90 Southwinds Dr · Gulf Gate, FL 34231

$39,000

1 bd · 1.0 ba · 449 sqft · Manufactured public records · 8 Days on market

Built 1968 3,123 sqft lot $195/mo HOA · 12% of rent

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Why this score? — see what drove the D grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +15.0/30.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Schools +5.4/10.0
• 1% rule +5.0/10.0
• DSCR +5.0/10.0
• Livability +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Rent growth +2.0/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

Charming 1 bed, 1.5 bath mobile home in a desirable 55+ community just 1 mile from Siesta Beach. Features include a Florida room, laundry room, updated windows, paved driveway, and HVAC replaced approximately 2 years ago. Community amenities include a heated saltwater pool, library, community center, and low HOA fee of $195/month.

Key facts

• Hvac replaced
• Laundry room
• Updated windows

Tags

• FLORIDA ROOM
• LAUNDRY ROOM
• UPDATED WINDOWS
• PAVED DRIVEWAY
• HVAC REPLACED
• HEATED SALTWATER POOL

Property features AI

Finance

• Financial info: Total monthly community fees $195 (total annual $2,340)
• HOA & community: HOA required with monthly fee of $195; Association amenities include clubhouse, pool, and shuffleboard court; Association fee includes pool access, grounds maintenance, and recreational facilities; Association approval required; Senior community; Pets allowed

Exterior

• Utilities: Public water; Public sewer; Electricity connected
• Home design: Mobile home (single wide); One story; North-facing
• Construction: Vinyl siding; Metal roof; Other foundation
• Exterior features: Paved road access

Interior

• Kitchen: Other appliances
• Bedrooms: 1 bedroom
• Flooring: Vinyl flooring
• Bathrooms: 1 full bathroom; 1 half bathroom
• Heating & cooling: No central heating; Wall/window air conditioning unit(s)
• Interior features: Living room and dining room combined
• Laundry & utility: No laundry hookups in unit

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 1-bed/1.0-bath manufactured listed at $39k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $806 ($10k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $39k).

Location & tenants

• Location reads: area grade D — affects rentability + tenant quality, not the cash-flow math above.
• Sarasota (urban): math 63% / reading 63% proficiency, ranked #7 of 73 in FL (top 10%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Market conditions: Rents soft (-2.1%/yr); 562 active listings in the ZIP; 7,466 units permitted in Sarasota County in 2024 (2,138 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $270 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $1k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Sarasota County population projected at +20% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 0.0% rent growth), your $11k cash investment doubles in ~2 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• Only 8 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→27/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $39,000

Questions for the listing agent

1. Built in 1968 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
2. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
5. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
6. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
7. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 4.19% ✓
• Cap rate: 31.09%
• Cash-on-cash: 88.55%
• DSCR: 4.94
• GRM: 2.0

CMA / ARV

No comps found within radius.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 0.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 85.1%
• Equity multiple: 4.70×
• Total profit: $40,372
• Equity at exit: $5,815

10-year hold

• IRR: 87.5%
• Equity multiple: 8.63×
• Total profit: $83,372
• Equity at exit: $3,372

Cash invested: $10,920 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Florida: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+3
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day pay-or-quit; preempts local rent control; landlord-friendly statutes. Court speed varies by county.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 34231

• Rents YoY: -2.1%
• Active inventory: 562
• Price-to-rent: 2.0×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,634 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$205
• Tax from tax record: −$70 /mo · $834/yr
• Insurance: −$16
• HOA: −$195
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$343
• Net cashflow: $806

Break-even live

Break-even rent $614

Max offer price $39,000

Occupancy floor 46%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $828	-5% $817	+0% $806	+5% $795	+10% $784
Rent	-10% $677	-5% $741	+0% $806	+5% $870	+10% $935
Rate	-1.0pp $825	-0.5pp $816	base $806	+0.5pp $796	+1.0pp $785

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $9,750
• Closing costs: $1,170
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

HOA detail

• Monthly dues: $195 · $2,340/yr
• Likely covers: waterpool

Listing history 7 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $39,000 Active 8 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $39,000 Active 7 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $39,000 Active 6 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   days on market $39,000 Active 5 DOM
5. 2026-06-13
   days on market $39,000 Active 3 DOM
6. 2026-06-13
   remarks 332-char remark
7. 2026-06-13
   listed $39,000 Active 2 DOM

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast FL · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $834 · $70/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $834 · $70/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 3/10 Moderate FEMA zone X (shaded) · 10% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 10/10 Extreme 7 d/yr ≥107°F today · 27 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 10/10 Extreme 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 1 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $19,612
• − Mortgage interest: −$2,185
• − Property taxes: −$834
• − Insurance: −$195
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,569
• − Management: −$1,569
• − HOA: −$2,340
• − Depreciation: −$1,135
• Taxable income: $9,786
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$2,349
• After-tax cash flow: $7,321/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Sarasota
• NCES district ID: 1201680
• Math proficiency: 63% ▼ -8.00%
• Reading proficiency: 63% ▼ -3.00%
• Median HH income: $51,167
• Composite: 53.68/100
• National rank: #1428
• State rank: #7 of 73 in FL

Livability — Gulf Gate

No livability data for this city. (Only ~50 U.S. cities are tracked.)

Census & demographics

• County: Sarasota County · 448,376 people
• City population: 32,203
• Metro: North Port-Sarasota-Bradenton, FL
• Population (ZIP): 32,404
• Household income: $69,925
• Rent vs Own: 35.3% rent · 64.7% own
• Severe rent burden: 1983.0

Population outlook (Sarasota County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 452,380 people
• By 2030: 474,175 · +4.8%
• By 2040: 511,577 · +13.1%
• By 2050: 541,467 · +19.7%
• By 2075: 604,947 · +33.7%
• By 2100: 621,965 · +37.5%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (86%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 86% Hispanic / Latino 10% Two or more races 7% Black 2%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 2%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 4% Slovak 3% Lithuanian 3%
• Foreign-born: 11% · Canada, Jamaica, China
• Languages at home: 88% English-only · Spanish 6% Russian/Polish/Slavic 2% German/W. Germanic 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Sarasota

• 2024 margin: R (+18.2) · D 40.5% · R 58.7%
• 2008→2024 swing: -18.1pp toward R · 2008: -0.1pp · 2024: -18.2pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+18.2 2020: R+10.4 2016: R+11.6 2012: R+7.4 2008: R+0.1

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -448.92%
• Current HPI: 292.9055
• Rent YoY: ▼ -2.13%
• Metro: North Port-Sarasota-Bradenton, FL
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.28%
• F500 in state: 36

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in FL)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Industrial Technology	2	$29B
▸Insurance	2	$17B
▸Retail	1	$60B
▸Technology Distribution	1	$58B
▸Homebuilding	1	$35B
▸Technology Manufacturing	1	$35B

Price history

+57.3% since first listed

4 events — show timeline

• 2026-06-09 Listed $39,000 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2015-08-13 Sold (Public Records) $51,000 Public Records
• 2013-03-22 Sold (Public Records) $55,000 Public Records
• 1997-04-16 Sold (Public Records) $24,800 Public Records

Property tax history

+1.0%/yr

Latest (2025): $834 · +3.9% YoY. Source: county tax records.