 GFAAR
• 2026-01-15 Listed $100,000 GFAAR
• 2014-12-11 Sold (Public Records) $52,500 Public Records
• 2014-12-05 Sold (MLS) — GFAAR
• 2014-08-04 Listed $54,000 GFAAR
• 2009-04-02 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records

Property tax history

+15.5%/yr

Latest (2025): $1,593 · +5.6% YoY. Source: county tax records.