3411 S Camino Seco -- #45 · Tucson, AZ
Flood risk 1/10 · Minimal
- FEMA flood zone
- X (unshaded)
- Chance of flooding over 30 yrs
- 0.0%
- Est. flood insurance / yr
- $507 – $1,088
Fire risk 5/10 · Moderate
- Est. fire insurance / yr
- $610 – $1,132
Heat risk 7/10 · Major
- Hot days now (above 104°F)
- 6 days/yr
- Hot days in 30 yrs
- 15 days/yr
Wind risk 1/10 · Minimal
- Chance of severe wind over 30 yrs
- —
Air-quality risk 1/10 · Minimal
- Unhealthy air days now
- 0 days/yr
- Unhealthy air days in 30 yrs
- 0 days/yr
Risk factors via First Street. Map © Google.
Why this score? — see what drove the D- grade
The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).
- ARV discount +15.0/15.0
- 1% rule +10.0/10.0
- Cash flow +4.6/30.0
- Livability +3.7/5.0
- Condition / age +2.8/5.0
- Appreciation +2.5/10.0
- Rent growth +2.5/5.0
- Schools +1.3/10.0
- DSCR +0.0/10.0
- Manufactured-home adj. -3.4
$79,900
🖨 Deal sheet (PDF) 📄 Offer letter ✓ Due diligence
Listing remarks MLS
Located in a quiet cul de sac with a large yard off front of house. House freshly painted outside. This charming 3 bedroom home has cathedral ceilings and finished walls, plenty of windows for lots of light. Large eat in kitchen with lots of re finished cabinets and new dishwasher. New AC/Furnace under warranty. Refinished cabinets in the bathrooms. Washer and dryer included. Master suite has large walk in closet. Carpet stretched and cleaned, back wood trim replaced, shingles replaced and minor repairs completed. All electric home. Gas lines available if needed. Large shed at end of carport.
Key facts
- Large eat in kitchen
- Cul de sac
- New ac/furnace
Tags
Neighborhood map
What this means for you Summary
Snapshot
- This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath manufactured listed at $80k. Condition is rated average.
Deal economics
- At list price, monthly cash flow is $-201 ($-2k/yr) — negative.
- To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $51k (36.4% below list).
- Meets the 1% rule at list price ($1k rent vs $80k).
- Recommended offer: $51k (36.4% below list) — sets the bar for cash-flow.
Location & tenants
- Location reads 74/100 on livability (#17 in AZ, #4,502 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: commute A+, cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: health & safety C-, crime F, employment D-.
- Tucson Unified District (4403) (urban): math 14% / reading 23% proficiency, ranked #190 of 249 in AZ (top 76%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover.
- Zoned schools: Ford Elementary (math 17% / reading 27%, grade F, #687 of 1,109 statewide, top 65%, 201 students, 72% FRL); Secrist Middle School (math 2% / reading 17%, grade F, #194 of 218 statewide, top 90%, 304 students, 76% FRL); Santa Rita High School (math 8% / reading 8%, grade F, #358 of 381 statewide, top 94%, 392 students, 63% FRL).
- Market conditions: Rents soft (-0.2%/yr); 254 active listings in the ZIP; 40 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals lingering (median 61d on market — plan ~5-8 weeks vacancy on turnover, expect pricing pressure); 72% of comp listings sitting > 30 days — soft ceiling on asking rent; 5,268 units permitted in Pima County in 2024 (996 in 5+ unit buildings).
Forward outlook
- Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $552 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $2k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
- Pima County population projected at +8% by 2050 — modest demand growth; plan on rents tracking national, not racing it.
Negotiation context
- It's been on market 366 days — a 12% lower offer ($70k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
Risks & watch-outs
- Watch-outs: HOA is 53% of rent.
- Climate carrying-cost: moderate wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 6→15/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.
Questions for the listing agent
- What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
- It's been on market 366 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 36% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
- What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
- Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
- Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
- Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
- Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
- The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
- What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
- What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
- How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.
Investment metrics
- 1% rule
- 1.66% ✓
- Cap rate
- 3.27%
- Cash-on-cash
- -10.79%
- DSCR
- 0.52
- GRM
- 5.0
CMA / ARV
- ARV (median comp)
- $137,575
- List price
- $79,900
- Delta
- -41.92%
- Verdict
- UNDERPRICED
- Comps
- 2 within 1.0 mi
Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi
| Address | Dist | Beds/Ba | Sqft | Sold | Price | $/sf | Match |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 3822 S Desert Lake Dr | 0.24mi | 2/2.0 (-1) | 1,050 (-9%) | 1mo | $245,000 | $233 | 68 |
| 2672 S Black Moon Dr | 1.45mi | 3/2.0 | 1,140 (-1%) | 0mo | $279,000 | $245 | 63 |
| 2642 S Black Moon Dr | 1.49mi | 3/2.0 | 1,140 (-1%) | 0mo | $347,500 | $305 | 63 |
| 7739 E Locust St | 1.49mi | 3/2.0 | 1,130 (-2%) | 0mo | $282,000 | $250 | 62 |
| 7735 E Basswood Pl | 1.23mi | 3/2.0 | 1,185 (+3%) | 2mo | $273,000 | $230 | 59 |
| 7867 E Roget Dr | 1.40mi | 2/2.0 (-1) | 1,108 (-4%) | 1mo | $225,000 | $203 | 52 |
| 3711 S Le Beaux Pl | 0.48mi | 3/2.0 | 1,370 (+19%) | 1mo | $310,000 | $226 | 51 |
| 7855 E Roget Dr | 1.41mi | 3/2.0 | 1,310 (+14%) | 1mo | $232,900 | $178 | 41 |
| 3211 S Portia Ave | 1.27mi | 3/2.0 | 1,418 (+23%) | 0mo | $350,000 | $247 | 40 |
| 4735 S Windrose Dr | 0.99mi | 2/2.0 (-1) | 1,011 (-12%) | 0mo | $228,000 | $226 | 39 |
| 7984 E Boojum St | 1.37mi | 3/2.0 | 1,361 (+18%) | 2mo | $268,000 | $197 | 39 |
| 8357 E Avenida De Las Pampas | 1.35mi | 2/1.0 (-1) | 904 (-22%) | 0mo | $180,000 | $199 | 31 |
Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.
Projected returns pro-forma
-3.0% appreciation · 0.0% rent growth · sell at horizon
- IRR
- -45.4%
- Equity multiple
- -0.31×
- Total profit
- $-29,202
- Equity at exit
- $11,913
- IRR
- —
- Equity multiple
- -1.47×
- Total profit
- $-55,150
- Equity at exit
- $6,908
Cash invested: $22,372 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.
Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology
- Overall (STATE)
- 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
- State Arizona
- 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+3
- County
- — inherits STATE
- City
- — inherits STATE
Active competition Active MLS
- For sale now
- 16 active
- Months of supply
- 96.0 mo (1%/mo absorbed)
- Median asking
- $65,000 ($53/sqft)
- Median days on market
- 179 d
- This list price
- 62% of active listings are priced below it
- ARV vs active asking
- +124.3% above current asking $/sqft
Closed sales set the value; these active listings set current market conditions and a practical price ceiling.
ZIP-level market 85730
- Home prices YoY
- -30.9%
- Rents YoY
- -0.2%
- Active inventory
- 254
- Price-to-rent
- 5.0×
Monthly cashflow live
- Estimated rent
- $1,329 high interval (Pro) →
- Mortgage (P&I)
- −$419
- Tax est. 1.5%
- −$100 /mo · $1,198/yr
- Insurance
- −$33
- HOA
- −$699
- Lot rent leased land?
- −$0
- Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt
- −$279
- Net cashflow
- $-201
Break-even live
Sensitivity live
| Price | -10% $-146 | -5% $-174 | +0% $-201 | +5% $-229 | +10% $-256 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Rent | -10% $-306 | -5% $-254 | +0% $-201 | +5% $-149 | +10% $-96 |
| Rate | -1.0pp $-161 | -0.5pp $-181 | base $-201 | +0.5pp $-222 | +1.0pp $-243 |
UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt
Financing live
Cash to close
- Down payment
- $19,975
- Closing costs
- $2,397
- Club membership (one-time)
- —
- Reserves months
- —
- Total cash needed
- —
Loan-product check · same deal, 3 products live
Conventional
25% down · 7.5% · 30yr
- Cash invested
- —
- Monthly P&I
- —
- Monthly cashflow
- —
- DSCR
- —
- Eligible?
- —
Personal DTI + credit; lowest rate.
DSCR
20% down · 8.5% · 30yr
- Cash invested
- —
- Monthly P&I
- —
- Monthly cashflow
- —
- DSCR
- —
- Eligible?
- —
No personal income docs; deal must DSCR.
Hard money
10% down · 12.0% · 12mo
- Cash invested
- —
- Monthly P&I
- —
- Monthly cashflow
- —
- DSCR
- —
- Eligible?
- —
Short-term bridge; refi at stabilization.
Rent comps 40 comps
| Address | Beds | Baths | Sqft | Rent | $/sqft | DOM | Units | Dist |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 3455 S Magda Ave Tucson, AZ | 3.0 | 2.0 | 1500 | $2,000 | $1.33 | 93d | 1 | 0.18mi |
| 8829 E Eagle Creek Dr Tucson, AZ | 3.0 | 2.0 | 1280 | $1,830 | $1.43 | 65d | 1 | 0.57mi |
| 8838 E Arbor St Tucson, AZ | 2.0 | 2.0 | 799 | $1,295 | $1.62 | 69d | 1 | 0.70mi |
| 8838 E Arbor St Tucson, AZ | 2.0 | 2.0 | 799 | $1,295 | $1.62 | 28d | 1 | 0.70mi |
| 8737 E Pebble Stone Ln Tucson, AZ | 3.0 | 2.0 | 1383 | $2,095 | $1.51 | 93d | 1 | 0.75mi |
| 4289 S Goodall Pl Tucson, AZ | 3.0 | 2.0 | 1372 | $1,950 | $1.42 | 93d | 1 | 0.76mi |
| 2650 S Brandywine Ln Tucson, AZ | 3.0 | 2.5 | 1340 | $1,500 | $1.12 | 93d | 1 | 0.77mi |
| 8823 E Stone Meadow Cir Tucson, AZ | 3.0 | 2.0 | 1383 | $1,795 | $1.30 | 20d | 1 | 0.77mi |
| 8749 E Pebble Stone Ln Tucson, AZ | 3.0 | 2.0 | 1462 | $1,750 | $1.20 | 35d | 1 | 0.78mi |
| 4433 S Sunrise Bluff Way Tucson, AZ | 3.0 | 2.0 | 1465 | $1,895 | $1.29 | 72d | 1 | 0.79mi |
| 8763 E Pebble Stone Ln Tucson, AZ | 3.0 | 2.0 | 1262 | $1,895 | $1.50 | 17d | 1 | 0.84mi |
| 2618 S Camino Seco Tucson, AZ | 2.0 | 1.5 | 1442 | $1,299 | $0.90 | 72d | 1 | 0.84mi |
| 8024 E Victoria Dr Tucson, AZ | 3.0 | 2.0 | 1127 | $1,500 | $1.33 | 72d | 1 | 0.87mi |
| 8755 E Stone Meadow Cir Tucson, AZ | 3.0 | 2.0 | 1465 | $1,875 | $1.28 | 41d | 1 | 0.89mi |
| 2501 S Pantano Pkwy Unit 3 Tucson, AZ | 3.0 | 2.0 | 1150 | $1,500 | $1.30 | 20d | 1 | 0.91mi |
| 9009 E Kinross Dr Tucson, AZ | 3.0 | 2.0 | 1304 | $1,715 | $1.32 | 70d | 1 | 0.92mi |
| 8250 E Golf Links Rd Tucson, AZ | 1.0–3.0 | 1.0–2.0 | 865 | $1,874 | $2.17 | 16d | 27 | 0.94mi |
| 7983 E Escalante Rd Unit 3 Tucson, AZ | 2.0 | 1.0 | 850 | $1,075 | $1.26 | 63d | 1 | 0.96mi |
| 8030 E Lakeside Pkwy Tucson, AZ | 2.0 | 2.0 | 880 | $1,308 | $1.49 | 52d | 1 | 0.98mi |
| 8030 E Lakeside Pkwy Tucson, AZ | 2.0 | 2.0 | 880 | $1,292 | $1.47 | 17d | 1 | 0.98mi |
| 3410 S Lakeside Pl Tucson, AZ | 3.0 | 2.0 | 1271 | $1,800 | $1.42 | 72d | 1 | 1.01mi |
| 7950 E Stella Rd Tucson, AZ | 2.0 | 2.0 | 1000 | $1,395 | $1.40 | 52d | 1 | 1.01mi |
| 7950 E Stella Rd Tucson, AZ | 2.0 | 2.0 | 1000 | $1,195 | $1.20 | 70d | 1 | 1.01mi |
| 7950 E Stella Rd Tucson, AZ | 2.0 | 2.0 | 1000 | $1,295 | $1.29 | 28d | 1 | 1.01mi |
| 7950 E Stella Rd Tucson, AZ | 2.0 | 2.0 | 1000 | $1,195 | $1.20 | 20d | 1 | 1.01mi |
| 8315 E Golf Links Rd Tucson, AZ | 2.0–3.0 | 2.0 | 1389 | $2,095 | $1.51 | 20d | 2 | 1.01mi |
| 4775 S Wild Rose Dr Tucson, AZ | 3.0 | 2.0 | 1165 | $1,645 | $1.41 | 72d | 1 | 1.04mi |
| 4775 S Wild Rose Dr Tucson, AZ | 3.0 | 2.0 | 1165 | $1,695 | $1.45 | 39d | 1 | 1.04mi |
| 8925 E Citrus Tree Dr Tucson, AZ | 3.0 | 2.0 | 1165 | $1,595 | $1.37 | 28d | 1 | 1.04mi |
| 9172 E Corte Arroyo Oeste Tucson, AZ | 3.0 | 2.0 | 1350 | $1,900 | $1.41 | 52d | 1 | 1.10mi |
| 9055 E Alderpoint Way Tucson, AZ | 3.0 | 2.0 | 1165 | $1,695 | $1.45 | 70d | 1 | 1.11mi |
| 8061 E Senate St Tucson, AZ | 2.0 | 2.5 | 1298 | $1,700 | $1.31 | 70d | 1 | 1.12mi |
| 9530 E 42nd St Tucson, AZ | 3.0 | 2.0 | 1284 | $1,895 | $1.48 | 41d | 1 | 1.13mi |
| 2425 S Rose Peak Dr Tucson, AZ | 2.0 | 1.0 | 821 | $1,200 | $1.46 | 66d | 1 | 1.19mi |
| 2024 S Birdie Cir Tucson, AZ | 3.0 | 2.0 | 1479 | $1,675 | $1.13 | 52d | 1 | 1.25mi |
| 7701 E 45th St Tucson, AZ | 3.0 | 2.0 | 1127 | $1,395 | $1.24 | 61d | 1 | 1.27mi |
| 9801 E Domenic Ln Tucson, AZ | 3.0 | 2.0 | 1428 | $1,791 | $1.25 | 61d | 1 | 1.34mi |
| 3892 S Evergreen Ave Tucson, AZ | 2.0 | 1.0 | 730 | $1,295 | $1.77 | 93d | 1 | 1.35mi |
| 9802 E Stella Rd Tucson, AZ | 4.0 | 2.0 | 1416 | $1,945 | $1.37 | 61d | 1 | 1.35mi |
| 2455 S Cybil Ave Tucson, AZ | 3.0 | 2.0 | 1297 | $1,875 | $1.45 | 26d | 1 | 1.45mi |
HOA detail $699/mo · $8,388/yr
- Likely covers
- gaselectric
Listing history 44 events
-
2026-07-23days on market $79,900 Active 366 DOM
-
2026-07-22days on market $79,900 Active 365 DOM
-
2026-07-21days on market $79,900 Active 364 DOM
-
2026-07-20days on market $79,900 Active 363 DOM
-
2026-07-18days on market $79,900 Active 361 DOM
-
2026-07-18days on market $79,900 Active 360 DOM
-
2026-07-16days on market $79,900 Active 359 DOM
-
2026-07-15days on market $79,900 Active 358 DOM
-
2026-07-14days on market $79,900 Active 357 DOM
-
2026-07-13days on market $79,900 Active 356 DOM
-
2026-07-13days on market $79,900 Active 355 DOM
-
2026-07-11days on market $79,900 Active 354 DOM
-
2026-07-10days on market $79,900 Active 353 DOM
-
2026-07-09days on market $79,900 Active 352 DOM
-
2026-07-07days on market $79,900 Active 350 DOM
-
2026-07-06days on market $79,900 Active 349 DOM
-
2026-07-05days on market $79,900 Active 348 DOM
-
2026-07-03days on market $79,900 Active 346 DOM
-
2026-07-02days on market $79,900 Active 345 DOM
-
2026-07-01days on market $79,900 Active 344 DOM
-
2026-06-30days on market $79,900 Active 343 DOM
-
2026-06-29days on market $79,900 Active 342 DOM
-
2026-06-28days on market $79,900 Active 341 DOM
-
2026-06-27days on market $79,900 Active 340 DOM
-
2026-06-27days on market $79,900 Active 339 DOM
-
2026-06-25days on market $79,900 Active 337 DOM
-
2026-06-22days on market $79,900 Active 335 DOM
-
2026-06-21days on market $79,900 Active 334 DOM
-
2026-06-18days on market $79,900 Active 331 DOM
-
2026-06-17days on market $79,900 Active 330 DOM
-
2026-06-16days on market $79,900 Active 329 DOM
-
2026-06-15days on market $79,900 Active 328 DOM
-
2026-06-13days on market $79,900 Active 326 DOM
-
2026-06-10days on market $79,900 Active 323 DOM
-
2026-06-09days on market $79,900 Active 322 DOM
-
2026-06-08days on market $79,900 Active 321 DOM
-
2026-06-07days on market $79,900 Active 320 DOM
-
2026-06-05days on market $79,900 Active 317 DOM
-
2026-06-03days on market $79,900 Active 316 DOM
-
2026-06-02days on market $79,900 Active 315 DOM
-
2026-06-01days on market $79,900 Active 314 DOM
-
2026-05-31days on market $79,900 Active 313 DOM
-
2026-04-06price $89,900 615-char remark
Show marketing remark (615 chars)
Located in a quiet cul de sac with a large yard off front of house. House freshly painted outside. This charming 3 bedroom home has cathedral ceilings and finished walls, plenty of windows for lots of light. Large eat in kitchen with lots of re finished cabinets and new dishwasher. New AC/Furnace under warranty. Refinished cabinets in the bathrooms. Washer and dryer included. Master suite has large walk in closet. Carpet stretched and cleaned, back wood trim replaced, shingles replaced and minor repairs completed. All electric home. Gas lines available if needed. Large shed at end of carport. 55+
-
2025-07-22$120,000 Active 615-char remark
Show marketing remark (615 chars)
Located in a quiet cul de sac with a large yard off front of house. House freshly painted outside. This charming 3 bedroom home has cathedral ceilings and finished walls, plenty of windows for lots of light. Large eat in kitchen with lots of re finished cabinets and new dishwasher. New AC/Furnace under warranty. Refinished cabinets in the bathrooms. Washer and dryer included. Master suite has large walk in closet. Carpet stretched and cleaned, back wood trim replaced, shingles replaced and minor repairs completed. All electric home. Gas lines available if needed. Large shed at end of carport. 55+
ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot
backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.
Climate risk First Street
- Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
- Wildfire 5/10 Major
- Heat 7/10 Severe 6 d/yr ≥104°F today · 15 d/yr by 30 yrs out
- Wind 1/10 Low
- Air quality 1/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 0 by 30 yrs out
Nearby sold comps map
Loading sold comps map…
Walkable amenities ~0.75 mi
Loading nearby amenities…
Taxation est. · year 1
- Rental income
- $15,950
- − Mortgage interest
- −$4,476
- − Property taxes
- −$1,198
- − Insurance
- −$400
- − Repairs & maintenance
- −$1,276
- − Management
- −$1,276
- − HOA
- −$8,388
- − Depreciation
- −$2,324
- Taxable loss
- −$3,388
- Est. tax savings @ 24.0%
- +$813
- After-tax cash flow
- $-1,600/yr
For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.
Condition & rehab AI · 12 photos
This 3-bedroom home is in average condition with cosmetic repairs needed. Painting and updating the kitchen and bathrooms would significantly enhance its resale and rental value.
Repairs flagged
- Minor Kitchen countertops — Worn appearance
- Minor Bathroom fixtures — Worn appearance
- Minor Flooring — May need sealing
Value-add opportunities
- Both Painting exterior and interior walls — Enhances curb appeal and interior appearance ↑
- Both Replacing worn countertops and fixtures — Improves functionality and aesthetics ↑
- Both Sealing and resealing flooring — Maintains appearance and protects against wear ↑
ⓘ Rehab cost is a screening estimate — Cosmetic scope × the home's square footage at US $/sqft rules of thumb (the same model as the Flip Finder). Get contractor quotes + a written scope before underwriting.
Zoned Schools
Schools (NCES district)
- District
- Tucson Unified District (4403)
- NCES district ID
- 0408800
- Math proficiency
- 14% ▼ -17.00%
- Reading proficiency
- 23% ▼ -11.00%
- Median HH income
- $40,962
- Composite
- 15.78/100
- National rank
- #9270
- State rank
- #190 of 249 in AZ
Livability — Tucson
- Score
- 74/100
- State rank
- #17
- US rank
- #4502
Category grades
Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.
Census & demographics
- Census place
- Tucson, AZ
- County
- Pima County · 1,066,056 people
- City population
- 839,336
- Metro
- Tucson, AZ
- Population (ZIP)
- 39,399
- Household income
- $62,090
- Rent vs Own
- Severe rent burden
- 13% of renters
Population outlook (Pima County) Hauer SSP2
- Today (2025)
- 1,066,056 people
- By 2030
- 1,086,684 · +1.9%
- By 2040
- 1,117,160 · +4.8%
- By 2050
- 1,149,778 · +7.9%
- By 2075
- 1,271,480 · +19.3%
- By 2100
- 1,321,160 · +23.9%
Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023
- Neighborhood character
- Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.62)
- Race & ethnicity
- White 53% Hispanic / Latino 31% Two or more races 16% Black 8% Asian 3% Native American 1%
- Hispanic origin (detail)
- Mexican 28%
- Common ancestry
- Romanian 2% Lithuanian 2% Slovak 2%
- Foreign-born
- 8% · Canada, Vietnam
- Languages at home
- 84% English-only · Spanish 13% Vietnamese 1%
Political lean MEDSL · Pima
- 2024 margin
- D (+15.2) · D 57.0% · R 41.8% · Other 1.2%
- 2008→2024 swing
- +9.1pp toward D · 2008: 6.1pp · 2024: 15.2pp
- All cycles
- 2024: D+15.2 2020: D+18.7 2016: D+13.5 2012: D+5.8 2008: D+6.1
Not yet ingested
- Civics
- —
Market trends
- HPI YoY
- ▼ -136.41%
- Current HPI
- 304.999
- Rent YoY
- ▼ -0.16%
- Metro
- Tucson, AZ
- State GDP YoY
- ▲ 4.54%
- F500 in state
- 20
Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in AZ)
| Industry | F500 HQs | Revenue |
|---|---|---|
| Technology | 2 | $13B |
|
||
| Mining / Metals | 1 | $23B |
|
||
| Environmental Services | 1 | $16B |
|
||
| Metals / Steel | 1 | $14B |
|
||
| Technology Distribution | 1 | $9B |
|
||
| Homebuilding | 1 | $8B |
|
||
Price history
-25.1% since first listed2 events — show timeline
- 2026-04-06 Price Changed $89,900 ARMLS
- 2025-07-22 Listed $120,000 ARMLS
Cash-flow waterfall
monthlySold comps — $/sqft
last 12 mo · ≤1 miLoading sold comps…