3 Celia Dr · Rochester Institute of Technology, NY 14623

$199,000

4 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,720 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 8 Days on market

Built 1939 7,500 sqft lot Est $325k · 39% under

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Why this score? — see what drove the C grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +18.4/30.0
• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• 1% rule +6.2/10.0
• DSCR +5.8/10.0
• Schools +5.2/10.0
• Rent growth +4.0/5.0
• Livability +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

This storybook charmer has four bedrooms and two full baths (one on each floor). There is a kitchen, formal dining room and generous living room. Beautiful hardwood floors invite the sun to dance in from all directions. The foyer is also a suitable space for a small den or home office with built-ins and one-of-a kind carpet. Conveniently located just a walk or bike ride from RIT. Right size back yard with a mature tree and currently blooming Forsythia. Vinyl replacement windows, new composite siding (2015) New garage roof (2018), House roof (2015). HVAC is h/e and hot water tank is electric. Great bones, all appliances stay, spacious lot, convenient location. .. just needs your finishes. De

Key facts

• Formal dining room
• Foyer
• Den or home office

Tags

• KITCHEN
• FORMAL DINING ROOM
• LIVING ROOM
• HARDWOOD FLOORS
• FOYER
• DEN OR HOME OFFICE

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 4-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $199k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $186 ($2k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $199k).
• Cap rate 7.4% vs local median 3.8% in Rochester Institute of Technology — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads: area grade C — affects rentability + tenant quality, not the cash-flow math above.
• Rush-Henrietta Central School District (suburban): math 62% / reading 57% proficiency, ranked #237 of 590 in NY (top 40%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Market conditions: Rents rising fast (+6.1%/yr); 48 active listings in the ZIP; 2 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; 1,169 units permitted in Monroe County in 2024 (591 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 41% of the median local income ($65k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $6k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Monroe County population projected to shrink 6% by 2050 — rents likely to lag national; underwrite the cash flow, not the appreciation.

Negotiation context

• Only 8 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: property tax is 2.7% of price; built in 1939 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.

Recommended offer $199,000

Questions for the listing agent

1. Built in 1939 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
2. Property tax is high relative to price — has the assessment been appealed recently, and will the sale trigger a re-assessment?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
5. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
6. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.12% ✓
• Cap rate: 7.41%
• Cash-on-cash: 4.01%
• DSCR: 1.18
• GRM: 7.4

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $325,080
• Comps found: 8

Show comp detail 8 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
3 Celia Dr	0.00mi	4/2.0	1,720 (0%)	1mo	$260,000	$151	99
48 Chester Ave	0.52mi	4/2.0	1,724 (+0%)	0mo	$230,000	$133	75
3215 E River Rd	0.05mi	3/1.5 (-1)	1,515 (-12%)	9mo	$210,000	$139	63
15 Chesapeake Lndg	0.63mi	3/2.5 (-1)	1,786 (+4%)	9mo	$338,000	$189	50
48 Chesapeake Lndg	0.53mi	4/2.5	1,878 (+9%)	20mo	$360,000	$192	42
19 York Bay	0.59mi	3/2.5 (-1)	1,810 (+5%)	19mo	$357,000	$197	41
158 River Meadow Dr	0.39mi	5/1.5 (+1)	1,512 (-12%)	21mo	$227,000	$150	37
59 York Bay	0.71mi	3/2.5 (-1)	1,584 (-8%)	20mo	$355,000	$224	30

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 6.06% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -6.1%
• Equity multiple: 0.76×
• Total profit: $-13,142
• Equity at exit: $29,672

10-year hold

• IRR: 7.3%
• Equity multiple: 1.64×
• Total profit: $35,473
• Equity at exit: $17,206

Cash invested: $55,720 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 15 Strongly Tenant-Friendly
• State New York: 15 Strongly Tenant-Friendly · D+10
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

NYC rent stabilization (~1M units); 2019 HSTPA strengthened tenant rights; courts deeply backlogged.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 14623

• Rents YoY: 6.1%
• Active inventory: 48
• Price-to-rent: 7.4×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,236 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,044
• Tax from tax record: −$454 /mo · $5,452/yr
• Insurance: −$83
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$470
• Net cashflow: $186

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,001

Max offer price $199,000

Occupancy floor 87%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $49,750
• Closing costs: $5,970
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 2 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
24 Fairwood Dr Rochester, NY	1.0–5.0	1.0–5.0	1184	$1,364	$1.15	2d	6	1.20mi
3948 E River Rd West Henrietta, NY	1.0–6.0	1.0–4.0	1974	$1,239	$0.63	2d	23	1.20mi

Listing history 2 events

1. 2026-04-14
   status Pending
2. 2026-04-06
   listed $199,000 Active

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast NY · Partial reset (capped growth)

• Current annual tax: $5,452 · $454/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $5,452 · $454/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 3/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 2/10 Low 7 d/yr ≥95°F today · 15 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 1/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 1 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $26,838
• − Mortgage interest: −$11,147
• − Property taxes: −$5,452
• − Insurance: −$995
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,147
• − Management: −$2,147
• − Depreciation: −$5,789
• Taxable loss: −$839
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$201
• After-tax cash flow: $2,434/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Rush-Henrietta Central School District
• NCES district ID: 3625170
• Math proficiency: 62% ▼ -6.00%
• Reading proficiency: 57% ▲ 1.00%
• Median HH income: $58,682
• Composite: 51.52/100
• National rank: #1720
• State rank: #237 of 590 in NY

Livability — Rochester Institute of Technology

No livability data for this city. (Only ~50 U.S. cities are tracked.)

Census & demographics

• County: Monroe County · 674,131 people
• Metro: Rochester, NY
• Population (ZIP): 26,032
• Household income: $65,342
• Rent vs Own: 49.4% rent · 50.6% own
• Severe rent burden: 1161.0

Population outlook (Monroe County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 759,460 people
• By 2030: 757,154 · -0.3%
• By 2040: 740,644 · -2.5%
• By 2050: 714,443 · -5.9%
• By 2075: 645,883 · -15.0%
• By 2100: 547,084 · -28.0%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (67%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 67% Asian 15% Black 8% Two or more races 6% Hispanic / Latino 6%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Puerto Rican 3%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 4% Iranian 2% Lithuanian 2%
• Foreign-born: 14% · China, Canada, Vietnam
• Languages at home: 84% English-only · Chinese 4% Other Indo-European 3% Spanish 2%

Political lean MEDSL · Monroe

• 2024 margin: D (+19.1) · D 59.5% · R 40.5%
• 2008→2024 swing: +1.4pp toward D · 2008: 17.7pp · 2024: 19.1pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+19.1 2020: D+21.0 2016: D+14.1 2012: D+17.4 2008: D+17.7

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -180.68%
• Current HPI: 262.8187
• Rent YoY: ▲ 6.06%
• Metro: Rochester, NY
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.60%
• F500 in state: 92

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in NY)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Financial Services	10	$950B
▸Consumer Goods	9	$162B
▸Insurance	4	$225B
▸Telecommunications	2	$144B
▸Pharmaceuticals	2	$112B
▸Media / Entertainment	2	$69B

Price history

2 events — show timeline

• 2026-04-14 Pending — UNYREIS
• 2026-04-06 Listed $199,000 UNYREIS

Property tax history

+5.4%/yr

Latest (2025): $5,452 · +31.7% YoY. Source: county tax records.