1504 3rd Pkwy · Washington, MO 63090

$269,900

2 bd · 1.0 ba · 1,661 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 26 Days on market

Built 1953 Est $272k · at est.

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Why this score? — see what drove the D- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +11.7/30.0
• ARV discount +7.9/15.0
• Schools +4.2/10.0
• Livability +4.0/5.0
• DSCR +3.5/10.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• 1% rule +2.4/10.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

You will love this spacious home! 21x15 main floor family room with wood burning fireplace. New flooring throughout, new kitchen cabinets, 2 main floor bedrooms with large closets, upstairs loft has a half bath and can easily sleep 4, with lots of closet/storage space. Basement is partially finished, includes a full bath and walks out to storage/garage space. This home is located in the heart of Washington, and is sure to delight. (Real Estate Agents welcome. )

Key facts

• Half bath
• Upstairs loft
• New flooring

Tags

• MAIN FLOOR FAMILY ROOM
• WOOD BURNING FIREPLACE
• NEW FLOORING
• NEW KITCHEN CABINETS
• UPSTAIRS LOFT
• HALF BATH

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $270k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-78 ($-930/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $256k (5.1% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $199k (26.3% below list).
• Recommended offer: $199k (26.3% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 5.9% vs local median 2.4% in Washington — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 81/100 on livability (#13 in MO, #1,373 nationally) — a professional / high-income tenant draw. Strengths: amenities A+, cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: commute F.
• Washington (town): math 41% / reading 55% proficiency, ranked #46 of 324 in MO (top 14%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Market conditions: 201 active listings in the ZIP; 3 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 19d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 614 units permitted in Franklin County in 2024 (100 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $8k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Franklin County population projected to shrink 9% by 2050 — rents likely to lag national; underwrite the cash flow, not the appreciation.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 26 days — a 2% lower offer ($266k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: built in 1953 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.
• Climate carrying-cost: extreme-heat days projected 7→20/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $198,961 (26.3% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. Built in 1953 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. Schools are B-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
5. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.74% ✗
• Cap rate: 5.95%
• Cash-on-cash: -1.23%
• DSCR: 0.95
• GRM: 11.3

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $272,404
• Comps found: 12

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
1405 E 1st St	0.16mi	3/2.0 (+1)	1,662 (+0%)	8mo	$272,000	$164	77
300 East Lane Dr	0.21mi	3/2.0 (+1)	1,612 (-3%)	11mo	$220,000	$136	67
309 International Ave	0.35mi	3/2.0 (+1)	1,676 (+1%)	12mo	$212,000	$126	63
1800 E 9th St	0.41mi	3/2.0 (+1)	1,750 (+5%)	1mo	$213,900	$122	62
808 Macarthur St	0.66mi	3/2.0 (+1)	1,665 (+0%)	6mo	$267,000	$160	55
1205 Caroline Dr	0.70mi	3/2.0 (+1)	1,615 (-3%)	3mo	$293,500	$182	52
1705 E 9th St	0.33mi	3/2.0 (+1)	1,450 (-13%)	3mo	$242,000	$167	52
25 Madison Ave	0.49mi	3/2.0 (+1)	1,828 (+10%)	1mo	$275,000	$150	51
810 Fairview Dr	0.69mi	3/2.0 (+1)	1,600 (-4%)	6mo	$300,000	$188	47
2114 E 5th St	0.64mi	2/2.0	1,452 (-13%)	10mo	$249,000	$171	37
1015 Marilyn Ct	0.75mi	3/2.0 (+1)	1,810 (+9%)	10mo	$269,800	$149	33
3 Paradise Ln	0.65mi	3/2.0 (+1)	1,887 (+14%)	17mo	$310,000	$164	24

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -18.4%
• Equity multiple: 0.35×
• Total profit: $-48,776
• Equity at exit: $40,243

10-year hold

• IRR: -10.8%
• Equity multiple: 0.35×
• Total profit: $-49,249
• Equity at exit: $23,336

Cash invested: $75,572 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 81 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Missouri: 81 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+10
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

Generally landlord-friendly; St Louis has some habitability requirements.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 63090

• Active inventory: 201
• Price-to-rent: 11.3×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,990 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,415
• Tax from tax record: −$121 /mo · $1,458/yr
• Insurance: −$112
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$418
• Net cashflow: $-78

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,088

Max offer price $256,203

Occupancy floor 99%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $75	-5% $-1	+0% $-78	+5% $-154	+10% $-230
Rent	-10% $-235	-5% $-156	+0% $-78	+5% $1	+10% $80
Rate	-1.0pp $58	-0.5pp $-9	base $-78	+0.5pp $-147	+1.0pp $-219

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $67,475
• Closing costs: $8,097
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 3 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
25 Madison Ave Washington, MO	3.0	2.0	1428	$2,450	$1.72	18d	1	0.49mi
2549 E 5th St Washington, MO	2.0–3.0	1.0–2.5	1230	$1,195	$0.97	2d	5	1.15mi
510 W 5th St Unit B Washington, MO	3.0	1.0	1200	$1,375	$1.15	44d	1	1.50mi

Listing history 17 events

1. 2026-06-21
   days on market $269,900 Active 26 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   days on market $269,900 Active 23 DOM
3. 2026-06-17
   days on market $269,900 Active 22 DOM
4. 2026-06-16
   days on market $269,900 Active 21 DOM
5. 2026-06-15
   days on market $269,900 Active 20 DOM
6. 2026-06-13
   days on market $269,900 Active 18 DOM
7. 2026-06-13
   days on market $269,900 Active 17 DOM
8. 2026-06-09
   days on market $269,900 Active 14 DOM
9. 2026-06-08
   days on market $269,900 Active 13 DOM
10. 2026-06-08
    days on market $269,900 Active 12 DOM
11. 2026-06-03
    days on market $269,900 Active 8 DOM
12. 2026-06-02
    days on market $269,900 Active 7 DOM
13. 2026-06-01
    days on market $269,900 Active 6 DOM
14. 2026-05-31
    days on market $269,900 Active 5 DOM
15. 2026-05-26
    listed $269,900 Active
16. 2014-10-31
    soldstatus
17. 1993-09-01
    soldstatus

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast MO · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $1,458 · $121/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $2,618 · $218/mo
• Expected delta: +$1,160/yr (+$97/mo · 79.6%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 5/10 Major 7 d/yr ≥108°F today · 20 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 2/10 Low 100% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 1/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 0 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $23,875
• − Mortgage interest: −$15,119
• − Property taxes: −$1,458
• − Insurance: −$1,350
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,910
• − Management: −$1,910
• − Depreciation: −$7,852
• Taxable loss: −$5,722
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$1,373
• After-tax cash flow: $443/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Washington
• NCES district ID: 2931110
• Math proficiency: 41% ▼ -3.00%
• Reading proficiency: 55% ▼ -1.00%
• Median HH income: $58,344
• Composite: 41.87/100
• National rank: #3372
• State rank: #46 of 324 in MO

Livability — Washington

• Score: 81/100
• State rank: #13
• US rank: #1373

Category grades

Amenities A+ Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime B Employment B+ Housing A+ Health & safety B+ User ratings A-

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Washington, MO
• Population (ZIP): 22,471

Population outlook (Franklin County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 103,600 people
• By 2030: 103,298 · -0.3%
• By 2040: 100,607 · -2.9%
• By 2050: 94,280 · -9.0%
• By 2075: 77,103 · -25.6%
• By 2100: 54,405 · -47.5%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (93%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 93% Two or more races 6% Hispanic / Latino 1%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 3% Romanian 3% Slovak 2%
• Foreign-born: 1% · Canada
• Languages at home: 99% English-only · German/W. Germanic 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Franklin

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+45.9) · D 26.5% · R 72.4% · Other 1.1%
• 2008→2024 swing: -33.5pp toward R · 2008: -12.4pp · 2024: -45.9pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+45.9 2020: R+43.8 2016: R+46.1 2012: R+27.9 2008: R+12.4

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -96.53%
• Current HPI: 175.3309
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 1.84%
• F500 in state: 20

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in MO)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Healthcare	1	$163B
▸Insurance	1	$21B
▸Industrial Technology	1	$17B
▸Retail	1	$16B
▸Industrial Distribution	1	$10B
▸Utilities	1	$9B

Price history

3 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-26 Listed $269,900 FSBO.com
• 2014-10-31 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records
• 1993-09-01 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records

Property tax history

+2.9%/yr

Latest (2025): $1,458 · +6.1% YoY. Source: county tax records.