3411 S Camino Seco -- #45 · Tucson, AZ 85730

$79,900

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,152 sqft · Manufactured · 334 Days on market

Built 2000 Average condition $69/sqft · 16% above area Est $69k · 16% over $699/mo HOA · 40% of rent ↓ 25% since listing

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Why this score? — see what drove the C- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +22.6/30.0
• 1% rule +10.0/10.0
• DSCR +7.3/10.0
• Livability +3.7/5.0
• Condition / age +2.8/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Schools +1.6/10.0
• ARV discount +0.4/15.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Located in a quiet cul de sac with a large yard off front of house. House freshly painted outside. This charming 3 bedroom home has cathedral ceilings and finished walls, plenty of windows for lots of light. Large eat in kitchen with lots of re finished cabinets and new dishwasher. New AC/Furnace under warranty. Refinished cabinets in the bathrooms. Washer and dryer included. Master suite has large walk in closet. Carpet stretched and cleaned, back wood trim replaced, shingles replaced and minor repairs completed. All electric home. Gas lines available if needed. Large shed at end of carport. 55+

Key facts

• Large eat in kitchen
• Cul de sac
• New ac/furnace

Tags

• CUL DE SAC
• LARGE YARD
• LARGE EAT IN KITCHEN
• REFINISHED CABINETS
• NEW DISHWASHER
• NEW AC/FURNACE

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath manufactured listed at $80k. Condition is rated average.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $137 ($2k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $80k).
• Recommended offer: $70k (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 8.3% vs local median 3.7% in Tucson — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 74/100 on livability (#17 in AZ, #4,502 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: commute A+, cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: health & safety C-, schools D+, crime F.
• Tucson Unified District (4403) (urban): math 14% / reading 23% proficiency, ranked #190 of 249 in AZ (top 76%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover.
• Market conditions: Rents soft (-0.2%/yr); 198 active listings in the ZIP; 30 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 23d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 5,268 units permitted in Pima County in 2024 (996 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 34% of the median local income ($62k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $552 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $2k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Pima County population projected at +8% by 2050 — modest demand growth; plan on rents tracking national, not racing it.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 334 days — a 12% lower offer ($70k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: HOA is 40% of rent.
• Climate carrying-cost: moderate wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 6→15/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $70,312 (12.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 334 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
3. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
6. Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
7. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
8. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
9. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 2.20% ✓
• Cap rate: 8.34%
• Cash-on-cash: 7.33%
• DSCR: 1.33
• GRM: 3.8

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $69,000
• List price: $79,900
• Delta: 15.80%
• Verdict: OVERPRICED
• Comps: 3 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 2 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
3411 S Camino Seco #12	0.20mi	2/2.0 (-1)	1,100 (-4%)	3mo	$69,000	$63	76
3768 S Andrew Johnson Ave	0.21mi	2/2.0 (-1)	1,248 (+8%)	6mo	$212,500	$170	66

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 0.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -11.7%
• Equity multiple: 0.60×
• Total profit: $-8,940
• Equity at exit: $11,913

10-year hold

• IRR: -16.8%
• Equity multiple: 0.35×
• Total profit: $-14,626
• Equity at exit: $6,908

Cash invested: $22,372 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Arizona: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+3
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

5-day pay-or-quit; AZ courts known for speed; no state rent control; cities preempted by state law.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 85730

• Home prices YoY: -30.9%
• Rents YoY: -0.2%
• Active inventory: 198
• Price-to-rent: 3.8×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,757 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$419
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$100 /mo · $1,198/yr
• Insurance: −$33
• HOA: −$699
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$369
• Net cashflow: $137

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,584

Max offer price $79,900

Occupancy floor 87%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $192	-5% $164	+0% $137	+5% $109	+10% $81
Rent	-10% $-2	-5% $67	+0% $137	+5% $206	+10% $275
Rate	-1.0pp $177	-0.5pp $157	base $137	+0.5pp $116	+1.0pp $95

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $19,975
• Closing costs: $2,397
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 30 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
3455 S Magda Ave Tucson, AZ	3.0	2.0	1500	$2,000	$1.33	45d	1	0.18mi
8829 E Eagle Creek Dr Tucson, AZ	3.0	2.0	1280	$1,830	$1.43	17d	1	0.57mi
8838 E Arbor St Tucson, AZ	2.0	2.0	799	$1,295	$1.62	21d	1	0.70mi
8737 E Pebble Stone Ln Tucson, AZ	3.0	2.0	1383	$2,095	$1.51	45d	1	0.75mi
4289 S Goodall Pl Tucson, AZ	3.0	2.0	1372	$1,950	$1.42	45d	1	0.76mi
2650 S Brandywine Ln Tucson, AZ	3.0	2.5	1340	$1,500	$1.12	45d	1	0.77mi
4433 S Sunrise Bluff Way Tucson, AZ	3.0	2.0	1465	$1,895	$1.29	25d	1	0.79mi
8763 E Pebble Stone Ln Tucson, AZ	3.0	2.0	1262	$1,995	$1.58	4d	1	0.84mi
2618 S Camino Seco Tucson, AZ	2.0	1.5	1442	$1,299	$0.90	25d	1	0.84mi
8024 E Victoria Dr Tucson, AZ	3.0	2.0	1127	$1,500	$1.33	25d	1	0.87mi
8755 E Stone Meadow Cir Tucson, AZ	3.0	2.0	1465	$1,925	$1.31	18d	1	0.89mi
8981 E Golf Links Rd Unit 2 Tucson, AZ	2.0	2.0	971	$1,890	$1.95	45d	1	0.91mi
9009 E Kinross Dr Tucson, AZ	3.0	2.0	1304	$1,715	$1.32	22d	1	0.92mi
8250 E Golf Links Rd Tucson, AZ	1.0–3.0	1.0–2.0	865	$1,899	$2.20	3d	22	0.94mi
7983 E Escalante Rd Unit 3 Tucson, AZ	2.0	1.0	850	$1,075	$1.26	15d	1	0.96mi
8030 E Lakeside Pkwy Tucson, AZ	2.0	2.0	880	$1,308	$1.49	4d	1	0.98mi
3410 S Lakeside Pl Tucson, AZ	3.0	2.0	1271	$1,800	$1.42	25d	1	1.01mi
7950 E Stella Rd Tucson, AZ	2.0	2.0	1000	$1,395	$1.40	4d	1	1.01mi
7950 E Stella Rd Tucson, AZ	2.0	2.0	1000	$1,195	$1.20	22d	1	1.01mi
4775 S Wild Rose Dr Tucson, AZ	3.0	2.0	1165	$1,645	$1.41	25d	1	1.04mi
4775 S Wild Rose Dr Tucson, AZ	3.0	2.0	1165	$1,695	$1.45	4d	1	1.04mi
9172 E Corte Arroyo Oeste Tucson, AZ	3.0	2.0	1350	$1,900	$1.41	4d	1	1.10mi
9055 E Alderpoint Way Tucson, AZ	3.0	2.0	1165	$1,695	$1.45	22d	1	1.11mi
8061 E Senate St Tucson, AZ	2.0	2.5	1298	$1,700	$1.31	22d	1	1.12mi
2425 S Rose Peak Dr Tucson, AZ	2.0	1.0	821	$1,200	$1.46	18d	1	1.19mi
2024 S Birdie Cir Tucson, AZ	3.0	2.0	1479	$1,675	$1.13	4d	1	1.25mi
7701 E 45th St Tucson, AZ	3.0	2.0	1127	$1,395	$1.24	13d	1	1.27mi
9801 E Domenic Ln Tucson, AZ	3.0	2.0	1428	$1,791	$1.25	13d	1	1.34mi
3892 S Evergreen Ave Tucson, AZ	2.0	1.0	730	$1,295	$1.77	45d	1	1.35mi
9802 E Stella Rd Tucson, AZ	4.0	2.0	1416	$1,945	$1.37	13d	1	1.35mi

HOA detail

• Monthly dues: $699 · $8,388/yr
• Likely covers: gaselectric

Listing history 17 events

1. 2026-06-21
   days on market $79,900 Active 334 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   days on market $79,900 Active 331 DOM
3. 2026-06-17
   days on market $79,900 Active 330 DOM
4. 2026-06-16
   days on market $79,900 Active 329 DOM
5. 2026-06-15
   days on market $79,900 Active 328 DOM
6. 2026-06-13
   days on market $79,900 Active 326 DOM
7. 2026-06-10
   days on market $79,900 Active 323 DOM
8. 2026-06-09
   days on market $79,900 Active 322 DOM
9. 2026-06-08
   days on market $79,900 Active 321 DOM
10. 2026-06-07
    days on market $79,900 Active 320 DOM
11. 2026-06-05
    days on market $79,900 Active 317 DOM
12. 2026-06-03
    days on market $79,900 Active 316 DOM
13. 2026-06-02
    days on market $79,900 Active 315 DOM
14. 2026-06-01
    days on market $79,900 Active 314 DOM
15. 2026-05-31
    days on market $79,900 Active 313 DOM
16. 2026-04-06
    price $89,900 615-char remark

    Show marketing remark (615 chars)

    Located in a quiet cul de sac with a large yard off front of house. House freshly painted outside. This charming 3 bedroom home has cathedral ceilings and finished walls, plenty of windows for lots of light. Large eat in kitchen with lots of re finished cabinets and new dishwasher. New AC/Furnace under warranty. Refinished cabinets in the bathrooms. Washer and dryer included. Master suite has large walk in closet. Carpet stretched and cleaned, back wood trim replaced, shingles replaced and minor repairs completed. All electric home. Gas lines available if needed. Large shed at end of carport. 55+

17. 2025-07-22
    listed $120,000 Active 615-char remark

    Show marketing remark (615 chars)

    Located in a quiet cul de sac with a large yard off front of house. House freshly painted outside. This charming 3 bedroom home has cathedral ceilings and finished walls, plenty of windows for lots of light. Large eat in kitchen with lots of re finished cabinets and new dishwasher. New AC/Furnace under warranty. Refinished cabinets in the bathrooms. Washer and dryer included. Master suite has large walk in closet. Carpet stretched and cleaned, back wood trim replaced, shingles replaced and minor repairs completed. All electric home. Gas lines available if needed. Large shed at end of carport. 55+

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 5/10 Major
• 🌡 Heat 7/10 Severe 6 d/yr ≥104°F today · 15 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 1/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 1/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 0 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $21,080
• − Mortgage interest: −$4,476
• − Property taxes: −$1,198
• − Insurance: −$400
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,686
• − Management: −$1,686
• − HOA: −$8,388
• − Depreciation: −$2,324
• Taxable income: $921
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$221
• After-tax cash flow: $1,418/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Condition & rehab AI · 12 photos

Average 55/100 Cosmetic rehab

This 3-bedroom home is in average condition with cosmetic repairs needed. Painting and updating the kitchen and bathrooms would significantly enhance its resale and rental value.

Repairs flagged

• Minor Kitchen countertops — Worn appearance
• Minor Bathroom fixtures — Worn appearance
• Minor Flooring — May need sealing

Value-add opportunities

• Both Painting exterior and interior walls — Enhances curb appeal and interior appearance
• Both Replacing worn countertops and fixtures — Improves functionality and aesthetics
• Both Sealing and resealing flooring — Maintains appearance and protects against wear

Renovation cost estimate screening

Repair item	Severity	Est. cost
Kitchen countertops · Worn appearance	Minor	$500–3,000
Bathroom fixtures · Worn appearance	Minor	$500–3,000
Flooring · May need sealing	Minor	$500–3,000
Total estimated repair cost · 3 items		$1,500–9,000

Value-add ROI direction

• Both Painting exterior and interior walls — Enhances curb appeal and interior appearance ↑
• Both Replacing worn countertops and fixtures — Improves functionality and aesthetics ↑
• Both Sealing and resealing flooring — Maintains appearance and protects against wear ↑

ⓘ Cost ranges are severity-bucket heuristics (US national rule-of-thumb). Get contractor quotes + a written scope before underwriting a rehab budget.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Tucson Unified District (4403)
• NCES district ID: 0408800
• Math proficiency: 14% ▼ -17.00%
• Reading proficiency: 23% ▼ -11.00%
• Median HH income: $40,962
• Composite: 15.78/100
• National rank: #9270
• State rank: #190 of 249 in AZ

Livability — Tucson

• Score: 74/100
• State rank: #17
• US rank: #4502

Category grades

Amenities B Commute A+ Cost of living A+ Crime F Employment D- Housing A+ Health & safety C- User ratings C-

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Tucson, AZ
• County: Pima County · 1,012,107 people
• City population: 839,336
• Metro: Tucson, AZ
• Population (ZIP): 39,399
• Household income: $62,090
• Rent vs Own: 31.2% rent · 68.8% own
• Severe rent burden: 1364.0

Population outlook (Pima County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 1,066,056 people
• By 2030: 1,086,684 · +1.9%
• By 2040: 1,117,160 · +4.8%
• By 2050: 1,149,778 · +7.9%
• By 2075: 1,271,480 · +19.3%
• By 2100: 1,321,160 · +23.9%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.62)
• Race & ethnicity: White 53% Hispanic / Latino 31% Two or more races 16% Black 8% Asian 3% Native American 1%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 28%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 2% Lithuanian 2% Slovak 2%
• Foreign-born: 8% · Canada, Vietnam
• Languages at home: 84% English-only · Spanish 13% Vietnamese 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Pima

• 2024 margin: D (+15.2) · D 57.0% · R 41.8% · Other 1.2%
• 2008→2024 swing: +9.1pp toward D · 2008: 6.1pp · 2024: 15.2pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+15.2 2020: D+18.7 2016: D+13.5 2012: D+5.8 2008: D+6.1

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -136.41%
• Current HPI: 304.999
• Rent YoY: ▼ -0.16%
• Metro: Tucson, AZ
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 4.54%
• F500 in state: 20

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in AZ)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Technology	2	$13B
▸Mining / Metals	1	$23B
▸Environmental Services	1	$16B
▸Metals / Steel	1	$14B
▸Technology Distribution	1	$9B
▸Homebuilding	1	$8B

Price history

-25.1% since first listed

2 events — show timeline

• 2026-04-06 Price Changed $89,900 ARMLS
• 2025-07-22 Listed $120,000 ARMLS