12608 Valverde Loop · Elmo, TX 75161

$209,000

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 924 sqft · Manufactured public records · 108 Days on market

Built 1990 1.88 ac lot $226/sqft · 19% above area Est $300k · 30% under ↓ 25% since listing

---

Why this score? — see what drove the C- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +18.1/30.0
• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• DSCR +5.7/10.0
• 1% rule +5.1/10.0
• Livability +2.9/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Schools +2.4/10.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

PRICE REDUCED! Home in a peaceful country setting on 1.88 acres. 3 bedroom, 2 full bath and large living area. Back deck and front porch re-built in 2024. Owner also added an above ground pool with pump for hot summers and a 10' x 20' outbuilding with electricity in 2024! Sheds and pavilion with dirt floor for storage or could be used as an outdoor seating area. Unfinished green house in back. Perimeter fencing with gates. Vegetable garden area is also fenced. Lots of trees on the back of property. Owner is selling in current condition...bring your vision! No HOA.

Key facts

• Perimeter fencing
• Front porch
• Above ground pool

Tags

• BACK DECK
• FRONT PORCH
• ABOVE GROUND POOL
• OUTBUILDING WITH ELECTRICITY
• PERIMETER FENCING
• VEGETABLE GARDEN

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath manufactured listed at $209k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $183 ($2k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $209k).
• Recommended offer: $190k (9.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 7.3% vs local median 2.9% in Elmo — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 57/100 on livability (#1,234 in TX) — a working-class tenant base; expect higher turnover. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, crime A; Watch: employment D, schools F, amenities F.
• Terrell ISD (town): math 25% / reading 30% proficiency, ranked #677 of 826 in TX (top 82%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover; 68% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Market conditions: 87 active listings in the ZIP; 1,747 units permitted in Kaufman County in 2024 (180 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $6k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Kaufman County population projected at +43% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 108 days — a 9% lower offer ($190k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 7 sale attempts since 4y ago; this cycle's ask has dropped $30k (13%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: major wind risk, 27% chance of damaging wind over 30y; moderate wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→24/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $190,190 (9.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 108 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 9% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
5. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
6. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
7. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.01% ✓
• Cap rate: 7.34%
• Cash-on-cash: 3.75%
• DSCR: 1.17
• GRM: 8.3

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $299,969
• List price: $209,000
• Delta: -30.33%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 5 within 1.0 mi

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -10.4%
• Equity multiple: 0.62×
• Total profit: $-22,152
• Equity at exit: $31,163

10-year hold

• IRR: -1.0%
• Equity multiple: 0.93×
• Total profit: $-4,047
• Equity at exit: $18,071

Cash invested: $58,520 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 75161

• Home prices YoY: -18.4%
• Active inventory: 87
• Price-to-rent: 8.3×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,111 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,096
• Tax from tax record: −$302 /mo · $3,619/yr
• Insurance: −$87
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$443
• Net cashflow: $183

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,879

Max offer price $209,000

Occupancy floor 86%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $52,250
• Closing costs: $6,270
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 49 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $209,000 Active 108 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $209,000 Active 107 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $209,000 Active 106 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   remarks 578-char remark
5. 2026-06-15
   price $209,000 Active 105 DOM
6. 2026-06-15
   days on market $219,900 Active 105 DOM
7. 2026-06-13
   days on market $219,900 Active 103 DOM
8. 2026-06-13
   days on market $219,900 Active 102 DOM
9. 2026-06-09
   days on market $219,900 Active 99 DOM
10. 2026-06-08
    days on market $219,900 Active 98 DOM
11. 2026-06-07
    days on market $219,900 Active 97 DOM
12. 2026-06-04
    days on market $219,900 Active 94 DOM
13. 2026-06-03
    days on market $219,900 Active 93 DOM
14. 2026-06-02
    days on market $219,900 Active 92 DOM
15. 2026-06-01
    days on market $219,900 Active 91 DOM
16. 2026-05-31
    days on market $219,900 Active 90 DOM
17. 2026-04-23
    price $219,900 570-char remark

    Show marketing remark (570 chars)

    PRICE REDUCED! Home in a peaceful country setting on 1.88 acres. 3 bedroom, 2 full bath and large living area. Back deck and front porch re-built in 2024. Owner also added an above ground pool with pump for hot summers and a 10' x 20' outbuilding with electricity in 2024! Sheds and pavilion with dirt floor for storage or could be used as an outdoor seating area. Unfinished green house in back. Perimeter fencing with gates. Vegetable garden area is also fenced. Lots of trees on the back of property. Owner is selling in current condition...bring your vision! No HOA.

18. 2026-04-16
    price $229,900 570-char remark

    Show marketing remark (570 chars)

    PRICE REDUCED! Home in a peaceful country setting on 1.88 acres. 3 bedroom, 2 full bath and large living area. Back deck and front porch re-built in 2024. Owner also added an above ground pool with pump for hot summers and a 10' x 20' outbuilding with electricity in 2024! Sheds and pavilion with dirt floor for storage or could be used as an outdoor seating area. Unfinished green house in back. Perimeter fencing with gates. Vegetable garden area is also fenced. Lots of trees on the back of property. Owner is selling in current condition...bring your vision! No HOA.

19. 2026-04-08
    price $233,000 570-char remark

    Show marketing remark (570 chars)

    PRICE REDUCED! Home in a peaceful country setting on 1.88 acres. 3 bedroom, 2 full bath and large living area. Back deck and front porch re-built in 2024. Owner also added an above ground pool with pump for hot summers and a 10' x 20' outbuilding with electricity in 2024! Sheds and pavilion with dirt floor for storage or could be used as an outdoor seating area. Unfinished green house in back. Perimeter fencing with gates. Vegetable garden area is also fenced. Lots of trees on the back of property. Owner is selling in current condition...bring your vision! No HOA.

20. 2026-03-25
    status Active 570-char remark

    Show marketing remark (570 chars)

    PRICE REDUCED! Home in a peaceful country setting on 1.88 acres. 3 bedroom, 2 full bath and large living area. Back deck and front porch re-built in 2024. Owner also added an above ground pool with pump for hot summers and a 10' x 20' outbuilding with electricity in 2024! Sheds and pavilion with dirt floor for storage or could be used as an outdoor seating area. Unfinished green house in back. Perimeter fencing with gates. Vegetable garden area is also fenced. Lots of trees on the back of property. Owner is selling in current condition...bring your vision! No HOA.

21. 2026-03-21
    historical Active Option Contract 570-char remark

    Show marketing remark (570 chars)

    PRICE REDUCED! Home in a peaceful country setting on 1.88 acres. 3 bedroom, 2 full bath and large living area. Back deck and front porch re-built in 2024. Owner also added an above ground pool with pump for hot summers and a 10' x 20' outbuilding with electricity in 2024! Sheds and pavilion with dirt floor for storage or could be used as an outdoor seating area. Unfinished green house in back. Perimeter fencing with gates. Vegetable garden area is also fenced. Lots of trees on the back of property. Owner is selling in current condition...bring your vision! No HOA.

22. 2026-03-02
    listed $239,000 Active 570-char remark

    Show marketing remark (570 chars)

    PRICE REDUCED! Home in a peaceful country setting on 1.88 acres. 3 bedroom, 2 full bath and large living area. Back deck and front porch re-built in 2024. Owner also added an above ground pool with pump for hot summers and a 10' x 20' outbuilding with electricity in 2024! Sheds and pavilion with dirt floor for storage or could be used as an outdoor seating area. Unfinished green house in back. Perimeter fencing with gates. Vegetable garden area is also fenced. Lots of trees on the back of property. Owner is selling in current condition...bring your vision! No HOA.

23. 2026-01-28
    historical
24. 2026-01-01
    price $239,000
25. 2025-12-08
    price $244,000
26. 2025-11-24
    price $247,000
27. 2025-10-23
    price $249,000
28. 2025-10-06
    price $250,000
29. 2025-09-24
    listed $259,000 Active
30. 2023-07-06
    soldstatus
31. 2023-07-06
    soldstatus
32. 2023-06-29
    soldstatus Closed
33. 2023-06-08
    status Pending
34. 2023-04-12
    price $267,000
35. 2023-04-12
    status Active
36. 2023-02-20
    status Pending
37. 2023-02-18
    historical Active Option Contract
38. 2023-02-16
    status Active
39. 2023-02-15
    historical Active Option Contract
40. 2023-02-04
    status Active
41. 2023-01-31
    historical Active Option Contract
42. 2023-01-13
    price $255,000
43. 2023-01-05
    price $265,000
44. 2022-11-23
    price $268,500
45. 2022-11-09
    price $278,500
46. 2022-10-18
    price $287,500
47. 2022-10-04
    listed $295,000 Active
48. 2020-02-14
    soldstatus
49. 2001-04-14
    soldstatus

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast TX · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $3,619 · $302/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $3,825 · $319/mo
• Expected delta: +$205/yr (+$17/mo · 5.7%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 5/10 Major
• 🌡 Heat 7/10 Severe 7 d/yr ≥109°F today · 24 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 6/10 Major 27% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 1 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $25,333
• − Mortgage interest: −$11,707
• − Property taxes: −$3,619
• − Insurance: −$1,045
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,027
• − Management: −$2,027
• − Depreciation: −$6,080
• Taxable loss: −$1,172
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$281
• After-tax cash flow: $2,478/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Terrell ISD
• NCES district ID: 4842450
• Math proficiency: 25% ▼ -14.00%
• Reading proficiency: 30% ▼ -5.00%
• Median HH income: $44,265
• Composite: 23.57/100
• National rank: #7855
• State rank: #677 of 826 in TX

Livability — Elmo

• Score: 57/100
• State rank: #1234
• US rank: #21588

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime A Employment D Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• City population: 6,910
• Population (ZIP): 6,910

Population outlook (Kaufman County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 138,716 people
• By 2030: 150,815 · +8.7%
• By 2040: 174,877 · +26.1%
• By 2050: 198,020 · +42.8%
• By 2075: 251,908 · +81.6%
• By 2100: 285,325 · +105.7%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (68%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 68% Hispanic / Latino 24% Two or more races 15% Black 4% Asian 2%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 20%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 2% Portuguese 1% Slovak 1%
• Foreign-born: 12% · Canada
• Languages at home: 85% English-only · Spanish 14%

Political lean MEDSL · Kaufman

• 2024 margin: Strong R (+27.9) · D 35.6% · R 63.5%
• 2008→2024 swing: +7.9pp toward D · 2008: -35.8pp · 2024: -27.9pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+27.9 2020: R+33.9 2016: R+47.0 2012: R+44.4 2008: R+35.8

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -57.90%
• Current HPI: 255.8463
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Price history

-25.5% since first listed

33 events — show timeline

• 2026-04-23 Price Changed $219,900 NTREIS
• 2026-04-16 Price Changed $229,900 NTREIS
• 2026-04-08 Price Changed $233,000 NTREIS
• 2026-03-25 Relisted — NTREIS
• 2026-03-21 Contingent — NTREIS
• 2026-03-02 Listed $239,000 NTREIS
• 2026-01-28 Listing Removed — NTREIS
• 2026-01-01 Price Changed $239,000 NTREIS
• 2025-12-08 Price Changed $244,000 NTREIS
• 2025-11-24 Price Changed $247,000 NTREIS
• 2025-10-23 Price Changed $249,000 NTREIS
• 2025-10-06 Price Changed $250,000 NTREIS
• 2025-09-24 Listed $259,000 NTREIS
• 2023-07-06 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records
• 2023-07-06 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records
• 2023-06-29 Sold (MLS) — NTREIS
• 2023-06-08 Pending — NTREIS
• 2023-04-12 Price Changed $267,000 NTREIS
• 2023-04-12 Relisted — NTREIS
• 2023-02-20 Pending — NTREIS
• 2023-02-18 Contingent — NTREIS
• 2023-02-16 Relisted — NTREIS
• 2023-02-15 Contingent — NTREIS
• 2023-02-04 Relisted — NTREIS
• 2023-01-31 Contingent — NTREIS
• 2023-01-13 Price Changed $255,000 NTREIS
• 2023-01-05 Price Changed $265,000 NTREIS
• 2022-11-23 Price Changed $268,500 NTREIS
• 2022-11-09 Price Changed $278,500 NTREIS
• 2022-10-18 Price Changed $287,500 NTREIS
• 2022-10-04 Listed $295,000 NTREIS
• 2020-02-14 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records
• 2001-04-14 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records

Property tax history

+10.0%/yr

Latest (2025): $3,619 · -12.5% YoY. Source: county tax records.